# The Omicron Variant **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [November 29, 2021, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134 "2021-11-29T13:54:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/9de053/32.png) [@Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackknifed_Juggernaut)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2021, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/81 "2021-12-14T20:40:53Z")
> [@JaneDoe42](#): > > Let me know if it worked for you, OK? It’s been a bit over 24 hours since Jab #3, and there is virtually no arm pain. Last night and through the early morning, there was literally no pain to the point where I feared they gave me a dud. Now I have very minor arm pain, minor body aches and minor chills/fever. So far, it’s just a less severe version of my response to Jab #2. I’ll report back. Also, the time between Jab 2 and Jab 3 was just a bit more than 10 months. Not sure how that length affects the severity of side effects. ---
**Author:** ![Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/9de053/32.png) [@Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackknifed_Juggernaut)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2021, 12:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/82 "2021-12-15T12:42:14Z")
The 2nd 24 hours post-jab have been a bit worse than the first 24, but so far still quite a bit milder than after #2. The right arm pain is definitely noticeable now, but I think not as bad. Again, my arm pain was never too bad. Still have minor body/muscle aches and chills, although the slight fever (about 99 degrees) is now 98.2. My normal is 97.9. These were the worst symptoms back in February, as my leg muscles felt like I do after a heavy squat workout, and my upper body after heavy bench and deadlifts. Not the case this time. By the way, for the next booster (which now seems inevitable), I’m going to be sure to not go to the gym the day before. I think that the timing of the side effects emerging is lined up with the exact day(s) that I’d be sore from a workout, so the vaccine may be having a compounding effect. ---
**Author:** ![JaneDoe42](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/janedoe42/32/14104_2.png) [@JaneDoe42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JaneDoe42)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2021, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/83 "2021-12-15T21:54:50Z")
> [@Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](#): > > I think that the timing of the side effects emerging is lined up with the exact day(s) that I’d be sore from a workout, so the vaccine may be having a compounding effect. That is really interesting, thanks for posting everything! ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2021, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/84 "2021-12-15T22:50:54Z")
A professor on immunology in the UK just now saying the number of new cases was like having a month’s rainfall in a day. There is an estimate that the number of cases of people with the omicron variant in the UK is doubling every two days! The question is what percentage will need hospitalisation. But even if it’s really mild, it means huge disruption as those who catch it take days off work. And a small percentage being hospitalised still will create a huge overall number in intensive care if too many people contract this thing. In fact if it’s half as deadly as Delta but with the reproduction rate they think, it will hospitalise more people than Delta two days after starting with the same number of people. 78,000 people were confirmed as testing positive today in the UK. The previous record during the entire pandemic was 68,000 back in January but it’s suspected the real figure is 200,000 new cases. This thing is going to run rampant over the next week or two and just in time for Christmas… ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2021, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/85 "2021-12-16T17:12:08Z")
I decided instead of a booster I would get Covid instead. No needles. I was due to get the booster on Saturday but started getting sick and was positive on a test I took Thursday night. This is not a scientific analysis but I can’t help but think what has started to come out about the Omicron Variant is true. It’s much more contagious but generally more minor. We currently have out of work more people with Covid this week than we have had during the entire pandemic. And we would have to routinely go into the houses of the dead and dying when New Jersey was the hot zone. None of those that are sick are reporting severe respiratory problems just flu like symptoms. ---
**Author:** ![Jasmine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jasmine/32/2964_2.png) [@Jasmine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jasmine)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2021, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/86 "2021-12-16T17:28:41Z")
In Illinois, 40% of the people hospitalized were on ventilators as of this past Tuesday. That sounds pretty bad. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2021, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/87 "2021-12-16T18:45:15Z")
> [@Loach](#): > > This is not a scientific analysis but I can’t help but think what has started to come out about the Omicron Variant is true. It’s much more contagious but generally more minor. All the analysis I’ve seen acknowledges that we’re certain it’s much more contagious, but we’re not yet certain that it causes less serious disease. There are too many confounding variables. Many people who are catching Omicron - like you - are vaccinated but not boosted. Even though you still caught it, your vaccination may be making symptoms much less serious than they would have been. Since most older people are now vaccinated and many are boosted, the average age of the person who contracts Omicron is younger than earlier strains. So we really don’t yet have enough carefully controlled data to know whether it causes less serious disease than other strains _ceteris paribus_. The data may just indicate that as a population we’re on average less susceptible to serious disease from any strain. If that’s the case, it would still be good news at a population level - but for an unvaccinated person it would not justify complacency. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2021, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/88 "2021-12-16T21:03:07Z")
Out of the 7 people at work that are now sick I might be the only one vaccinated. I don’t know for sure but I wouldn’t be surprised ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2021, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/89 "2021-12-16T22:03:56Z")
Official UK daily cases: 2 days ago: 54,661 yesterday: 78,610 today: 88,376 ---
**Author:** ![Jasmine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jasmine/32/2964_2.png) [@Jasmine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jasmine)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2021, 12:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/90 "2021-12-17T12:16:10Z")
They’re starting to postpone some NBA games because teams can’t field a team. The Bulls had TEN players on the COVID list this past week. ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2021, 1:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/91 "2021-12-17T13:23:57Z")
> **[South Africa sees fewer hospitalisations as Omicron cases surge](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/17/south-africa-sees-fewer-hospitalisations-as-omicron-cases-soar)** > > Officials say fewer coronavirus patients require hospitalisation despite a rise in the number of COVID-19 infections. ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2021, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/92 "2021-12-17T15:56:50Z")
