# The possible Oxford vaccine **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [April 29, 2020, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-possible-oxford-vaccine/852821 "2020-04-29T16:21:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 19\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Palo\_Verde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/65b543/32.png) [@Palo\_Verde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Palo_Verde)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2020, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-possible-oxford-vaccine/852821/1 "2020-04-29T16:21:11Z")
There was a large article in the New York Times about this yesterday, but here is a non-paywall article: [Good News on Oxford Vaccine Is Bright Spot in Somber Covid-19 Landscape | Barron's](https://www.barrons.com/articles/good-news-on-oxford-vaccine-is-bright-spot-in-somber-covid-19-landscape-51588084298) and here: [Oxford scientists say a coronavirus vaccine may be widely available by September - CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-vaccine-oxford-university-scientists-september/) This lab at Oxford University had a head start on a vaccine because they were doing research on other similar coronaviruses. They are now starting phase 2/3 human testing on thousands of people. “scientists say they’re hopeful a coronavirus vaccine will be widely available by September” This would be a game changer if true! An Indian firm is starting to mass produce the vaccine as a kind of gamble. If it is proven effective and the Indian firm has already made millions of doses, they will stand to make a ton of money by having it already on hand. But if it turns out to be a bust, then all their money goes down the tubes. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2020, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-possible-oxford-vaccine/852821/2 "2020-04-29T17:29:18Z")
[This](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/27/world/europe/coronavirus-vaccine-update-oxford.html) may be the New York Times article you referred to, and [this one](https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/04/28/world/europe/28reuters-health-coronavirus-india-vaccine.html) is about Serum Institute of India (the Indian firm you mentioned) and the vaccine it’s producing. The Times is providing free access to coronavirus coverage, so both articles should be readable by anyone. BTW, my guess is that the 2021 Nobel Prize in Medicine is going to whoever is responsible for a successful vaccine. ---
**Author:** ![filmstar-en](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/50afbb/32.png) [@filmstar-en](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmstar-en)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2020, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-possible-oxford-vaccine/852821/3 "2020-04-29T18:38:31Z")
Here is an interview with a virologist from Oxford. > **[BBC One - The Andrew Marr Show, 19/04/2020, Prof Sarah Gilbert: Coronavirus...](https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p089xqrl)** > > Andrew Marr spoke to the Professor Sarah Gilbert, Vaccinologist at Oxford University and the transcript. > **[19042003.pdf](https://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/19042003.pdf)** While Oxford university are treating this as a public health matter and don’t look to make any money out of it, I am sure there are a plenty of businesses waiting for the opportunity. The testing seems to depend on waiting for the volunteers to be exposed to Corvid in the community. That part could take a long time. I guess they chose volunteers who work in areas where exposure is likely and the protection inadequate. At the moment that seems to be in Care Homes for the Elderly. > **[Oxford COVID-19 vaccine begins human trial stage | University of Oxford](https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-04-23-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-begins-human-trial-stage)** > > University of Oxford researchers have begun testing a COVID-19 vaccine in human volunteers in Oxford today. Around 1,110 people will take part in the trial, half receiving the vaccine and the other ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2020, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-possible-oxford-vaccine/852821/4 "2020-04-29T19:01:07Z")
Excellent news, even if only hopeful. I predicticted we’d have a vaccine for health workers by early fall. If we get one for the at risk population by September, that would be fantastic! ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2020, 11:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-possible-oxford-vaccine/852821/5 "2020-04-29T23:39:53Z")
> [@Palo\_Verde](#): > > This would be a game changer if true! Whenever I see the words “game-changer” I duck and cover. Sure, it might work! Sure, give people hope! But I foresee many dashed hopes. This prospective vaccine and many dozens more have no guarantees. I also foresee more desperate folks self-medicating with Xquines, bleach, antacids, Drano; sticking hands in rigged microwave ovens; and whatever else sweeps social media and official disinfo briefings and tweetstorms. Did monstrous media hoopla surround development of polio vaccines? Were hopes raised and dashed? ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2020, 1:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-possible-oxford-vaccine/852821/6 "2020-04-30T01:52:36Z")
> [@Dewey\_Finn](#): > > BTW, my guess is that the 2021 Nobel Prize in Medicine is going to whoever is responsible for a successful vaccine. No. Nobel prizes are awarded for work done many years before. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2020, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-possible-oxford-vaccine/852821/7 "2020-04-30T01:58:56Z")
