# The Presidential Race **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 21, 2008, 11:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-presidential-race/450083 "2008-05-21T11:12:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2008, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-presidential-race/450083/41 "2008-05-23T20:27:25Z")
While I think it’s kinda silly to put too much stock in the electoral map this early, I must note that SurveyUSA says Obama’s ahead [by 9 in Ohio](http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/05/23/ohio-vp-matchups/) and [by 7 in Virginia](http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/05/22/vice-presidential-matchups-virginia/). Anyone out there see Obama winning Ohio and Virginia, yet losing overall? Me either. Like I say, it doesn’t mean much, other than that things are going reasonably well for this early in the game. But it IS early, and there’s a lot of mud to be slung in the coming months. I put a lot more faith in Obama’s talents as a politician than in the polls. In addition to being able to give inspiring speeches and intelligent policy proposals, he’s already shown himself to be a very capable counterpuncher. Every time someone’s thrown shit at him so far, he’s done a great job of redirecting it back at its source. He can play this game. ---
**Author:** ![Cyberhwk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/7993a0/32.png) [@Cyberhwk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cyberhwk)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2008, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-presidential-race/450083/42 "2008-05-23T23:14:46Z")
[QUOTE=Biggirl] It could be that Mr. McKinnon has seen what the McCain people have planned and wants no part. If that’s the case, then get ready for some ugly stuff. [/QUOTE] IIRC, though, McKinnon mentioned not campaigning against Obama should he be the nominee LONG BEFORE he was the likely nominee. It was last fall IIRC. I’m not sure there was much in terms of opposition research for the general election when McCain’s primary candidacy was still in question. This latest news story wasn’t that he just decided, only that he was following through with his commitment. ---
**Author:** ![Biggirl](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biggirl/32/3294_2.png) [@Biggirl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biggirl)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2008, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-presidential-race/450083/43 "2008-05-23T23:32:56Z")
[QUOTE=Cyberhwk] IIRC, though, McKinnon mentioned not campaigning against Obama should he be the nominee LONG BEFORE he was the likely nominee. It was last fall IIRC. I’m not sure there was much in terms of opposition research for the general election when McCain’s primary candidacy was still in question. This latest news story wasn’t that he just decided, only that he was following through with his commitment. [/QUOTE] Well, good on him. Let’s hope this integrity thing keeps catching on. ---
**Author:** ![Beadalin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/3be4f8/32.png) [@Beadalin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Beadalin)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2008, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-presidential-race/450083/44 "2008-05-24T17:00:12Z")
> [@Phlosphr](#): > > He was polling better against McCain yesterday… today he’s not. The wind will shift 100 more times in the next 100 days. Just saw this [Newsweek](http://www.newsweek.com/id/138456?GT1=43002) article about how race could factor in for Obama vs. McCain: > [@](#): > > Among voters overall, however, Obama fares better, tying McCain 46 percent to 46 percent in a hypothetical match-up. (That’s down slightly, within the margin of error, from the last NEWSWEEK Poll, conducted in late April, in which Obama led McCain 47 percent to 44 percent). In that contest, he is boosted by a strong showing among nonwhites, leading McCain 68 percent to 25 percent (Clinton leads McCain 65 percent to 25 percent among nonwhites). But even this result shows some of the electoral challenges facing Obama in a year when Democrats generally appear to hold an electoral advantage–boasting a 15 point advantage in generic party identification over Republicans, 53 percent to 38 percent. Clinton fares slightly better against McCain: 48 percent to 44 percent (within the margin of error). She enjoys this slight edge even though Obama leads Clinton 50 percent to 42 percent as the choice of registered Democrats for the party’s nomination. Clinton’s white support is unusually high: at a comparable point in the 2004 election, Democratic nominee John Kerry received the support of 36 percent of white voters, compared to George W. Bush’s 48 percent, and in June of 2000, Bush led Al Gore 48 percent to 39 percent. ---
**Author:** ![Biggirl](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biggirl/32/3294_2.png) [@Biggirl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biggirl)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2008, 11:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-presidential-race/450083/45 "2008-05-27T11:13:38Z")
Bob Barr is now the Libertarian candidate. Will this hurt McCain or Obama more? I can see Republicans who dislike McCain going for Bob Barr, especially those hard rights who think McCain is a Democrat-Lite. And independants that seem to be swinging Obama’s way may find Barr a more easy choice. Also, is Nadar running? I keep seeing his crazy, wild-eyed ass on TV talking smack but I’m not sure if he’s an actual candidate. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2008, 11:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-presidential-race/450083/46 "2008-05-27T11:38:49Z")
