# The Omicron Variant **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [November 29, 2021, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134 "2021-11-29T13:54:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 26
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2022, 5:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/502 "2022-01-30T05:56:38Z")
> [@GreenWyvern](#): > > If you have people from other countries arriving at the border, and being tested and quarantined, then I don’t understand why NZ citizens are not being allowed to return. …they mostly **are** returning NZ citizens. The cases arrived **from** those particular countries. But the overwhelming majority of the numbers are our people returning home. Thousands arrive every week. [https://www.customs.govt.nz/covid-19/more-information/passenger-arrivals-departures/](https://www.customs.govt.nz/covid-19/more-information/passenger-arrivals-departures/) But more people want to return than we have slots. Each Managed Isolation Hotel have been vetted and have reached certain standards of ventilation, etc, and it isn’t possible to stand any more up. Due to high vaccination levels we had plans to begin standing down the MIQ system in Jan and allow people to isolate at home. But Omicron changed those plans. (We plan on trying that again at the end of Feb.) Citizens and most residents are prioritized: there are exceptions for essential medical staff and entertainment. There are a limited amount of slots in Managed Isolation: they are released on a schedule via lottery, however you can apply for an emergency MIQ spot (and I think that Bellis should have been granted one). The process for that is here: [https://www.miq.govt.nz/travel-to-new-zealand/secure-your-place-in-managed-isolation/emergency-allocation-requests/](https://www.miq.govt.nz/travel-to-new-zealand/secure-your-place-in-managed-isolation/emergency-allocation-requests/) ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2022, 8:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/503 "2022-01-31T08:17:10Z")
…updates on NSW and New Zealand: There were 91 new cases in New Zealand today: “one new case in Northland, 65 in Auckland, 17 in Waikato, one in Tairāwhiti, three in Rotorua, one in Tauranga, two in Hawke’s Bay and one in Wellington.” I mentioned yesterday that there were 40 _additional_ cases to be added to today’s total: however the MOH has said today that this figure has been confirmed to be an IT mistake, so _hasn’t_ been added to today’s numbers. The MOH has also confirmed that they won’t be sequencing any cases that are epidemiologically linked: they will be assumed to be Omicron. Unlinked cases will continue to be sequenced. There were 39 new cases at the border, all being held in MIQ. There are 10 people in hospital, none in ICU. Modellers are still predicting a rise in cases later this week, getting up to maybe 400 cases per day by Friday. In NSW there were 13,026 cases today, with 2,779 in hospital, 185 in ICU, and 27 lives lost. ---
**Author:** ![Drsunflower1](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/drsunflower1/32/12711_2.png) [@Drsunflower1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Drsunflower1)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2022, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/504 "2022-02-01T19:06:16Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > my 3-times vaxxed mom just died last week of covid) My condolences. > [@Banquet\_Bear](#): > > Modellers are still predicting a rise in cases later this week, getting up to maybe 400 cases per day by Friday. Good luck 🤞 We’re up to a quarter million per day currently. Hospitalized cases are increasing, ICU is pretty stable. We just started vaccinating 5-12 yo. ---
**Author:** ![si\_blakely](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d9b06d/32.png) [@si\_blakely](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/si_blakely)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2022, 5:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/505 "2022-02-03T05:13:03Z")
> [@Banquet\_Bear](#): > > Modellers are still predicting a rise in cases later this week, getting up to maybe 400 cases per day by Friday NZ cases were only 147 today (Thursday), so we are still well under the spread models. The Government has further reduced the delay for boosters to 3 months, allowing over 1 million further vaccinated people to be given boosters. And they have announced a staged opening of the borders staring at the end of February, allowing fully vaccinated travellers to isolate in homes rather than a managed isolation facility. Basically, by that stage the number of incoming cases will be outnumbered by community spread. ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2022, 8:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/506 "2022-02-05T08:03:38Z")
Numbers for NZ today are [here](https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/in-depth/450874/covid-19-data-visualisations-nz-in-numbers). 269 in total, the large majority are community spread. Looks like omicron is behaving in much the same way as everywhere else but obviously starting from a very low base and in a population with virtually no previous exposure. Though the rise in those figures may be alarming to some, the spread of omicron is probably the best thing that could happen. Glad to see that NZ is still going ahead with opening up to travel again as well, hopefully our long delayed trip now has a chance of taking place. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2022, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/507 "2022-02-06T01:37:18Z")
> [@Novelty\_Bobble](#): > > Though the rise in those figures may be alarming to some, the spread of omicron is probably the best thing that could happen. Personally, I’d have been far happier if covid had less propensity to mutate, and our current vaccines provided good sterilizing immunity. I think omicron is a very bad thing, and a bad indication for the future. ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2022, 8:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/508 "2022-02-06T08:23:01Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > Personally, I’d have been far happier if covid had less propensity to mutate, and our current vaccines provided good sterilizing immunity. I think omicron is a very bad thing, and a bad indication for the future But I was speaking specifically with regards to the spread in NZ. Covid and omicron are a reality. We can’t wish them away. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2022, 8:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/509 "2022-02-06T08:56:40Z")
