# The Official MLB Offseason Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [October 29, 2011, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185 "2011-10-29T14:39:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 33
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2012, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/641 "2012-03-16T20:29:42Z")
Well, you can never have too many starters, right? I can’t imagine that they will send Pineda down, they gave up too much for him to send him to the minors without giving him a shot. Hughes to the pen is more likely and still a long shot. I guess a trade is coming. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2012, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/642 "2012-03-16T23:11:04Z")
If the Yankees are actually dumb enough to send Michael Pineda to the minors, they will fully deserve the 78-84 record they’ll end up with, since that would indicate the team has gone utterly insane. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2012, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/643 "2012-03-16T23:48:42Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > If the Yankees are actually dumb enough to send Michael Pineda to the minors, they will fully deserve the 78-84 record they’ll end up with, since that would indicate the team has gone utterly insane. Except they would still win 90+ even under this scenario with the team. It is a numbers crunch and Pinedahas yet to throw like expected. If 3 games into the season he is showing no velocity yet he will end up in AAA. If he, Hughes and Pettitte are pitching great, then suddenly the veteran [Hiroki Kuroda](http://newyork.yankees.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=493133) will be available fairly cheap. It is a strange situation and about the only thing anyone can be sure of is that Freddy Garcia is available today to anyone but Boston I would guess. ---
**Author:** ![Southern\_Yankee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/southern_yankee/32/2800_2.png) [@Southern\_Yankee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Southern_Yankee)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2012, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/644 "2012-03-17T00:17:16Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > Except they would still win 90+ even under this scenario with the team. It is a numbers crunch and Pinedahas yet to throw like expected. If 3 games into the season he is showing no velocity yet he will end up in AAA. If he, Hughes and Pettitte are pitching great, then suddenly the veteran [Hiroki Kuroda](http://newyork.yankees.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=493133) will be available fairly cheap. > > It is a strange situation and about the only thing anyone can be sure of is that Freddy Garcia is available today to anyone but Boston I would guess. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Pettitte has to show he still has the stuff to start. My guess is he does, but no one will know until he shows it. I think Pineda’s spot in the rotation is safe until he has a few bad outings in the regular season. If anyone is in jeopardy to go down right now it’s Nova. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2012, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/645 "2012-03-17T00:22:21Z")
> [@Southern\_Yankee](#): > > Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Pettitte has to show he still has the stuff to start. My guess is he does, but no one will know until he shows it. I think Pineda’s spot in the rotation is safe until he has a few bad outings in the regular season. If anyone is in jeopardy to go down right now it’s Nova. Nova is pitching fine actually and has the job to lose. But the likeliest scenario is after 2-3 weeks and Andy makes the team, Hughes will have to slide to the bullpen baring a desperate team knocking on Cashman’s door with a good offer for Kuroda or a great offer for Hughes. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2012, 7:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/646 "2012-03-17T07:27:57Z")
I would really like to see Hughes get a shot at cracking the rotation, assuming he’s healthy, instead of being dicked around and moved between the pen and the starting rotation every couple of weeks. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2012, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/647 "2012-03-17T13:54:53Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > I would really like to see Hughes get a shot at cracking the rotation, assuming he’s healthy, instead of being dicked around and moved between the pen and the starting rotation every couple of weeks. I agree, in a perfect world, all three younger guys are in the rotation and it is Kuroda that gets traded away. Nothing against Kuroda but Andy is a really excellent post season pitcher and [Kuroda has a not so stellar track record really](http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kurodhi01.shtml#pitching_postseason::none). ---
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2012, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/648 "2012-03-17T14:25:02Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > I agree, in a perfect world, all three younger guys are in the rotation and it is Kuroda that gets traded away. Nothing against Kuroda but Andy is a really excellent post season pitcher and [Kuroda has a not so stellar track record really](http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kurodhi01.shtml#pitching_postseason::none). Unless you are looking at Wins that page says to me that Kuroda is a solid #3. If you can call a #3 pitcher a stud, then he is a stud #3. Having watched the Dodgers I will tell you that looking at Kuroda’s wins record isn’t fair as he has had \*no \*run support. Not everyone can be Kershaw and hold every team to under 2 runs scored. A lot of Kuroda’s losses came with a score of 2-0 or 3-1. Looking at the page you will see that the past season his own team has averaged less than 3.5 runs scored per game in run support. That’s crazy low and not a problem he will have with the Yankees. Kuroda is older, so regression is always possible, but in the time he has been in LA he has always been a solid pitcher who can go consitantly into the 6th or 7th inning, not give up many runs, not walk many guys, and not get hurt. He has been massively unlucky with his W/L record. If this was LA I would rather have Kuroda starting than Pettitte. Once upon a time Pettite was the better pitcher, but right now who knows? In fact, given the choice it wouldn’t even be close, I would take Kuroda back in a heartbeat and Pettitte is nothing but concern. Pettitte is older, injury prone, hasn’t played in a year, and stopped playing because the grind of a season was more than he could take. He may be great in the post season, but will he make it there? Now, I wouldn’t take Kuroda over some of the younger high upside guys on the Yankees, but picking between the two older pitchers playing in what is probably their last season of baseball, I am taking Kuroda every single time. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2012, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/649 "2012-03-17T14:30:30Z")
