# The Pentagon is tracking a Chinese spy balloon

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-pentagon-is-tracking-a-chinese-spy-balloon/979228>\
**Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\
**Created:** [February 3, 2023, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-pentagon-is-tracking-a-chinese-spy-balloon/979228 "2023-02-03T01:32:54Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 8

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**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\
**Post date:** [February 4, 2023, 12:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-pentagon-is-tracking-a-chinese-spy-balloon/979228/141 "2023-02-04T12:32:44Z")

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Moderating

> [@Magiver](#):
>
> WOW. Your acceptance of an unannounced unapproved intrusion of US airspace is noted.

This is a hostile post and is inappropriate in MPSIMS. Address the content, not the commentator.

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**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\
**Post date:** [February 4, 2023, 12:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-pentagon-is-tracking-a-chinese-spy-balloon/979228/142 "2023-02-04T12:43:26Z")

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ISTM they’re doing more or less the same thing we do. Namely spying using whatever technical means we think most effective. And conducting atmospheric soundings for both weather modelling and military use of the resulting weather modeling.

I’m going to bet these balloon flights have been going on for years. What’s new is somebody on the ground noticed one and now both sides are having to gingerly discuss the topic in public. Without disclosing to the other side how much they know about the other side, and also without saying much about their own actions.

Here’s a fun bit of US spycraft from ~20 years ago. Building highly detailed missile guidance maps of almost all the planet’s land surface using a NASA vehicle. The mission wasn’t secret then, but all the meaty details were for over a decade and some may still be.

> **[Shuttle Radar Topography Mission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shuttle_Radar_Topography_Mission)**
>
> Pages for logged out editors learn more
> 
> The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) is an international research effort that obtained digital elevation models on a near-global scale from 56°S to 60°N,: 4820  to generate the most complete high-resolution digital topographic database of Earth prior to the release of the ASTER GDEM in 2009. SRTM consisted of a specially modified radar system that flew on board the Space Shuttle Endeavour during the 11-day STS-99 mission in February 2000. T...

I just don’t get the outrage. This, or its equivalent, goes on every single day all around the world. Anyone who can afford to spy on their rivals does so using every means at their disposal.

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**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\
**Post date:** [February 4, 2023, 1:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-pentagon-is-tracking-a-chinese-spy-balloon/979228/143 "2023-02-04T13:16:39Z")

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> [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](#):
>
> City of Billings says the video is unsubstantiated:

I hear this in the voice of a young Orson Welles.

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**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\
**Post date:** [February 4, 2023, 1:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-pentagon-is-tracking-a-chinese-spy-balloon/979228/144 "2023-02-04T13:18:46Z")

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> [@FlikTheBlue](#):
>
> MHO it’s probably meant as a form of psychological warfare. China probably wants ordinary Americans to start thinking something along the lines of “China can fuck with us in this way and we can’t do anything about it? We have all these advanced weapons and yet we can’t shoot down a simple balloon? Maybe we should not fuck with them.” Why else would China admit that the thing belongs to them?

Exactly. (LSLGuy agrees with us….though I also agree with his more recent post, that this isn’t a new thing, and that they also serve practical purposes of weather and surveillance data collection. Their whole balloon PROGRAM serves all three purposes: mild intimidation/showing off; weather data collection; security data collection.

That this PARTICULAR balloon took the course it did — and was detected by the public — is probably largely random, which makes the timing with the planned diplomatic meeting an unfortunate coincidence. Maybe.)

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**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\
**Post date:** [February 4, 2023, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-pentagon-is-tracking-a-chinese-spy-balloon/979228/145 "2023-02-04T13:39:11Z")

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Yeah. Balloons are semi-steerable. About in the same way a canoe is steerable in a big river. You’re going to go generally downstream whether you like that or not. You can tweek generally where you’re going within that larger stream, but that’s about it. And sometimes not even much of that.

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**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\
**Post date:** [February 4, 2023, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-pentagon-is-tracking-a-chinese-spy-balloon/979228/146 "2023-02-04T15:12:52Z")

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> [@Snarky\_Kong](#):
>
> What’s ridiculous about it? Are spy satellites ridiculous?

Well I don’t think you can really steer a balloon like that once it takes off. And from what I’ve read, it’s not likely such a balloon could gather and significant intel (at least not that couldn’t already be gathered by satellites).

Like what would they find out about already well-known missile sites in Montana? That they still exist?

By all accounts, the Pentagon has determined that shooting the balloon down and having it crash into something they don’t want it to crash into is a greater risk than just letting it float over the Midwest.

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**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\
**Post date:** [February 4, 2023, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-pentagon-is-tracking-a-chinese-spy-balloon/979228/147 "2023-02-04T15:12:56Z")

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> [@FlikTheBlue](#):
>
> Why else would China admit that the thing belongs to them?

Because it’s just an off course balloon?

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**Author:** ![Son\_of\_a\_Rich](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/son_of_a_rich/32/5439_2.png) [@Son\_of\_a\_Rich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Son_of_a_Rich)\
**Post date:** [February 4, 2023, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-pentagon-is-tracking-a-chinese-spy-balloon/979228/148 "2023-02-04T15:13:52Z")

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It can only “steer” by ascending or descending, to get into winds of a different direction. Structure-wise, there’s not much there to support whatever the mechanism for that would be. It can release gas to descend only so many times.

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**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\
**Post date:** [February 4, 2023, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-pentagon-is-tracking-a-chinese-spy-balloon/979228/149 "2023-02-04T15:15:08Z")

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> [@JKellyMap](#):
>
> > [@FlikTheBlue](#):
> >
> > MHO it’s probably meant as a form of psychological warfare. China probably wants ordinary Americans to start thinking something along the lines of “China can fuck with us in this way and we can’t do anything about it? We have all these advanced weapons and yet we can’t shoot down a simple balloon? Maybe we should not fuck with them.” Why else would China admit that the thing belongs to them?