Okay. So how is the spread of omicron in NZ a good thing? ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2022, 9:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/510 "2022-02-06T09:50:54Z")
In a world where covid is endemic and ever-present, a milder disease spreading through a well vaccinated population with good controls and oversight is the best that you can hope for. Nothing about Covid spread is “good” (which is the reason I didn’t use that word). Amputating a limb isn’t “good” but it may well be the best outcome and preferable to the alternatives. Sure, It’d be a better world without Covid but we have to deal with the world as it is rather than as we’d want it to be. Seeing as every country is going to be exposed and see it spread within their populations then the nature of omicron is the “best” option. (where “best” is relative to what we’ve had so far). ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2022, 10:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/511 "2022-02-06T10:01:34Z")
Still not seeing how omicron spreading in NZ is better than whatever other hypotheticals you are considering, i guess. But maybe that’s just because i can’t figure out what hypotheticals you are considering. ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2022, 10:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/512 "2022-02-06T10:09:46Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > Still not seeing how omicron spreading in NZ is better than whatever other hypotheticals you are considering, i guess. But maybe that’s just because i can’t figure out what hypotheticals you are considering There is the source of your confusion. I’m not bringing in _any_ hypotheticals at all. I said… > [@Novelty\_Bobble](#): > > In a world where covid is endemic and ever-present, a milder disease spreading through a well vaccinated population with good controls and oversight is the best that you can hope for. Which is a reference to the situation in which we find ourselves. The only hypothetical mentioned was when I said > [@Novelty\_Bobble](#): > > Sure, It’d be a better world without Covid Which I dismissed immediately and it plays no part in my comment or my comparisons. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2022, 2:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/513 "2022-02-06T14:04:45Z")
To me, “the best we can hope for” implies you are comparing this outcome to some hypothetical other outcome, that this is better than. And seeing the death and damage to the US healthcare system that has been caused by omicron, I’m not sold on the relative virtues of a variant that is a little milder per person but is vastly more infectious than prior variants. > **[Omicron has caused higher increase in U.S. daily death count than delta variant](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/omicron-has-caused-higher-increase-in-u-s-daily-death-count-than-delta-variant)** > > The highly contagious omicron variant of the coronavirus is driving the daily American death toll higher than during last fall’s delta wave. > **[Propelled by omicron, U.S. death toll from COVID-19 hits 900,000](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/propelled-by-omicron-u-s-death-toll-from-covid-19-hits-900000)** > > COVID-19 has become one of the three top leading causes of death in America, behind the big two — heart disease and cancer. To public health experts, the milestone is made all the more tragic because so many of the recent deaths were preventable. I might have said, “I’m glad new Zealand managed to hold its hard quarantine against covid until they were able to vaccinate and boost most of their population”, however. ---
**Author:** ![Tfletch1](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tfletch1/32/5340_2.png) [@Tfletch1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tfletch1)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2022, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/514 "2022-02-06T14:30:00Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > And seeing the death and damage to the US healthcare system that has been caused by omicron, I’m not sold on the relative virtues of a variant that is a little milder per person but is vastly more infectious than prior variants. Exactly. The US has already demonstrated that the ‘mildness’ effect has been overwhelmed by the massive transmission rate. Some of Omicron’s mildness is due to partial immunity. On the other hand, Omicron’s transmission rate appears to be largely due to immune evasion so simple first round vaccination may not be good enough. Although NZ has a good vaccination rate, their booster rate is lagging behind other wealthy nations except for the US. Almost zero natural immunity to add to vaccination. On the bright side, the majority of their vaccinations are less than 6 Mos old. ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2022, 2:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/515 "2022-02-06T14:48:50Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > To me, “the best we can hope for” implies you are comparing this outcome to some hypothetical other outcome, that this is better than. no, that isn’t what I meant. > [@puzzlegal](#): > > And seeing the death and damage to the US healthcare system that has been caused by omicron, I’m not sold on the relative virtues of a variant that is a little milder per person but is vastly more infectious than prior variants. But the USA is not as well vaccinated as NZ, not as well boosted, not as well controlled or overseen. That’s why I called those factors out specifically, I didn’t refer to the USA at all nor make or imply any comparison. I don’t know why you have brought the USA into the conversation about NZ. Other countries that have also had huge waves of omicron have not seen such damage to the healthcare sector, I expect NZ to fare much the same. Lots of infections, relatively few deaths. