# The odds of a smoker dying from smoking **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [February 19, 2018, 12:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-odds-of-a-smoker-dying-from-smoking/809114 "2018-02-19T12:37:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Grestarian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grestarian/32/3227_2.png) [@Grestarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grestarian)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2019, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-odds-of-a-smoker-dying-from-smoking/809114/21 "2019-05-03T22:30:06Z")
> [@Barack\_Obama](#): > > This isn’t actually addressing the OP, but could someone please inform me on whether or not there are any studies showing how smoke it’s self affects the body? > > Weed smoke and Tobacco smoke contain a lot of different chemicals, but both produce when heated a white smoke. I know not all smoke is created equally, but does smoke alone have an adverse affect on the human body? Specifically the throat and lungs? Indeed. Throw upon the bonfire the fact that, in relatively recent years, [studies have come](https://www.tnp.sg/news/singapore/cancer-cooking-wok) out showing a correlation between cooking smoke and cancer. These were being discovered because people who were non-smokers were coming do their doctors with complaints. The commonality was that they were either restauranteurs or mothers using a wok day after day after day to prepare meals. The restauranteurs usually had range hoods but, then again, they were cooking a lot more meals each day than the Moms did in a month. –G! ---
**Author:** ![Saintly\_Loser](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saintly_loser/32/4045_2.png) [@Saintly\_Loser](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saintly_Loser)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2019, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-odds-of-a-smoker-dying-from-smoking/809114/22 "2019-05-04T00:12:06Z")
I’m an ex-smoker, and still (knock wood) okay. No lung disease, no heart disease. I quit about six years ago (I’m 60 now). I went through a bunch of doctors who tried to scare me out of smoking. “Smoking will kill you tomorrow!,” etc. Yeah, didn’t work. I grew up in a family of smokers. Nobody ever got lung cancer. Nobody died before 80 (and all the exceptions were car crashes, wars, etc.). So I ignored the doctors. And then one doctor told me that smoking \*probably \*wouldn’t kill me, but it _would_, for sure, make the last ten years of my life miserable. And that convinced me. I quit. So I think it’s important to be accurate with smokers about the risks, and not exaggerate. But maybe that’s just me. ---
**Author:** ![GreysonCarlisle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a87d85/32.png) [@GreysonCarlisle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreysonCarlisle)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2019, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-odds-of-a-smoker-dying-from-smoking/809114/23 "2019-05-04T00:38:33Z")
> [@Saintly\_Loser](#): > > And then one doctor told me that smoking \*probably \*wouldn’t kill me, but it _would_, for sure, make the last ten years of my life miserable. That’s what I’ve always been told. Smoking steals your retirement. I gave up the analogs (do people still call them that?) five years ago. Vape like a goddamned chimney now. I think I’m doing better. ---
**Author:** ![Ukulele\_Ike](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/df788c/32.png) [@Ukulele\_Ike](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ukulele_Ike)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2019, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-odds-of-a-smoker-dying-from-smoking/809114/24 "2019-05-04T00:57:33Z")
It only takes TEN years off your life? Shit. I gotta start smoking MORE. ---
**Author:** ![ftg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ftg/32/2801_2.png) [@ftg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ftg)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2019, 12:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-odds-of-a-smoker-dying-from-smoking/809114/25 "2019-05-04T12:15:01Z")
> [@Ukulele\_Ike](#): > > It only takes TEN years off your life? > > Shit. I gotta start smoking MORE. Remember, it’s the wrong 10 years. You can become a ~60-year old person at age 50. And not a “good” 60-year old. You are essentially lopping off a good chunk of your middle life to get to a crappy old age sooner. ---
**Author:** ![UnwittingAmericans](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/d9b06d/32.png) [@UnwittingAmericans](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UnwittingAmericans)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2019, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-odds-of-a-smoker-dying-from-smoking/809114/26 "2019-05-04T15:33:29Z")
[http://nomograms.mskcc.org/Lung/Screening.aspx](http://nomograms.mskcc.org/Lung/Screening.aspx) ---
