# The Oil Crisis **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 29, 2004, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-oil-crisis/231774 "2004-02-29T18:26:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![adamant](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/779978/32.png) [@adamant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adamant)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2004, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-oil-crisis/231774/21 "2004-03-05T15:27:08Z")
> [@Blake](#): > > Adamant it is becoming quite clear that everything you say is just baseless opinion. > > I have asked you three times in this thread alone to provide specific quotes that support what you have claimed. You are unable to provide any at all. Instead I get the same vague handwaving that it’s in a webpage somewhere. > > Adamant if that web page really had quotes that said that production will peak by 2010 you would post them. You wouldn’t just say they are in their somewhere. And I mean quotes. Not dot point headings that are later clarified at length and clearly do not mean what you believe. > > Adamant if that web page really had quotes that said that North American natural gas production has already begun to decline you would post them. You wouldn’t just say they are in their somewhere. > > Adamant you might be right in what you believe. But it would be due to luck. You clearly have not based your opinion on any evidence or facts because if you had you would be able to provide us wit references rather than handwaving. I fail to understand your point here at all. The link I provided shows a chart (which I don’t want to fool with trying to post here) that shows current and predicted oil production. The peak is quite clear from the chart. I also provide quotes from Simmons addressing the issue where he indicates his belief that peak may be RIGHT NOW if not in the near future. Again, I am not selling anything, I have no agenda here other than provinding information on what I believe to be a large problem for our society in the USA and the world in general. If these predictions are wrong (and I really hope they are) I have not seen any evidence so far that convinces me, while evidence for peak oil seems to gather by the day. Sorry if I have offended you or if clicking on a link and reading a chart somehow is hard for you, I just was offering the information that I thought pertinent. Here is a direct quote from Colin J Campbell at this site (one click away from the previous url I posted) [http://www.oilcrisis.com/campbell/Campbell\_02-3.pdf](http://www.oilcrisis.com/campbell/Campbell_02-3.pdf) quote"World demand naturally influences the rate of depletion. A Base Case Scenario might conclud e that a near absence of spare capacity in late 2000 was forcing up the price of oil. Some analysts had expected prices to rise higher, but the economy reacted more quickly than expected as it moved into recession, reducing the demand for oil, and, with it, the pressure on oil prices. But as the economy recovers, oil demand will rise in parallel until it again hits the falling ceiling of capacity, when prices will soar, re-imposing recession in a vicious circle. For these reasons, the scenario assumes that demand will be on average about flat, giving a plateau of production until the five Swing countries of the Persian Gulf are no longer able to offset the decline of the rest of the world. This threshold is expected to be reached around 2010, when these swing countries would have to produce over 20 Mb/d (million barrels a day), or about 36% of world demand. World production would then have to commence its long-term decline at the then depletion rate. The long predicted “World Hubbert Peak” would have occurred." There are dozens of further available quotes accessible from that site and from simple searches of the www. Enjoy adamant ---
**Author:** ![adamant](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/779978/32.png) [@adamant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adamant)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2004, 12:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-oil-crisis/231774/22 "2004-03-08T12:59:43Z")
Blake, Did you see my last response with a direct quote? Do you at least admit I am not making this stuff up? If these scientists are correct, the world has some planning to do in order to head of a potential crisis. Here is another interesting site with some looks at alternative energies and conservation possibilities : [http://energysavingnow.com/depletion/](http://energysavingnow.com/depletion/) Enjoy adamant ---
**Author:** ![adamant](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/779978/32.png) [@adamant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adamant)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2004, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-oil-crisis/231774/23 "2004-03-08T15:32:32Z")
[http://groups.yahoo.com/group/energyresources/message/52849](http://groups.yahoo.com/group/energyresources/message/52849) This article from Sunday’s LA Times talks about peak oil and the consequences to the global economy. The dates predected for the peak are 2015 or 2020 (depending on Asian economic growth). Best Regards adamant ---