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2022, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/516 "2022-02-06T15:27:54Z")
> [@Novelty\_Bobble](#): > > > [@puzzlegal](#): > > > > To me, “the best we can hope for” implies you are comparing this outcome to some hypothetical other outcome, that this is better than. > > no, that isn’t what I meant. Okay. I guess we are just speaking at cross purposes. I remain anxious about how many people covid is going to kill and maim in New Zealand, now that it has broken through their quarantine. I suppose they couldn’t hold out forever, but they might have done so for a few more years. So i see the recent news as just bad, and don’t know how to react to words like “the best we can hope for”. But i guess i am just failing to understand you. Sorry to mistake you for suggesting there’s anything good about it. > [@Novelty\_Bobble](#): > > Other countries that have also had huge waves of omicron have not seen such damage to the healthcare sector I do observe that other countries are also struggling to provide healthcare, due to the stress omicron has put on their systems: [https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-health-staffing-crisis-risks-derailing-attempts-solve-hospital-backlog-2022-01-06/](https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-health-staffing-crisis-risks-derailing-attempts-solve-hospital-backlog-2022-01-06/) > There is a record 5.8 million waiting list for elective care, the Health and Social Care Committee said, adding that a recent surge in the Omicron variant has pushed cases to record highs and intensified pre-existing issues. ---
**Author:** ![Tfletch1](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tfletch1/32/5340_2.png) [@Tfletch1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tfletch1)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2022, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/517 "2022-02-06T15:37:58Z")
> [@Novelty\_Bobble](#): > > But the USA is not as well vaccinated as NZ, not as well boosted, not as well controlled or overseen. That’s why I called those factors out specifically, > > I didn’t refer to the USA at all nor make or imply any comparison. I don’t know why you have brought the USA into the conversation about NZ. > > Other countries that have also had huge waves of omicron have not seen such damage to the healthcare sector, I expect NZ to fare much the same. Lots of infections, relatively few deaths. My post above challenges your assertions. According to ourworldindata, NZ is only slightly more boosted than the US but the US has much more natural immunity plus vaccination. Europe has way more immunity via boosters and prior infection. The only thing NZ has is its better control of its population’s behavior. But that wasn’t your original argument. Your argument is hinging on the ‘mildness’ of Omicron and that this is a good time for the virus to become endemic for them. I think they need more people boosted before that can be said. ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2022, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/518 "2022-02-06T16:05:53Z")
> [@Tfletch1](#): > > My post above challenges your assertions. According to ourworldindata, NZ is only slightly more boosted than the US but the US has much more natural immunity plus vaccination You should consider the whole of my comment. i.e. The vaccination, the boosters, the controls and the oversight. They all matter as a process for minimising the impact. Also, the raw numbers behind vaccination and boosters are less important than the coverage within the vulnerable groups. New Zealand overall has a much higher vaccination rate than the USA and because it has been done in strict age and vulnerability order there are far less coverage gaps that the USA. Boosters will follow the same pattern. Slow but targetted in NZ, further ahead but sporadic in the USA. A booster program of 70% coverage could well be _less_ protective against serious illness or death than one of 40% if that lower figure is covering _all_ the vulnerable. > [@Tfletch1](#): > > The only thing NZ has is its better control of its population’s behavior. But that wasn’t your original argument. Your argument is hinging on the ‘mildness’ of Omicron Go back and read, My first mention of Omicron being “milder” was followed immediately by me referring specifically to “good controls” and that is far from the “only thing” that NZ has going for it, which seems really dismissive of what they’ve done. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2022, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/519 "2022-02-06T16:33:25Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > So i see the recent news as just bad, and don’t know how to react to words like “the best we can hope for”. What if they had said “as good as we could expect given current circumstaces”? Or would there still be a reflex reaction to the use of the word “good”? ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2022, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/520 "2022-02-06T16:54:15Z")
> [@Novelty\_Bobble](#): > > New Zealand overall has a much higher vaccination rate than the USA and because it has been done in strict age and vulnerability order there are far less coverage gaps that the USA. I wouldn’t use those words, but I agree with the sentiment. New Zealand has a much higher booster rate among elderly and other vulnerable populations than the US, and I bet it has a better vaccination rate among adults, although I haven’t checked that. > [@JRDelirious](#): > > > [@puzzlegal](#): > > > > So i see the recent news as just bad, and don’t know how to react to words like “the best we can hope for”. > > What if they had said “as good as we could expect given current circumstaces”? > > Or would there still be a reflex reaction to the use of the word “good”? Yeah, then I would have simply disagreed, instead of expressing surprise. I don’t think “omicron has broken out into the community at large” is “as good as we could expect”. I think it’s about par for what we might have expected, and we could certainly have hoped for better. Or, to be more precise, “the probability of New Zealand having done better was modest, but not insignificant.” ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2022, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/521 "2022-02-06T17:16:42Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > I don’t think “omicron has broken out into the community at large” is “as good as we could expect”. I think it’s about par for what we might have expected, and we could certainly have hoped for better. _Hoped_ for. I suspect part of the matter at hand is that there may be a disconnect between various parties in the conversation of where is the marker realistically set for both hopes and expectations, and _between_ hopes and expectations, in order to express some degree, _any_ degree of positive outlook. NZ was doing, is doing, about as much and as well as it can under the circumstances. They deserve a ton of credit for that. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134.md?page=25) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134.md?page=27)