# The Race for the GOP Nomination - Post-Thanksgiving Thread

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [November 28, 2015, 12:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819 "2015-11-28T12:40:25Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 27

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**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [February 1, 2016, 4:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/521 "2016-02-01T04:38:26Z")

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Nah. There’s no cost to O’Malley just hanging around. If the FBI comes out with a recommendation to indict, O’Malley becomes the only alternative to Sanders. If he ends his campaign, then that means Sanders just wins.

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**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\
**Post date:** [February 1, 2016, 4:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/522 "2016-02-01T04:46:21Z")

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> [@](#):
>
> If the FBI comes out with a recommendation to indict

You’re really hanging your hat on that, aren’t you?

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**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [February 1, 2016, 4:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/523 "2016-02-01T04:50:51Z")

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It can’t be ruled out, and as long as it can’t be ruled out, the party elite needs an alternative in the race.

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**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\
**Post date:** [February 1, 2016, 5:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/524 "2016-02-01T05:02:53Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> It can’t be ruled out, and as long as it can’t be ruled out, the party elite needs an alternative in the race.

#FeelTheBern

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**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [February 1, 2016, 7:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/525 "2016-02-01T07:21:03Z")

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I think they are about as happy with that as Republicans are with Ted Cruz.

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**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\
**Post date:** [February 1, 2016, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/526 "2016-02-01T15:17:19Z")

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Some general points about the state of the race:

I think a lot of the seeming confusion of the GOP establishment stems from their terror of a Trump third-party run, an entirely legitimate terror given his egotism and wealth. They want to take him down but not in a way that seriously angers him.

If you think about a semi-plausible scenario where Trump is taken down without him getting mad it could go something like this: Cruz attacks Trump and weakens him. The other candidates attack Cruz and weaken **him**. An establishment candidate, preferably Rubio, emerges from the wreckage and manages to win without needing to seriously attack a weakened Trump. The last couple of weeks do bear a passing resemblance to this scenario.

Bottom line: The GOP establishment isn’t as stupid as it looks right now and I wouldn’t count them out no matter what happens in Iowa today.

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**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\
**Post date:** [February 1, 2016, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/527 "2016-02-01T16:35:42Z")

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If they _were_ that stupid, they would be stymied by the task of tying their wing-tip shoes. Wait, they have people for that.

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**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\
**Post date:** [February 1, 2016, 5:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/528 "2016-02-01T17:34:34Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> I think they are about as happy with that as Republicans are with Ted Cruz.

You really think Bernie Sanders is as hated in the Democratic Party as Cruz is in the GOP? :dubious:

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**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 7:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/529 "2016-02-02T07:58:52Z")

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Not hated, but the result of his nomination would be just as distasteful for what it would do to the party. The elites dread it about as much, although for different reasons.

One big problem is that a lot of that corporate money would just dry up with Sanders at the head of the ticket.

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**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\
**Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/530 "2016-02-02T14:14:32Z")

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Well, that was quite a caucus night. Cruz 28%, Trump 24%, Rubio 23%, everyone else \<5%.

In a way, all three of the top three won.

Cruz obviously won because he, well, _won_.

Rubio had a great night because he beat expectations by a mile. He didn’t poll above the mid-to-upper teens anywhere, anytime, during the long pre-primary season. But last night he got 23%. That should help him make the argument in NH that people who are considering Bush or Kasich or Christie should switch to him, so he can slay the evil Trump monster.

And Trump (a) finished second in arguably one of his weakest states, but more critically, (b) we finally got a first read on the drop-off between polled and actual support, and it’s not too bad. Going from [a final 28.6% polling average (per 538)](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-republican/) to an actual of 24.3% means that 85% of his polled support showed up.

That means that if his average in NH stays at 32.6% (again, per 538), he should get ~27-28% of the actual vote there.

So that’s what Rubio has to beat in NH, unless Trump’s support sags. Right now, the four Establishment lane candidates, combined, are polling at about 37%. If you toss in Fiorina and Paul (7% between them) and undecideds (another 7%), that’s 51% of prospective NH voters. He has to win a little over half of that 51% to win NH. That’s well within the realm of the possible.