**Author:** ![adamant](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/779978/32.png) [@adamant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adamant)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2004, 11:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-oil-crisis/231774/24 "2004-03-23T11:59:27Z")
[http://groups.yahoo.com/group/energyresources/message/54106](http://groups.yahoo.com/group/energyresources/message/54106) and [http://groups.yahoo.com/group/energyresources/message/54110](http://groups.yahoo.com/group/energyresources/message/54110) Never did hear again from you Blake, did you get to read the other replies? Thanks adamant ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2004, 12:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-oil-crisis/231774/25 "2004-03-23T12:26:45Z")
> [@toysarefun](#): > > Oil is not an infinite resource and yet you say they say that it will not just run out. > Sounds hypocritical and well…, very americanish…, no wonder your government site says we have plenty of oil… And you’re claiming to have found a contradiction, when in fact it’s your own misinterpretation. How very wherever-the-hell-you’re from-ish of you. The oil won’t abruptly disappear, but it will gradually become harder and harder to find. This will drive up its price, making alternatives more desirable, and if oil prices remain high, oil will eventually be replaced by something else. We may end up having to pay more of our wealth for energy, but civilization won’t grind to a halt. > [@](#): > > When I said I don’t care what people say I meant people just like yourself. Funny, I thought this was Great Debates, not Great Hissyfits. ---
**Author:** ![Inoshiro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/a9adbd/32.png) [@Inoshiro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inoshiro)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2004, 10:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-oil-crisis/231774/26 "2004-03-23T22:47:57Z")
> [@Bryan Ekers](#): > > And you’re claiming to have found a contradiction, when in fact it’s your own misinterpretation. How very wherever-the-hell-you’re from-ish of you. > > The oil won’t abruptly disappear, but it will gradually become harder and harder to find. This will drive up its price, making alternatives more desirable, and if oil prices remain high, oil will eventually be replaced by something else. We may end up having to pay more of our wealth for energy, but civilization won’t grind to a halt. > Funny, I thought this was Great Debates, not Great Hissyfits. **toysarefun** might be oversimplifying but I don’t think people understand fully though what it means to have the price of the most fundamental commodity in modern society escalating. Adamant’s quote from Campbell says it all. > [@](#): > > Some analysts had expected prices to rise higher, but the economy reacted more quickly than expected as it moved into recession, reducing the demand for oil, and, with it, the pressure on oil prices. But as the economy > recovers, oil demand will rise in parallel until it again hits the falling ceiling of capacity, when prices will soar, re-imposing recession in a vicious circle. Endless recessions followed by aborted recoveries and then more recession. Sounds like fun. If we get too far into this cycle before we look for alternatives there might not be the resources needed to look for and find them. I think that’s what the Peak Oil people are really saying. It’s not that the bottom will fall out one day and you will go to the pump and they will have a sign “world out of oil, sorry”. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2004, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-oil-crisis/231774/27 "2004-03-23T23:31:36Z")
As long as oil depletion is predictable there is nothing to worry about. It is easily replaced with other sources of energy. There is an inexhaustible source of oxygen and hydrogen on this planet. How it is applied to existing technology depends on when it is needed. What is most likely to affect short-term energy costs in the United States is the number of refineries available. The US is currently importing gasoline in addition to oil. Refineries are at peak production (additional oil supplies cannot be processed). What is also not taken into consideration is the desire to drive more fuel efficient cars (given a rise in prices). The gas lines in the 70’s led to a rush to buy 4 cylinder econo-boxes. With the advance of the hybrid there is a ready made market for theses cars when the next crunch hits. A bonus for this new technology is the performanc that electric motors deliver. They create almost 100% of their torque value when they begin running. I fully expect a hot rod hybrid in a few years along the lines of a Miata. ---
**Author:** ![jshore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/b5e925/32.png) [@jshore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jshore)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2004, 1:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-oil-crisis/231774/28 "2004-03-24T01:34:39Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > There is an inexhaustible source of oxygen and hydrogen on this planet. This statement is technically true but sort of besides the point. While there are vast sources of the element hydrogen in various substances, there are no great sources of hydrogen the molecule, H\_2. The hydrogen is bound up in various molecules, such as water, and it takes energy to separate it out. In fact, the laws of thermodynamics tell us that if we use energy to separate the hydrogen and oxygen (by electrolysis) and then recombine them in