# The Omicron Variant **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [November 29, 2021, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134 "2021-11-29T13:54:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2021, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/181 "2021-12-20T19:44:06Z")
> [@Treppenwitz](#): > > Is it known with any degree of certainty what proportion of the population in Gauteng have had an Omicron infection? It’s difficult to get absolute figures because many infections are asymptomatic. I don’t have any separate figures for Gauteng, but it’s probably not much different from the rest of the country. According to [this recent article](https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-12-15-covid-19-in-south-africa-its-time-to-ditch-quarantining-and-contact-tracing/): > Sero-surveys, which track antibody evidence of past Covid infection, indicate as much as three-quarters of the population (~45 million) has been infected during the first three Covid-19 waves. Vaccination rates: 31.5% of the population have received at least one dose, 26.3% fully vaccinated. Sero-positivity, including both, is probably 80-90% By comparison, The UK Office for National Statistics [estimates](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/antibodies) a sero-positivity rate of about 95% for the UK. ---
**Author:** ![eschrodinger](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschrodinger/32/122_2.png) [@eschrodinger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschrodinger)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2021, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/182 "2021-12-20T19:49:47Z")
UK has had 12 deaths from omicron so far. Hard to calculate a case fatality rate, because deaths lag infections, so it’s unclear what number of infections this correlates with. > The UK Health Security Agency said on Sunday that 12 people in Britain had died with the Omicron variant and 104 were currently in hospital with it. [https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-says-12-deaths-104-people-hospitalised-by-omicron-2021-12-20/](https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-says-12-deaths-104-people-hospitalised-by-omicron-2021-12-20/) > [@GreenWyvern](#): > > South Africa update That’s great! I hope it bears out elsewhere, too. ---
**Author:** ![si\_blakely](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d9b06d/32.png) [@si\_blakely](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/si_blakely)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2021, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/183 "2021-12-20T19:55:14Z")
There is still much we do not know about omicron. What we do know is that it is far more virulent than Delta. It is also clear that it substantially escapes antibodies against Delta (whether vaccine induced, infection induced or artificial via monoclonal antibodies). The converse is also likely - _antibodies caused by omicron infection are not necessarily going to provide ongoing and strong immunity to existing non-omicron Covid-19 strains (in the long term)_. Fortunately, it looks like the antiviral medications currently being developed and approved (particularly the Pfizer drug) will be effective. However, they will likely be too late to have much of an impact on omicron. ---
**Author:** ![Treppenwitz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/treppenwitz/32/3445_2.png) [@Treppenwitz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Treppenwitz)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2021, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/184 "2021-12-20T19:58:00Z")
OK, thanks for that. I have my fingers firmly crossed, but so far I remain cautiously optimistic. j ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2021, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/185 "2021-12-20T20:16:38Z")
> [@Jay\_Z](#): > > I don’t think a less deadly virus is actually going to kill/hospitalize more people over time. The statement I made is a mathematical fact. If, for instance, the virus is half as deadly but infects 3 times more people, then it is 3 \* 1/2 = 1.5 times deadlier. Your examples involve assuming that the numerator is smaller than the denominator. Why? It does not follow at all from the virus being less deadly. A virus being less deadly can still wind up killing more people. Anything that is less deadly can still wind up killing more people if it happens to more people. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2021, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/186 "2021-12-20T20:16:54Z")