> [@NAF1138](#): > > Unless you are looking at Wins that page says to me that Kuroda is a solid #3. If you can call a #3 pitcher a stud, then he is a stud #3. Having watched the Dodgers I will tell you that looking at Kuroda’s wins record isn’t fair as he has had \*no \*run support. Not everyone can be Kershaw and hold every team to under 2 runs scored. A lot of Kuroda’s losses came with a score of 2-0 or 3-1. Looking at the page you will see that the past season his own team has averaged less than 3.5 runs scored per game in run support. That’s crazy low and not a problem he will have with the Yankees. > > Kuroda is older, so regression is always possible, but in the time he has been in LA he has always been a solid pitcher who can go consitantly into the 6th or 7th inning, not give up many runs, not walk many guys, and not get hurt. He has been massively unlucky with his W/L record. If this was LA I would rather have Kuroda starting than Pettitte. Once upon a time Pettite was the better pitcher, but right now who knows? In fact, given the choice it wouldn’t even be close, I would take Kuroda back in a heartbeat and Pettitte is nothing but concern. Pettitte is older, injury prone, hasn’t played in a year, and stopped playing because the grind of a season was more than he could take. He may be great in the post season, but will he make it there? Now, I wouldn’t take Kuroda over some of the younger high upside guys on the Yankees, but picking between the two older pitchers playing in what is probably their last season of baseball, I am taking Kuroda every single time. I was talking only about his\*\* post-season\*\* record vs. Andy Pettitte. He is a solid 3 for the Yanks right now though with any luck he’ll drop to 4 or 5 as the younger pitchers do great. ---
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2012, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/650 "2012-03-17T14:42:15Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > I was talking only about his\*\* post-season\*\* record vs. Andy Pettitte. He is a solid 3 for the Yanks right now though with any luck he’ll drop to 4 or 5 as the younger pitchers do great. Ah, well then I stand by my point of not being sure that Pettitte can make it to the post season anymore. Beyond that I have no opinion. The young arms all have a way higher ceiling than Kuroda, if even one lives up to their potential things should be fine no matter who they go with . ---
**Author:** ![BlankSlate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blankslate/32/80_2.png) [@BlankSlate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlankSlate)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2012, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/651 "2012-03-18T00:04:29Z")
I’m not sure how they should order the rotation, assuming they all stay healthy, which probably won’t be the case for the whole season. They need a long reliever, which probably suits Hughes or Garcia best. Pineda will have an innings limit, so he fits as the fifth starter with the occasionally skipped turn. That still leaves one too many. I didn’t want Pettitte to retire but now I’m not sure if this is a good thing. Id like to have Hughes, Nova and Pineda starting the whole year…it could be the beginning of a great young pitching staff, especially if Banuelos and Betances develop as hoped. ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2012, 12:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/652 "2012-03-18T00:51:16Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > 7 starters again. Any team in need of a cheap starter, you can get Garcia for an ‘A’ level prospect at this point I would guess. > > This will push [Phil Hughes](http://newyork.yankees.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=461833) and [Michael Pineda](http://newyork.yankees.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=501381). It is insane to think that Hughes could end up in the bullpen or Pineda in AAA. You could probably have for a C+ prospect at this point. > [@What\_Exit](#): > > I was talking only about his\*\* post-season\*\* record vs. Andy Pettitte. He is a solid 3 for the Yanks right now though with any luck he’ll drop to 4 or 5 as the younger pitchers do great. Are you really considering 3 post season starts, one of which was poor, as evidence of something? ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2012, 12:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/653 "2012-03-18T00:52:15Z")
> [@Hawkeyeop](#): > > Are you really considering 3 post season starts, one of which was poor, as evidence of something? No, I am considering Andy Pettitte’s postseason record of something great. ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2012, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/654 "2012-03-18T00:55:04Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > No, I am considering Andy Pettitte’s postseason record of something great. Pettitte had an era of 3.88 in the regular season and 3.83 in the postseason. He is pretty much the same pitcher all year round. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2012, 1:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/655 "2012-03-18T01:03:55Z")