a fuel cell to get energy, the amount of useful energy we get back out of the fuel cell will be less than what we put in to do the electrolysis. This doesn’t mean hydrogen is useless…but it needs to be thought of more as a useful way to store energy than as simply an energy source since we will need to use some other form of energy to produce the hydrogen in a hydrogen economy. ---
**Author:** ![Inoshiro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/a9adbd/32.png) [@Inoshiro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inoshiro)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2004, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-oil-crisis/231774/29 "2004-03-24T02:34:13Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > As long as oil depletion is predictable there is nothing to worry about. It is easily replaced with other sources of energy. There is an inexhaustible source of oxygen and hydrogen on this planet. Which is locked up as water since the earth has an oxidizing atmosphere. I get so tired of hearing people pushing hydrogen as an answer to energy problems. For the last time - hydrogen is an energy transport and storage mechanism, it is NOT an energy SOURCE!\* There are no hydrogen mines closer than Jupiter! - Excepting the case of nuclear fusion which we don’t have a handle on as an energy source yet. ---
**Author:** ![adamant](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/779978/32.png) [@adamant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adamant)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2004, 11:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-oil-crisis/231774/30 "2004-03-24T11:28:13Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > What is also not taken into consideration is the desire to drive more fuel efficient cars (given a rise in prices). The gas lines in the 70’s led to a rush to buy 4 cylinder econo-boxes. With the advance of the hybrid there is a ready made market for theses cars when the next crunch hits. A bonus for this new technology is the performanc that electric motors deliver. They create almost 100% of their torque value when they begin running. I fully expect a hot rod hybrid in a few years along the lines of a Miata. What is interesting is that people are still buying huge gas guzzlers like H2’s even with gas being high. Gas prices might have to get to $3 a gallon before people start demanding better mileage. Also much of the mileage gains in the 80’s were due to legal requirements, without the laws requiring better mileage (which SUV’s are exempt from) I am not at all convinced that the econo-boxes would have been as popular. A question about refineries, why haven’t they built any more in the US (and in fact have closed several), maybe the business execs in the oil industry know that peak oil is coming and thus don’t want to spend money on something that will not be needed 20 years from now (for another example, the amount of tankers has not been taking off even with new highs in oil prices). Hydrogen as a fuel source has already been well dealt with on this thread, hydrogen can be a energy carrier and storage device, but actually is an energy drain to produce and use. This problem is not going away, and will continue to get worse. Think about it some this summer when gas gets even more expensive. adamant ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2004, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-oil-crisis/231774/31 "2004-03-24T14:50:48Z")
I wouldliek to know if the newer oilfields being found in Asia factor into the equation. For example, INDIA is making significant new finds of oil, in offshorewaters off Bombay. And, Bangladesh (the Bay of Bengal) likely contains huge oil deposits. The South China Sea is just beginning to be explored…and you have all of Siberia (largely unexplored). So, thereis probably plent ofoil left…it just means we will have to work harder to get it. Finally, oil explorationis beginning off Greenland…and the HUGE HIBERNIA Field (Newfoundland) is just coming on-line. So, oil WILLget more expensive, but plenty will still be found. ---
**Author:** ![adamant](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/779978/32.png) [@adamant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adamant)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2004, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-oil-crisis/231774/32 "2004-03-24T14:59:03Z")
> [@ralph124c](#): > > I wouldliek to know if the newer oilfields being found in Asia factor into the equation. For example, INDIA is making significant new finds of oil, in offshorewaters off Bombay. And, Bangladesh (the Bay of Bengal) likely contains huge oil deposits. The South China Sea is just beginning to be explored…and you have all of Siberia (largely unexplored). > So, thereis probably plent ofoil left…it just means we will have to work harder to get it. > Finally, oil explorationis beginning off Greenland…and the HUGE HIBERNIA Field (Newfoundland) is just coming on-line. > So, oil WILLget more expensive, but plenty will still be found. Yes, more oil remains to be found, and is being found all the time. BUT, the amount of discovery (new finds) is not as much as we are using, ie we are not finding it fast enough anymore to keep up with demand. This mostly due to the fact that the easiest to get to oil has already been found and exploited, the remaining oil (which is quite vast) is harder to find and more expensive (in energy and money) to develop and produce, and takes more time to bring to market. This all contributes (along with growth in demand over many many years) to us hitting a wall in terms of more demand than supply. This will cause lots of trouble and may already be happening depending on what really is going on with Saudi Arabia. Thanks for listening. Adamant ---