I think with the copious amount of new democratic registrations this year, that Barr will effect McCain more than he will Obama. And with this presidential election coming at a time in the fall when every hard nosed College student who went into the summer not knowing who the nominee was going to be voting again for Obama in the fall, you will see a HUGE number come out for Obama against McCain on college campuses all over the US. I think they will help sail Obama right into that eliptical office. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2008, 12:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-presidential-race/450083/47 "2008-05-27T12:02:37Z")
Barr will draw mostly from McCain’s base. Barr is the anti-war, small-government option for disaffected Republican voters. [And Barr is polling better than any Libertarian candidate ever has:](http://www.ajc.com/r/content/news/stories/2008/05/25/libertarians_0526.html) > [@](#): > > Several pollsters included Barr in recent surveys about November’s general election. > > Barr got 7 percent against Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain, according to a poll Barr’s exploratory committee commissioned from Pulse Opinion Strategies in early April. **A poll by Rasmussen Reports from earlier this month showed Barr getting 6 percent nationally.** > > No Libertarian candidate for president has ever done that well. In 1980, Libertarian Edward Clark won 1.06 percent of the vote, and his 921,128 votes were the most ever for a Libertarian. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2008, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-presidential-race/450083/48 "2008-05-27T15:59:51Z")
[QUOTE=spoke-] Barr will draw mostly from McCain’s base. Barr is the anti-war, small-government option for disaffected Republican voters. [And Barr is polling better than any Libertarian candidate ever has:](http://www.ajc.com/r/content/news/stories/2008/05/25/libertarians_0526.html) [/QUOTE] If the election is close, Barr’s support will be greatly reduced by Election Day. But even 2% would be a big deal if it is a close one. If it’s not looking close as Election Day approaches, then Barr voters won’t have much reason to switch to McCain, and Barr’s supporters might tip a few states Obama’s way, making the EC map look even more lopsided than it would have otherwise been. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2008, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-presidential-race/450083/49 "2008-05-27T16:44:07Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] If the election is close, Barr’s support will be greatly reduced by Election Day. [/QUOTE] If Hillary were the nominee, I believe that would be true. I think a lot of Republican voters would “come home” at the end to keep her out of the White House. But with Obama, I’m not so sure. I just don’t get the sense that Republicans are strongly motivated to keep him from being elected. (Mark McKinnon’s resignation from the McCain Campaign, as cited in the OP, is a good example of this phenomenon.) With Obama as nominee, I think a lot of Republicans will be perfectly willing to cast protest votes for Barr. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2008, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-presidential-race/450083/50 "2008-05-27T17:41:51Z")
[QUOTE=spoke-] If Hillary were the nominee, I believe that would be true. I think a lot of Republican voters would “come home” at the end to keep her out of the White House. But with Obama, I’m not so sure. I just don’t get the sense that Republicans are strongly motivated to keep him from being elected. (Mark McKinnon’s resignation from the McCain Campaign, as cited in the OP, is a good example of this phenomenon.) With Obama as nominee, I think a lot of Republicans will be perfectly willing to cast protest votes for Barr. [/QUOTE] This is an odd feeling I was having as well. I was talking with family over the weekend at the quintessential Memorial Day picnic and several fammily members who are Republican were talking as you mention. They simply are not as against Obama becoming president as they might have been if Hillary were the nominee. Now a lot of that goes back well before Obama came to the table, but by in large I see a disconnect between the voracious GOP-ers and the run of the mill pubbies - which is where much of my extended family lay. Many don’t like McCain, and are sorry they don’t have a bigger pool to choose from. Also, their primary season was more of a “Hey look at me I’m running for President” and less a battle of the bulge like we saw with HRC and Obama. ---
**Author:** ![Gestalt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/90ced4/32.png) [@Gestalt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gestalt)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2008, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-presidential-race/450083/51 "2008-05-27T18:10:51Z")
[QUOTE=Cisco] I assume their thinking with Jindal is that having a man of color will offset what’s special about Barack. I could see this backfiring in their faces. For people to whom this matters, it levels the playing field. [/QUOTE] I’m gonna go ahead and say that if McCain picks Jindal as a running mate, he has the Indian vote in the bag. Not that the voting bloc is super huge, but still . . . Gestalt ---
**Author:** ![Merkwurdigliebe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/74df32/32.png) [@Merkwurdigliebe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merkwurdigliebe)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2008, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-presidential-race/450083/52 "2008-05-27T19:10:33Z")
By the way, just heard this on MSNBC: Apparently McCain is attending a fundraiser with bush where, get this, no cameras are allowed. Apparently Obama is going to tear into McCain later for this… The other problem with that votemaster place is that it doesn’t narrow it down to Obama and McCain. The national poll does. I realize this doesn’t make sense, but Obama has been seeing huge gains after they stop polling Hillary. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2008, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-presidential-race/450083/53 "2008-05-27T19:27:20Z")