Sure, that’s been the practice for a long time. But I think in this case, the committee will make an exception, and it would be correct to do so. (Plus [Alfred Nobel’s actual will](https://www.nobelprize.org/alfred-nobel/full-text-of-alfred-nobels-will-2/) says, “prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind.” Certainly the person or persons who come up with a vaccine for this thing will deserve it.) ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2020, 3:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-possible-oxford-vaccine/852821/8 "2020-04-30T03:20:58Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > No. Nobel prizes are awarded for work done many years before. Hell, they didn’t even give one to Jonas Salk. Ever. ---
**Author:** ![Senegoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senegoid/32/6606_2.png) [@Senegoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Senegoid)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2020, 6:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-possible-oxford-vaccine/852821/9 "2020-04-30T06:39:16Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > No. Nobel prizes are awarded for work done many years before. User name / post combo! ---
**Author:** ![SanVito](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sanvito/32/2805_2.png) [@SanVito](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SanVito)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2020, 9:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-possible-oxford-vaccine/852821/10 "2020-04-30T09:01:54Z")
The UK Health Secretary has announced that Astra Zeneca have signed a deal with Oxford University to take the vaccine to scale - if it works, I presume. Ah, the [press release](https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/articles/2020/astrazeneca-and-oxford-university-announce-landmark-agreement-for-covid-19-vaccine.html). ---
**Author:** ![filmstar-en](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/50afbb/32.png) [@filmstar-en](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmstar-en)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2020, 2:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-possible-oxford-vaccine/852821/11 "2020-04-30T14:19:08Z")
Yes, the press are all over this. The labs that are developing the vaccine need a large scale manufacturer to be lined up to mass produce it once it has cleared the testing and regulatory hurdles. There are a limited number of companies that have the experience and capability to manufacture vaccines in volume. I would guess that all of the hundred or so labs developing a vaccine would need to have such an arrangement in place. There is a lot of very optimistic estimates of how long it will be before a successful vaccine is rolled out. But human trials take time. The Jenner institute in Oxford is named after Edward Jenner who demonstrated a vaccine for smallpox in 1796. His human trials involved deliberately infecting a subject with smallpox after vaccination to prove it worked. Not an approach that would be considered ethical today. I believe common flu vaccines are tested in this way with paid volunteers. But Corvid-19 is a new virus so I imagine the risks to volunteers are too high and they must wait patiently until volunteers are exposed to the virus in the community. That will take time. I expect there are parts of the world where vaccine tests are not troubled by ethical qualms. They may well win the race. Goodness knows there are enough politicians around the world who desperately want to trumpet that they have developed a successful vaccine. The nationalist politics seem to have created an international Corvid vaccine race. Who is gonna win? US, China, UK… There is a long list of competitors. The politics around this pandemic is very depressing. ---
**Author:** ![Si\_Amigo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/si_amigo/32/2877_2.png) [@Si\_Amigo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Si_Amigo)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2020, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-possible-oxford-vaccine/852821/12 "2020-04-30T14:21:13Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > No. Nobel prizes are awarded for work done many years before. Maybe they will get a Noble prize! Sorry, just being sarcastic. :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![legion60](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/53a042/32.png) [@legion60](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/legion60)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2020, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-possible-oxford-vaccine/852821/13 "2020-04-30T17:02:38Z")
> [@filmstar-en](#): > > I believe common flu vaccines are tested in this way with paid volunteers. But Corvid-19 is a new virus so I imagine the risks to volunteers are too high and they must wait patiently until volunteers are exposed to the virus in the community. That will take time. This is where, in a movie, hardened prisoners on death row would volunteer to get infected and test the vaccine. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Chao\_Goes\_Mu](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_chao_goes_mu/32/3191_2.png) [@The\_Chao\_Goes\_Mu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Chao_Goes_Mu)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2020, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-possible-oxford-vaccine/852821/14 "2020-04-30T17:06:07Z")
> [@filmstar-en](#): > > … But **Corvid-19** is a new virus so I imagine the risks to volunteers are too high and they must wait patiently until volunteers are exposed to the virus in the community. That will take time. > > . I for one do not want a vaccine against crows. I think they’re lovely birds. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2020, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-possible-oxford-vaccine/852821/15 "2020-04-30T22:18:22Z")
> [@The\_Chao\_Goes\_Mu](#): > > I for one do not want a vaccine against crows. I think they’re lovely birds. > 😉 Sure they’re fine, lovely even, one at a time, but get a group together and you’ll have a murder on your hands. ---
