# The Omicron Variant **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [November 29, 2021, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134 "2021-11-29T13:54:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 12
**Author:** ![eschrodinger](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschrodinger/32/122_2.png) [@eschrodinger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschrodinger)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2021, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/221 "2021-12-21T18:05:00Z")
I’m betting that at the time they were asked to prepare the models, there was virtually no data that would allow probabilities to be attached to them. That was the point. We have no idea how virulent this will be. Please model different scenarios of what we need to be prepared for. Best case scenario – requires no preparation, so no model. Then, various degrees of virulence are modeled. It’s an array of possibilities that is meant to help with the dearth of data. As I said before, as data emerges, they then have the data, and also can start to see whether it matches any of the models, or tweak the models. ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2021, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/222 "2021-12-21T18:15:27Z")
The problem is that ALL their modelled scenarios assume that omicron is just as severe as delta. ---
**Author:** ![DMC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dmc/32/18049_2.png) [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2021, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/223 "2021-12-21T18:25:57Z")
> [@GreenWyvern](#): > > The problem is that ALL their modelled scenarios assume that omega is just as severe as delta. Which is far from a “worst-case scenario.” When you are unsure of an outcome, working with priors is a good idea when you are lacking sufficient data. At least that’s what my ol’ Presbyterian minister would say. ---
**Author:** ![eschrodinger](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschrodinger/32/122_2.png) [@eschrodinger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschrodinger)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2021, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/224 "2021-12-21T18:26:05Z")
Yes, I understand that you disagree with that approach. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2021, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/225 "2021-12-21T18:47:02Z")
> [@GreenWyvern](#): > > And no, they didn’t model ANY social or economic impact on society. Not in this six page document, no, because that’s not what this document is. So what other studies were commissioned by he government that commissioned this one? ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2021, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/226 "2021-12-21T18:59:32Z")
I’ve got no idea if any studies were commissioned from anyone except the main government advisory body. I doubt it, but if you’re interested why don’t you do some research and find out? ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2021, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/227 "2021-12-21T19:11:48Z")
My point is that accusing them of not considering these things is a ridiculous accusation unless you know that, in fact, they have not looked into these things. (It is preposterously unlikely they haven’t considered them, but I wasn’t making the positive assertion so I have nothing to prove.) ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2021, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/228 "2021-12-21T19:16:36Z")
J.P. Morgan experts analysed SAGE’s models and data, and that’s what they say. When challenged, SAGE haven’t denied it. That seems positive enough. ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2021, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/229 "2021-12-21T19:56:25Z")
…I just googled J.P. Morgan and SAGE and…that took me on quite the right-wing conspiracy rabbit hole. And having looked at the JP Morgan report, the first thing that struck me was what was written at the top: “Eyes on the market.” As I said before: the SAGE agenda is public health and saving lives. JP Morgan? Well… what do you think? This wasn’t scientific modelling. It was an investor note. ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2021, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/230 "2021-12-21T22:26:42Z")
> [@Banquet\_Bear](#): > > …case numbers in NSW. > > Dec 3: 306 > Dec 11: 485 > Dec 12: 586 > Dec 13: 804 > Dec 14: 1360 > Dec 15: 1742 (Exceeded the previous highest amount of cases) > Dec 16: 2213 (192 cases admitted to hospital, 26 in ICU) > Dec 17: 2482 (215 cases admitted to hospital, 24 in ICU) > Dec 18: 2566 (206 cases admitted to hospital, 26 in ICU) > Dec 19: 2501 (227 cases admitted to hospital, 28 in ICU) > Dec 20: 2482 (261 cases admitted to hospital, 33 in ICU) > Dec 21: 3033 (284 cases admitted to hospital, 39 in ICU) …today’s update: Dec 22: 3763 (302 cases admitted to hospital, 40 in ICU) ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2021, 10:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/231 "2021-12-21T22:31:28Z")
