# The Omicron Variant **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [November 29, 2021, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134 "2021-11-29T13:54:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Jay\_Z](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Jay\_Z](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jay_Z)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2021, 7:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/121 "2021-12-19T07:45:03Z")
If I’m in a position where I am actually making decisions, and I’m dealing with limited physical resources and a limited menu of choices, I am absolutely going to work the data coming out of South Africa and anywhere else as hard as I can to know exactly as I can what Omicron is going to do. This back of the envelope crap, we don’t have time. Even if it makes you feel more serious by being more pessimistic. People in power need to be making plans based on reality, not on generating clickbait for someone that wants to be scared today. ---
**Author:** ![eschrodinger](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschrodinger/32/122_2.png) [@eschrodinger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschrodinger)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2021, 8:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/122 "2021-12-19T08:03:51Z")
There are experts out there making models with ranges of outcomes based on different severity levels. Like the Danish ones in the article I just posted today. They have a best case scenario where hospitalizations per day match the peak of the last wave, even though there will be far more cases. It’s just that they also have a moderate scenario and a worst case scenario, which are really really bad. Which one should they be making plans based on? ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2021, 8:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/123 "2021-12-19T08:09:01Z")
> [@eschrodinger](#): > > Which one should they be making plans based on? They should be making plans based on the emerging data, rather than on theoretical models. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2021, 8:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/124 "2021-12-19T08:21:40Z")
> [@GreenWyvern](#): > > They should be making plans based on the emerging data, rather than on theoretical models. The models _do_ take into account the emerging data. The existing data are not so unequivocally rosy as you think. ---
**Author:** ![eschrodinger](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschrodinger/32/122_2.png) [@eschrodinger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschrodinger)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2021, 8:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/125 "2021-12-19T08:28:47Z")
Models _are_ how you plan, using science, for the future, based on emerging data. As time goes on and more data comes out, they will see which model fits better, and eventually there will be enough data to talk about what the data itself shows. But that’s definitely not now. But it makes no sense scientifically to ask experts to help plan for the future by using only past data from a different country, where there are lagging indicators and significant differences between the populations. ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2021, 8:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/126 "2021-12-19T08:31:43Z")
> [@GreenWyvern](#): > > They should be making plans based on the emerging data, rather than on theoretical models. Well, both actually. Seeing as you cannot be certain that the conditions that apply to the spread in SA will apply eslewhere. In other waves we’ve had ostensibly similar countries with similar restrictions see very diferent rates of infection for reasons that are very diffucult to unpick. I repeat what I wrote previously. > [@Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Thread - 2021 Breaking News](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/3279): > > Different countries, different demographics, different social interactions, different accommodation, different infection profiles, different behaviours. You can’t directly compare SA with the UK. > > Even if it is less severe (still not certain) you can get into health care supply issues very quickly indeed. > Because of the speed of transmission you cannot wait for certainty of severity to act. > > Simple maths, if you have ten times the number of infections for a disease that is only a third as likely to put you in hospital but those hospitalisations are compressed into a very short period of time, you have problems. So in the case of this variant we have definite evidence to point to massively higher transmission rates right now. We _don’t_ have solid evidence yet that it is less severe. We cannot be certain that the path of the disease elsewhere will mirror what has happened in SA. ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2021, 8:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/127 "2021-12-19T08:36:24Z")
And just to add, I don’t think there is a country out there that _isn’t_ hoping their measures _are_ overreactions. To find out, in a couple of weeks time, that the peak was more brief and lower than expected with fewer hospitalisations and deaths, would be a great New Years present. ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2021, 8:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/128 "2021-12-19T08:58:31Z")
> [@Novelty\_Bobble](#): > > We cannot be certain that the path of the disease elsewhere will mirror what has happened in SA. In the UK so far, it is mirroring what’s happened in SA. ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2021, 9:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/129 "2021-12-19T09:07:46Z")
> [@GreenWyvern](#): > > In the UK so far, it is mirroring what’s happened in SA. …so what do you do next week if things change and no longer mirror SA? That’s the entire problem here. We are seeing record numbers of cases in a very short time. You can’t just reverse course next week if things start to go bad. The damage is already done. ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2021, 9:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/130 "2021-12-19T09:12:42Z")
> [@GreenWyvern](#): > > In the UK so far, it is mirroring what’s happened in SA. I agree, and it is a gamble and it may well turn out to be an overreaction. By the time we know for sure it’d be too late. Being the first country hit you didn’t have the option of taking a gamble on it but I suspect that if you had you’d be doing the same as the UK. France, Germany etc. The modelling just has so many uncertainties, so many drastically bad “worst-case” scenarios and so little time to react that it is prudent to take action now. ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2021, 10:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/131 "2021-12-19T10:55:47Z")
