…case numbers in NSW.
Dec 3: 306
Dec 11: 485
Dec 12: 586
Dec 13: 804
Dec 14: 1360
Dec 15: 1742 (Exceeded the previous highest amount of cases)
Dec 16: 2213 (192 cases admitted to hospital, 26 in ICU)
Dec 17: 2482 (215 cases admitted to hospital, 24 in ICU)
Dec 18: 2566 (206 cases admitted to hospital, 26 in ICU)
Dec 19: 2501 (227 cases admitted to hospital, 28 in ICU)
Dec 20: 2482 (261 cases admitted to hospital, 33 in ICU)
Dec 21: 3033 (284 cases admitted to hospital, 39 in ICU)
Source
I think that everyone on the planet is hoping that Omicron is going to end up being milder than Delta, But we aren’t in the position to know that right now.
NSW is in trouble. Those ICU numbers are going in the wrong direction fast. The contact tracing system effectively broke four days ago, with people diagnosed with Covid-19 being asked to contact close contacts themselves.
We are going to start to see flow on effects from this surge: doctors/nurses/lab techs/support staff are going to get sick and are going to have to isolate, putting even more pressure on the health system. This isn’t about just one thing. This is about a butterfly flapping its wings in Siberia causing a storm in Kentucky.
This dramatic rise in cases is going to put pressure on testing, put pressure on labs, and with people having to wait hours to get tested will put pressure on the workplaces they’ve just left. And we’ve gone from a few hundred isolating every day to thousands of people isolating daily…and next week it will probably get worse.
This is the danger of the sort of analysis that is being done in this thread. In the week this thread has been open ICU cases have gone up by a third. By next week they may well have doubled. And the thing is the NSW premier has ruled out reintroducing mask mandates or other restrictions, saying it is a matter of “personal responsibility”.
So if you want: we can start comparing Gauteng to NSW. Just remember that under Level 1 restrictions in Gauteng, they:
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Have a curfew between 0000 and 0400
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Mandatory masking for everyone over the age of six in a public place (and if you fail to comply after being instructed, you risk a fine and a period of imprisonment up to six months)
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Maintain 1.5 metres social distance
https://www.gov.za/covid-19/about/coronavirus-covid-19-alert-level-1
Compared to NSW where:
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Masks are no longer mandatory (but strongly recommended) except on public transport, airports/aircraft, and front-of-house hospitality
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QR code check in no longer needed at all businesses
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No social distancing mandates
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Vaccine passports no longer required except for large indoor music festivals and certain industries
I think that we are going to start to find that the impact that Omicron will have on different countries and localities will be directly proportional to how seriously those in charge take the threat.
Someone said that in Gauteng “lockdown remains at the lowest level”: but even at “the lowest level” they are still doing much more than many other places in the world. Those restrictions were enough to be able to get Delta under control, even with such low vaccination rates. We can’t discount the potential impact of this when we consider that “cases are now clearly falling.”