> [@Loach](#): > > This is not a scientific analysis but I can’t help but think what has started to come out about the Omicron Variant is true. It’s much more contagious but generally more minor. I heard the same today. Still considered speculative but considered to be likely true. I forget the exact numbers but of something like 5000 cases of Omicron here in Ontario, only about 15 required hospitalization. They did not mention how many of those cases were fully vaccinated, which would be a major factor complicating the conclusion. They almost certainly did not have boosters, though. There is currently a mad scramble in Ontario for booster shots. ---
**Author:** ![eschrodinger](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschrodinger/32/122_2.png) [@eschrodinger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschrodinger)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2021, 10:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/232 "2021-12-21T22:51:46Z")
What’s the vaccination percentage there? ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2021, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/233 "2021-12-21T22:54:20Z")
[https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/vaccine/Pages/default.aspx](https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/vaccine/Pages/default.aspx) ---
**Author:** ![eschrodinger](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschrodinger/32/122_2.png) [@eschrodinger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschrodinger)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2021, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/234 "2021-12-21T23:09:57Z")
It looks like a consistent 8-9% hospitalization rate. Because that can lag a bit, it might tell us a lot if that starts falling as there are more and more omicron cases making up that number, or if it stays the same. Currently, the hospitalization and death rates could still have a significant portion of delta cases, I’m guessing, even if omicron is now the dominant strain. Impressive vaccination numbers. And concerning that it’s spreading fast in that population. ---
**Author:** ![DMC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dmc/32/18049_2.png) [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2021, 11:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/235 "2021-12-21T23:12:32Z")
I understand that it’s quite possible that it ends up being extremely infectious but less virulent than other variants. It’s also quite possible that South Africa isn’t a particularly good proxy for the UK. Not in a “America is **special** so that won’t work here” sort of way, but in a “when it comes to expected CoVID outcomes they are so far apart that they barely share a planet” sort of way. One of these things is not like the other… > **[Median age](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/median-age?tab=chart&time=2000..2020&country=GBR~USA~ZAF~DEU~FRA~NOR~DNK)** > > The median age divides the population into two parts of equal size; that is, there are as many people with ages above the median age as there are with ages below. Here’s the UK’s age distribution over time: > **[Population by broad age group](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population-by-broad-age-group?stackMode=relative&country=~GBR)** > > An interactive visualization from Our World in Data. South Africa’s: > **[Population by broad age group](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population-by-broad-age-group?stackMode=relative&country=~ZAF)** > > An interactive visualization from Our World in Data. [And when it comes to people 80 or over](https://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/People/Age-distribution/Population-aged-80-or-over/Percent), over 5% of the UK population is 80+. South Africa didn’t hit a full percentage point. You can go ahead and make your decisions now. I’ll wait until we have a more representative data sample before I start pulling the trigger. ---
**Author:** ![Ziberian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/919ad9/32.png) [@Ziberian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ziberian)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2021, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/236 "2021-12-21T23:24:37Z")
> [@GreenWyvern](#): > > - What is the estimated social and economic harm of each possible action? Wouldn’t this fall to the public policy analysts? Epidemiologists study the health side of it, but that’s where their expertise ends. The political, social & economic aspects would be considered/modeled by experts in those areas. ---
**Author:** ![Tfletch1](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tfletch1/32/5340_2.png) [@Tfletch1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tfletch1)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2021, 1:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/237 "2021-12-22T01:43:55Z")
> [@GreenWyvern](#): > > I’ve got no idea if any studies were commissioned from anyone except the main government advisory body. I doubt it, but if you’re interested why don’t you do some research and find out? Exactly my point. You are the one making claims that they are making mistakes while providing bullets points on what the science, cultural, and economic advisors should be doing based on one document. ---
