# The Race for the GOP Nomination - Post-Thanksgiving Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 28, 2015, 12:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819 "2015-11-28T12:40:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 24
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2016, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/461 "2016-01-19T19:57:02Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > I’m amazed at my uncanny predictive ability. Of course, I said months ago that Bush was a foregone conclusion. At least he’s still running! I was certain that Scott Walker would be the Republican nominee. So if I ever tell you how clear my crystal ball is, feel free to remind me of that. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2016, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/462 "2016-01-19T20:07:42Z")
As the Draft Romney! movement gathers more momentum… ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2016, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/463 "2016-01-19T21:23:53Z")
Could you honestly say he wouldn’t be a better candidate than any of the rest of them? ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2016, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/464 "2016-01-19T21:27:39Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Kasich is SURGING! > > [RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-3350.html) > > Up to 20 and 2nd place in NH. It would look like an outlier, except that the last two polls showed him at 12 and then 14. More proof that ARG is a garbage poll. How contemptuously can they view the people of New Hampshire to think Kasich the Kermit the Frog is going to get second in NH? > [@BobLibDem](#): > > As President Giuliani can tell you, we can’t put the crown on The Donald quite yet. This time 8 years ago a Giuliani-Clinton final was pretty much a given. What really seems to be unique about this year is near universal disgust for the mainstream GOP candidates. I’m thinking that Rubio gets the establishment lane while Trump and Cruz split the extremists- normally you’d think this greases the skids for Rubio but I’m not sure even being the only mainstream guy will be enough. The difference is as pointed out, Giuliani had nonexistant support in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. TRUMP is leading or at least close to leading in all of them. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2016, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/465 "2016-01-19T23:00:47Z")
Palin has endorsed Trump, so he’s now doomed. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2016, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/466 "2016-01-20T00:19:29Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > Could you honestly say he wouldn’t be a better candidate than any of the rest of them? Nope. Swimsuit competition in a leper colony. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2016, 1:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/467 "2016-01-20T01:06:27Z")
You can keep the tip. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2016, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/468 "2016-01-20T01:47:26Z")
I’ll keep an eye out for you. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2016, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/469 "2016-01-21T18:50:24Z")
Lots of new polls in the past day or so. [Iowa](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-republican/#polls-only): Douglas Fulmer & Assoc. 1/18-19: Cruz 27%, Trump 25%, Carson 11%, Rubio 9%, Bush 7%. [del]Lorax[/del] Loras College 1/13-18: Trump 26%, Cruz 25%, Rubio 13%, Carson 8%, Bush 6%. Everyone else is at or under 4% in both polls. Looks like Iowa’s held steady over the past week or two: Trump and Cruz in a dead heat, Rubio still slightly ahead of Carson for third. [New Hampshire](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/new-hampshire-republican/#polls-only): UNH, 1/13-18: Trump 34%, Cruz 14%, Rubio 10%, Bush 10%, Kasich, Christie, Paul 6% each, Fiorina 4%. Gravis, 1/15-18: Trump 35%, Kasich 15%, Cruz 10%, Rubio 9%, Christie 8%, Bush 7%, Fiorina 5%. Everyone else is at or below 3% in both polls. Trump’s lead continues to hold, and there’s a bit of a jumble way down below him. The Kasich surge to 20% that ARG showed was clearly an outlier, but his UNH number looks similarly outlier-ish. And the notion that Establishment voters will coalesce around one candidate is increasingly problematic, because nobody knows which candidate to get behind. However, my takeaway from the Gallup favorable/unfavorables of the various candidates among Republicans that Nate Silver includes [here](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/) is that Rubio’s the only one who’s got much of a chance of turning a good NH showing into something more, but he continues to fail to break out of the pack. And if he’s third in Iowa, but only barely ahead of Carson, that’s not going to give him much of a bounce going into NH. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2016, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/470 "2016-01-21T19:40:11Z")