Hmm… > **[Omicron largely evades immunity from past infection or two vaccine doses |...](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/232698/modelling-suggests-rapid-spread-omicron-england/)** > > The Omicron variant largely evades immunity from past infection or two vaccine doses according to the latest Imperial modelling. I think it’s safe to say that the jury is still out on the severity of omicron. ---
**Author:** ![Jay\_Z](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Jay\_Z](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jay_Z)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2021, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/93 "2021-12-17T16:58:17Z")
Modelling suggests… same severity. “We’re assuming the same severity, and we don’t have enough data to disprove that, so our assumption stands.” That seems to be… not so great science. Omicron seems far different from Delta. I think “assuming X because it’s derived from OG Covid” may not be accurate. Better to treat it separately and look at emerging field data from South Africa. ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2021, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/94 "2021-12-17T17:08:04Z")
> [@Jay\_Z](#): > > Modelling suggests… same severity. “We’re assuming the same severity, and we don’t have enough data to disprove that, so our assumption stands.” That seems to be… not so great science. Yes possibly although they do add the qualifier that the numbers are small. I think the point is to say that there are a lot of assumptions that Omicron is less severe and that is a potentially dangerous conclusion to jump to right now. Let’s hope it is though. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2021, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/95 "2021-12-17T17:22:47Z")
> [@Jay\_Z](#): > > Modelling suggests… same severity. “We’re assuming the same severity, and we don’t have enough data to disprove that, so our assumption stands.” That seems to be… not so great science. Perhaps you can make a case for a different null hypothesis, but it’s not obvious to me what that would be. The point here is that if you take your null hypothesis to be equal severity, we do not yet have sufficient data to disprove that null hypothesis. That’s a traditional scientific approach. The alternative would be a Bayesian approach, where you assume a prior wide distribution of possible levels of severity, then incorporation more information from research data to progressively narrow this probability distribution. Under either approach, I have not yet seen any research that provides sufficient data to control for confounding variables in a conclusive way. ---
**Author:** ![Jay\_Z](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Jay\_Z](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jay_Z)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2021, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/96 "2021-12-17T17:38:29Z")
> [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](#): > > Yes possibly although they do add the qualifier that the numbers are small. I think the point is to say that there are a lot of assumptions that Omicron is less severe and that is a potentially dangerous conclusion to jump to right now. Let’s hope it is though. I’m not sure anyone assumed that off the bat, though. It’s based on field reports, what is going on in South Africa. It is more the politics at this point. If using the same template for Omicron is seen as a wolf cry, and it harms subsequent messaging efforts. The general public’s appetite for lockdowns etc. is limited, and I don’t want to waste ammo on tactics that are unneeded and ineffective. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2021, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/97 "2021-12-18T02:13:34Z")
Here’s some concrete information, plus potentially an explanation for why Omicron is more infectious but less lethal: > **[HKUMed finds Omicron SARS-CoV-2 can infect faster and better than Delta in...](https://www.med.hku.hk/en/news/press/20211215-omicron-sars-cov-2-infection)** > > A study led by researchers from HKUMed provides the first information on how the novel Variant of Concern of SARS-CoV-2, the Omicron SARS-CoV-2, infect human respiratory tract. > [@](#): > > The researchers found that Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infects and multiplies 70 times faster than the Delta variant and original SARS-CoV-2 in human bronchus, which may explain why Omicron may transmit faster between humans than previous variants. Their study also showed that the Omicron infection in the lung is significantly lower than the original SARS-CoV-2, which may be an indicator of lower disease severity. This research is currently under peer review for publication. The short version: Omicron appears to replicate 70 times faster in the bronchus, but the replication rate in lung tissue is much lower than Delta (_one tenth_!). Snce lung trouble is what kills most people who die ftom Covid, this could be very good news. Normal disclaimer: It’s only one study, and it’s preliminary. But if these findings are true, then everyone’s probably going to get it unless you are completely isolated. The good news is that it shouldn’t be nearly as lethal, even for unvaxxed people. In other good Omicron news, a study of sewage in Orlando has found that Omicron made up almost 100% of the virus found. And yet, Omicron cases in hospital are very low. > **[Omicron is dominant in wastewater samples in Florida county](https://news.yahoo.com/omicron-dominant-wastewater-samples-florida-173842553.html)** > > Even though there have been practically no cases of clinical infection, wastewater samples show that the new omicron variant is now the dominant strain of COVID-19 in the Florida county that is home to the nation's largest theme park resorts,... > [@](#): > > A sampling this week showed that omicron represented almost 100% of the strains in the samples from the wastewater facilities, Orange County Utilities spokesperson Sarah Lux said in an email. > > It’s a different story when it comes to people seeking treatment for COVID-19, officials said. > > “Those who are hospitalized are being primarily infected by the delta variant,” Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings said Wednesday at a news conference held at the Orlando International Airport. Taken together, along with other information from other regions all seems to point to much more infectious, but less dangerous. Still, the rapid rate of infection could still swamp the hospital system. ---
**Author:** ![Bootb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e19b73/32.png) [@Bootb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bootb)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2021, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/98 "2021-12-18T02:27:45Z")
> [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](#): > > There is an estimate that the number of cases of people with the omicron variant in the UK is doubling every two days! The surge won’t last long at that rate. ---
**Author:** ![eschrodinger](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschrodinger/32/122_2.png) [@eschrodinger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschrodinger)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2021, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/99 "2021-12-18T02:43:05Z")
Hospitalizations and deaths lag infections. So I think it remains to be seen. ---
**Author:** ![Jay\_Z](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Jay\_Z](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jay_Z)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2021, 6:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/100 "2021-12-18T06:13:29Z")
> [@eschrodinger](#): > > Hospitalizations and deaths lag infections. So I think it remains to be seen. Yes, but if the impact on the lungs is so different, what’s true for OG Covid and Delta may not apply to Omicron. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134.md?page=6)