I certainly agree with that!!
But even with the best (or worst) procedures, there’s always an element of luck. New Zealand got unlucky this time. IMHO.
If the the vast majority of the vulnerable are covered by boosters, then NZ will not be as bad as the US.
This is unnecessary as I was specifically speaking about NZ overall boosted or natural+vaccinated immune status, not their excellent track record regarding Omicron.
that is what they are doing and that is why I said what I said.
Well you were speaking about “control of behaviour” which doesn’t seem to relate to vaccines or boosters but OK, If we both agree that they’ve done lots beside that then we have no quibble and I retract any implied criticism of what you said.
An interesting thread that makes the case that omicron cases aren’t sharply falling, testing is.
Hmm. But one possible explanation is that testing is falling off because infections are falling.
It would be helpful to know if the falling numbers are mainly in the screening category, or symptomatic people wanting a diagnostic test, or both.
And they mention that deaths lag infections, but then compare same dates when pointing out that deaths are riding while cases are falling…
I must confess I don’t understand that thread at all. First the author says (in point 3) that deaths follow infection by a few weeks. Then in point 4 he says, how can we explain that deaths are still rising when infection is falling? Doesn’t that… follow precisely if deaths follow infections by a few weeks? I see in the graph for point 3 that deaths are still rising when infections are following, just like his graph in point 4. Am I missing something? [Oh – I see on review that @eschrodinger made the same point.]
Anyway, in the US at least, I thought a significant number of the indicators that omicron cases are falling sharply are from testing wastewater, which wouldn’t be subject to the same problems of testing individuals.
Maybe he has a point, but he ruins it by poor assumptions and poor science. He ignores the trailing nature of the death indicator, showing graphs at scales where you can’t tell if the recent rise in deaths is simply lagging or diverging. He cherry-picks data like comparing the highest testing day (Tuesday after a long holiday) to the lowest (Saturday after the holiday surge has resolved).
He hypothesizes about authorities giving up on testing while ignoring the behavioral and reporting changes as a result of more widely available home testing. He makes judgments based on eyeball comparisons of graphs (to me, the Japan graph he uses as “proof” that deaths track cases actually shows cases dropping at the end while deaths are turning upward. Of course, I can’t tell anything by eyeballing and it’s way too early to make any judgment based on that graph. So why does he?).
Yeah, in my state, the case numbers have been nearly following the wastewater numbers, as they have been for as long as both have been published. And i don’t think there’s any testing bias in the wastewater numbers. I’m certain cases are down.
As others have mentioned, that thread makes no sense at all. Deaths are plateauing or even falling in many regions exactly 2-3 weeks after the peak of their surge. Exceptions are Denmark and Portugal which are only about a week out of their peaks. Luckily, the death rates are extremely low relative to the peak in cases.
New Zealand’s omicron wave seems to be taking off now.
More than double the cases seen today than at any point in the pandemic previously and the vast majority are community spread.
Still small numbers of course and it is still too early to assess healthcare impact but certainly omicron seems to be following a familiar path.
A nice summary of Omicron’s mutations:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/omicrons-surprising-anatomy-explains-why-it-is-wildly-contagious/?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR2fz88Bn6-gdWQjddKYs6IGLLZsGoHSfuZwS8dpYHWHB6FB_yqPVB0u9Mw#Echobox=1644581036
BA.2, or “stealth omicron”, is starting to look like it could be more than a blip. Preprint research suggests it’s 30% to 50% more contagious than Omicron, might cause worse illnesses (maybe even Delta levels), is more resistant to vaccines, and is harder to test for.
It’s only a preprint and the severity data is especially mixed, so it’s not quite time to crack each other’s heads open and feast on the goo inside. On the other hand, no harm in getting a head start.
If it’s that much more contagious it would be the most contagious virus on the planet, edging out measles by a comfortable margin, right?
You have a way with words. 
Figures in New Zealand are shooting up in the expected way.
Over 6000 cases for the last reported day.
For the omicron waves in other countries the hospitilisations and deaths were lagging by about three weeks so unsurprising that those figures are not rising so much yet.
It’d be interesting to get the views of people on the ground in NZ. This level of infection is unknown for you but I’m suspecting that the general opinion is one of general acceptance and calm.
ooof! over 12,000 cases per day at the last report.
A big jump, still only 3 people in ICU though and most interestingly to me, the BA2 variant doesn’t seem to be out-competing the BA1 variant. though both have completely wiped out delta.
We’ve just started including self-reported RAT results so that helps explain the massive jumps. ICU numbers will lag infections but it is expected that the percentage will be low.
As for the people, I think we are mostly just getting on with life. There’s an ongoing “freedom” protest outside parliament which is pissing me off, primarily because I work very close to the area and I’m sick of listening to people yelling, cars revving engines, etc.
That’s great to hear, the annoying protests are just the price we all pay for a free society. I’ve seen nothing similar in the UK but I’m sure they’ve happened here as well. Hey ho, Looking at the Ukraine situation I think we all need to count our blessings regarding the ability to protest, even when we don’t agree.
I’m hoping that the NZ situation continues on an even keel,I think it will. I’d love to be able to rebook our long delayed trip. Two years ago we were just about to set off for Bangkok and Auckland.
The first flights into NZ with home isolation for vaccinated travellers (as opposed to booked via lottery Managed Isolation facilities) have started flying in (from Australia). With 15000 cases per day for the last couple of days the number of incoming cases from overseas is a drop in the proverbial bucket.
It’s difficult - my wife works in a high school, and they had 16 teaching staff away today, and more support staff. She is so likely to be exposed we have to make choices to not see the grandkids - they are not even eligible for a vaccination, and they have had issues with their daycare staff. There are empty shelves in supermarkets due to supply chain issues.
Everyone seems pretty resigned to this - we knew it would come, high booster levels are helping hospitalisation rates, but there are still lots of under 12s who are not vaccinated yet, and booster rates have slowed down a bit. RATS (rapid antigen tests) are the new thing, as PCR testing is swamped - we have left the times of full genome sequencing in the past. I’m not even tracking BA1 vs BA2 any more, although it seem like BA2 isn’t taking over.
And we still get pretty pissed at idiots - like the guy with diagnosed COVID-19 who was supposed to be isolating, but went to a busy beach, got into trouble and had to rescued by surf lifesavers, who are not all close contacts …