Nate Silver says that one of his big reasons for being skeptical of Trump was that, surely, the GOP Establishment would want to bring him down, and would ultimately succeed. But he says he’s had to change his views on that, since (a) there hasn’t been any evidence of a concerted attack on Trump, and (b) to the extent that the Establishment is ganging up on anyone, it’s Cruz. My reasons for thinking Trump would eventually fold were different. My longtime take is that even most of the GOP base expects their Presidential candidate to look, well, _Presidential_. [The only time I thought Trump might be self-destructing](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=18855717&postcount=457) was an incident where he seemed to be turning into too much of a buffoon for even his fans to get behind. But then the ISIS terror attacks in Paris happened the very next day, and blew that out of the minds of anyone who’d noticed to begin with. The other part of that that I thought that Republicans might eventually wise up to was that there are no details, no nitty-gritty, behind any of Trump’s proposals. They’re all pretty much off the top of his head, like your blowhard Fox-watching uncle at Thanksgiving. My belief used to be that while most people weren’t going to be interested in those details, they at least wanted the sense that those details were _there_, that their candidate had some clue of how to make his ideas happen. It’s appeared for awhile that that’s not the case now, but I figured that if GOP voters still cared about that sort of thing, it would show up as we got close to voting time in the early states. So far, though, not a sign of it. And of course, most of the other candidates’ policy proposals have little more detail than Trump’s do. Also, consider the attempts of his rivals to challenge him. He’s wiped the floor with Bush. He took Cruz’ ‘New York values’ bit and tossed it back in his face. And Rubio seems to be more interested in taking on Christie and Kasich than going after Trump. Everybody wants _somebody else_ to knock Trump off his pedestal. All this is by way of saying that, damn, Trump could actually be the GOP nominee. It’s harder and harder to see what, exactly, will keep this from happening. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2016, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/471 "2016-01-21T20:10:41Z")
NOW is it different? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2016, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/472 "2016-01-21T20:27:11Z")
Sure, just not in a way that seems connected to the argument you made in the other thread: > [@You know what this election reminds me of right now?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/you-know-what-this-election-reminds-me-of-right-now/741461/1): > > That moment before the surgeon starts to cut. > > For all that the pundits - and us - will waste ink and pixels on how things are going the Republican contest is so unusual that no one knows what the hell is going to happen. Usually by this time there’s a clear path for a few candidates. This time there’s merely strangeness. > > With Iowa just a month plus a few days away we’re left with a sense that anything could happen. The GOP leadership appears to be reduced to hoping that Trump pulls a Dean and his supporters don’t turn out in Iowa and New Hampshire. Nothing they’ve seemed to do has turned the polls effectively. I’m convinced they believe that Trump will be a disaster in the general and downballot. The best alternative, Cruz, is the same way but to a lesser degree. > > It’s a strange one. We can talk all we want - and we will, God knows - but having to wait for a completely unpredictable outcome is jarring. At that point, the race was really down to three candidates - and still is, although Rubio seems to be running out of time, and Cruz isn’t looking as strong as he was a few weeks ago. There’s no ‘anything could happen’ here. It’s just ‘WTF, the unlikely candidate who’s leading in the polls could actually win.’ ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 10:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/473 "2016-01-22T10:22:30Z")
Whoa! [Two new polls in Iowa](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-republican/#polls-only) have Trump up by double digits over Cruz. CNN-ORC 1/15-20: Trump 37, Cruz 26, Rubio 14, Carson 6, everyone else 3 or under. Emerson College 1/18-20: Trump 33, Cruz 23, Rubio 14, Carson 9, everyone else 5 or under. There has been one last theory of how Trump will lose this, a combination of ‘his voters won’t show up, he has no ground game’ and the old ‘momentum’ chestnut. The idea is that once Cruz beats Trump in Iowa, due in part to Trump’s supporters not voting in anything like their poll numbers, Trump’s NH supporters will get discouraged and will switch allegiance and/or vote at even lower rates there. And the Establishment-lane voters will coalesce sufficiently around one of their guys so that the lucky Establishment candidate outpolls Trump in NH, and it’s all over for Trump from there. Maybe that’s how it would play out, maybe not. But it depends on Trump not winning Iowa. And now, with the Iowa caucuses only 10 days away, it looks like Trump’s moving into a big lead there. If he wins Iowa, it’s hard to see how it’s not game over. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 11:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/474 "2016-01-22T11:07:51Z")
It’s far from game over, because I still don’t think Trump can get a majority. It just makes a brokered convention more likely, as Trump enters with about 40% of the delegates and 3 or 4 other candidates come in with fewer, but significant, delegates adding up to the other 60%. I think it’s more likely game over for Trump if Trump loses Iowa. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 12:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/475 "2016-01-22T12:08:13Z")
You hope. I don’t see a narrow loss to Cruz in Iowa hurting Trump’s NH support. And after a NH win, where’s someone going to slow him down? If he goes into the convention with 40%, with none of the other candidates particularly close, and gets denied the nomination, that will rupture the party, whether or not he runs as an independent. But if he’s the leading candidate and gets 35-40% of the votes in the primaries, he will get a greater share of delegates than that. First of all, there are some large winner-take-all states (FL, OH, NJ) which he would likely win. Second, the states that _aren’t_ winner-take-all have their delegates distributed in various ways, and pretty much any way other than strictly proportional division of delegates magnifies the advantage of the candidate winning with a plurality. Some are strictly proportional, some are proportional among those who clear a threshold (and if only 2 do and Trump has a plurality, then he wins a majority of that state’s delegates). Some are WTA by Congressional district (CA) or the winner of each district gets 2 of that district’s 3 delegates (GA, TX). The fact is that Trump could easily rack up 51% of the delegates with only 35-40% of the votes, if nobody else is particularly close. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 12:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/476 "2016-01-22T12:27:21Z")