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**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\
**Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/531 "2016-02-02T14:34:06Z")

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Oh, and Huckabee’s already called it quits. Santorum soon to follow, I’m sure.

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**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\
**Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/532 "2016-02-02T14:53:16Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> One big problem is that a lot of that corporate money would just dry up with Sanders at the head of the ticket.

If he got this far without it, and if he gets that far without it, then he can win the WH without it. After all, no matter how much money is spent on TV ads and by whom, there will be just one Dem nominee and just one Pub nominee and everybody will have heard of both of them.

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**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/533 "2016-02-02T14:56:18Z")

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Yes, but can downticket Democrats win without it?

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**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\
**Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/534 "2016-02-02T15:17:08Z")

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In addition to **adaher** ’s excellent point …

As well (and I’ve said this about a hundred times in this election season), the only thing that really matters in the general election is turnout.

Substantially everybody knows \*how \*they would vote. The only interesting question is \*whether \*they’ll vote.

And getting out the vote, whether by traditional advertising, new social media, or good old-fashioned ground game costs massive . Don't have massive ? Don’t win. It really is as simple as that.

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**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\
**Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/535 "2016-02-02T15:31:07Z")

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I think it’s Rubio’s race to lose now. In the first two states he isn’t really competing against Trump and Cruz but Jeb, Christie and Kasich and he crushed them in Iowa. Now, if he gets even a moderate bump, he will crush them again in NH and that should be enough to “clear the establishment lane”. Once that happens, there will be a rush of money, endorsements and glowing coverage from the conservative media which sets him up nicely in the three-way race against Trump and Cruz. I think his biggest worry may be that Trump quits at some point, leaving him in a tricky two-way fight against Cruz.

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**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\
**Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/536 "2016-02-02T15:35:08Z")

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> [@RTFirefly](#):
>
> Well, that was quite a caucus night. Cruz 28%, Trump 24%, Rubio 23%, everyone else \<5%.

Carson got 9%.

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**Author:** ![Bullitt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bullitt/32/5725_2.png) [@Bullitt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bullitt)\
**Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/537 "2016-02-02T16:01:29Z")

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Jeb said he wanted to be the top governor at Iowa, and he got that.

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**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\
**Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/538 "2016-02-02T16:12:43Z")

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> [@Lantern](#):
>
> I think it’s Rubio’s race to lose now. In the first two states he isn’t really competing against Trump and Cruz but Jeb, Christie and Kasich and he crushed them in Iowa. Now, if he gets even a moderate bump, he will crush them again in NH and that should be enough to “clear the establishment lane”. Once that happens, there will be a rush of money, endorsements and glowing coverage from the conservative media which sets him up nicely in the three-way race against Trump and Cruz. I think his biggest worry may be that Trump quits at some point, leaving him in a tricky two-way fight against Cruz.

I’m not so sure he wins the establishment race in NH. Even clearing the establishment lane may not be enough, Trump and Cruz are going to be chirping “Gang of Eight” and “Amnesty” with every breath they take. If he gets double-teamed by Cruz and Trump in NH, his momentum will be short-lived. It’s easy to overstate the importance of Iowa on the GOP side, we do it every 4 years.

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**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\
**Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/539 "2016-02-02T16:20:23Z")

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> [@BobLibDem](#):
>
> I’m not so sure he wins the establishment race in NH. Even clearing the establishment lane may not be enough, Trump and Cruz are going to be chirping “Gang of Eight” and “Amnesty” with every breath they take. If he gets double-teamed by Cruz and Trump in NH, his momentum will be short-lived. It’s easy to overstate the importance of Iowa on the GOP side, we do it every 4 years.

And ending up in 3rd place in NH, NV and SC won’t really count for much in the end. Rubio is going to have to win somewhere outright to be considered viable as the nominee. And Florida doesn’t count really.

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**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\
**Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/540 "2016-02-02T16:22:08Z")

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> [@Peremensoe](#):
>
> Carson got 9%.

You’re right, of course. Kinda forgot about him - easy to do, these days.

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