Just throwing the ball downfield means the deep man, who is following the ball has a pretty good chance for an interception. If the ball is thrown nowhere near a receiver then there is intentional grounding because the QB is in the pocket.
You say the major concern is a sack. With the blitz there is a huge chance that the ball will get tipped or they get to the QB and cause a fumble. If he’s running around and gets hit behind the line that just improves the field position for the other team.
Except that there’s a higher chance of a sack, or not running out the clock, and you end up with the opponent in field goal range rather than deep in their own side of the field.
Not really. Deep ball INTs are almost never returned at all, much less for a TD.
Marley, there are two big differences.
No long snapper.
A significantly reduced chance that the ball, if intercepted, gets returned for a TD. A punt always over kicks the line of scrimmage, but a deep pass gives your players time to get downfield ahead of the ball.
And, for the second time, deep balls don’t get tipped.
I would have thought that a deep INT was the last thing the defense wants, as long as there is a second or more on the clock. Let the ball fall incomplete and the ball is turned over at the line of scrimmage. Field goal ensues. Game over man. Game over.
It should be, but it’s notable how often defensive players will go for the deep interception on 4th down, when their team would be much better off if they’d slapped the ball to the ground.
Apparently, this is not something coaches cover and the appeal of the INT is just too great.
That happened in the Saints Falcons game yesterday. Announcers were gushing over the Saints INT, and I was thinking “Man, the Falcons totally flipped the field.” That would have been a hell of a punt.
ETA: It was only 3rd down, though. I totally get why he made the catch, but it wasn’t all that awesome for the Saints.
It’s impossible to quantify the risk involved, but I think it speaks volumes that coaches will do damn near anything to force a punt with time winding down. Botched snap, blocked punt, or long return. There’s just so much more that can go very, very wrong when your punt unit is on the field, and I’d suspect that one of those 3 things happens a higher percentage of the time than a pass play getting totally blown up. I don’t know for sure, though.
How many times have you seen a punt with 8 or fewer seconds on the clock? It doesn’t happen often, and I’ve definitely seen coaches try to run out the clock in that scenario.
Returning to this question: what other option do they have? If you want to get the ball back and have not forced a turnover, that means forcing a punt.
I’m sure I have not seen it happen very often. But with 13 seconds left, running out the clock would be very difficult. With 8 seconds it might be plausible but deep in your own territory it’s still a gamble. If you’re at midfield or in Florida territory, turning the ball over on downs and getting a few more seconds off the clock might be worthwhile because you eliminate the risk of a punt return TD and Hail Marys usually don’t work. But given the choices ULL had, a punt seems better than a crazy scramble. The scramble means the QB is going deeper into his own territory, it makes it less likely the linemen will be able to block effectively, and if he throws the ball deep you still have the risk of a turnover, which is worse than a punt return because you’re defending it with offense instead of your punt return team.
But in this case you’re defending against a return with players who you know will be at the place where the ball is catchable when it arrives. So the chance of a long return looks to be a lot lower than for the typical punt - or the typical INT, for that matter.
So what? On a punt return a couple of guys charge down the field toward where the punt is going. This chuck play is pretty similar to a punt you have the offense defending the punt instead of the punt coverage team. It’s just not good. I’m pretty sure defenses practice interception returns and cornerback and safeties are more familiar with how to execute them than offenses are in how to stop them. For offenses it’s pretty much ‘everybody run after the guy with the ball.’ I’d rather take the risk of having a punt blocked than the risk an interception is going to be returned for a TD. It’s just more managed.