Those large winner take all states have favorite sons in the race. Favorite sons who might be motivated to stay in just to deny him delegates. Would be nice if Bush would get out though. Then Florida could be left for Rubio. ---
**Author:** ![Alley\_Dweller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alley_dweller/32/430_2.png) [@Alley\_Dweller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alley_Dweller)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 12:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/477 "2016-01-22T12:30:40Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > You hope. > > I don’t see a narrow loss to Cruz in Iowa hurting Trump’s NH support. And after a NH win, where’s someone going to slow him down? > > If he goes into the convention with 40%, with none of the other candidates particularly close, and gets denied the nomination, that will rupture the party, whether or not he runs as an independent. > > But if he’s the leading candidate and gets 35-40% of the votes in the primaries, he will get a greater share of delegates than that. > > First of all, there are some large winner-take-all states (FL, OH, NJ) which he would likely win. > > Second, the states that _aren’t_ winner-take-all have their delegates distributed in various ways, and pretty much any way other than strictly proportional division of delegates magnifies the advantage of the candidate winning with a plurality. > > Some are strictly proportional, some are proportional among those who clear a threshold (and if only 2 do and Trump has a plurality, then he wins a majority of that state’s delegates). Some are WTA by Congressional district (CA) or the winner of each district gets 2 of that district’s 3 delegates (GA, TX). The fact is that Trump could easily rack up 51% of the delegates with only 35-40% of the votes, if nobody else is particularly close. As I have pointed out previously, as the Republican convention rules stand, no candidate can be put into nomination at the convention unless he has majorities (not pluralities) in at least 8 states (including the non-states like PR, DC, VI, etc). [(Rule 40(b), pdf)](https://s3.amazonaws.com/prod-static-ngop-pbl/docs/Rules_of_the_Republican+Party_FINAL_S14090314.pdf) If Trump gets 40% of the vote, what are the odds that any other candidate can overcome this hurdle? ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 12:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/478 "2016-01-22T12:41:31Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > … Would be nice if Bush would get out though. Then Florida could be left for Rubio. I’ve only lived in FL for almost 2 years now. And I’m mostly in suburban greater Miami, which is not natural Trump country within FL. So I’m not ideally suited to giving anecdata about FL voters. But my man-on-the-scene reporting is that substantially all the home made yard signs or professionally printed bumper stickers I see are for Trump. I have yet to see my first self-labeled Jeb! supporter. The Trump stickers do heavily skew towards the jacked-up pickup trucks with fishing or hunting stickers on them. But I also see them on nondescript [del]gray[/del] silver Toyotas. It’s early days yet, but I also see more leftover Obama/Biden stickers than I do fresh HRC stickers. I’m not sure what to make of that. Overall around here there’s not yet much evidence of an impending election. In absolute numbers I’m not seeing very many stickers and signs. But the few I do see are substantially all Trump. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 1:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/479 "2016-01-22T13:18:41Z")
> [@Alley\_Dweller](#): > > As I have pointed out previously, as the Republican convention rules stand, no candidate can be put into nomination at the convention unless he has majorities (not pluralities) in at least 8 states (including the non-states like PR, DC, VI, etc). [(Rule 40(b), pdf)](https://s3.amazonaws.com/prod-static-ngop-pbl/docs/Rules_of_the_Republican+Party_FINAL_S14090314.pdf) > > If Trump gets 40% of the vote, what are the odds that any other candidate can overcome this hurdle? Excellent point. The way things generally work, it’s hard to see how more than one candidate would ever get nominated. Of course, rules can be and often are modified at conventions. It seems to me that the establishment has resigned itself to a Trump nomination. They seem to realize that Rubio is their last hope and he isn’t gaining any traction. Bush and Kasich are dead in the water and Christie has to many skeletons in his closet. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 1:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/480 "2016-01-22T13:21:44Z")
Bush looks dead, but Kasich is 2nd in NH, and 2nd can turn into first if Trump gets stopped in Iowa. As you can see here, McCain didn’t overtake Romney in NH until just before the Iowa caucuses. If Trump looks weak, Kasich could take NH: [RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - New Hampshire Republican Primary](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_primary-193.html#)! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819.md?page=23) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819.md?page=25)