# The Race for the GOP Nomination - Post-Thanksgiving Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 28, 2015, 12:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819 "2015-11-28T12:40:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2015, 1:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/121 "2015-12-10T01:26:24Z")
Well, yes, it would be decisive because it would be so surprising, and it would be surprising because it’s so unlikely. I think if I were Rubio, I’d be pinning my hopes on a slower but steadier path. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2015, 6:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/122 "2015-12-10T06:57:05Z")
A month back I thought that Rubio would win the nomination and perhaps go all the way. Now I am not so sure. I really think Paris/San Bernadino has changed the Republican race. There is an extraordinary amount of rage in the Republican base against Muslims and I think it extends beyond the 25-30% who have supported Trump so far. This [poll](http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-12-09/bloomberg-politics-poll-trump-muslim-ban-proposal)says 65% of Republican primary voters support Trump on his Muslim immigration proposal. I think there is a serious possibility Trump will be able to ride this issue and win the nomination. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2015, 10:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/123 "2015-12-10T10:21:04Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Well, reasonable is Bush, Rubio, Kasich, or Christie at this point and only one of those looks to have a chance right now … Nate Silver has [an interesting graphic (Venn diagram) he calls The Republican’s Five-Ring Circus](https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/01/silver-datalab-candidate-venn1.png). The names adaher mentions are in the “Establishment” ring. (Christie is in the “Moderate” ring but also makes it, barely, into Establishment.) However Rubio approaches the Tea Party Ring; he is closer to Walker than he is to Kasich. (My big fear of a Rubio Presidency is less how close he is to the Tea Party, but how corrupt and intellectually shallow appears to be – I fear his Presidency would resemble GWB’s, but be much worse.) Note that Trump is missing from the graphic. I guess Nate had no idea where to put him. 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2015, 10:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/124 "2015-12-10T10:27:49Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Would it be fun for Dopers to rank which GOP candidate they’d most like to see in the White House? We did an elimination-style game back in June. Pataki just edged out Kasich, with Rubio in third place. Which only goes to show that we’re not what you’d call representative of the general populace (and certainly not of Republicans). ---
**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2015, 10:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/125 "2015-12-10T10:48:43Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Nate Silver has [an interesting graphic (Venn diagram) he calls The Republican’s Five-Ring Circus](https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/01/silver-datalab-candidate-venn1.png). The names adaher mentions are in the “Establishment” ring. (Christie is in the “Moderate” ring but also makes it, barely, into Establishment.) > > However Rubio approaches the Tea Party Ring; he is closer to Walker than he is to Kasich. (My big fear of a Rubio Presidency is less how close he is to the Tea Party, but how corrupt and intellectually shallow appears to be – I fear his Presidency would resemble GWB’s, but be much worse.) > > Note that Trump is missing from the graphic. I guess Nate had no idea where to put him. 😛 I’d put Trump at the intersection of Libertarian and Tea Party. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2015, 10:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/126 "2015-12-10T10:52:16Z")
I’d say he’s got a foot among the moderates and a foot in the Tea Party. He’s not conservative at all when it comes to tax and budget policy. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2015, 11:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/127 "2015-12-10T11:32:05Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I’d say he’s got a foot among the moderates and a foot in the Tea Party. He’s not conservative at all when it comes to tax and budget policy. I’m not convinced his supporters know or care what his tax and budget policy are - it’s far more about the intersection of a cult of personality and broad bigotry than any substantive policies. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2015, 12:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/128 "2015-12-10T12:56:50Z")
IIRC (I don’t have a link – this is from memory), in the later versions of the “five-ring circus” graphic, Nate puts Trump in the bottom right corner outside of any of the ‘rings’. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2015, 1:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/129 "2015-12-10T13:51:22Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > IIRC (I don’t have a link – this is from memory), in the later versions of the “five-ring circus” graphic, Nate puts Trump in the bottom right corner outside of any of the ‘rings’. Got your link right [here](https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/silver-gop-five-ring-circus-jindal.png?w=610&h=613). ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2015, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/130 "2015-12-10T18:22:42Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I’d say he’s got a foot among the moderates and a foot in the Tea Party. He’s not conservative at all when it comes to tax and budget policy. His tax plan would cost in the neighborhood of $10T over a decade, and primarily benefit the rich. Sounds plenty conservative to me. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2015, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/131 "2015-12-10T18:40:20Z")
From that graphic, one would expect Perry, with appeal for three of the five rings, to be the front-runner. One would also expect a lot more candidates positioning themselves in one of those intersection points. It’s not happening, though. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 3:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/132 "2015-12-11T03:44:16Z")
Perry would have been the frontrunner given his resume and ideological positioning but then came the problem of actually campaigning, something he is extremely bad at. Huckabee is a guy who actually could be the nominee if he wasn’t so focused on one part of the party: the evangelicals. He was a fairly moderate governor of Arkansas and he actually is a talented campaigner and speaker. We only really have one good choice, and that’s John Kasich. All the others are badly flawed: Rubio is not ready to be President, Christie has ethical issues hanging over him, and Bush is, well, a Bush. I think that if we went into the election with John Kasich as our nominee, beating Clinton would be a relative cakewalk. But no, we gotta make it interesting. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 5:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/133 "2015-12-11T05:00:38Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Perry would have been the frontrunner given his resume and ideological positioning but then came the problem of actually campaigning, something he is extremely bad at. > > Huckabee is a guy who actually could be the nominee if he wasn’t so focused on one part of the party: the evangelicals. He was a fairly moderate governor of Arkansas and he actually is a talented campaigner and speaker. > > We only really have one good choice, and that’s John Kasich. All the others are badly flawed: Rubio is not ready to be President, Christie has ethical issues hanging over him, and Bush is, well, a Bush. I think that if we went into the election with John Kasich as our nominee, beating Clinton would be a relative cakewalk. But no, we gotta make it interesting. At this point Kasich getting the nomination is about as likely me marrying Elle Fanning. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 5:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/134 "2015-12-11T05:07:48Z")
It’s not THAT unlikely, but a lot of things have to fall into place for him. One of them almost certainly will: The year before an election is always the time that Republicans salivate over hard right candidates. Once the New Year comes they start thinking about winning, and Kasich has an electability argument in his favor. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 5:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/135 "2015-12-11T05:13:20Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It’s not THAT unlikely, but a lot of things have to fall into place for him. One of them almost certainly will: The year before an election is always the time that Republicans salivate over hard right candidates. Once the New Year comes they start thinking about winning, and Kasich has an electability argument in his favor. I’m sure that’s why he’s at a 2.2% average in the RCP poll average. This is not Romney 2012 or McCain 2008-those guys were even if not in first place were actually polling in the two digits. The Republican primaries this year is going to be a Havana mayoral election-two Cubans and a billionaire casino owner. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 5:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/136 "2015-12-11T05:15:31Z")
Will there be any traction to the “Rubio has a love child” rumors? ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 5:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/137 "2015-12-11T05:17:52Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > Will there be any traction to the “Rubio has a love child” rumors? Hopefully-he’s enough of a pretty boy to attract the floozies. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 5:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/138 "2015-12-11T05:19:36Z")
My chances for various Republican nominees: TRUMP-40% Cruz-30% Rubio-25% Other-5% ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 7:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/139 "2015-12-11T07:24:00Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > …about as likely me marrying Elle Fanning. Have you considered asking **adaher** to write a recommendation for you? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/140 "2015-12-11T15:38:49Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > …about as likely me marrying Elle Fanning. Maybe you’d have a better shot at being one of [Elle King](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elle_King)’s exes and oh’s. 😉 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819.md?page=8)