**Author:** ![TheCuse](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thecuse/32/2854_2.png) [@TheCuse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TheCuse)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2019, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-odds-of-a-smoker-dying-from-smoking/809114/27 "2019-05-04T15:42:22Z")
I gave up smoking after my stroke back in January. I was outside on break and smoking a cigarette and had a goddamn stroke. I had to quit when I was in the hospital and physical therapy, so I decided to quit entirely. I’m too afraid to have another stroke (and that’s the last thing I had been doing when I had it). I’m not even vaping; and I quit drinking as well (I figure if I kept drinking it would increase my desire to smoke). ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2019, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-odds-of-a-smoker-dying-from-smoking/809114/28 "2019-05-04T19:30:37Z")
> [@ftg](#): > > Remember, it’s the wrong 10 years. You can become a ~60-year old person at age 50. And not a “good” 60-year old. You are essentially lopping off a good chunk of your middle life to get to a crappy old age sooner. Thats been my impression of poor lifestyle. You’ll die younger, but mostly because you age prematurely. You look and feel 10+ years older than your actual age. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2019, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-odds-of-a-smoker-dying-from-smoking/809114/29 "2019-05-04T20:26:47Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Huh. I think it’s a good question, or maybe best as two related questions. What’s the positive predictive value (PPV) that a smoker will die relatively prematurely of a smoking related disease? And what’s the PPV that a smoker will experience smoking related increase in years spent disabled or otherwise with significantly decreased quality of life? > > Here’s [the best answer](https://www.livescience.com/3093-smoking-myths-examined.html) for the actual op I can easily gain from a quick search: > I don’t have exact numbers for the second question but my WAG is that nearly all smokers who do not die too young to do so will experience an increase in their years living with decreased quality of life and with disability - from diminished lung function, to becoming a heart cripple, to dementia. > > Clearly the majority of smokers will, relative to the general population, either die prematurely (and of those most often significantly prematurely) from a smoking related disease, or live with more years of diminished function and capacity. **Excellent post and cite**! And yes, remember as **Bill Door** sez- Smoking doesnt just chop off the last ten years of your life, so that you get 60 healthy years and drop dead, instead of 60 healthy years and ten years being old & infirm, it moves the “old & infirm” period down ten years. And there are lots of cancers, some are much worse than others in terms of detectability, pain, treatments and survivability. Skin cancer is perhaps the “best” cancer, but lung cancer is pretty much the very worst. It’s not a pleasant way to go. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2019, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-odds-of-a-smoker-dying-from-smoking/809114/30 "2019-05-04T20:29:17Z")
> [@kunilou](#): > > Not to mention the 500 or so people who die each year from [fires caused by smoking-related materials.](https://www.nfpa.org/News-and-Research/Fire-statistics-and-reports/Fire-statistics/Fire-causes/Smoking-Materials) And the 50,000 NON-smoking Americans that are murdered each year by smokers who don’t give a shit. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2019, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-odds-of-a-smoker-dying-from-smoking/809114/31 "2019-05-04T22:36:49Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Huh. I think it’s a good question, or maybe best as two related questions. What’s the positive predictive value (PPV) that a smoker will die relatively prematurely of a smoking related disease? And what’s the PPV that a smoker will experience smoking related increase in years spent disabled or otherwise with significantly decreased quality of life? > > Here’s [the best answer](https://www.livescience.com/3093-smoking-myths-examined.html) for the actual op I can easily gain from a quick search: > I don’t have exact numbers for the second question but my WAG is that nearly all smokers who do not die too young to do so will experience an increase in their years living with decreased quality of life and with disability - from diminished lung function, to becoming a heart cripple, to dementia. > > Clearly the majority of smokers will, relative to the general population, either die prematurely (and of those most often significantly