> [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > And even if – if - the Omicron variant turns out to be less severe, hospitals could still fill up with cases, cutting loose people with other ailments to go back home and suffer them there. If I had cancer or a heart attack, Omicron being less severe would mean nothing to me if they’re just going to turn me away because the beds are filled with Covid cases. Here’s a quote from today’s Boston Globe about hospitals in MA right now: > As the number of people hospitalized for COVID in Massachusetts continues to rise sharply — it has more than doubled over the past month, to 1,499 — Biddinger and other hospital leaders say the deluge is overwhelming their already strained operations and bone-weary staff. > > “The demand for care is as high as it’s ever been,” Biddinger said. > > Hospitals, anxious about being swamped early in the pandemic, postponed many procedures, such as colonoscopies and joint replacements, to make room for COVID patients. Now patients with advanced cancers, heart disease, and other chronic illnesses who delayed care are swamping hospitals, sicker than ever. > > Many of the facilities are also facing staffing shortages. And now, Biddinger said, patients frustrated at having to wait hours and even days for a hospital bed are taking their anger out on staff. > … > > The anxiety among hospital leaders is palpable as they talk about the weeks ahead, when the current surge of COVID cases from the Delta variant is expected to swell to a tsunami with Omicron, too. > > “There was so much hope that perhaps [vaccination] would prevent another surge,” said Hudson-Jinks, the chief nursing officer at Tufts. “It’s very disappointing that we are here again, seeing the numbers of COVID patients increase in the community and in here. It’s exhausting.” And from another article in the same publication about Rhode Island: > PROVIDENCE — Internal briefing materials shared with Rhode Island health and political leaders present a stark picture of overcrowded hospitals, with potentially worse to come if the Omicron variant of COVID-19 spreads more easily than previous variants. > > The 54-page PowerPoint presentation, prepared by Department of Health contractors and dated Tuesday, shows that emergency departments at multiple hospitals right now are “dangerously overcrowded.” Hospitals use a tool called the NEDOCS score to rate emergency department overcrowding. The score goes up to 200. Anything above 180 is considered “dangerously” overcrowded. Roger Williams Medical Center, Landmark Medical Center, Kent Hospital, and the Miriam Hospital have been at 200 in the last week, the data shows. Rhode Island Hospital was at 198. Doctors and hospitals are extremely concerned that even if Omicron is less severe, they will be swamped beyond control. They already are before Omicron has really taken over in this area. ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2021, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/187 "2021-12-20T21:02:58Z")
> [@eschrodinger](#): > > UK has had 12 deaths from omicron so far. Hard to calculate a case fatality rate, because deaths lag infections, so it’s unclear what number of infections this correlates with. > > > The UK Health Security Agency said on Sunday that 12 people in Britain had died with the Omicron variant and 104 were currently in hospital with it. I think I need to address this point again, it is a nuanced point and I’m not being an arse about it with you eschrodinger because pretty much everyone falls into this trap. Look at the wording used by you, then look at the exact wording in the quote you used. There is an important diference between dying and being in hospital “with” omicron versus dying and hospitalisation _from_ it. If we are concerned about how dangerous it is then we need to make that distinction. As omicron spreads and infects a huge number of people, even if it is far less deadly than previous strains we would still expect to see large numbers of people in hospital who test positive and large numbers who die will test positive for it _even if the virus did not cause their hospitalisation or death._ The more illuminating data will be a specific breakdown of deaths and hospitalisations _because_ of omicron v previous variants. ---
**Author:** ![eschrodinger](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschrodinger/32/122_2.png) [@eschrodinger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschrodinger)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2021, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/188 "2021-12-20T21:03:52Z")
Good point. ---
**Author:** ![eschrodinger](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschrodinger/32/122_2.png) [@eschrodinger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschrodinger)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2021, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/189 "2021-12-20T21:08:44Z")
> [@si\_blakely](#): > > What we do know is that it is far more virulent than Delta. Virulent means causing severe disease. I think you mean infectious. We don’t know yet how virulent it is. ---
**Author:** ![eenerms](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/cdc98d/32.png) [@eenerms](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eenerms)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2021, 12:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/190 "2021-12-21T00:26:22Z")
Let us not panic. It is more transmittable , but not as deadly. It’s not doom and gloom. COVID is going to be with us as are other variants. ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2021, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/191 "2021-12-21T00:27:34Z")