**Author:** ![Esprise\_Me](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/esprise_me/32/2947_2.png) [@Esprise\_Me](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Esprise_Me)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2020, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-possible-oxford-vaccine/852821/16 "2020-05-02T01:16:58Z")
> [@filmstar-en](#): > > The Jenner institute in Oxford is named after Edward Jenner who demonstrated a vaccine for smallpox in 1796. His human trials involved deliberately infecting a subject with smallpox after vaccination to prove it worked. Not an approach that would be considered ethical today. > > I believe common flu vaccines are tested in this way with paid volunteers. But Corvid-19 is a new virus so I imagine the risks to volunteers are too high and they must wait patiently until volunteers are exposed to the virus in the community. That will take time. > > I expect there are parts of the world where vaccine tests are not troubled by ethical qualms. They may well win the race. Goodness knows there are enough politicians around the world who desperately want to trumpet that they have developed a successful vaccine. > > The nationalist politics seem to have created an international Corvid vaccine race. Who is gonna win? US, China, UK… There is a long list of competitors. > > The politics around this pandemic is very depressing. There have been some rumblings of such human-challenge trials being considered here: **The Coronavirus Vaccine May Have a Shortcut: Infecting Volunteers** [https://nyti.ms/2yeAUIT](https://nyti.ms/2yeAUIT) > [@](#): > > Trials take time: The first phase typically takes months, and the second two take years. > > As a result, some experts have called for replacing conventional Phase III testing with human-challenge trials. In The Journal of Infectious Diseases last month, the bioethicist Nir Eyal and the epidemiologists Marc Lipsitch and Peter Smith argued that the idea, while risky, could shave months off the process. “Every week that vaccine rollout is delayed will be accompanied by many thousands of deaths globally,” they wrote. “If the use of human challenge helped to make the vaccine available before the epidemic has completely passed, the savings in human lives could be in the thousands or conceivably millions.” > > How would it work? > In the authors’ proposed design, the study would rely entirely on young, healthy volunteers who fully understand the risks of participating. (To the authors, “young” might mean 20 to 45; to others, 18 to 30 or even 18 to 25.) Conventional Phase III trials typically require thousands of volunteers, but a human-challenge trial might need only 100. All participants would remain isolated in comfortable state-of-the-art facilities, with access to “excellent” health care. > > Who in the world would volunteer to get infected? > Actually, a lot of people, according to Josh Morrison and Sophie Rose, the co-founders of an organization called 1DaySooner, which has gathered signatures from over 8,000 potential volunteers. In The Washington Post, Mr. Morrison and Ms. Rose argue that the idea is not as radical as it sounds: According to one study, the coronavirus’s fatality rate for 20- to 29-year-olds in China was 3 in 10,000 — the same as that of kidney donation surgery and roughly twice that of childbirth in the United States. > > “We and many others are willing to take on what we see as an acceptable individual risk to serve the public and the people we care about,” they write. “As willing and well-informed volunteers, whose autonomy ought to be respected, we feel challenge trials are justified if they mean a vaccine arrives even one day sooner.” > > Would it be ethical? > We already allow people to risk their lives for the collective good, Dr. Lipsitch, Dr. Eyal and Dr. Smith say. Firefighters, for example, are routinely called upon to rush into burning buildings. (And today, of course, delivery drivers and grocery clerks are being asked to accept a level of risk they did not sign up for.) The question, then, is whether the study’s potential cost would be low enough to warrant its potential benefit. Besides recruiting only healthy, young volunteers and guaranteeing them the best care, the authors delineate four ways in which the study would minimize net risk: > > -The vaccine may protect some of those who receive it. > > -Absent an effective vaccine, a high proportion of the general population is likely to get Covid-19, so some volunteers may simply be pushing their illnesses forward. > > -Only people who already have an especially high risk of exposure would be recruited (e.g., New Yorkers). > > -Volunteers would get priority for any treatments that may become available. ---
**Author:** ![filmstar-en](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/50afbb/32.png) [@filmstar-en](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmstar-en)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2020, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-possible-oxford-vaccine/852821/17 "2020-05-03T01:16:50Z")
I am surprised that these ethical issues related to vaccine testing have not been more widely discussed in popular press which is unrelenting in its coverage of Covid-19. I guess they are waiting for some politician to stir up a controversy. :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2020, 5:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-possible-oxford-vaccine/852821/18 "2020-05-03T05:06:22Z")
Good luck to them, but the hoopla smacks of desperation. And I hope they don’t cut corners dangerously or we could have another thalidomide-style disaster on our hands. ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2020, 12:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-possible-oxford-vaccine/852821/19 "2020-05-03T12:11:54Z")
As I understand it the Oxford vaccine volunteers are generally medical staff and care workers who are come into contact with the virus in their day-to-day lives.