# The Official Predict the Presidential Election thread! **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [October 31, 2008, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-predict-the-presidential-election-thread/470485 "2008-10-31T19:55:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 19\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Unix\_Geek](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/unix_geek/32/19368_2.png) [@Unix\_Geek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Unix_Geek)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2008, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-predict-the-presidential-election-thread/470485/21 "2008-11-01T02:08:01Z")
> [@autz](#): > > To answer my own OP: > > 1. Obama > > 2. 353 electoral votes > > 3. 53% > > 4. Obama wins Florida, Ohio, N. Carolina > > 5. No This is almost my prediction, but #3 will only be 52.2% ---
**Author:** ![Oakminster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/77aa72/32.png) [@Oakminster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oakminster)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2008, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-predict-the-presidential-election-thread/470485/22 "2008-11-01T02:22:42Z")
1. McCain. 2. 290 3. 53% 4. All 5. PA ---
**Author:** ![Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/bc8723/32.png) [@Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fish)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2008, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-predict-the-presidential-election-thread/470485/23 "2008-11-01T17:29:44Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > :eek::eek::eek: 410? **Fish** , step slowly away from the Crack pipe. šŸ˜ƒ ā€¦umm, Iā€™ll take some of whatever Fish is having please. Hey, somebodyā€™s got to be the outlier. Besides, I have a feeling that the polls arenā€™t adequately accounting for increased turnout among certain demographics. Republicans arenā€™t enthusiastic about McCain, and Hispanics and blacks love Obama. It could make a difference in certain key locations. šŸ™‚ ---
**Author:** ![Kyla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/eada6e/32.png) [@Kyla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kyla)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2008, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-predict-the-presidential-election-thread/470485/24 "2008-11-01T17:51:35Z")
**1. Who do you think will win the election?** Obama/Biden **2. How many electoral votes do you think the winner will have?** 395. **3. What percent of the popular vote do you think the winner will get?** 57% **4. Which of the following battleground states do you think the winner will pick up?** a. Florida b. North Carolina e. Ohio **5. Are there any states that you think will be a big shocker and go in a direction not widely believed possible?** No, thereā€™s too much polling going on for anything really shocking to happen. ---
**Author:** ![jackdavinci](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackdavinci/32/3259_2.png) [@jackdavinci](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jackdavinci)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2008, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-predict-the-presidential-election-thread/470485/25 "2008-11-01T19:01:34Z")
1. Obama will win, yay! 2. Heā€™ll get at least 300, maybe 350 3. Maybe 52-56% 4. Florida - Mc Cain North Carolina - Obama Missouri - McCain Indiana - McCain Ohio - Obama 5. Are there any states that you think will be a big shocker and go in a direction not widely believed possible? I think there will be issues in Florida again. ---
**Author:** ![Skald\_the\_Rhymer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Skald\_the\_Rhymer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skald_the_Rhymer)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2008, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-predict-the-presidential-election-thread/470485/26 "2008-11-01T19:08:13Z")
1. Who do you think will win the election? Senator McCain :(:(ā˜¹ 2. How many electoral votes do you think the winner will have? 280 or thereabouts 3. What percent of the popular vote do you think the winner will get? Dead on at 50% ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2008, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-predict-the-presidential-election-thread/470485/27 "2008-11-01T22:40:46Z")
> [@Kyla](#): > > **1. Who do you think will win the election?** Obama/Biden > > **2. How many electoral votes do you think the winner will have?** 395. > > **3. What percent of the popular vote do you think the winner will get?** 57% > > **4. Which of the following battleground states do you think the winner will pick up?** > a. Florida > b. North Carolina > e. Ohio > > **5. Are there any states that you think will be a big shocker and go in a direction not widely believed possible?** > No, thereā€™s too much polling going on for anything really shocking to happen. So, youā€™re saying that Obama will hit 395 EV, without Indiana or Missouri, and without any long-shot states? Where is he picking up all of those votes, then? ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2008, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-predict-the-presidential-election-thread/470485/28 "2008-11-01T23:21:29Z")
Iā€™ll take Obama with 353, scoring all the ā€œbattlegroundsā€ except Indiana and Missouri (and the various longshots mentioned of late such as North Dakota and Georgia). ---
**Author:** ![jimmmy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/73ab20/32.png) [@jimmmy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jimmmy)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2008, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-predict-the-presidential-election-thread/470485/29 "2008-11-01T23:31:36Z")
1. Who do you think will win the election? **Obama** 2. How many electoral votes do you think the winner will have? **353** 3. What percent of the popular vote do you think the winner will get? **56.6%** 4. Which of the following battleground states do you think the winner will pick up? a. Florida b. North Carolina e. Ohio 5. Are there any states that you think will be a big shocker and go in a direction not widely believed possible? No. Because I would not be big shocked if PA went for McCain or NC or GA went for Obama ---
