# The Race for the GOP Nomination - Post-Thanksgiving Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 28, 2015, 12:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819 "2015-11-28T12:40:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 13
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2015, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/241 "2015-12-21T18:39:28Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Would his vote make a difference? I don’t think most people care if someone running for president spends less time at his day job. I’m sure he’d show up if need be. Maybe? If it does make a difference, it’ll be because the argument is already out there that he’s unwilling to do his day job, but for some reason also refuses to resign AND because this was actually a pretty huge vote. It’s one thing to be missing the day-to-day nonsense no one ever hears about. But to not show up to vote against a eighty-teen-quadtrillion dollar spending bill, most of which is going straight to Planned Parenthood’s abortion camps, may go over rather poorly among Republican primary voters. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2015, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/242 "2015-12-21T18:43:53Z")
> [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](#): > > But to not show up to vote against a eighty-teen-quadtrillion dollar spending bill, most of which is going straight to Planned Parenthood’s abortion camps, may go over rather poorly among Republican primary voters. Holy cow! MOST of the budget is going to Planned Parenthood to pay for abortion in spite of the generation-old Hyde Amendment? Why isn’t that the lead story on the news? ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2015, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/243 "2015-12-21T18:59:57Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Holy cow! MOST of the budget is going to Planned Parenthood to pay for abortion in spite of the generation-old Hyde Amendment? Why isn’t that the lead story on the news? I’m not sure if I whooshed you or if you’re whooshing me, but that line is supposed to reflect Republican primary voters’ understanding of the budget that just passed. Just so we’re all clear. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2015, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/244 "2015-12-21T19:03:37Z")
> [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](#): > > I’m not sure if I whooshed you or if you’re whooshing me, but that line is supposed to reflect Republican primary voters’ understanding of the budget that just passed. Just so we’re all clear. OK, I was the one whooshed then. I thought you were serious but it appears you were parodying the GOP electorate. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2015, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/245 "2015-12-21T20:10:18Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Dunno about ‘easily,’ but I think he’ll win the state. Except that on the GOP side, there’s nothing complicated about it. You show up, cast a ballot, and leave. > > Now on the _Democratic_ side, it’s genuinely complicated. But that’s the thing about caucuses: the parties run them, not the state. So each party runs its caucus independently of the other. [Here is the process.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucuses). In a normal primary you go to your normal polling place any time during the day, enter the voting booth, pull the lever, and leave. In the caucus process you go to a meeting in a different place and hear candidate statements, and then vote for delegates. It sounds like a bigger time commitment. Now, losing Iowa is no big deal. But if Trump loses it because of incompetent organization, it will hurt his claims that he is so brilliant that we should just trust him to get all the impossible things he claims to want to do done. That may hurt him. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2015, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/246 "2015-12-21T21:07:51Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > [Here is the process.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucuses). In a normal primary you go to your normal polling place any time during the day, enter the voting booth, pull the lever, and leave. In the caucus process you go to a meeting in a different place and hear candidate statements, and then vote for delegates. It sounds like a bigger time commitment. Am I missing something at your link? All it says about the voting on the GOP side is that it’s a secret ballot, and unlike in past years, that balloting is the basis for selecting delegates. True, it’s not like a primary in that the polls aren’t open all day, the voting only happens during the evening, but that’s hardly a big deal. I don’t see where it says that people have to spend time listening to anyone give speeches or read statements or anything unless they are inclined to do so. > [@](#): > > Now, losing Iowa is no big deal. But if Trump loses it because of incompetent organization, it will hurt his claims that he is so brilliant that we should just trust him to get all the impossible things he claims to want to do done. That may hurt him. Depends on whether he re-takes the lead in Iowa polling. If Cruz continues to lead in the polls for that state, then few will expect Trump to win Iowa, and assuming he finishes second, I wouldn’t expect it to have much effect on his chances for NH. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2015, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/247 "2015-12-21T23:13:01Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Am I missing something at your link? All it says about the voting on the GOP side is that it’s a secret ballot, and unlike in past years, that balloting is the basis for selecting delegates. True, it’s not like a primary in that the polls aren’t open all day, the voting only happens during the evening, but that’s hardly a big deal. > > I don’t see where it says that people have to spend time listening to anyone give speeches or read statements or anything unless they are inclined to do so. My understanding of the previous process was that everyone went to the caucus places and raised their hands to vote for delegates. Now they have a secret ballot. What I don’t see is that they can wander in and out and vote at any time. That would seem to turn the caucus into a short primary. I suppose you don’t have to go on time, but you might not be able to leave early. > [@](#): > > Depends on whether he re-takes the lead in Iowa polling. If Cruz continues to lead in the polls for that state, then few will expect Trump to win Iowa, and assuming he finishes second, I wouldn’t expect it to have much effect on his chances for NH. Losing isn’t the issue. The quoted Times article mentions that they are way under their goals in recruiting volunteers, and people who expressed signs of interest haven’t been called back. Doing a good job and losing won’t hurt him at all. Botching the mechanics of running a ground game and losing will. Maybe. The indicator of this would be if his results are much worse than his polling numbers. It would make his lead in the polls seem a lot more beatable. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2015, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/248 "2015-12-21T23:38:24Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > I wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple more of the hopeless candidates drop out . Trampling around the cold in Iowa and New Hampshire can’t be as appealing as spending the holidays at home. There’s only a month left until the Iowa caucuses after the new year. My understanding is that Graham timed his suspension to be before the filing deadline to be on the North Carolina Primary Ballot, with the realization that losing big in his home state (as he would be bound to do if he appeared on the ballot) wouldn’t do his political career any favors. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2015, 7:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/249 "2015-12-22T07:06:30Z")
Graham is from South Carolina. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2015, 8:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/250 "2015-12-22T08:22:50Z")
Well, why didn’t he stay there?! ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2015, 2:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/251 "2015-12-22T14:19:15Z")
[Here](http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/01/the-great-republican-revolt/419118/) is the best analyses I’ve read about the current state of the Republican Party. Some choice bits: > [@](#): > > Against all evidence, GOP donors interpreted the Tea Party as a movement in favor of the agenda of the Wall Street Journal editorial page. Yeah, they pretty much assumed that hating Obama = loving the GOP orthodoxy. > [@](#): > > And yet, within hours of Romney’s defeat, Republican donors, talkers, and officials converged on the maximally self-exculpating explanation. The problem had not been the plan to phase out Medicare for people younger than 55. Or the lack of ideas about how to raise wages. Or the commitment to ending health-insurance coverage for millions of working-age Americans. Or the anthems to wealth creation and entrepreneurship in a country increasingly skeptical of both. No, the problem was the one element of Romney’s message they had never liked anyway: immigration enforcement. Spot on. Seems to me that the donor class is hopelessly out of touch with the people that they wish to rule. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2015, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/252 "2015-12-22T16:12:55Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > My understanding of the previous process was that everyone went to the caucus places and raised their hands to vote for delegates. Now they have a secret ballot. What I don’t see is that they can wander in and out and vote at any time. That would seem to turn the caucus into a short primary. I suppose you don’t have to go on time, but you might not be able to leave early. I don’t see where you can, but I don’t see where you can’t, either. FWIW, they’ve had a secret ballot for awhile, but it was non-binding: you could cast your secret ballot and leave without sticking around for delegate selection. But that secret ballot’s results were reported as the Iowa caucus’ results on the GOP side. Now the secret ballot determines delegate allocation - that’s the change from previous years. So there’s presumably nothing afterwards to stick around for. So it sounds to me like you may have to cast your vote in a fairly limited window of time, but other than that, it’s pretty much a primary. > [@](#): > > Losing isn’t the issue. The quoted Times article mentions that they are way under their goals in recruiting volunteers, and people who expressed signs of interest haven’t been called back. Doing a good job and losing won’t hurt him at all. Botching the mechanics of running a ground game and losing will. Maybe. > The indicator of this would be if his results are much worse than his polling numbers. It would make his lead in the polls seem a lot more beatable. Certainly that’s true. While I personally doubt that anyone outside of political geekdom will know whether he botched the mechanics of a ground game, a lot more people will notice if he’s polling 30% but only gets 15%. