# The Race for the GOP Nomination - Post-Thanksgiving Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 28, 2015, 12:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819 "2015-11-28T12:40:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 34
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2016, 12:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/661 "2016-02-21T00:26:19Z")
[Trump called for dipping bullets in pig’s blood before shooting Muslims. He also claims John Pershing did it first, though snopes says that’s not true.](http://news.groopspeak.com/trump-tells-hoax-story-at-rally-about-wwi-general-executing-muslims-its-beyond-sick/) ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2016, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/662 "2016-02-21T02:13:10Z")
Would it actually bother them, or is it just something we think would bother them? Anyway, Rubio is BACK!!! ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2016, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/663 "2016-02-21T02:15:48Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Would it actually bother them, or is it just something we think would bother them? Muslims don’t mind being shot with bullets, but god dammit, if you force them to violate halal rules then they’re really pissed! :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2016, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/664 "2016-02-21T02:52:12Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Anyway, Rubio is BACK!!! Did he go somewhere? Anyway, when was the last time someone won the nomination after failing to win one of the first three contests? I’m thinking never. I think you’re about three weeks away from singing the praises of your nominee, Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2016, 3:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/665 "2016-02-21T03:25:57Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Anyway, when was the last time someone won the nomination after failing to win one of the first three contests? I’m thinking never. George McGovern, 1972. He actually failed to win any of the first six. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2016, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/666 "2016-02-21T03:29:32Z")
Oooohhh, bad exception though. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2016, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/667 "2016-02-21T03:31:55Z")
> [@Peremensoe](#): > > George McGovern, 1972. He actually failed to win any of the first six. How about on the Republican side? Has it ever been done? ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2016, 3:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/668 "2016-02-21T03:35:30Z")
I only looked back to '72. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2016, 6:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/669 "2016-02-21T06:40:52Z")
After Iowa I said it was Rubio’s race to lose. He had a huge stumble in NH but now I still think it’s Rubio’s race to lose. He has knocked out Jeb and Kasich will soon follow. He has “cleared the establishment lane” and with it will come a flood of money, endorsements and positive coverage. Trump has 30-35% but lacks a strategy for expanding that to the 45-50 he needs to win. I don’t think his attacks on the Iraq War and George W will help in that regard. Once it settles down to a three-way race I expect it will be Rubio with around 45, Trump with around 35 and Cruz with around 20. The later winner-take all states should help Rubio to win but if it is a brokered convention you would back him as well. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2016, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/670 "2016-02-21T15:49:12Z")
He does not need 45 to 50 to win the nomination. Trump is on track to have enough delegates to win. There are enough WTA states that he can keep piling up like this in enough states, taking all the delegates with 35% of the vote, so long as it remains a three or four person race. The presumption that Rubio get _all_ of the “other” vote is possibly true, but in no way realistically expected. And Kasich may keep him from getting Ohio. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2016, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/671 "2016-02-21T17:38:31Z")
Well, yeah if Rubio gets 45% from here on out, he’ll win. Seems a little pie in the sky though. Still need that pesky Carson and Kasich to drop out. And the March 1st primaries could make a big difference before we get to the WTA states. A lot of them are “winner take most”, which could see 3rd place finishers get no or very few delegates (e.g. the big one - Texas) ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2016, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/672 "2016-02-21T18:00:26Z")
Will Kasich be able to continue for long? His position is no better than Jeb’s, he will struggle to raise money and face enormous pressure from GOP insiders to quit. Carson can probably go on for some time but will become less and less relevant as he leaks support to more viable contenders. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2016, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/673 "2016-02-21T18:04:31Z")
You think Carson’s supporters will all go to Rubio? Kasich is a question mark. Some think he’ll hold out til Ohio and if that’s true it’s too late to help Rubio. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2016, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/674 "2016-02-21T18:10:52Z")
No but I don’t think they will go disproportionately to Trump either. He will probably slowly leak votes to the main candidates and become irrelevant. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2016, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/675 "2016-02-21T18:24:27Z")
But Cruz and Rubio could easily split on the supporters from Carson and Kasich, then you might be looking at 33% each or something. Then it’ll all come down to which States they are stronger in. It’s crazy to say it’s Rubio’s to lose at this point. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2016, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/676 "2016-02-21T18:28:19Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > It’s crazy to say it’s Rubio’s to lose at this point. Especially given that Trump is running the table so far, even if you go by demographics instead of states. Rubio hasn’t even finished a clear second anywhere yet. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2016, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/677 "2016-02-21T22:30:51Z")
It’s all over now- Mittens has endorsed Rubio. I can just imagine all the Trump supporters jumping over to Rubio’s camp. Or not. Definitely not. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2016, 7:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/678 "2016-02-25T07:51:05Z")
Hey, wasn’t John Bolton supposed to run? ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2016, 9:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/679 "2016-02-25T09:46:38Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Hey, wasn’t John Bolton supposed to run? Didn’t work out. The focus groups kept confusing him with Wilfred Brimley. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2016, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/680 "2016-02-25T17:51:24Z")
New [Quinnipiac poll](http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=2327) of Florida: Trump 44, Rubio 28, Cruz 12, Kasich 7, Carson 4. 705 LVs, Feb. 21-24. If Rubio can’t even beat Trump in Florida, he’s toast, so he’s got his work cut out for him. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819.md?page=33) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819.md?page=35)