**Author:** ![Kyla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/eada6e/32.png) [@Kyla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kyla)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2008, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-predict-the-presidential-election-thread/470485/30 "2008-11-02T00:02:42Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > So, youā€™re saying that Obama will hit 395 EV, without Indiana or Missouri, and without any long-shot states? Where is he picking up all of those votes, then? I arrived at that number by going to realclearpolitics and playing around with their electoral map. I didnā€™t do anything particularly radical - I looked at the polling numbers for the tossups and picked a color based on them. Of the battlegrounds, I have FL, OH, PA, NC, VA, NM, CO, and NV going blue, and GA, IN, MT, ND, and MO going red. Final tally is 395-249 for Obama/Biden. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2008, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-predict-the-presidential-election-thread/470485/31 "2008-11-02T12:53:38Z")
> [@Kyla](#): > > Final tally is 395-249 for Obama/Biden. Something is wrong with the numbers. There are only 538 electoral votes. You have 644.. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2008, 12:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-predict-the-presidential-election-thread/470485/32 "2008-11-02T12:58:31Z")
> [@jtgain](#): > > 1. Obama > 2. 343 > 3. 53% > 4. All of these > 5. Obama wins WV 1. I didnā€™t see IN in that list. McCain holds that. ---
**Author:** ![Kyla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/eada6e/32.png) [@Kyla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kyla)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2008, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-predict-the-presidential-election-thread/470485/33 "2008-11-02T17:20:30Z")
> [@jtgain](#): > > Something is wrong with the numbers. There are only 538 electoral votes. You have 644.. Hm, youā€™re right. I didnā€™t think too critically about this, obviously, I just copied what realclearpolitics gave me. Okay, I just redid it and came up with a totally different answer (apparently their software is functioning better today) and after adding it up to make sure the math makes sense, my answer is: 353-185 Obama. ---
**Author:** ![DMark](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e68b1a/32.png) [@DMark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMark)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2008, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-predict-the-presidential-election-thread/470485/34 "2008-11-02T17:37:07Z")
I still have a nervous tic from the disaster of the last two elections, but will go out on a limb: 1. Who do you think will win the election? **Obama** 2. How many electoral votes do you think the winner will have? **Over 300**. 3. What percent of the popular vote do you think the winner will get? **Over 51%** 4. Which of the following battleground states do you think the winner will pick up? a. Florida: **Yes** , by about 3% b. North Carolina: **Yes** c. Missouri: **Yes** , but only by about 1% and called late in the evening. d. Indiana: Hopefully, but kinda doubt it so: **No**. e. Ohio: **Yes** , but surprise of surprise, there will be voting machine irregularities. f. My home state of **Nevada: Yes** 5. Are there any states that you think will be a big shocker and go in a direction not widely believed possible? **Georgia** might take longer to call than planned and I wouldnā€™t be surprised if \*\*Arizona \*\*might not be called for a couple of hours after the polls close. Obama will probably lose both states, but by very small amounts. ---
**Author:** ![Palo\_Verde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/65b543/32.png) [@Palo\_Verde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Palo_Verde)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2008, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-predict-the-presidential-election-thread/470485/35 "2008-11-03T17:11:05Z")
This is the last day to make your official prediction. Winner will be announced and gets bragging rights! ---
**Author:** ![drm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a88e57/32.png) [@drm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drm)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2008, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-predict-the-presidential-election-thread/470485/36 "2008-11-03T17:29:14Z")
1. Obama 2. Over 320 3. 53.5% 4. a. Florida b. North Carolina c. Missouri e. Ohio 5. You heard it here first, Obama takes NY! In other words, No. ---
**Author:** ![CaerieD](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/da6949/32.png) [@CaerieD](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaerieD)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2008, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-predict-the-presidential-election-thread/470485/37 "2008-11-03T17:46:09Z")
1. **Obama.** 2. **305.** 3. **51%** 4. **Florida** (and I also agree that heā€™s going to nab **Nevada** , even if it wasnā€™t on this list). 5. **No.** ---
**Author:** ![Dumbguy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/2bfe46/32.png) [@Dumbguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dumbguy)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2008, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-predict-the-presidential-election-thread/470485/38 "2008-11-03T20:02:09Z")
1. Obama 2. 325 3. 52% 4. Florida and Ohio 5. Obama takes Utah šŸ™‚ not really ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-predict-the-presidential-election-thread/470485/39 "2008-11-04T01:48:49Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > I, for one, will be eternally amazed by your seeming prescience. I remember when that thread was active. Those who didnā€™t discount you simply ignored youā€¦at first. I simply lurked, but I have to admit I thought youā€™d gone a bit barmy as well. Color me thankfully proved wrong. šŸ™‚ Probably my high point here (which means itā€™s all downhill nowā€¦) šŸ˜ƒ 1. Obama 2. 348 3. 54% 4. b/c/d/e 5. No [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-official-predict-the-presidential-election-thread/470485.md?page=1)