# The Professor who predicted Trump would win and then be impeached looks like an oracle **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 17, 2017, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-professor-who-predicted-trump-would-win-and-then-be-impeached-looks-like-an-oracle/786808 "2017-05-17T00:42:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![astro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9dc877/32.png) [@astro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astro)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-professor-who-predicted-trump-would-win-and-then-be-impeached-looks-like-an-oracle/786808/1 "2017-05-17T00:42:10Z")
Lest we forget [Professor predicted Trump win, says he will be impeached](http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/15/politics/allan-lichtman-professor-predicts-trump-impeachment-erin-burnett/) > [@](#): > > “The Republicans are nervous about Donald Trump,” Lichtman said. “He is a loose cannon. Nobody knows what he really believes or really where he stands. He can’t be controlled. The Republicans would vastly prefer to have Mike Pence, an absolutely predictable down-the-pipe conservative Republican.” ---
**Author:** ![marshmallow](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/df705f/32.png) [@marshmallow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/marshmallow)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-professor-who-predicted-trump-would-win-and-then-be-impeached-looks-like-an-oracle/786808/2 "2017-05-17T02:03:51Z")
During the election there were CTs that the Republicans would impeach Trump so they could get their boy Pence in there. That was at least wrong so far as they don’t seem particularly eager to do so. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 11:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-professor-who-predicted-trump-would-win-and-then-be-impeached-looks-like-an-oracle/786808/3 "2017-05-17T11:25:06Z")
> [@marshmallow](#): > > During the election there were CTs that the Republicans would impeach Trump so they could get their boy Pence in there. That was at least wrong so far as they don’t seem particularly eager to do so. I wouldn’t be so sure. Seems like several Republican lawmakers are riding the pace of Trump’s idiocies/treasons just slowly enough to avoid alienating most hard-core Trump voters, but quickly enough to keep up the momentum toward impeachment and resignation or removal. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 11:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-professor-who-predicted-trump-would-win-and-then-be-impeached-looks-like-an-oracle/786808/4 "2017-05-17T11:28:42Z")
He will not be impeached. Like Nixon, he will resign when told that impeachment and conviction are inevitable. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 11:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-professor-who-predicted-trump-would-win-and-then-be-impeached-looks-like-an-oracle/786808/5 "2017-05-17T11:34:30Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > He will not be impeached. Like Nixon, he will resign when told that impeachment and conviction are inevitable. I doubt it. Trump has a history of denying reality when it’s not telling him what he wants to hear. He’ll be convinced he’ll be able to make a deal to stay in office. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 11:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-professor-who-predicted-trump-would-win-and-then-be-impeached-looks-like-an-oracle/786808/6 "2017-05-17T11:42:24Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > I doubt it. Trump has a history of denying reality when it’s not telling him what he wants to hear. He’ll be convinced he’ll be able to make a deal to stay in office. Reality was that he had no chance of winning any delegates, then winning any States, then being nominated and then winning the Presidency… He takes Reality and does unmentionable things to it. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 1:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-professor-who-predicted-trump-would-win-and-then-be-impeached-looks-like-an-oracle/786808/7 "2017-05-17T13:33:59Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > He will not be impeached. Like Nixon, he will resign when told that impeachment and conviction are inevitable. I agree. The only problem is, he won’t be told that, because it won’t be inevitable. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 2:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-professor-who-predicted-trump-would-win-and-then-be-impeached-looks-like-an-oracle/786808/8 "2017-05-17T14:15:55Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > He will not be impeached. Like Nixon, he will resign when told that impeachment and conviction are inevitable. Well, I’m going to say that if impeachment and conviction are clearly inevitable and Trump resigns as a result, I’d consider the prediction correct and say the guy deserves to win any bets he made. Nixon may have chosen to jump but his own party was about to push. Close enough. And Trump is so stubborn and stupid I would not be surprised if the dumb asshole fought all the way to the bitter end, desperately trying to threaten Senators who had long since stopped taking his phone calls. He’s proven the doubters wrong again and again. His own track record will contribute to his refusal to give up. Nixon, remember, was a veteran politician. He served in Congress. He served as Vice President. The guy knew more about politics than most people could imagine knowing. When his own party viziers came into his office and said “Pack your things or we’ll do it for you” he knew the jig was up. He knew Barry Goldwater was not shitting him. Trump doesn’t have that. If Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan walk into his office, sit down, and tell him straight up the math says his Presidency is doomed, he will say they are Weak and Sad, and that he can make a deal, the best deal. ---
**Author:** ![SmartAlecCat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/67e7ee/32.png) [@SmartAlecCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SmartAlecCat)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-professor-who-predicted-trump-would-win-and-then-be-impeached-looks-like-an-oracle/786808/9 "2017-05-17T14:44:58Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > I doubt it. Trump has a history of denying reality when it’s not telling him what he wants to hear. He’ll be convinced he’ll be able to make a deal to stay in office. He often says he never settles lawsuits too, but he still settles them in the end… ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-professor-who-predicted-trump-would-win-and-then-be-impeached-looks-like-an-oracle/786808/10 "2017-05-17T16:48:54Z")
Trump will not be removed from Office. I am willing to bet on this. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-professor-who-predicted-trump-would-win-and-then-be-impeached-looks-like-an-oracle/786808/11 "2017-05-17T16:50:03Z")