prematurely) from a smoking related disease, or live with more years of diminished function and capacity. I am a non-smoker and have no dog in this hunt, but I am skeptical of results like this, which seems to indicate that 25% of all smokers die ‘before or around age 50’. Before 1970, about 50% of Canadians were smokers. There are still countries that approach 50%. If that statistic were true, about 12.5% of Canadians should have died before age 50 due to smoking. From what I can extrapolate (can’t find the exact data for that year), the number of people who died by age 50 from ALL causes (including accidents, child mortality, etc) is about 15%. I suspect that the data is somewhat overstated because doctors will often include smoking as a factor in any health-related death if the deceased was in fact a smoker. So if I would have contracted cancer anyway even if I didn’t smoke, if I’m a smoker it will be put down as at least a contributing factor, if not the entire reason, and I’d probably be counted as a ‘smoking related death’. This is not to deny that smoking is a really bad idea and can certainly kill you, but I’d be skeptical of the numbers because it’s the kind of study that could have all sorts of biases built into it merely because everyone already assumes that smoking is really bad, and it’s likely to skew everything from death certificates to research bias. But maybe I’m wrong. The numbers just looked a little larger than I would have thought. ---
**Author:** ![Charlie\_Tan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/charlie_tan/32/12582_2.png) [@Charlie\_Tan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Charlie_Tan)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2019, 11:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-odds-of-a-smoker-dying-from-smoking/809114/32 "2019-05-04T23:20:29Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Skin cancer is perhaps the “best” cancer, but lung cancer is pretty much the very worst. It’s not a pleasant way to go. Huh? Care to elaborate? ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2019, 5:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-odds-of-a-smoker-dying-from-smoking/809114/33 "2019-05-05T05:38:54Z")
> [@Charlie\_Tan](#): > > Huh? > > Care to elaborate? In some cases with skin cancer, they can just spray on a local, snip, put bandaid on, and you are out the door. Lung cancer operations are very invasive and takes a long time to recover from- if at all. > **[Lung cancer - Symptoms and causes](https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/lung-cancer/symptoms-causes/syc-20374620)** > > Learn about the symptoms, diagnosis and treatment for this deadly form of cancer. \*Lung cancer can cause complications, such as: Shortness of breath. People with lung cancer can experience shortness of breath if cancer grows to block the major airways. Lung cancer can also cause fluid to accumulate around the lungs, making it harder for the affected lung to expand fully when you inhale. Coughing up blood. Lung cancer can cause bleeding in the airway, which can cause you to cough up blood (hemoptysis). Sometimes bleeding can become severe. Treatments are available to control bleeding. Pain. Advanced lung cancer that spreads to the lining of a lung or to another area of the body, such as a bone, can cause pain. Tell your doctor if you experience pain, as many treatments are available to control pain. Fluid in the chest (pleural effusion). Lung cancer can cause fluid to accumulate in the space that surrounds the affected lung in the chest cavity (pleural space). Fluid accumulating in the chest can cause shortness of breath. Treatments are available to drain the fluid from your chest and reduce the risk that pleural effusion will occur again. Cancer that spreads to other parts of the body (metastasis). Lung cancer often spreads (metastasizes) to other parts of the body, such as the brain and the bones. Cancer that spreads can cause pain, nausea, headaches, or other signs and symptoms depending on what organ is affected. Once lung cancer has spread beyond the lungs, it’s generally not curable. Treatments are available to decrease signs and symptoms and to help you live longer.\* ---
