# The next war: China **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 6, 2004, 1:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-war-china/253776 "2004-07-06T13:01:37Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 1\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![JohnBckWLD](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d6d6ee/32.png) [@JohnBckWLD](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnBckWLD)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2004, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-war-china/253776/61 "2004-07-08T16:48:19Z")
A war between the US and China in the near future? Doubtful. I wonder if there’s a line on such a prospect in Vegas. As plnnr & mbacko1 have pointed out: strong Sino-American economic ties preclude armed conflict between the two nations. Paul in Saudi points out neither the USA nor Red China are willing to consider war in the near to midterm and that historically wars rarely occur by accident. About a year ago, I heard an alarming (and possibly exaggerated) policy analysis from a conservative sociologist that predicts an exponential increase in Chinese military aggression over the next few decades. Since the 1970’s, The People’s Republic of China has had an unwritten [One-Child Policy](http://www.refugees.org/world/articles/women_rr99_8.htm). One negative consequence of such a policy has been an ever-increasing male to female ratio. From [Global Policy](http://www.globalpolicy.org/socecon/develop/aids/2002/04china.htm): > [@](#): > > Take, for instance, the deeply ingrained cultural preference for male children. One of the most startling demographic trends in China is the growing divide between the number of males and females born each year. The natural ratio of males to females born each year is about **105 to 100** …In 1997 it was skewed…to **120 males for every 100 females**. Figures compiled by the CIA show an imbalance that is not as great, but still dramatic: in the Chinese population aged under 15, the ratio is about 110 to 100. Even this disparity means that over the next decade some 15 million Chinese men will come of age with bleak prospects for finding female partners, let alone wives. A generation from now, they’ll be too many Chinese men and not enough women. It’s more than likely China will see an increase in male aggression and crime. The only government remedies would be:[ul][li]Overturning the one-child policy (and hoping the situation will correct itself over the next few generations)[_]Allowing multiple-husband polygamy, or [_]Thinning the surplus male population by sending them to **war**.[/ul][/li] You never know. Perhaps the [Chinese official who in 1996](http://www.cdiss.org/smt1c.htm) made a thinly veiled threat to nuke LA when he said to former Ambassador Charles Freeman: > [@](#): > > American leaders “care more about Los Angeles than they do about Taiwan.” just wasn’t getting laid and had a build up of testosterone in his bloodstream. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-war-china/253776.md?page=3)