Your own graphs show that hospitalizations and deaths are considerably lower than they were a year ago.
Delta was around July and August. Vaccinations weren’t readily available a year ago. His graphs show what he is stating.
A year ago no one was vaccinated. He’s comparing to delta, which hit after vaccines were widespread. This is looking worse than Delta in the UK. And preliminary indications are it will be worse in the US, too.
Sure, a point that I myself made several times several weeks ago.
Of course again it depends what we mean by “worse”. If everyone is going to get exposed to covid (which is pretty much a certainty) then a condensed period of exposure to omicron may well end up with better outcomes than a longer period of delta.
As long as we remain below the levels of hospitalisations seen previously then it should be manageable. Vulnerable groups are boosted, everyone who wants a vaccination can get one.
US/UK comp on Delta isn’t particularly valid since the outcomes are so different. UK had kind of a constant steady infection rate since July, fairly high, but no corresponding mortality rate. Whereas USA had a spike with Delta that is more matching to Winter 2020 spike, with a corresponding mortality surge.
Basically, the US/UK Delta experiences are different enough that saying “I think Omicron is worse than Delta in UK so it will be in US too” isn’t valid because Delta US and Delta UK, or whatever the experiences of Fall 2021 are, are too different to be relevant.
So a better comp might be South Africa, which had a fall 2021 Delta infection surge AND mortality surge more similar to the US.
I didn’t say, “because it looks worse in the UK, it will be worse in the US”. I said “preliminary indications (of US data) are that it will be worse in the US”
The latest Nature Briefing indicates the first scientific studies on Omicron are starting to identify the reasons behind higher infectiousness and lower severity.
Omicron’s feeble attack on the lungs could make it less dangerous (nature.com)
There are half a dozen references in the article, all preprints, but all supporting the same picture of the variant:
It creates lower viral loads in the lungs in favor of higher loads in the upper respiratory tract. This has implications both on severity of illness and ease of transmission at lower viral loads. There seems to be an emerging consensus on the biological mechanisms behind this.
Vaccination has lower efficacy against Omicron but a third mRNA dose restores some of the efficacy. From one of the preprints:
In this study, we demonstrate both markedly decreased neutralisation in serology assays and real-world vaccine effectiveness in recipients of two doses of vaccine, with efficacy partially recovered by a third mRNA booster dose. We also show that immunity from natural infection (without vaccination) is more protective than two doses of vaccine but inferior to three doses.
The article (if you can get to it, I’m never sure what access I have is institutional and what is just public) is a concise account of emerging science (all preprints, but all converging on the main points through a number of paths) and well worth a read.
This is only relevant if you include test positivity. The positivity rate right now is 10%. Back in Jan it was 13%. That’s not enough of a difference to account for the huge number of cases.
The US delta surge was worse than UK because there were so many unvaccinated people.
I agree with @puzzlegal. The surge in the US already has more hospitalizations than its delta surge. Many of the places hit early have reached or surpassed the winter 2020 peak in hospitalization Deaths in the US are already at 75% of its delta peak. I’m sure it will surpass those deaths caused by delta.
The US may be worse than the UK because the UK has people with two doses of vaccine and over twice as many are boosted. Our only hope is that natural immunity will help. Otherwise, we’re screwed…again.
You absolutely cannot read the graphs and trust that they’re an accurate depiction of the situation. Right now, it’s like a car’s (analog) speedometer being pegged against the right wall. It can’t go any higher. Why? Because there aren’t any more tests available.
Case in point? Me. I tested positive earlier this week.
I tried to get an appointment at CVS. They’re all full for the next 5 days. Walgreens, same thing. I don’t qualify for any school or employer or government testing, so I simply couldn’t get tested.
So I went to the drug store and picked up at-home tests. It says to wait 15 minutes for the pink line to appear, but mine lit up in about 45 seconds. Yet the state has no idea. They have no knowledge of my positive test because I didn’t go through a pharmacy testing site.
And that test I got at the store? I knew they were there because I called ahead. She said to hurry because they only had three left. The sign on the front door said they were sold out, but there was a still-packed shipping box behind the counter. I got one of the last few, a guy behind me got the rest and asked why the sign was on the door. Clerk said she just got the shipment. And they’re already sold out.
So I’m not on any graph anywhere. Nor are aaaalllll those people who bought out all those other tests.