I didn’t realize my elderly mother in law had such strategic importance to the Chinese. Although hearing her talk, apparently they’ve been bitter enemies for some time.

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**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\
**Post date:** [February 4, 2023, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-pentagon-is-tracking-a-chinese-spy-balloon/979228/150 "2023-02-04T18:40:28Z")

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You can steer balloons. The balloon is also much closer than a satellite, much cheaper, has significantly longer loiter time, and there might be significant intel gathered from all the planes that are observing the balloon. The balloon can also hit a lot of different targets while it’s hard to change a satellite orbit.

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**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\
**Post date:** [February 4, 2023, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-pentagon-is-tracking-a-chinese-spy-balloon/979228/151 "2023-02-04T18:42:08Z")

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> <https://mobile.twitter.com/YCSO_SC/status/1621903240219475969>

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**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\
**Post date:** [February 4, 2023, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-pentagon-is-tracking-a-chinese-spy-balloon/979228/152 "2023-02-04T18:45:47Z")

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> [@scudsucker](#):
>
> Doesnt the “space force” have those C130 Hercules with a sort of “snare” arrangement on them for retrieving spy satellite film anymore?

It started out at 60,000 feet, above the height anything but maybe an SR-71 can fly, but it is losing altitude. Last report I read had it at 50,000 and “they” were getting worried about it descending further into airliner territory.

> [@Lord\_Feldon](#):
>
> Even if that’s a total crock, it’s probably good that they felt the need to say it.

It the first time I can recall a PRC spokesman apologizing about _anything_.

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**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\
**Post date:** [February 4, 2023, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-pentagon-is-tracking-a-chinese-spy-balloon/979228/153 "2023-02-04T19:01:12Z")

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> [@scudsucker](#):
>
> Doesnt the “space force” have those C130 Hercules with a sort of “snare” arrangement on them for retrieving spy satellite film anymore?

Not since 1996 or so.

Once it’s over water the Air Force can shoot it down. Cannon fire will put enough holes in the bag that it will drift down rather than eastward. Let the Navy handle it from there.

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**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\
**Post date:** [February 4, 2023, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-pentagon-is-tracking-a-chinese-spy-balloon/979228/154 "2023-02-04T19:09:34Z")

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> [@silenus](#):
>
> Once it’s over water the Air Force can shoot it down. Cannon fire will put enough holes in the bag that it will drift down rather than eastward. Let the Navy handle it from there.

Presumably it’s over the Atlantic by now if it was spotted in South Carolina over 3 hours ago.

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**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\
**Post date:** [February 4, 2023, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-pentagon-is-tracking-a-chinese-spy-balloon/979228/155 "2023-02-04T19:10:39Z")

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The FAA has ordered a ground stop at some East Coast airports, presumably in preparation for the Air Force to shoot down the balloon over the Atlantic.

> **[FAA orders ground stop at 3 U.S. airports to support "national security...](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/faa-orders-ground-three-airports-support-national-security-effort-where-suspected-chinese-spy-balloon-last-seen/)**
>
> The Federal Aviation Administration has paused arrivals to and departures from three U.S. airports.

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**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\
**Post date:** [February 4, 2023, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-pentagon-is-tracking-a-chinese-spy-balloon/979228/156 "2023-02-04T19:32:12Z")

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The footage of a Chinese Lawn Chair Larry being pulled from the water by the USN might be a tad embarrassing.

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**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\
**Post date:** [February 4, 2023, 7:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-pentagon-is-tracking-a-chinese-spy-balloon/979228/157 "2023-02-04T19:35:13Z")

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> [@DesertDog](#):
>
> It started out at 60,000 feet, above the height anything but maybe an SR-71 can fly

Both the F-15 and F-22 fly that high.

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**Author:** ![Napier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/ce73a5/32.png) [@Napier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Napier)\
**Post date:** [February 4, 2023, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-pentagon-is-tracking-a-chinese-spy-balloon/979228/158 "2023-02-04T19:38:34Z")

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> [@DesertDog](#):
>
> It started out at 60,000 feet, above the height anything but maybe an SR-71 can fly, but it is losing altitude. Last report I read had it at 50,000 and “they” were getting worried about it descending further into airliner territory.

My company used to have a Learjet and I flew in it many times. It was nice. It could fly at 51,000 feet, and it was just a little passenger jet.

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**Author:** ![eburacum45](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eburacum45/32/8690_2.png) [@eburacum45](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eburacum45)\
**Post date:** [February 4, 2023, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-pentagon-is-tracking-a-chinese-spy-balloon/979228/159 "2023-02-04T19:46:15Z")

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> [@DesertDog](#):
>
> It started out at 60,000 feet, above the height anything but maybe an SR-71 can fly, but it is losing altitude. Last report I read had it at 50,000 and “they” were getting worried about it descending further into airliner territory.

This suggests to me that it is leaking. There need not be any holes in the balloon; helium is a monatomic gas, and will leak out through the thin walls of the balloon eventually.

This descending flight is another indicator that it probably isn’t under deliberate control; these balloons generally operate at 80,000 feet, and in order to ‘steer’, the balloon would need to have the capacity to go up as well as down into different air currents. Instead we see a gradual descent, eventually reaching the turbulent troposphere and finally the ground. Of course, if we do see it start to rise again, that may mean it is still functioning.

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**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\
**Post date:** [February 4, 2023, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-pentagon-is-tracking-a-chinese-spy-balloon/979228/160 "2023-02-04T19:55:21Z")

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Apparently it’s been shot down

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