# The Official MLB Offseason Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [October 29, 2011, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185 "2011-10-29T14:39:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2011, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/61 "2011-11-01T22:36:07Z")
I don’t see a problem with the Sabathia extension, either. Yes, he’s expensive; yes, he’ll decline. But the Yankees have far, far more money than they do solid starting pitchers. They’re exchanging something they have a lot of for something they have little of. And Sabathia’s a hel of a pitcher. He’s been a regular starting pitcher for eleven years and has never had a bad year. He pitches 230 innings a year and pitches great year in and year out. His last 5 years by ERA+: 141 157 137 136 147 In that span of time is LOWEST innings number is 230. The Yankees don’t really care all that much what happens in 5 years; they need an elite starter next year, and Sabathia is as good a bet as anyone. ---
**Author:** ![MOIDALIZE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e274bd/32.png) [@MOIDALIZE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MOIDALIZE)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2011, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/62 "2011-11-01T22:41:07Z")
That Sabathia deal represents what is the biggest advantage for the big market teams: they can afford to eat the last couple years of a contract when the player’s performance declines. The other shoe rarely drops for a team like the Yankees. ---
**Author:** ![BlankSlate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blankslate/32/80_2.png) [@BlankSlate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlankSlate)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2011, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/63 "2011-11-02T00:42:43Z")
Was the ‘Houston Astros moving to the AL’ thing a whoosh? If not, how on earth would scheduling work with 15 teams in each league? ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2011, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/64 "2011-11-02T00:56:57Z")
No, that’s for real. Instead of all the interleague play being confined to a couple of weeks, a few games would be played daily throughout the season. ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2011, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/65 "2011-11-02T01:05:11Z")
> [@RetroVertigo](#): > > I think the Rangers will be the most interesting team to watch this off-season. With their new huge TV deal they will have the money to start going after some big free agents. Yup. They probably want pitching, but they have a hole at first and there are some mighty tempting free agents. Imagine adding a Fielder or Pujols in that lineup. > [@wheresgeorge04](#): > > I am very happy that the Giants re-signed Lopez and picked up Affeldt’s option. I would think a team with starting pitching that good and offense that bad would have different priorities. There three best hitters might all end up being first basemen, so they probably shouldn’t get Fielder/Pujols, but Reyes would be a fantastic fit. > [@gonzomax](#): > > Not the point at all. Will they be able to spend a lot more without hurting team chemistry. It is not that easy. Otherwise the Yanks would win every year. Is there something about cheap players that make them good chemists? > [@mhendo](#): > > The thing is, though, that in a truly competitive economic environment, the teams that make these big deals will probably suffer in the long run as they get saddled with expensive contracts tied to players with declining production. This should, in theory, cut into the amount of money those teams have available, and leave them with an aging, expensive uncompetitive team. In such a market, you could make an investment in a big-name free agent, but you would also have to accept that this might make your team weaker five of six years down the track, and allow other teams to challenge your domination. > > The problem, though, is highlighted in **Jas09** ’s question. A few teams are willing to throw the big money at the free agents and then down the road, essentially write off that money when the player’s performance declines and spend more money again on the next round of big-name players. Essentially, a team like the Yankees doesn’t really suffer much long-term downside to its short-term decisions, because (so far at least) the team has shown a willingness to just keep spending more and more money. > > The free market (such as it is in baseball) doesn’t really work, because even with revenue sharing and luxury taxes, not all teams share the same ability to just throw money at the problem. This is a true an extent, but misses a couple of key points. One is team revenue is not static. With the possible exception of Tampa, winning is a huge revenue generator. Thus if Pujols brings a team a championship or two to a team, he will pay for the back end of his deal himself regardless of later performance. The Phillies and Brewers are good recent examples of how winning spurs the ability to spend. Secondly, most teams can sign nearly all their homegrown free agents that they want to. In fact most star players reup with their team before even hitting free agency, regardless of what team they are on. It is rare for more than a couple to hit free agencies limiting teams from buying a pennant on the market no matter what they can spend. This year, for example, there are five free agents of real significance. Two are from the Rangers and Mets who obviously can afford to keep the respective players. One is Japanese, so not leaving anyone . Pujols might move on, but the general expectation is that he will not. That leaves only Fielder as a guy who could be considered as moving on because the Brewers can’t afford him. Even then the Brewers were able to lock up there best player long term, while Fielder is more than likely not to age gracefully. ---