**Author:** ![Tfletch1](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tfletch1/32/5340_2.png) [@Tfletch1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tfletch1)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2021, 2:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/238 "2021-12-22T02:02:42Z")
I was very hopeful that South Africa may be turning a corner but just read that their testing positivity rate is still hovering near 30%. There’s speculation that testing has simply plummeted because people are leaving Johannesburg to go home for the holidays. That means there’s lots of covid out there and they’re spreading it around. [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-20/south-africa-records-lowest-number-of-covid-cases-in-two-weeks](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-20/south-africa-records-lowest-number-of-covid-cases-in-two-weeks) > **[Covid-19 hospitalisations fall sharply in South Africa](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/covid-19-hospitalisations-fall-sharply-south-africa/)** > > In what could be good news for other regions battling omicron, the number of people in hospitals with Covid-19 fell by around 25 per cent ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2021, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/239 "2021-12-22T02:32:11Z")
> [@Jay\_Z](#): > > > [@BigT](#): > > > > The statement I made is a mathematical fact. If, for instance, the virus is half as deadly but infects 3 times more people, then it is 3 \* 1/2 = 1.5 times deadlier. > > > > Your examples involve assuming that the numerator is smaller than the denominator. Why? It does not follow at all from the virus being less deadly. > > > > A virus being less deadly can still wind up killing more people. Anything that is less deadly can still wind up killing more people if it happens to more people. > > I am assuming that EVERYONE is infected eventually, and that people acquire immunity from death at least after infection. In that scenario the faster but less deadly virus runs out of people to infect first. Then that virus is done, and the slower but more deadly virus surpasses the faster virus because it still has people left to infect, and the faster virus doesn’t. > > This is a simplistic scenario and does not account for vaccines etc. A very slow but very deadly virus may not kill as many because it’s too slow and too easy to avoid, people die of natural causes before they ever get infected. But the “running out of people” scenario is valid with faster infecting viruses. Well, therein lies the issue. There is no reason to assume everyone will eventually be infected. The more valid assumption is that everyone will need to have acquired immunity, but that could be by vaccine or by infection. (Technically even that assumption isn’t quite valid, but it would require we actually stop the spread.) There is no reason to assume that the original, alpha, or delta strains would have eventually infected everyone. There’s not even reason to assume omicron will eventually infect everyone, even if it was the last mutation to actually take over. Not while methods to prevent infection are in the mix. Even now we have some protection against infection from existing vaccines. And, given how this is spreading, I expect that we are going to be getting vaccines with better protection against omicron infection. It just cannot be confidently claimed that omicron is less dangerous. And it definitely is not true that a virus with a lower death rate but higher infection rate is better than one with a higher death rate and lower infection rate. Sure, it **may** be better. But it’s not guaranteed. And the assumption that it is guaranteed seems to be behind a lot of the ire I’m seeing towards scientists. The other is that people don’t seem to know how hard it is to model all forms of uncertainty. It’s not easy to implement other levels of uncertainty, like @Sam_Stone’s suggestion we include how likely each scenario is. From what I understand, we don’t have remotely solid figures on that. It would spending a lot more time on data that is a lot messier and harder to interpret. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2021, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/240 "2021-12-22T02:43:10Z")
> [@BigT](#): > > The other is that people don’t seem to know how hard it is to model all forms of uncertainty. It’s not easy to implement other levels of uncertainty, like @Sam_Stone’s suggestion we include how likely each scenario is. From what I understand, we don’t have remotely solid figures on that. It would spending a lot more time on data that is a lot messier and harder to interpret. Granted that the issue is complex and certainty is not attainable. In that case, the uncertainty itself has to become part of the conclusion. But any decision that is optimized based solely on public health cannot possibly be optimal when other costs r benefits are included. We can’t quantify how much damage is being done to school children, but we know they are being harmed. We can’t quantify the damage to the supply chain, but we can see that it’s been damaged. We can’t easily compare the damage from delayed health care to damage from Covid, but we know there will be a rise in acute illness and death because of postponed treatments and checkups. Any optimal solution that only looks at the virus and its health implications will be overly restrictive when other costs are factored in. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134.md?page=11) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134.md?page=13)