The different age profiles are not significant. As I pointed out earlier, current data shows that the fatality rate for people who’ve been admitted to hospital with omicron is a fraction of delta for all age groups, old or young.
So far both London and New York are still following the same trajectory as South Africa with omicron. High case numbers are not leading to a subsequent high numbers of hospitalizations and deaths anywhere.
Well then share this stratified data, please. Right now I see a variant that was first discovered less than a month ago for a disease with a typical 3 week lag between cases and deaths and you think we have the necessary data to extrapolate that into some sort of ideal social behaviors and outcomes. Tell me what that is based on specifically and feel free to share links.
This study of omicron from Norway found that
incubation period for symptomatic cases ranged from 0 to 8 days with a median of 3 days
Any increases in hospitalizations due to Omicron will easily show up within a week. But after nearly four weeks increases in hospitalizations have been low.
All reports show far fewer patients requiring oxygen, and even fewer on ventilators. Average hospital stays are 3.5 days, as compared with 8 days for delta.
One interesting data point is that, though cases shot up in the UK and almost doubled, they have remained level for a week now. Testing capacity has not yet been breached so I don’t think that is an issue.
Hospital admissions overall with omicron are flat but rising in London, but they have the largest number of omicron cases anyway so we would expect to see that (I refer back to the with/of distinction I made earlier), intensive care patients are flat in London.
So still no strong signal either way,
Early analyses suggest a reduced risk of hospitalisation among SGTF-infected individuals when compared to non-SGTF infected individuals in the same time period, and a reduced risk of severe disease when compared to earlier Delta-infected individuals. Some of this reducton is likely a result of high population immunity.
Our findings correlate with DATCOV surveillance hospitalisation data showing that, among patients
who had a known hospital outcome, 32% of COVID-19 admissions during the early fourth wave were severe compared to 65% during the early third wave.
And, surprise, surprise…
The UK Health Security Agency is due to say something similar in its first analysis of Omicron in the UK, to be published before Christmas.
The best news in the early data is that Britons who fall sick with Omicron are less likely to become severely ill than those who caught Delta. More people are likely to have a mild illness with less serious symptoms — probably in part due to Britain’s large number of vaccinated and previously infected people, and possibly because Omicron may be intrinsically milder.
That study had zero people over the age of 68 years old and almost everyone was vaccinated. I’m asking for a stratified study showing us the full impact across age groups and vaccination status.
Also, if the incubation period is 0 to 8 days across the non-stratified group of 111 people, then adding the delay between symptom onset and hospitalization of 3 to 10.4 days means it sometimes takes as long as 18 days or more between contracting the disease and being hospitalized. How many people in the UK had Omicron by December 3rd? You want definitive answers, give it some more time.
Seriously, is it too much to simply ask for a couple of weeks before we run off and risk everyone’s lives? I’m really curious what your agenda is here. We all want Omicron to be little more than sneeze inducing. You seem to have to know that answer right now. Why?
Excellent. Let’s wait and see what that report says.
Hell, even if we assume that there is a leak and everything they claim is true, the very next paragraph in your link says:
The less good news is that while Omicron seems milder overall, the UKHSA has found it is not necessarily mild enough to avoid large numbers of hospitalizations. The experts have found evidence that for those who do become severely ill, there is still a high chance of hospitalization and death. The UKHSA has also confirmed that transmissibility of Omicron is very high, meaning that even though it is milder, infections could rocket to the point large numbers still end up in hospital — essentially negating the reduction in severity. NHS staff shortages due to widespread infections also have to be taken into account. Boris Johnson said on Tuesday that there was still “uncertainty” on exactly how severe Omicron is, and how this impacts the hospitalization rate.
Because I spend time looking at the actual data and reports. 
And, unlike scientists and health officials making public statements, I don’t have to cover my ass.
That wasn’t an answer to my question. Want to try again?
I’ll be conciliatory on this, I don’t think I detect too much of an agenda but uncertainty is a bugger.
GW has the data from SA and is experiencing first-hand what impact it is having on health care and deaths (i.e. not much). The question is whether that will be seen on a worldwide basis.