I’m living proof that the numbers, at this level, are worthless. They’re a minimum at best.
Just went to the Johns Hopkins site. Not seeing this at all.
…a couple of weeks into the outbreak into NSW.
Jan 4th: 23,131 cases, 2 deaths (1,344 cases admitted to hospital, 105 in ICU)
Jan 5th: 35,054 cases, 8 deaths (1491 cases admitted to hospital, 119 in ICU)
Jan 6th: 34,994 cases, 6 deaths (1609 in hospital, 131 in ICU)
Jan 7th: 38,625 cases, 11 deaths (1738 in hospital, 134 in ICU)
Things have gone to shit in NSW, and much of the rest of Australia as well.
It’s in both the NYT and Our world in data
In fact, hospital admissions are already at the Jan 2020 peak in our world in data.
Unless I’ve missed it all this time, Johns Hopkins shows current active hospitalizations (which matters from a current staffing perspective), not new admissions (which matters from a predictive staffing perspective and other reasons and is what we’ve been discussing). Omicron is just starting to heat up in most places, but daily new hospital admissions are higher today in the US, UK, Spain, France, Italy, Denmark, and other countries, than they were at any point during Delta. You have to go back to the days when almost no one was vaccinated to see similar numbers. None of those countries appears to have hit a plateau either.
I’ve been following my state’s dashboard. I don’t really want to out where I live, but our hospitalization rate is just a hair below the peak last January. We are still well below the April 2020 number of hospitalizations, but it’s really high.
Deaths are still a lot lower than the peak deaths last January, but peak deaths lagged peak hospitalizations by a couple of weeks. I don’t think we are seeing omicron deaths, yet, just the tail of delta deaths.
The numbers I’m looking at are “hospital admissions”, not “active hospitalizations”. If people really do get out faster with Omicron, the hospitals might maintain some capacity. But I’m also looking at hospital capacity, and it’s tight.
Ugggh. I meant Jan 2021 peak.
I am getting tired of the “cloth masks don’t work” reporting. In part because I don’t know what kind of design or quality they’re considering with “cloth mask”. I find it hard to believe that my three-ply ones with a built-in 0.3 micron filter is that much worse.
Just add it to the pile of incredibly lousy reporting and guidance from the media and the CDC.
I use these sometimes.
Vogmask VMC is printed outer layer with middle layers of VM particle filter for >95% of microscopic particles and carbon filter and inner layer of woven microfiber. Vogmask Organic VM is certified cotton outer and inner layer with middle layer of VM particle filter for >95% of microscopic particles.
95% Particle Penetration Filtering Efficiency, Filter class provides >99.9% Viral and Bacterial Filtering Efficiency, Safe and Comfortable Breathing Resistance, Valves Tested for inward valve leakage.
VOGMASK VM CONFORMS TO THESE STANDARDS IN TESTING:
The filter efficiency as stated in 42 CFR Part 84.181 is a minimum efficiency for each filter of ≥ 95% ( ≤ 1% penetration) . The test articles submitted by the sponsor conform to the criteria for filter efficiency.
Here’s some good information on masks
In particular, I’d like to call out this paragraph:
For those of you looking for masks, I’m a big fan of Aaron Collins who calls himself the “Mask Nerd”. He is mechanical engineer with a background in aerosol science. Since the beginning of the pandemic he has been testing, documenting, and reviewing the best masks he could find (in his free time). He has a YouTube channel and an incredible database. I will say, though, the adult database is overwhelming. The kids database is much better. His video on masks for kids under 12 was fantastic, too.
I’ve used Aaron Collins’ info on masks, and found it very helpful. Yes, the Vogmask is a decent mask, although he thinks there are disposable N95 and KF94s that are cheaper per use (if you haven’t already purchased a vogmask) and work as well or better, and are more comfortable to wear.
(He’s tested old. re-used “disposable masks”, and shown that they hold up very well if you take care of them.)
Here in New Hampshire our peak deaths during the winter of 2020-2021 were 24 people dying on January 6, and then from mid-February through late November we didn’t have any days with more than 10 deaths. Since December 21 we’ve had more deaths than 24 a day several times, and our new peak was Tuesday with 31 deaths.
While I suspect that Tuesday is just the post-holiday weekend effect, there have been other days with deaths in the high 20s over the past two weeks too, so it can’t all be catch-up reporting.