# The Official MLB Offseason Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [October 29, 2011, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185 "2011-10-29T14:39:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Asimovian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asimovian/32/172_2.png) [@Asimovian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Asimovian)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2011, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/121 "2011-11-14T19:53:32Z")
> [@NAF1138](#): > > [Matt Kemp is going to stay a Dodger until 2019!](http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/dodgers/2011/11/matt-kemp-on-verge-of-signing-record-contract.html) > > It’s not quite official yet, but everyone I follow is reporting it like it’s a done deal. The deal is reportedly for $160 million, which is a whole lot of money, but very much worth it for the organization on a lot of different levels. Please excuse me while I hoot and holler for a bit. 😃 😃 😃 😃 😃 ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2011, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/122 "2011-11-14T19:59:52Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > That’s a lot of money for a player that was worth 0.4 WAR in 2010. The Dodgers must really think that his 2011 season (with its .380 BABIP) is a reflection of his true talent level going forward. There’s also 2007, 2008 and 2009. Kemp’s history is not that of a replacement-level player (and BR gives him 2.4 WAR in 2010, which I believe is closer to the truth.) It’s that of a very, very good ballplayer. And he’s only 27 next year. You do not often get a chance to sign a guy at that point. ---
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2011, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/123 "2011-11-14T20:16:39Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > Is there any chance he can stay in CF for 8 years? Obviously stealing 40 bases again would help keep his value up in the $20 million range. Probably not, but he goes from an average defensive CF to a + RF defender when he does make the move. The big deal here is that everything points to (including his BABIP which is maddeningly misused for batters) 2010 being the anomaly and not the norm. He is going to be a Dodger through his entire prime and will be 35 at the end of the contract period so if he declines like most players do LA won’t necessarily be on the hook for that. Also will be the first home grown talent locked down by the Dodgers for the majority of their career since Eric Karos. Most of the players they have developed have gone off to greener pastures after arbitration (I really wish Beltre had been given a long term contract, for example), or get short contract extensions like Billingsly did. That makes this huge for the fan base. The biggest thing here is the PR for the team, and the ability for this contract to potentially raise the value of the team making it more likely a quality owner comes in and takes over after McCourt sells. ---
**Author:** ![mhendo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mhendo/32/3159_2.png) [@mhendo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mhendo)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2011, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/124 "2011-11-14T20:27:49Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > That’s a lot of money for a player that was worth 0.4 WAR in 2010. The Dodgers must really think that his 2011 season (with its .380 BABIP) is a reflection of his true talent level going forward. Interestingly, Kemp’s career BABIP as a major leaguer is closer to his 2011 mark than his 2010 mark. Overall in the majors, Kemp’s BABIP is .352, and if you exclude the aberrant 2010 figure, his career BABIP is .366. I’m no expert on BABIP, but if i remember correctly, the Baseball Prospectus guys have argued that batter BABIP is more a function of skill than pitcher BABIP, which tends to rely heavily on luck and on the quality of the fielders. If that’s true, it could be that Kemp hits in a way that is more likely to result in a hit when he puts the ball in play. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2011, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/125 "2011-11-14T20:52:59Z")
Hm, true enough. That .352 career BABIP is, I believe, tied for most in MLB with Ryan Braun (another awesome hitter). So there probably is something to the idea that good hitters have much more control over BABIP than pitchers do (an argument I’ve heard, and forgotten, at least twice now - thanks for the reminder). It certainly seems like a deal the Dodgers had to do - locking up their best player right before he (probably) wins the MVP is a great PR boost. Kemp’s top comp by age is Carlos Beltran. Beltran, starting in his age 27 season, produced 38.2 WAR. Of course, Kemp is not nearly the defensive player Beltran was, but that’s still a pretty good sign I guess. $160 million for maybe 40 WAR gives us… $4 million per win above replacement. I guess that’s the going FA rate now? Of course his second comp is Andre Dawson, who didn’t hold his value nearly as well… ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2011, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/126 "2011-11-14T22:17:58Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > The point about draft picks is a good one. And of course the marginal cost isn’t Papelbon’s whole $50 million, it’s the $6 million delta between Papelbon and Madson, who had already worked out a $44 million deal. > > You’re right about closer usage, but that just further demonstrates how this doesn’t help the Phillies in 2012. This is not a team with bullpen problems, as the evidence clearly shows, but now they’re replaced one relief ace with another, both of whom are about the same age and were about equally effective in 2011. Nothing about the bullpen is better now, unless one has reason to believe Madson is, somehow, a worse pitcher than he’s consistently bene since 2007. Had the Phillies gotten Papelbon but retained Madson, I would see the logic there; I dunno if Papelbon is worth $50 million, but that would unquestionably improve the bullpen, as having both Madson and Papelbon would be awesome no matter who closed. How often does that not work out though? Closers are now closers, it is rare they deal with what they see as a demotion well. ---
**Author:** ![Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/9de053/32.png) [@Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackknifed_Juggernaut)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2011, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/127 "2011-11-15T15:59:07Z")
Houston Astros fans: Welcome to the American League! [http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/story/2011-11-13/mlb-schedule-proposal-astros/51212594/1?loc=interstitialskip](http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/story/2011-11-13/mlb-schedule-proposal-astros/51212594/1?loc=interstitialskip) ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2011, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/128 "2011-11-15T16:31:14Z")