> [@Hawkeyeop](#): > > Pettitte had an era of 3.88 in the regular season and 3.83 in the postseason. He is pretty much the same pitcher all year round. Really, 19-10 with a 3.83 ERA is not good enough for you? I know wins are over-rated, even in the post-season. What a load of shit. Do you really think Kuroda compares to Andy in the post season. Andy has had a very good season in post season play against the best teams. He’s thrown some clunkers but also some of the great games in post-season history. He gives his team a good chance to win most of the time. ---
**Author:** ![mhendo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mhendo/32/3159_2.png) [@mhendo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mhendo)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2012, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/656 "2012-03-18T01:24:54Z")
**What Exit?** , i don’t think that anyone’s denying that Pettite has had some excellent postseason games. Nor is anyone denying that, overall, he’s been a pretty damned decent postseason pitcher. But you said, specifically: > [@What\_Exit](#): > > I agree, in a perfect world, all three younger guys are in the rotation and it is Kuroda that gets traded away. Nothing against Kuroda but Andy is a really excellent post season pitcher and [Kuroda has a not so stellar track record really](http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kurodhi01.shtml#pitching_postseason::none). That is, you linked directly to Kuroda’s postseason stats, and described them as a “not so stellar track record.” That certainly suggests that you think that those 3 games can actually tell us something meaningful about Kuroda’s postseason potential going forward, compared to Pettite. Also, while stats can tell us quite a bit about a player’s past, they are more limited in some ways in their ability to tell us about his future, especially as he gets older. When a player gets to 40, it’s not really appropriate to look at his whole career stats and make an argument for his future performance, especially when he’s just had a full year out of baseball altogether. Pettite turns 40 in June, and hasn’t thrown a major league pitch in almost 18 months. Kuroda just turned 37, and pitched all last year with an ERA of 3.07, a WHIP of 1.213, and an ERA+ of 121, the best of his MLB career. None of this guarantees, of course, that Kuroda will perform better for the Yankees than Pettite this year. Kuroda might fall away; Pettite could have the greatest comeback since Lazarus. But when a guy comes back from retirement at age 40, it’s not really enough to say that is “a really excellent post season pitcher.” He **was** , but he may not be again. And it’s not at all realistic to judge the other guy based on a total of 13.2 postseason innings. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2012, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/657 "2012-03-18T01:32:57Z")
I think it is pretty simple, I would trust Andy (assuming he is pitching well this year which is yet to be determined) far more then an unproven also older pitcher in the post season. I think Andy is an excellent post-season pitcher and Kuroda is effectively no bet at all. ---
**Author:** ![mhendo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mhendo/32/3159_2.png) [@mhendo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mhendo)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2012, 1:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/658 "2012-03-18T01:42:16Z")
Dude, i’d trust him if he’s pitching well, too. But that begs the very questions that all this is about: will he pitch well at age 40 after a year off, and will he be better than the guy who is three years younger and who had a good season in 2011? Until we find that out, it’s pretty silly to make arguments like: > [@What\_Exit](#): > > I agree, in a perfect world, all three younger guys are in the rotation and it is Kuroda that gets traded away. But if Pettite ends up being useless, and Kuroda has a great year, then the “perfect world” for the Yankees will be to keep the guy who is, you know, actually pitching well, not the guy that you “trust” based on things he did years ago. > [@What\_Exit](#): > > Nothing against Kuroda but Andy is a really excellent post season pitcher and [Kuroda has a not so stellar track record really](http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kurodhi01.shtml#pitching_postseason::none). It’s worth noting, by the way, that Kuroda’s “not so stellar” postseason record actually consists of 2 quality starts and 2 wins with an ERA of 1.46 in those two games, plus 1 really bad inning in the third game. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2012, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/659 "2012-03-18T01:47:51Z")
> [@mhendo](#): > > Dude, i’d trust him if he’s pitching well, too. But that begs the very questions that all this is about: will he pitch well at age 40 after a year off, and will he be better than the guy who is three years younger and who had a good season in 2011? > > Until we find that out, it’s pretty silly to make arguments like:But if Pettite ends up being useless, and Kuroda has a great year, then the “perfect world” for the Yankees will be to keep the guy who is, you know, actually pitching well, not the guy that you “trust” based on things he did years ago. It’s worth noting, by the way, that Kuroda’s “not so stellar” postseason record actually consists of 2 quality starts and 2 wins with an ERA of 1.46 in those two games, plus 1 really bad inning in the third game. A perfect world does not mean trading Kuroda away now but after the young guys and Andy show something. Why are we arguing over this? It is silly. Also we both know Kuroda’s record is not much to go by. I have no faith he will be good in the post season and he is a one year rental to hold a spot for yet another kid pitcher with any luck at all. ---
**Author:** ![mhendo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mhendo/32/3159_2.png) [@mhendo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mhendo)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2012, 1:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/660 "2012-03-18T01:51:58Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > I have no faith he will be good in the post season… Fair enough. There’s probably not much point us arguing about this then, because i’m not talking about faith. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185.md?page=32) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185.md?page=34)