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2015, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/253 "2015-12-22T16:30:20Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Spot on. Seems to me that the donor class is hopelessly out of touch with the people that they wish to rule. I don’t entirely agree, a standard conservative + immigration reform candidate would be scary in the general election. If the gang of 8 bill had passed i would be terrified of facing Rubio in the general election. Giving the Tea Party what they want is basically out of the question, just because the donor class understands this doesn’t make them the out of touch ones. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2015, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/254 "2015-12-22T17:48:29Z")
Via [Benen](http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/tuesdays-campaign-round-122215): > [@](#): > > In South Carolina, Lindsey Graham’s state finance chairman quickly transitioned to Jeb Bush’s team, as did nine other members of the Republican senator’s state-based operation. If ‘the party’ has decided it’s getting behind Rubio, this is a funny way of showing it. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2015, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/255 "2015-12-22T18:10:26Z")
If I’m not mistaken, no Bush has ever lost a primary or general election in South Carolina. Pappy and W each went 4 for 4 (2 primaries, 2 general), so it might be that SC voters for whatever reason just likes the Bushes, as do the SC pols. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2015, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/256 "2015-12-22T19:07:16Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > If I’m not mistaken, no Bush has ever lost a primary or general election in South Carolina. Pappy and W each went 4 for 4 (2 primaries, 2 general), so it might be that SC voters for whatever reason just likes the Bushes, as do the SC pols. The general election hardly counts, because I don’t know what it would take for a Republican to lose SC these days. And the 1992 and 2004 primaries really don’t count either, when Bushes Sr. and Jr. faced minimal and zero challenges, respectively. So we’re really just talking 1988 and 2000. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2015, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/257 "2015-12-23T01:57:59Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Certainly that’s true. While I personally doubt that anyone outside of political geekdom will know whether he botched the mechanics of a ground game, a lot more people will notice if he’s polling 30% but only gets 15%. They’ll notice if the press and his opponents make it the story. He has no track record, so his entire story is “trust me. I’m so smart I get the best people and it works.” If his best people screw up the campaign, there goes his story. And I’m sure Jeb! will make sure everyone knows. Whether his supporters are smart enough to get this is another matter. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2015, 11:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/258 "2015-12-23T11:01:01Z")
If he’s polling 30% but only gets 24%, the story won’t be “Trump came in way under expectations.” The story will be that nobody really knew what to expect, and now we have a measurement. And if it’s a measurement that suggests that he can win primaries even after applying the now-appropriate deflator to his poll numbers, that’s gonna be the story too. The story will only be that he came in way under expectations if he comes in WAY under expectations, because nobody really **knows** what to expect. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2015, 11:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/259 "2015-12-23T11:12:08Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Via [Benen](http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/tuesdays-campaign-round-122215): If ‘the party’ has decided it’s getting behind Rubio, this is a funny way of showing it. Bush is campaigning for real. Rubio is just waiting to be the default guy. It’s the Rudy Giuliani strategy all over again. One thing about the Bushes, much like the Clintons, they don’t give up until the fat lady sings. Jeb knows he’s polling like shit, but he looks around him and sees Rubio just waiting for the nomination to fall into his lap, Christie betting it all on NH, and Kasich pretty much forgotten and also betting it all on NH(but with less chance to win it than Christie). I think the way Jeb’s team sees the race is that if Cruz wins IA and Trump wins NH, Jeb is in the best position to be the party choice. But if Christie wins NH, I think the race comes down to Christie vs. Cruz. Christie could very well be John McCain. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2015, 12:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/260 "2015-12-23T12:02:34Z")
Who cares the way Team Jeb sees the race? What surprises me is that a whole bunch of guys who know SC and who _weren’t_ part of Jeb’s team a few days ago, decided to sign up for it. That suggests that the party isn’t exactly lining up behind Rubio yet. But it isn’t exactly lining up behind Jeb either, given that this is something of an exceptional event lately. Nate Silver says there’s still time for the Establishment faction to unite behind a single candidate, but time’s slipping away, and that’s not the way things are moving yet. Quite the opposite, really. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819.md?page=12) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819.md?page=14)