Yes, saw that. I believe Denmark saw it first in great numbers and the UK is seeing it now as well.
There is a confusing error in that article though, one of the reported tweets says
Cases of omicron subvariant are doubling about every four days, he tweeted. The delta variant cases doubled every 1.5 to three days.
Which, as far as I know is incorrect. The original omicron doubled in 1.5 to 3 days but delta was much slower than that (I believe in the region of 10-14 days)
Interesting quirk in the UK case numbers at the moment. We had the very steep rise then a steep decline but for the last week we’ve been on a plateau with cases at
roughly double the amount during delta. Not sure what is going on there. Numbers in hospital are declining. The ICU numbers are at their lowest level since mid-summer. (about 60% of the number seen during the delta wave)
This is all playing out against a backdrop of high booster rates for the vulnerable and very little precautions in place.
Yes, it appears that you develop a much stronger cellular response after the third dose. I suspect this should always have been a three-dose vaccine. Like polio.
In an ideal world yes. It has been really exciting to see this running at first hand and comparing the clinical trial world as it was previously to how we accelerated the process for the Covid vaccines. Development was lightning fast but there just wasn’t time to run those optimised trials for long-term multiple dosing nor for different lengths of dosing gaps. Once the initial two-dose, 3 week gap was seen to be very effective then it was rolled-out on that basis.
Quite right too, we couldn’t wait, but it does mean there has been a huge learning curve over the last 12 months where we begin to tease out all the various complications arising from “Vaccine A with B as a booster, B with A, C with A etc, plus for all combinations above questions of 3 week gaps? 12 week gaps? 24 week gaps? 2 dose, 3 dose, 4 dose, variant-specific effectiveness” and so on and so on.
The learning for all of that is really only just beginning.
Anyone know what form this is going to take? Is it a different booster, or is it a new vaccine series, or what? I’m vaxxed and recovered from a recent delta infection. I’m scheduled for a booster this month. I’d like to get my booster as scheduled, and then get an omicron-specific shot when it’s available. But if I won’t be able to get it if I’m already boosted, I might consider waiting.
ETA: Nevermind. I found the answer, which is that they are testing various scenarios.
Well it isn’t known to what degree (or even if) the omicron specific booster is better than the standard pfizer version.
The trial is starting now and so it’ll be a couple of months at least before we get results and approval let alone a roll-out (assuming it is showing benefit over the standard)
A conservative estimate would be 3 months for that omicron booster to be available for you. If you were unboosted and uninfected it’d be an easy decision to recommend the existing booster now. As you’ve recently been infected you’ve probably got pretty good protection and waiting for the omicron version probably doesn’t put you at much greater risk.
It is a tough decision. As you say, getting the booster now might prevent you getting the new version quickly but then with really good protection from the standard booster does having to wait longer for the new version matter?
Personally I’d get whatever is available whenever it is available but I can certainly appreciate your quandry.
Because you were recently infected, I’d wait before getting another booster, unless you need it for some gatekeeping reason (employer requires it, that sort of thing.) We don’t know who will be eligible for boosters in the spring, but the unboosted are more likely, and i don’t know that a booster shot right now, so soon after your recovery, would even do you much good.
Yeah, it’s a tough decision. My employer, which required vaccination, has asked everyone to voluntarily get a booster. I needed to wait 90 days from getting monoclonal antibodies, so I had a reason not to be able to get it. And during those 90 days, I’ve felt pretty safe. But as of today I’m at 90 days, and I had scheduled a booster for Thursday. Omicron has been so much more contagious and is causing so many breakthrough infections that I am concerned about getting it as my infection-booster might be waning.
Eh, I think I’ll go ahead and get the booster that’s scheduled. I don’t even know if the omicron-specific vaccine will be offered as a booster, or will be effective. And if it is highly effective, then it will probably be made available.
Oh, i forgot you had monoclonal antibodies. Yeah, get the booster. The antibodies (when they work) mop up most of the virus and can prevent your own immune system from getting close and intimate with it.
I was exposed on some level to two positive people for at least 10 days before I developed symptoms, and I didn’t get the antibodies until my 6th day of symptoms, so I’m hoping I had a good enough response for it to have boosted my immunity pretty well, before the monoclonal antibodies helped clear things up. But yeah, that’s also a good reason to get it sooner rather than later.
…today’s Omicron update from NZ: 23 community cases. 8 of them Delta, 15 of them Omicron. All epidemiologically linked to the index.
In addition, there were 37 cases at the border. Only six in hospital today.
The interesting thing here is that we are very very close to eliminating the Delta outbreak. The NSW outbreak has been a mix of Delta and Omicron, with apparently Delta causing much of the hospitalizations. (although they aren’t sequencing as much now, so it’s hard to tell.) So anything that happens from now will be on track to almost exclusively be Omicron.
45 new community cases today. 34 of them Omicron: 11 of them Delta. All appear to have epidemiological links to the index. There are five people in hospital with Covid, with one in ICU.
In addition, there were 51 cases at the border: with cases arriving from the USA, UAE, UK, India, Austria, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Australia, Pakistan, Brazil, Turkey, Dominica, Spain and Serbia.
Could you supply a link to your data source for your figures please? I’d be interested in following along with the data. (Both my wife and I have several spreadsheets for various countries that we’ve used for our own interest and also as teaching points for our kids ).
The official ministry of health numbers don’t appear to obviously align with your figures so it’d be good to establish the source.
Thanks, that’s the site that I’m looking at anyway but I was hoping to find it tabulated rather than just in a news release and so far I can’t find that.
I’m not sure if the government has nice pretty charts and so on, but the RNZ news website is pretty good. The data all comes from the daily media releases as far as I’m aware.
Thanks, that’s a good one. Much easier to tell the story with a picture.
There is a good chart that represents both the challenge at the border from the number of cases coming in from the rest of the omicron-rich world, and the associated spread in the community. (apologies but I’m apparently not allowed to embed pictures in a post, not sure why)
I would expect that, with the number of border cases increasing, there will be omicron spill-over into the community in increased amounts and the red figure will rise steeply. That isn’t the case yet.
Might be, might not be. They are such small numbers that changes like that from day to day have been quite common. I think in a few days we will see if this is the start of something or not. I’d be surprised if it isn’t, but data from one day is not enough to know.
The full numbers: 105 new cases in the community. Only 10 have so far been identified as Omicron: but as the numbers go up I’m expecting the time it takes to get for the sequencing to get back from the labs to increase, then eventually decouple. 5 in hospital, 1 in ICU. 45 cases at the border.
It looks like the government forecasting is on track, which is cases in the thousands in about 2-3 weeks.
My personal observations, being out and about yesterday: the businesses I visited were taking this as seriously (at Red Light) as they did at Level 4. I bought some fish-and-chips: everyone was masked, table at the door to prevent entry, where I made payment and the food was delivered to once it was ready to take away. I have the privilege of being able to go into my own personal Level 3: I’m doing all my work from home, and only going out if I absolutely have to.
Just on some other stats: vaccinations for 5-11 year old are going well: it started 11 days ago and we are at 29% one dose.