**Author:** ![Yookeroo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/yookeroo/32/323_2.png) [@Yookeroo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Yookeroo)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2011, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/66 "2011-11-02T01:30:36Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > Not the point at all. Will they be able to spend a lot more without hurting team chemistry. It is not that easy. Otherwise the Yanks would win every year. The Yankees do win every year. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2011, 2:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/67 "2011-11-02T02:46:50Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Indeed. Going back to my formative years as a baseball fan, anyone remember the ‘chemistry’ on the 1977-78 Yankees, or even more so, the 1972-73-74 Oakland A’s? Extremely true. > [@gonzomax](#): > > The Yankees were kind enough to prove my point. They gave a 31 year old pitcher, CC, a 5 year contract. They will be paying him a lot as his value drops. Your nuts, the contract was a one year extension. He already had 4 of the 5 years. It was a good deal for both side and what I expected (as I said early in the thread in fact.) Yanks have good chemistry. The just did not get hits out of three vital hitters. Overall they were one starting pitcher short but got a bonus win in an AJ start anyway. If A-Rod, Teix or Swish had hit, Detroit would not have advanced. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2011, 3:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/68 "2011-11-02T03:26:55Z")
> [@kunilou](#): > > Old pitching beats old hitting? Old pitching gets to be bad pitching. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2011, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/69 "2011-11-02T03:41:57Z")
I suppose T.o is an example of how a team can be poisoned by attitude and ego. [http://www.ecappermall.com/baseball-betting-team-chemistry-mike-scioscia-jose-guillen-terrell-owens-scott-podsednik-mark-teixiera-bobby-abreau-billy-beane](http://www.ecappermall.com/baseball-betting-team-chemistry-mike-scioscia-jose-guillen-terrell-owens-scott-podsednik-mark-teixiera-bobby-abreau-billy-beane) Here’s a gambler who takes it in consideration. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2011, 3:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/70 "2011-11-02T03:44:35Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > Extremely true. > Your nuts, the contract was a one year extension. He already had 4 of the 5 years. It was a good deal for both side and what I expected (as I said early in the thread in fact.) > > Yanks have good chemistry. The just did not get hits out of three vital hitters. Overall they were one starting pitcher short but got a bonus win in an AJ start anyway. If A-Rod, Teix or Swish had hit, Detroit would not have advanced. It is 2011 and he is signed to 2016. Isn’t that 5 years? ---
**Author:** ![mhendo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mhendo/32/3159_2.png) [@mhendo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mhendo)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2011, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/71 "2011-11-02T03:55:56Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > Not the point at all. Will they be able to spend a lot more without hurting team chemistry. It is not that easy. Otherwise the Yanks would win every year. As **Yookeroo** notes, they do win pretty much every year. How many times have the Yankees missed the playoffs since the mid-1990s? Exactly once. The playoffs are a crapshoot. It’s very easy for a five- and even a seven-game series to turn on a bit of luck, or an outstanding performance by one or two players. The results of the short series aren’t a good measure of a team’s overall quality. Billy Beane understands that; as he said to Michael Lewis, “My shit doesn’t work in the playoffs.” There’s too much luck. The measure of a good team is a team that does well over a long season, where the overall quality of the team is able to overshadow the day-to-day vagaries of luck. Luck evens out over time, and the good teams rise to the top and make the playoffs. Of course, you know all this. Less than a month ago, you said: > [@MLB: The Playoffs](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-the-playoffs/598185/105): > > Its over the top to suggest they can even predict a series. The first ones are 5 games. They are less predictable. The world series is better but that is still too small a sample to decide the best team. > > \ > > A season is a far better sample, but how often are the baseball geniuses wrong about them? If you recognize that the regular season is a better measure of team quality, and that the playoffs are a crapshoot, you should also recognize that, by the