…case numbers in NSW. Dec 3: 306 Dec 11: 485 Dec 12: 586 Dec 13: 804 Dec 14: 1360 Dec 15: 1742 (Exceeded the previous highest amount of cases) Dec 16: 2213 (192 cases admitted to hospital, 26 in ICU) Dec 17: 2482 (215 cases admitted to hospital, 24 in ICU) Dec 18: 2566 (206 cases admitted to hospital, 26 in ICU) Dec 19: 2501 (227 cases admitted to hospital, 28 in ICU) Dec 20: 2482 (261 cases admitted to hospital, 33 in ICU) Dec 21: 3033 (284 cases admitted to hospital, 39 in ICU) Source > **[3,867,791 Coronavirus Cases and 8,931 Active in NSW - COVID Live](https://covidlive.com.au/nsw)** > > Live tracking of coronavirus cases, active, tests, deaths, ICU, hospitalisations and vaccinations in NSW > **[COVID-19 in NSW - COVID-19 (Coronavirus)](https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/stats-nsw.aspx)** > > Sources of COVID-19 diagnosed in NSW in last 24 hours, last 7 days and to date. I think that everyone on the planet is hoping that Omicron is going to end up being milder than Delta, But we aren’t in the position to know that right now. NSW is in trouble. Those ICU numbers are going in the wrong direction fast. The contact tracing system effectively broke four days ago, with people diagnosed with Covid-19 being asked to contact close contacts themselves. We are going to start to see flow on effects from this surge: doctors/nurses/lab techs/support staff are going to get sick and are going to have to isolate, putting even more pressure on the health system. This isn’t about just one thing. This is about a butterfly flapping its wings in Siberia causing a storm in Kentucky. This dramatic rise in cases is going to put pressure on testing, put pressure on labs, and with people having to wait hours to get tested will put pressure on the workplaces they’ve just left. And we’ve gone from a few hundred isolating every day to thousands of people isolating daily…and next week it will probably get worse. This is the danger of the sort of analysis that is being done in this thread. In the week this thread has been open ICU cases have gone up by a third. By next week they may well have doubled. And the thing is the NSW premier has ruled out reintroducing mask mandates or other restrictions, saying it is a matter of “personal responsibility”. So if you want: we can start comparing Gauteng to NSW. Just remember that under Level 1 restrictions in Gauteng, they: - Have a curfew between 0000 and 0400 - Mandatory masking for everyone over the age of six in a public place (and if you fail to comply after being instructed, you risk a fine and a period of imprisonment up to six months) - Maintain 1.5 metres social distance [https://www.gov.za/covid-19/about/coronavirus-covid-19-alert-level-1](https://www.gov.za/covid-19/about/coronavirus-covid-19-alert-level-1) Compared to NSW where: - Masks are no longer mandatory (but strongly recommended) except on public transport, airports/aircraft, and front-of-house hospitality - QR code check in no longer needed at all businesses - No social distancing mandates - Vaccine passports no longer required except for large indoor music festivals and certain industries > **[How to stay safe and help prevent the spread](https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/stay-safe)** > > Everything you need to know about staying safe from COVID-19 and protecting those around you.  I think that we are going to start to find that the impact that Omicron will have on different countries and localities will be directly proportional to how seriously those in charge take the threat. Someone said that in Gauteng “lockdown remains at the lowest level”: but even at “the lowest level” they are still doing much more than many other places in the world. Those restrictions were enough to be able to get Delta under control, even with such low vaccination rates. We can’t discount the potential impact of this when we consider that “cases are now clearly falling.” ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2021, 2:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/192 "2021-12-21T02:11:45Z")
I was watching one of the major broadcast news shows today and they were interviewing someone from Pfizer. 2 things stood out. They were surprised by the variability of the virus and were considering developing a booster aimed at newer versions. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2021, 3:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/193 "2021-12-21T03:00:36Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Also conspicuously absent from all modelling are economic, social, educational and psychological costs of the alternatives. How do you know that’s absent? Maybe that’s modelled too. I think people are drawing a lot of very odd conclusions from one Twitter thread for which there isn’t much evidence. Here’s ALL we know: they modelled a worse case scenario. Did they model less-bad scenarios? We don’t know. Economic costs? We don’t know. Epidemiological impact on mental health? We don’t know. Educational impact? We don’t know. Supply chain? Impact on traffic fatalities? Don’t know, don’t know. There is no gotcha in this… Twitter thread. > [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > These are questions we not only haven’t answered, but aren’t even asking. You don’t know that. > [@BigT](#): > > A virus being less deadly can still wind up killing more people. Anything that is less deadly can still wind up killing more people if it happens to more people. To use a rather obvious example, you are much, much, much likelier to die from Ebola than from COVID-19, but COVID kills more people in a bad week than Ebola has killed in the entire time it has existed, because it spreads more. ---