> [@Novelty\_Bobble](#): > > Being the first country hit you didn’t have the option of taking a gamble on it but I suspect that if you had you’d be doing the same as the UK. France, Germany etc. There _was_ an option for an immediate hard lockdown, but it was decided that the situation didn’t warrant it. The infection rate for omicron is so high that a lockdown wouldn’t have made much difference. It wouldn’t have stopped or significantly reduced the wave of cases. That’s the situation in the UK right now. You can lockdown as much as you like, but it’s a case of closing the stable door after the horse has fled. While you’re busy deciding about it, omicron has already spread through half the population anyway. Added to that, in SA the reports from the very start were that the symptoms were far milder than delta, and so the authorities decided to monitor the situation carefully, but not panic. Risk management is an art not a science, and kneejerk overreactions don’t help. ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2021, 11:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/132 "2021-12-19T11:43:45Z")
> [@GreenWyvern](#): > > Risk management is an art not a science, and kneejerk overreactions don’t help. …nobody is calling for “kneejerk overreactions” here. Just a strong public health response to a global pandemic that has already killed millions. ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2021, 11:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/133 "2021-12-19T11:43:48Z")
> [@GreenWyvern](#): > > That’s the situation in the UK right now. You can lockdown as much as you like, but it’s a case of closing the stable door after the horse has fled. Do you think restrictions and lockdowns have no impact at all on how the virus spreads? This isn’t a case of _preventing_ the spread, this is _managing_ the spread. This is letting the horses escape in gradual way. Again, I’m seeing conflicting scientific reports on severity but unanimous agreement on how quickly it spreads and substantial modelling of potential health-care crisis situations. There is also some evidence that it _may_ be milder and _may_ have peaked in SA. Given that we don’t know if that is true or why that might be, can’t confirm the severity change and to _wait_ for confirmation of a worst case would leave you powerless to do anything about it, then it is hard to criticise a cautious approach. ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2021, 12:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/134 "2021-12-19T12:48:47Z")
> **[New York reports 22,000 new Covid cases – but hospitals say they can cope](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/dec/19/new-york-22000-new-covid-cases-omicron-testing-hospitals-rockettes-snl)** > > Omicron surge leads to event cancellations and lines at testing sites but health system not yet under serious strain > **New hospitalizations and deaths are averaging well below their spring 2020 peak and even where they were this time last year** , during a winter wave that came as vaccinations were just beginning, city data shows. > > Mount Sinai Health System emergency rooms had seen about 20% more patients – with all conditions – in recent days, according to Dr Eric Legome, who oversees two of the network’s seven ERs. But at least so far, he said, “ **We’re seeing a lot more treat-and-release” coronavirus patients** than in earlier waves. > > Many are looking for tests, help with mild or moderate symptoms, or monoclonal antibody treatment, but **very few require oxygen or a hospital stay** , said Legome. > > Hospital admissions and deaths tend to rise and fall weeks after cases do. But Dr Fritz François, chief of hospital operations for NYU Langone Health, says so far, “ **We’re actually seeing something different” than in previous surges.** ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2021, 12:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/135 "2021-12-19T12:58:00Z")
If you look at the [data for New York State](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/), it’s showing the same pattern as South Africa and the UK. A massive spike in cases, but hospitalizations and deaths still low and steady. ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2021, 1:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/136 "2021-12-19T13:19:22Z")
Australia’s two most populous states, New South Wales and Victoria, are actually _ **lifting** _ coronavirus restrictions, even as case numbers soar. > **[Australian states urged not to ‘panic and overreact’ to Omicron](https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/12/16/australian-states-urged-not-to-panic-and-overreact-to-omicron)** > > Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg says Australians need to learn to live with COVID-19. > **[PM speaks on Omicron after Australia reports more than 4000 cases in a single...](https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/pm-speaks-on-omicron-after-australia-reports-more-than-4000-cases-in-a-single-day-c-5004935)** > > The variant of concern is causing chaos around the world - with some countries introducing lockdowns over Christmas to buck the trend. > Prime Minister Scott Morrison said people need to be careful not to cause alarm when discussing case numbers. > > “We’re past the time when we just talk about case numbers. It is a leading indicator on some issues, but the real issue is how many people are experiencing serious illness,” he told reporters in Hobart on Saturday. I don’t agree with Scott Morrison on many things, but he’s right about this. ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2021, 1:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/137 "2021-12-19T13:35:06Z")
> [@GreenWyvern](#): > > I don’t agree with Scott Morrison on many things, but he’s right about this. …no he isn’t. The man has blood on his hands. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2021, 1:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/138 "2021-12-19T13:38:45Z")
Every new case is a new chance for a mutation. ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2021, 1:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/139 "2021-12-19T13:45:06Z")
> [@GreenWyvern](#): > > I don’t agree with Scott Morrison on many things, but he’s right about this. …just look at these figures. > **[Aboriginal Covid cases climb as Australian vaccination ‘surge’ falls short](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/nov/05/aboriginal-people-in-nsw-and-act-affected-by-covid-at-twice-the-rate-of-other-australians-data-shows)** > > Calls for greater resources as Aboriginal people disproportionately forced to ‘live with Covid’ Indigenous Australians were already being hit disproportionally harder just a few weeks ago. With cases going from 300 a day to over well over 2000 cases a day in under a week in NSW: this is not good. Not good at all. Morrison has shown over and over again that he doesn’t have a clue. The past successes of the pandemic response in Australia is more rightly attributed to the leadership of the States than anything Morrison has done. He’s wrong here. And Indigenous communities are going to suffer. ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2021, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134/140 "2021-12-19T13:57:01Z")
That article is from Nov 6, before omicron. The whole point with omicron is that case numbers don’t really matter so much now. They are far less associated with hospitalizations and deaths. Keep looking at the figures for hospitalizations and deaths, and don’t be alarmed by the case numbers. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-omicron-variant/955134.md?page=8)