best measure we have, the Yankees do win just about every year. ---
**Author:** ![Carmady](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f04885/32.png) [@Carmady](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Carmady)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2011, 4:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/72 "2011-11-02T04:10:15Z")
> [@mhendo](#): > > If you recognize that the regular season is a better measure of team quality, and that the playoffs are a crapshoot, you should also recognize that, by the best measure we have, the Yankees do win just about every year. The regular season is a better measure of team quality overall, but I do think there is something to individual matchups. Remember, we have regular season games to add to the sample. Phillies vs Cardinals in 2011: 5-9 Phillies vs Giants in 2010: 5-7 Yankees vs Tigers in 2011: 5-7 Yankees vs Rangers in 2010: 6-8 ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2011, 4:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/73 "2011-11-02T04:20:53Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > It is 2011 and he is signed to 2016. Isn’t that 5 years? **What Exit?** is saying that the original version of Sabathia’s contract had four seasons left. The contract extension adds one year plus a vesting option for one more year (or they can buy him out). ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2011, 12:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/74 "2011-11-02T12:26:21Z")
McCourt is forced to sell the Dodgers! [Huzzah](http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/11/02/report-frank-mccourt-agrees-to-sell-dodgers/related/)! ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2011, 2:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/75 "2011-11-02T14:15:07Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > It is 2011 and he is signed to 2016. Isn’t that 5 years? Adding one year to a contract that had 4 years left is all that happened. Also an option year after that with a vesting clause. If you think that is a bad deal for the Yanks to avoid losing their ace, well so be it. I think it was a very good deal consider where the Yanks would be if he did leave. ---
**Author:** ![mhendo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mhendo/32/3159_2.png) [@mhendo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mhendo)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2011, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/76 "2011-11-02T15:54:14Z")
> [@Hawkeyeop](#): > > This is a true an extent, but misses a couple of key points. One is team revenue is not static. With the possible exception of Tampa, winning is a huge revenue generator. This is a fair point. One issue though, is that there is a reasonably narrow band in which extra wins account for dramatically increased revenue. Outside that band, an extra win doesn’t help so much. For fairly understandable reasons, the sweet spot is in the high-80s and low-90s number of wins. Improving from 69 wins to 78 won’t increase revenue a huge deal, and neither will improving from 94 to 102. Then, of course there’s the extra revenue gained from making the playoffs, with even more from wining the LCS or the WS. And, connected to all of this is the fact that the clubs with lots of money can perennially keep themselves around the sweet spot, and are perennially in contention for playoff spots. Success and money beget more success and more money, allowing them to be much more certain of their large revenue flows over extended periods. And the Yankees are the top-end outlier here with their massive market, TV station, etc. They can risk not only a few bad years on the end of a contract, they can risk a few bad years for multiple free agents at a time. Most other teams just aren’t in the same situation. ---
**Author:** ![Asimovian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asimovian/32/172_2.png) [@Asimovian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Asimovian)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2011, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/77 "2011-11-02T16:32:23Z")
> [@silenus](#): > > McCourt is forced to sell the Dodgers! [Huzzah](http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/11/02/report-frank-mccourt-agrees-to-sell-dodgers/related/)! Best news I’ve heard all decade. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2011, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/78 "2011-11-02T16:39:43Z")
McCourt bought them for 430 mill and wants a mere billion. I am sure he will share the profits with the players and the union. ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2011, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/79 "2011-11-02T17:03:23Z")
What he wants and what he gets are two completely different things. A bankruptcy auction could net him a buck fifty, in theory. He’ll probably end up with around $500 million. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2011, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/80 "2011-11-02T17:04:36Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > McCourt bought them for 430 mill and wants a mere billion. I am sure he will share the profits with the players and the union. Frank McCourt is doing the world a billion dollar favor by getting out of Major League Baseball. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185.md?page=5)