**Author:** ![antechinus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/fbc32d/32.png) [@antechinus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/antechinus)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2004, 2:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-oil-crisis/231774/33 "2004-03-25T02:54:26Z")
Well done **adamant** , It seems your evidence has successfully dispelled **Blakes** ignorance. regards, antechinus ---
**Author:** ![dal\_timgar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a88e57/32.png) [@dal\_timgar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dal_timgar)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2004, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-oil-crisis/231774/34 "2004-03-25T23:36:27Z")
So what else is new? Aren’t the poor people of the world going to blame America for wasting oil on an idiotic life style for 50 years? We need to make useless variations in cars so we can play status games with each other. See Vance Packard, THE STATUS SEEKERS, THE PYRAMID CLIMBERS, typical Roman culture. See Galbraith’s THE AFFLUENT SOCIETY. The British navy switched from steam piston engines to turbines in the early 1900’s. Would turbine-electric cars be more fuel efficient? Pistons go up, stop, go down, stop, go up, stop. How much energy is wasted in this reciprocating nonsense? Jet engines go 20,000 hours between overhauls. Before the airlines switched to turbines it was 500 hours. Of course, who can forget that idiot on the internet that keeps pointing out that the entire economics profession ignores the depreciation of durable consumer goods? Does planned obsolescence waste oil? Dal Timgar > [@sstaurus](#): > > I know this has been debated to no end, but I found a site (which I couldn’t find already posted here) and I think it’s worth everyone reading. > > [http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net](http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net) > > Scary site, and very well supported. Most of it has been seen before, but this is a really condensed version. > > Personally I’m freaked. I mean what have I got to look forward to? I’m only 19… ☹ ---
**Author:** ![Blake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/a9a28c/32.png) [@Blake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blake)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2004, 8:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-oil-crisis/231774/35 "2004-03-26T08:27:46Z")
Yes Antechinus. My ignorance that happens to coincide with the WEC, USGS, WRC and every single peak body that investigates energy use and production. If that’s ignorance then call me ignorant. OTHO we have Adamant making claims that he refuses to support no matter how often he is asked. When he does it becomes quite clear that he has misunderstood Simmons. He has been shown this in numerous threads and inevitably waltzes around with the same standard hand waving about it being in there somewhere. On the rare occasions that he does come through it inevitably transpires tha it is base don misunderstanding. Adamant is still mis-representing Simmons. That quotation does not say that world oil production will peak by 2010. But I think we can now see how he is getting yourself into trouble on this issue. Read the article again. It is clearly referring exclusively to ‘easy and cheap, commonly called Conventional’ oil. It is not in any way reflecting on production of oil overall. Simmons does then goes on to dismiss other oil sources out of hand without so much as a reference for his opinions. But I have already provided references for you which show that alternative production is not able to be casually dismissed in this way. Simmons then says that these reserves ‘are subject to their own depletion profiles, which are less readily modelled.’ Or to put it another way, he hasn’t a clue. So we have yet another source for one of your beliefs Adamant.It doesn’t say quite what you think it does. But it is close _if_ we accept Simmons’ offhand dismissal of alternatives. Now we can start working on your next assertion. Namely that North American natural gas production has already begun to decline. > [@](#): > > the amount of discovery (new finds) is not as much as we are using The USGS says exactly the opposite. But what would they know? > [@](#): > > If these scientists are correct Simmons is a banker, not a scientist. While he probably has science to support what he says he is extremely reticient to reference the actual methodology used to dismiss laternative oil for example. ---