**Author:** ![Jay\_Z](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Jay\_Z](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jay_Z)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2021, 5:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/194 "2021-12-21T05:23:53Z")
> [@BigT](#): > > The statement I made is a mathematical fact. If, for instance, the virus is half as deadly but infects 3 times more people, then it is 3 \* 1/2 = 1.5 times deadlier. > > Your examples involve assuming that the numerator is smaller than the denominator. Why? It does not follow at all from the virus being less deadly. > > A virus being less deadly can still wind up killing more people. Anything that is less deadly can still wind up killing more people if it happens to more people. I am assuming that EVERYONE is infected eventually, and that people acquire immunity from death at least after infection. In that scenario the faster but less deadly virus runs out of people to infect first. Then that virus is done, and the slower but more deadly virus surpasses the faster virus because it still has people left to infect, and the faster virus doesn’t. This is a simplistic scenario and does not account for vaccines etc. A very slow but very deadly virus may not kill as many because it’s too slow and too easy to avoid, people die of natural causes before they ever get infected. But the “running out of people” scenario is valid with faster infecting viruses. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2021, 5:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/195 "2021-12-21T05:27:59Z")
> [@Jay\_Z](#): > > But the “running out of people” scenario is valid with faster infecting viruses. So is the “running out of hospital beds and healthcare workers” scenario. ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2021, 5:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/196 "2021-12-21T05:29:59Z")
> [@Banquet\_Bear](#): > > Someone said that in Gauteng “lockdown remains at the lowest level”: but even at “the lowest level” they are still doing much more than many other places in the world. That’s a very good point. And my experience is that there’s no problem with compliance, in my area in Cape Town at least. I can’t remember the last time I saw anyone unmasked in a shop, or shopping mall, or busy street around here. The only exception is uncrowded places outdoors. I think there’s less anti-mask and anti-vax sentiment than in many countries. ---
**Author:** ![Jay\_Z](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Jay\_Z](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jay_Z)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2021, 5:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/197 "2021-12-21T05:34:47Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > So is the “running out of hospital beds and healthcare workers” scenario. Point being that faster viruses peak more quickly. I have already addressed the hospital situation. The faster virus peaks more quickly, then it runs out of people and descends from peak. Slower viruses have longer peaks. ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2021, 5:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/198 "2021-12-21T05:37:10Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Here’s ALL we know: they modelled a worse case scenario. Did they model less-bad scenarios? We don’t know. Economic costs? We don’t know. Epidemiological impact on mental health? We don’t know. Educational impact? We don’t know. Supply chain? Impact on traffic fatalities? Don’t know, don’t know. Actually, we do know. The Spectator article had a link to the full report in the first paragraph. Here it is (only 6 pages): > **[S1439\_SPI-M-O\_Consensus\_Statement.pdf](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1042204/S1439_SPI-M-O_Consensus_Statement.pdf)** > > 184.37 KB And no, they didn’t model ANY social or economic impact on society. ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2021, 5:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/199 "2021-12-21T05:43:08Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > So is the “running out of hospital beds and healthcare workers” scenario. So far the experience with Omicron is that there are NOT high levels of hospitalizations. It’s early days yet, but we are not seeing high hospitalizations in the UK, in New York State, in Denmark, in South Africa, or in other places where there has been high spike in Omicron cases in the last couple of weeks. There are still plenty of areas in the US where Delta is dominant, and these are the areas that are experiencing problems. ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2021, 5:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/200 "2021-12-21T05:45:51Z")
> [@GreenWyvern](#): > > And no, they didn’t model ANY social or economic impact on society. … that stuff is typically out of scope for epidemiological modeling though. One wouldn’t expect them to be modelling that. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134.md?page=11)