As a St. Louis Cardinals fan I wish y’all would have taken the Brewers back instead… ---
**Author:** ![Uncle\_Jocko](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uncle_jocko/32/2932_2.png) [@Uncle\_Jocko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Uncle_Jocko)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2011, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/129 "2011-11-15T16:35:39Z")
> [@Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](#): > > Houston Astros fans: Welcome to the American League! > > [http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/story/2011-11-13/mlb-schedule-proposal-astros/51212594/1?loc=interstitialskip](http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/story/2011-11-13/mlb-schedule-proposal-astros/51212594/1?loc=interstitialskip) Ugh. Well, I’m sure we’ll get used to this in time, just like we (kinda sorta) got used to the Brewers becoming a National League team. Although at least there, you had a National League history in Milwaukee with the Braves and all. Interleague play every day of the season? Frankly, I say we need less interleague play. Such as, _none_. What’s wrong with having two \*separate \*leagues, with the champions meeting in the World Series? Let one league have their DH and the other league have their lower strike zone. What’s the big deal with that? Worked pretty well for about a hundred years or so, I thought. Now excuse me, while I go yell at these kids on my lawn. Hey, what’s that cloud doing passing by? Curse you, cloud! ---
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2011, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/130 "2011-11-15T16:56:27Z")
Grumble. Interleague play is just about the worst thing in baseball after the DH rule. I get why they want it, it makes lots of money, but as a fan I hate it. ---
**Author:** ![MOIDALIZE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e274bd/32.png) [@MOIDALIZE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MOIDALIZE)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2011, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/131 "2011-11-15T17:05:12Z")
Yeah, god forbid all the teams in the league play each other. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2011, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/132 "2011-11-15T17:06:16Z")
> [@NAF1138](#): > > Grumble. > > Interleague play is just about the worst thing in baseball after the DH rule. I get why they want it, it makes lots of money, but as a fan I hate it. Love them both. I in an American league city got to see Pete Rose and Barry Bonds play. I see the National League Teams play that would have been on a Tv channel that probably isn’t even carried in my city. I hated pitchers batting. The teams pitched around the number 8 batter to get to the pitcher at 9. Two dead spots. Then if a pitcher got on 'he ran bases badly so he negated the skills of the leadoff hitter. ---
**Author:** ![Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/9de053/32.png) [@Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackknifed_Juggernaut)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2011, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/133 "2011-11-15T17:09:47Z")
I don’t mind at all. I can coordinate my annual week-long visit to my parents in Houston with a Yankee series down there! The AL “West” will now include 2 Texas teams. Of course, now the Rangers and Astros won’t have any “geographic rival” for inter-league games. ---
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2011, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/134 "2011-11-15T17:15:19Z")
> [@MOIDALIZE](#): > > Yeah, god forbid all the teams in the league play each other. EXACTLY! Let the AL and NL play each other every day. Make them exhibition games that count only toward home field advantage for the World Series. Or something. I get that I am a fuddy duddy, but dammit the leagues actually being separate and distinct entities is one of the cooler things about baseball. I know that the reality of that has been dead for a while, but I enjoy the fiction. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2011, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/135 "2011-11-15T17:17:43Z")
> [@NAF1138](#): > > Let the AL and NL play each other every day. Make them exhibition games that count only toward home field advantage for the World Series. Or something. Congratulations on thinking up something that’s worse than the All-Star Game deciding home field advantage. 😉 I have no problem with interleague play regardless of how it’s scheduled, and I think moving one team to the AL to make the scheduling fair is a good idea that’s long overdue. ---
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2011, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/136 "2011-11-15T18:16:03Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > Congratulations on thinking up something that’s worse than the All-Star Game deciding home field advantage. 😉 Thank you! It wasn’t easy. ---
**Author:** ![Southern\_Yankee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/southern_yankee/32/2800_2.png) [@Southern\_Yankee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Southern_Yankee)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2011, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/137 "2011-11-15T19:36:22Z")
No surprise here, but congrats to Justin Verlander for being the unanimous choice for AL CY. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2011, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/138 "2011-11-15T19:37:48Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > Love them both. I in an American league city got to see Pete Rose and Barry Bonds play. You got to see Pete Rose play an interleague game, did you? ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2011, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/139 "2011-11-15T20:34:31Z")
I’m not a fan of interleague play, so I am not a fan of this. I don’t mind the DH, watching pitchers hit really isn’t that exciting, I wouldn’t be sad if it disappeared, but I don’t mind it at all. It has been nearly 40 years now since Ron Bloomberg walked, it is probably timed to stop griping about the DH. To me interleague is much newer and I think it is a failure. Of course I also hate the idea of another round of baseball. Just penalize the WC team by giving them only game 3 at home. ---
**Author:** ![Carmady](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f04885/32.png) [@Carmady](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Carmady)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2011, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185/140 "2011-11-15T21:15:50Z")
I’m no fan of interleague play, but it isn’t the worst thing in the world. If another wild card is added, that will genuinely reduce my interest in MLB. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-mlb-offseason-thread/601185.md?page=8)