[QUOTE=Merkwurdigliebe] The other problem with that votemaster place is that it doesn’t narrow it down to Obama and McCain. The national poll does. I realize this doesn’t make sense, but Obama has been seeing huge gains after they stop polling Hillary. [/QUOTE] Many of us have been expecting that to happen for a while. As soon as the camera and more importantly the stories are off the air waves Obama will see a dramatic increase. It’s going to be an interesting year! ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2008, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-presidential-race/450083/54 "2008-05-27T23:24:45Z")
[QUOTE=Cisco] I assume their thinking with Jindal is that having a man of color will offset what’s special about Barack. I could see this backfiring in their faces. For people to whom this matters, it levels the playing field. [/QUOTE] It could be more involved than that. Jindal is “a person of color” yes, but not an African-American. There is next to no history of prejudice against South Asians (can I say that instead of Indians to avoid confusion?) - in fact, their stereotype is about hard work and education, very attractive attributes in an candidate. Picking Jindal would, too, be a defense against the frequent Obama-supporter innuendo that failure to support the black guy is evidence of racism. And, given his trogloright social positions, would help shore up McCain’s support among that faction. If only he were older than 36 and had more than 1 year as Governor, he’d be a perfect choice. But it may look too much like pandering if he does it. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2008, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-presidential-race/450083/55 "2008-05-27T23:36:14Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] If only he were older than 36 and had more than 1 year as Governor, he’d be a perfect choice. But it may look too much like pandering if he does it. [/QUOTE] Sadly, this is exactly why McCain won’t do it. I’d give the guy a whole lot of credit if he did though. ---
**Author:** ![descamisado](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e480ec/32.png) [@descamisado](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/descamisado)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2008, 11:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-presidential-race/450083/56 "2008-05-27T23:40:36Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] It could be more involved than that. Jindal is “a person of color” yes, but not an African-American. There is next to no history of prejudice against South Asians (can I say that instead of Indians to avoid confusion?) - in fact, _their stereotype is about hard work and education, very attractive attributes in an candidate_. [/QUOTE] I sense there’s a corollary to that as it related to Obama. Did you mean for there to be one? Can you elaborate? I’m also curious what you think of the assertion upthread that McCain would have the Indian (South Asian) vote locked up if he picked Jindal. Would there be any meaning to Indians voting for McCain/Jindal en masse? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2008, 11:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-presidential-race/450083/57 "2008-05-27T23:52:27Z")
[QUOTE=5-4-Fighting] I sense there’s a corollary to that as it related to Obama. Did you mean for there to be one? Can you elaborate? [/quote] You did see the word “stereotype” in there, didn’t you? You know damn well what form that takes for blacks, insofar as it influences the part of the electorate we’re discussing. > [@](#): > > I’m also curious what you think of the assertion upthread that McCain would have the Indian (South Asian) vote locked up if he picked Jindal. Would there be any meaning to Indians voting for McCain/Jindal en masse? That sure looked like sarcasm to me. But, if anybody has something about Indian-Americans embracing Jindal as “their guy”, it should be an interesting read. The guy named himself after a _Brady Bunch_ character. True, he was only a kid then, but still … ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2008, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-presidential-race/450083/58 "2008-05-27T23:54:14Z")
[QUOTE=Phlosphr] Sadly, this is exactly why McCain won’t do it. I’d give the guy a whole lot of credit if he did though. [/QUOTE] Hmm? You’d give McCain credit for pandering? Or for making a VP choice on the basis of bald political calculation? If the latter, hell, everybody does that. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2008, 11:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-presidential-race/450083/59 "2008-05-27T23:57:09Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] Hmm? You’d give McCain credit for pandering? Or for making a VP choice on the basis of bald political calculation? If the latter, hell, everybody does that. [/QUOTE] Bald political calculation for sure. It would be a good strategic move. But public perception is what matters most. ---
**Author:** ![Biggirl](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biggirl/32/3294_2.png) [@Biggirl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biggirl)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2008, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-presidential-race/450083/60 "2008-05-28T00:02:10Z")
I’d think Jindal would be a good pick. He’s super right AND not an old white guy. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-presidential-race/450083.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-presidential-race/450083.md?page=4)