**Author:** ![adamant](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/779978/32.png) [@adamant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adamant)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2004, 11:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-oil-crisis/231774/36 "2004-03-26T11:36:34Z")
I have been quite clear all along that the peak in oil production is for conventional, easy to get to, cheap to produce oil. There are some who predict that non-conventional oil can be ramped up as easily as turning on a spigot, but many who list the problems in that belief, the extra energy, extra capital expenditures necessary for a large scale ramp-up of nonconventional oil, etc. Again to repeat, there will be plenty of non-conventional oil out there for years to come, but the production of non-conventional oil will not be able to be ramped up (in the short term - over the next 10 years or so) as fast as the regular oil is declining, especially if Saudi Arabia is closer to peak than what has been believed (and this is the big new talking point of Simmons, in fact he is almost finished writing a book on the subject using hundreds of Saudi oil sources as the basis of his determinations). Well, oil price has been over $30 a barrell for a while now, and still nonconventional oil is only a small fraction of what is produced worldwide (and will remain a small fraction - albeit a growing fraction - for some time to come). Again, I hope you are right in how easy it will be to replace conventional oil with non-conventional, but the more I read about it, the less sanguine I am about our energy future. Here is another recent article (LA times) : [http://groups.yahoo.com/group/energyresources/message/54360](http://groups.yahoo.com/group/energyresources/message/54360) with some discussion following. Best Regards adamant ---
**Author:** ![Spectre\_of\_Pithecanthropus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spectre_of_pithecanthropus/32/12343_2.png) [@Spectre\_of\_Pithecanthropus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spectre_of_Pithecanthropus)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2004, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-oil-crisis/231774/37 "2004-03-26T20:10:27Z")
If anyone’s interested, they’re going to be talking about this very topic on “To The Point” this afternoon. So if you’re in Southern California and near a radio, you might want to tune in to 89.9 If you have fast Internet access, you can also listen from anywhere in the world via [www.kcrw.org](http://www.kcrw.org). ---
**Author:** ![toadspittle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/c0e974/32.png) [@toadspittle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/toadspittle)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2004, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-oil-crisis/231774/38 "2004-03-26T21:32:43Z")
> [@](#): > > That is not what the WEC say. They say that there is no sign of production peaking or declining within the next 30 years. > > “The world’s energy resources are adequate to meet the projected growth in energy demand. Oil resources are ample, but more reserves will need to be identified in order to meet rising oil demand to 2030. > > … > > Global crude oil refining capacity is projected to increase by an average 1.3 percent a year, reaching 121 mb/d in 2030” > [http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/w...EO2002\_1sum.pdf](http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/w...EO2002_1sum.pdf) **Blake:** Could you give us that link (or the name of the paper) again? The link is rather broken. ---
**Author:** ![Meteorshower](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/779978/32.png) [@Meteorshower](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meteorshower)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2004, 5:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-oil-crisis/231774/39 "2004-03-27T05:20:07Z")
**Blake** , I think this might satisfy your demand for sites, unless you wanted direct quotes. The direct quotes are harder to find, but if the sites below (found thanks to [ODAC](http://www.odac-info.org/)) still aren’t up to your standards, I’ll be happy to hunt for them. From [Current Concerns](http://www.currentconcerns.ch/archive/2004/01/20040118.php) > [@](#): > > According to the best estimates of a number of respected international geologists, including the French Petroleum Institute, Colorado School of Mines, Uppsala University and Petroconsultants in Geneva, the world will likely feel the impact of the peaking of most of the present large oil fields and the dramatic fall in supply by the end of this decade, **2010** , or possibly even several years sooner. From [the financial times](http://www.energycrisis.com/uk/planNow.htm) > [@](#): > > These calculations place the coming oil crunch some time between **2010** and 2015, perhaps earlier. From [the Toronto Star](http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&call_pageid=971358637177&c=Article&cid=1075245010934) > [@](#): > > The U.S. Energy Department reckons that this ``tilting point" won’t happen until 2037. Its calculation is widely criticized, with its forecasts for increases in demand dismissed as far too conservative. > > One well-known petroleum geologist, Colin Campbell, has put the tilting point at **2010** , or little more than a half-decade away. Another, Kenneth Deffeys, forecasts that it will occur this year. From [the Christian Science Monitor](http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0129/p14s01-wogi.html) > [@](#): > > “World production is flat **now** ,” says Kenneth Deffeyes, a Princeton University geology professor. From [Financial Sense](http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/powers/2004/0201.html) > [@](#): > > The first phase of the crisis, which has already arrived, will bring about price shocks. In the nearly three years since Dr. Campbell made this prediction, the world has witnessed several rounds of high oil prices. However, the