**Author:** ![Bill\_Door](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@Bill\_Door](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bill_Door)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2019, 12:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-odds-of-a-smoker-dying-from-smoking/809114/34 "2019-05-05T12:03:20Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > I am a non-smoker and have no dog in this hunt, but I am skeptical of results like this, which seems to indicate that 25% of all smokers die ‘before or around age 50’.(snip) I think the key words here are “about” and “around”. The actual quote is > [@Livescience](#): > > about half of all smokers will die from smoking, and of these, about half will die before or around age 50. Well, what’s about half? Is 40% about half to some people? Sure, it might be. So what if it’s 40% of all smokers dying by smoking and 40% before or around fifty? Then we’re down to 16% from 25%, quite a drop. And what of that “about fifty”. Is fifty-five about fifty? By the time you account for all the weaseling words, and the fact that if someone gets hit by a lorry while smoking (it was a British study) they’ll blame it on the cigarettes the actual data may be down to 10 or 12% dying before fifty, a much more believable statistic. ---
**Author:** ![Slash1972](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slash1972/32/6461_2.png) [@Slash1972](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slash1972)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2019, 2:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-odds-of-a-smoker-dying-from-smoking/809114/35 "2019-05-06T14:07:56Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > And the 50,000 NON-smoking Americans that are murdered each year by smokers who don’t give a shit. Strange, I don’t remember murdering anybody in any year. Maybe smoking causes memory loss too? :rolleyes::rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2019, 2:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-odds-of-a-smoker-dying-from-smoking/809114/36 "2019-05-06T14:22:19Z")
> [@Slash1972](#): > > Strange, I don’t remember murdering anybody in any year. Maybe smoking causes memory loss too? :rolleyes::rolleyes: Smoker he? Well, that explains a lot. Murder is a strong word, admittedly. But smokers willfully and knowingly smoke, it’s not a accident. They do so with the full knowledge it can kill other people, especially their loved ones- kids, elders. So, what would you call it? ---
**Author:** ![UnwittingAmericans](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/d9b06d/32.png) [@UnwittingAmericans](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UnwittingAmericans)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2019, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-odds-of-a-smoker-dying-from-smoking/809114/37 "2019-05-06T18:05:53Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Smoker he? Well, that explains a lot. > > Murder is a strong word, admittedly. But smokers willfully and knowingly smoke, it’s not a accident. They do so with the full knowledge it can kill other people, especially their loved ones- kids, elders. So, what would you call it? Sweet sweet freedom. ---
**Author:** ![Slash1972](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slash1972/32/6461_2.png) [@Slash1972](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slash1972)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2019, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-odds-of-a-smoker-dying-from-smoking/809114/38 "2019-05-06T18:41:30Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Smoker he? Well, that explains a lot. > > Murder is a strong word, admittedly. But smokers willfully and knowingly smoke, it’s not a accident. They do so with the full knowledge it can kill other people, especially their loved ones- kids, elders. So, what would you call it? This sounds similar to other arguments I’ve heard…hmmmm. What do you suggest, banning cigarettes? 😉 In any event, I fail to see how me smoking on my deck kills my kids who live in another house, or elders that live in Ohio. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2019, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-odds-of-a-smoker-dying-from-smoking/809114/39 "2019-05-06T19:47:32Z")
> [@Slash1972](#): > > This sounds similar to other arguments I’ve heard…hmmmm. What do you suggest, banning cigarettes? 😉 > > In any event, I fail to see how me smoking on my deck kills my kids who live in another house, or elders that live in Ohio. Indeed, I do. Ok, then complete strangers. Or maybe \*your \*smoking doesn’t kill anyone but yourself. Still, \*\*second hand smoke kills 50000 American non-smokers a year. \*\* ---
**Author:** ![Slash1972](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slash1972/32/6461_2.png) [@Slash1972](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slash1972)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2019, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-odds-of-a-smoker-dying-from-smoking/809114/40 "2019-05-06T19:55:23Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Indeed, I do This is probably the funniest thing I’ve read in a while. > [@](#): > > Or maybe \*your \*smoking doesn’t kill anyone but yourself. Still, \*\*second hand smoke kills 50000 American non-smokers a year. > \*\* Well, they should probably stay away from smokers then. 🙂 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-odds-of-a-smoker-dying-from-smoking/809114.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-odds-of-a-smoker-dying-from-smoking/809114.md?page=3)