> [@marshmallow](#): > > During the election there were CTs that the Republicans would impeach Trump so they could get their boy Pence in there. That was at least wrong so far as they don’t seem particularly eager to do so. Bricker would point out the impeaching Trump would not get Pence in. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-professor-who-predicted-trump-would-win-and-then-be-impeached-looks-like-an-oracle/786808/12 "2017-05-17T17:24:27Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Bricker would point out the impeaching Trump would not get Pence in. He’d be right. Surely you are not going to this _again_, are you??? ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-professor-who-predicted-trump-would-win-and-then-be-impeached-looks-like-an-oracle/786808/13 "2017-05-17T17:42:47Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > He’d be right. Surely you are not going to this _again_, are you??? Maybe I am wrong. Hey **marshmallow** ,\*\* astro\*\*, etc, when you used the word "Impeachment’, you meant it as shorthand to _“Impeached and removed from Office” j_ust like everyone else does, right? ---
**Author:** ![erysichthon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/d07c76/32.png) [@erysichthon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/erysichthon)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-professor-who-predicted-trump-would-win-and-then-be-impeached-looks-like-an-oracle/786808/14 "2017-05-17T19:22:57Z")
> [@marshmallow](#): > > During the election there were CTs that the Republicans would impeach Trump so they could get their boy Pence in there. That was at least wrong so far as they don’t seem particularly eager to do so. I agree. Mostly what we’re seeing from the GOP now is a lot of excuses and wagon-circling. Even if Comey testifies publicly, they’ll dismiss it as the ranting of a disgruntled former employee. I do think there’s a nonzero chance that Trump will resign in a fit of pique one of these days. He’s erratic enough to pull something like that. But _impeached by his own party?_ He’d have to do something exponentially worse than anything he’s done already before that would even be considered. The Comey stuff doesn’t even come close. ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-professor-who-predicted-trump-would-win-and-then-be-impeached-looks-like-an-oracle/786808/15 "2017-05-17T19:26:50Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Maybe I am wrong. Hey **marshmallow** ,\*\* astro\*\*, etc, when you used the word "Impeachment’, you meant it as shorthand to _“Impeached and removed from Office” j_ust like everyone else does, right? I believe the proper term is “Frankenstein’s Impeachment” ---
**Author:** ![erysichthon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/d07c76/32.png) [@erysichthon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/erysichthon)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-professor-who-predicted-trump-would-win-and-then-be-impeached-looks-like-an-oracle/786808/16 "2017-05-17T19:29:21Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Maybe I am wrong. Hey **marshmallow** ,\*\* astro\*\*, etc, when you used the word "Impeachment’, you meant it as shorthand to _“Impeached and removed from Office” j_ust like everyone else does, right? No. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-professor-who-predicted-trump-would-win-and-then-be-impeached-looks-like-an-oracle/786808/17 "2017-05-17T19:44:56Z")
In a nation with as many pundits, analysts, and think-tankers as we have, it’s totally believable that at least one of them would have predicted Trump’s election and impeachment. Also, Lichtman heavily hedged on his prediction that Trump would win. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-professor-who-predicted-trump-would-win-and-then-be-impeached-looks-like-an-oracle/786808/18 "2017-05-17T19:45:08Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > … If Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan walk into his office, sit down, and tell him straight up the math says his Presidency is doomed, he will say they are Weak and Sad, and that he can make a deal, the best deal. It’s also quite possible that Trump would find the prospect of impeachment proceedings to be _attractive_. This is a man who, shall we say, likes to be the center of attention. The bottom line is money–specifically, the _humiliation_ of being seen not to have an impressive amount of it. If, hypothetically, the GOP does decide they’ll lose the House in 2018 unless they artfully pry out Trump, then they could deploy the most powerful leverage they have against him: the potential revelation of the extent to which his failing businesses have been bailed out (mostly by surrogates for Putin). If they say “we will make public all these incontrovertible facts that show how badly you’ve run your businesses and how little net worth you actually have—OR you can resign for “health reasons” and keep all you’ve amassed since Election Day—your call”…Trump might cave. IF he can paint it as “winning,” of course. We’ll all have to tolerate years of him bragging about how much he made during the months after November 8, but at least the threat of massive global upheaval will have been averted. But the threat of Being Impeached, in and of itself, might not be any threat at all when it comes to Trump. He’d be ubiquitous, world-wide, on every media platform there is–and loving it. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-professor-who-predicted-trump-would-win-and-then-be-impeached-looks-like-an-oracle/786808/19 "2017-05-17T20:43:42Z")
> [@Sherrerd](#): > > But the threat of Being Impeached, in and of itself, might not be any threat at all when it comes to Trump. He’d be ubiquitous, world-wide, on every media platform there is–and loving it. [And loving it](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zWxos6lArrU). 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-professor-who-predicted-trump-would-win-and-then-be-impeached-looks-like-an-oracle/786808/20 "2017-05-17T20:46:41Z")
Predicting that Trump would be elected, and impeached, is not that far-fetched a prediction. Prior to Election Day, how many Americans predicted Trump would win? Probably about 20%. Given the type of person he is, how many people would have predicted that, if elected, Trump would get impeached? Probably 30% or more of Americans. There is some overlap between that 20% mentioned above and the 30% here. So maybe 5% of Americans would have predicted, “Trump wins, then gets impeached.” Not that far-fetched at all. This professor is 1 out of 20. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-professor-who-predicted-trump-would-win-and-then-be-impeached-looks-like-an-oracle/786808.md?page=2)