There may be reasons for it that are specific to SA, or maybe not. I personally think there is something in the reduced virulence hypothesis and would not be surprised if that turns out to be the case but we are still a little way from nailing those details.
I can’t be too critical of the (over?) reaction of countries such as my own, nor of the (over?) optimistic assessment by GW.
This. Exactly this. I also think it’s likely to have reduced severity. I also hope that it’s true. What I don’t have is a need to jump the gun when we’re this close to finding out actual answers.
I am not sure about that. It seems to me that COVID hospitalizations also lag a lot: it’s not flu, where they worst day is the first day. It’s a slow burn. So it’s quite possible to have 3 day incubation + 5-7 days of symptoms and only then a trip to the hospital.
It’s also possible that as a variant spreads, it hits the least vulnerable (and so least cautious) first, and spreads more slowly to those who take precautions because they are high risk.
Well yes, but it is possible to jump the gun either way and that “this close” period might be the difference between flat-lining and exponential growth, such is the infectivity of omicron.
And speaking of “jumping the gun”
I think pretty much everyone has said it in this thread in one form or another but thank christ I’m not in a position to make this decision on the sketchy data we currently have
If the worse(r) cases pan out then healthcare is overwhelmed if we don’t restrict now
If this is less severe and we do restrict then credibility is lost and restrictions in the future run the risk of being ignored. So…
more virulent + restrictions now=pat on the back
more virulent + no restrictions = egg in the face
less virulent + restrictions now = egg in the face
less virulent + no restrictions = pat on the back
same virulence + restrictions now = pat on the back
same virulence + no restrictions = egg in the face
I think I’ve got the makings of a game show here…
See the Discovery Health report of Dec 14. (Was referred to upthread when it first came out.)
I bet I’ve looked at as much data as you have. And i agree that the preliminary indications are promising. My best guess is that it’s not going to be a big deal for vaccinated people.
Also, my household is entering a two week lockdown until we learn more. I’ll still visit my mom weekly, but test before i go and wear a KF94 mask while I’m there. My son and DIL plan to come for Christmas dinner, but they will test immediately prior. My husband usually gives platelets every two weeks, but he’s not scheduling Jan 2. We agreed to wait a week, and then he’ll decide.
Why the disconnect? Because my best guess is still a guess, and there’s a lot of data missing. And the risks of being wrong and opening up are too high.
I respect your opinions on this subject but I can’t parse the meaning of this sentence.
Case drop may show South Africa’s omicron peak has passed.
If this is true, it is some good news for a change.
What is it you want me to see? I’ve asked for stratified data so that we can perform this analysis properly. If you’ve provided it, show me where, as I’ve missed it so far.
Was this what you wanted me to find:
“Epidemiological tracking shows a steep trajectory of new infections, indicating Omicron’s rapid spread, but so far with a flatter trajectory of hospital admissions, possibly indicating lower severity,” explains Dr Noach. “This lesser severity could, however, be confounded by the high seroprevalence levels of SARS CoV-2 antibodies in the general South African population, especially following an extensive Delta wave of infections.”
Since you’ve read all of the studies, I’m assuming you know what confounding variables are. When the confounding variable is prior immunity, it’s pretty hard to extrapolate the impact on those without.
Perhaps you meant I should focus on this:
“Notwithstanding the fact that children continue to show a very low incidence of severe complications following COVID-19, Discovery Health’s data indicates that children under age 18 have a 20% higher risk of admission for complications of COVID-19 when infected with Omicron,” says Collie.
Or even this:
Collie adds, “Adults are experiencing a 29% lower admission risk relative to South Africa’s first wave of infection, dominated by D614G, in early 2020. Furthermore, hospitalised adults currently have a lower propensity to be admitted to high-care and intensive-care units, relative to prior waves.”
So we have an effective R0 through the roof, but at least we lowered admissions by 29% for those who get it (except for children, who seem to have elevated admissions). So if we quadruple cases, but reduce hospitalizations per case by 29%, we end up with what? Overrun hospitals. Hey, at least a lot of them won’t be on ventilators!
These studies that you keep referring to don’t make the same claims that you are and are full of caution about making assumptions too early.
Again, do you have a stratified study that shows the definitive proof that you claim to have?
I have fixed my typo.