onset of chronic shortages will begin around **2010** when the Middle East will be required to supply 50% of total worldwide oil production. More importantly, it is at this time the Middle East will have reached its production midpoint and will head into decline also. From [MSNBC](http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4287300/), no actual dates but the article talks about the problems with several alternatives to oil. Bonus: > [@](#): > > Goodstein, a physicist and vice-provost at the California Institute of Technology (snip) “But if you really did add 700 billion barrels to the world’s oil supply, it would delay the peak by about a decade.” From [the New York Times](http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/24/business/24OIL.html?ex=1392958800&en=dc727c73cd688914&ei=5007&partner=USERLAND) > [@](#): > > But some experts are skeptical. Edward O. Price Jr., a former top Saudi Aramco and Chevron executive and a leading United States government adviser, says he believes that Saudi Arabia can pump up to 12 million barrels a day “for a few years.” But “the world should not expect more from the Saudis,” he said. He expects global oil markets to be in short supply by **2015**. From [Common Dreams News Center](http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0301-12.htm) > [@](#): > > T he world is quickly running out of oil. In the year 2000, global production stood at 76 Million Barrels per Day (MBD). By 2020, demand is forecast to reach 112 MBD, an increase of 47%. But additions to proven reserves have virtually stopped and it is clear that pumping at present rates is unsustainable. Estimates of the date of “peak global production” vary with some experts saying it already may have occurred as early as the year **2000**. New Scientist magazine recently placed the year of peak production in **2004**. Virtually all experts believe it will almost certainly occur before the end of this decade. From [Waterloo Courier](http://www.wcfcourier.com/articles/2004/03/15/news/top_news/db6e3dc8a60ef64386256e58004e837c.txt) > [@](#): > > The geologist won’t say when that point will occur, but in his class, students learn that analysts predict world oil production will peak **this decade** , if it hasn’t already. From [Smart Money](http://www.smartmoney.com/barrons/index.cfm?Story=20040315), this (long) article also explains some problems with conventionnal oil estimates. > [@](#): > > If you do not include [the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries], we are at the peak of oil production. And if OPEC production is included, peak production is pushed out **five years** or so," says Felix Zulauf, founding partner of Switzerland’s Zulauf Asset Management and a member of the Barron’s Roundtable > > (snip) > consistent with the estimates of Colin Campbell, a 72-year-old retired geologist who believes production will peak around **2010** and the world will ultimately produce a total of 1.8 trillion barrels of oil > > (snip) > In 2000, oil production was about 77 million barrels a day, estimates Bruce Lanni, a senior analyst at A.G. Edwards & Sons. (snip) “I would argue that we have not hit peak production, but it’s right around the corner,” says Lanni, somewhere between **2010** and 2020. > > (snip) > “I think [the USGS] is just wildly optimistic,” says Michael R. Smith, technical director at EnergyFiles, a U.K.-based consulting group, who estimates peak world energy production in **2016** and 2.3 trillion barrels of total world supplies. From [SF Gate](http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2004/03/21/RESERVES.TMP) > [@](#): > > “I think we may live to see that **2000** may have been the peak,” Campbell said. “We’re hitting capacity again now – oil prices are surging. It’s reasonable to think that by **2010** , you will have a volatile period of recession, oil spikes and price shocks.” If the peak is soon, we might not be able to count on technology to save us. Could you read either [this simplified page](http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/PageTwo.html) which has a few facts on alternative forms of energy, or [this one](http://www.dieoff.org/synopsis.htm) which, if you scroll down, adresses the same issues but with pretty scientific charts? Of course, if you really don’t want to read through any of those two sites, I’ll be happy to quote some of the most pertinent points for you. You don’t have to actually believe anything you read but it might make the discussion more interesting… ---
**Author:** ![adamant](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/779978/32.png) [@adamant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adamant)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2004, 1:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-oil-crisis/231774/40 "2004-03-29T13:34:36Z")
Wonderful post Meteor! Lots of good quotes from many varied sites. More and more this story is getting out to the regular media and more and more authoritative sources are weighing in with their take on Peak Oil. I am still amazed that the issue has not become more of a political one, with both the energy bill in Congress and the presidential race. If gas continues to rise this summer (some say as high as $3 a gallon) then I expect to see more and more on this subject. Thanks! adamant [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-oil-crisis/231774.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-oil-crisis/231774.md?page=3)