# The Race for the GOP Nomination - Post-Thanksgiving Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 28, 2015, 12:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819 "2015-11-28T12:40:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/141 "2015-12-11T16:39:35Z")
Republican primary voters place ‘electability’ [almost last](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/12/11/more-good-news-for-donald-trump-gop-voters-could-care-less-about-electability/). True believers, man. They’re wacky. > [@](#): > > Many Republican voters believe the whole idea of who is most “electable” is purely a construct of an establishment that has been forcing moderate nominees down their throats for years. Mitt Romney was supposedly the most electable candidate in 2012. He lost. John McCain was the most electable in 2008. He lost. So, why should the Republican base now put any faith in the idea of electability? Tie is with another Post poll today that 1/6 of Republican voters - half of Trump’s current support - say their minds are made up and [they’ll vote for Trump no matter what](http://https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/12/11/1-in-6-republicans-say-theyre-voting-for-donald-trump-no-matter-what/) and things are truly weird on the American right. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/142 "2015-12-11T16:47:55Z")
And this just in, water wet, and Hell an undesirable vacation choice… ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/143 "2015-12-11T17:06:46Z")
And now [Ben Carson](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ben-carson-gop_566afdebe4b0f290e522ea68) is threatening to leave the GOP. Let’s pop some corn and begin the happy dance. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/144 "2015-12-11T17:24:01Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > And this just in, water wet, and Hell an undesirable vacation choice… You’re from Minnesota. I figure you to like someplace warm for the winter. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/145 "2015-12-11T17:38:24Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It’s not THAT unlikely, but a lot of things have to fall into place for him. One of them almost certainly will: The year before an election is always the time that Republicans salivate over hard right candidates. Once the New Year comes they start thinking about winning, and Kasich has an electability argument in his favor. I’m not sure he campaigns that well. He scores pretty low on charisma, and seems to be trying to berate voters into voting for him. Plus, he’s insisting on the Huntsman strategy. I’m not sure I can evaluate Qin’s odds of marrying Elle Fanning (whoever that is), but Kasich ain’t getting the nomination. You also seemed to have fantasized upthread about how he’d win in a cakewalk against Clinton. Of course, this has been [polled](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_kasich_vs_clinton-5162.html#polls), and the data doesn’t support your fantasy. That said, general election polls at this point are mostly meaningless, so don’t stop believin’. ---
**Author:** ![Cognoscant](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/bbe5ce/32.png) [@Cognoscant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cognoscant)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 6:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/146 "2015-12-11T18:27:49Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > Will there be any traction to the “Rubio has a love child” rumors? If what I heard in Miami is true, I’m waiting more for the “Rubio has a nose problem” rumor. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/147 "2015-12-11T19:01:52Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > And now [Ben Carson](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ben-carson-gop_566afdebe4b0f290e522ea68) is threatening to leave the GOP. Let’s pop some corn and begin the happy dance. Poor Ben. Trump has beat him in the Crazy Wars. Maybe we should amend the Constitution to require that Presidents have the social maturity of a sixth grader, at least. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/148 "2015-12-11T19:36:58Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > You’re from Minnesota. I figure you to like someplace warm for the winter. Abandoned by wolves, raised by Texans. Been plenty warm, its overrated. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/149 "2015-12-11T22:19:37Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > At this point Kasich getting the nomination is about as likely me marrying Elle Fanning. Cheer up, **Qin**. Betfair has Kasich with about 0.3% to win the nomination. That’d put your chances way ahead of the vast majority of Elle Fanning’s admirers. (On the other hand, Betfair has Trump at 21% to win the nomination and 9% to occupy the Oval Office. :eek: This has still got to be completely absurd, right?) ---
**Author:** ![Lobohan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobohan/32/79_2.png) [@Lobohan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lobohan)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 10:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/150 "2015-12-11T22:37:03Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > At this point Kasich getting the nomination is about as likely me marrying Elle Fanning. Really? Because she’s been asking me to introduce you. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2015, 3:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/151 "2015-12-12T03:19:04Z")
Rubio’s poll standing actually seems to be falling now. Uh oh. Christie, on the other hand, is in 2nd place in NH according to the last poll from there. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2015, 3:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/152 "2015-12-12T03:23:04Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Rubio’s poll standing actually seems to be falling now. Uh oh. Christie, on the other hand, is in 2nd place in NH according to the last poll from there. If Rubio is falling that is good news. He is one of the few that the trainers could make into a passable candidate. They have the money, they have the technology, they could make him somewhat less disgusting. Christie, on the other hand, is going nowhere. Except maybe eventually to prison. I hope he likes to play cards, cause he’s sure to find his bridge partners there. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2015, 5:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/153 "2015-12-12T05:13:04Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > A month back I thought that Rubio would win the nomination and perhaps go all the way. Now I am not so sure. I really think Paris/San Bernadino has changed the Republican race. There is an extraordinary amount of rage in the Republican base against Muslims and I think it extends beyond the 25-30% who have supported Trump so far. This [poll](http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-12-09/bloomberg-politics-poll-trump-muslim-ban-proposal)says 65% of Republican primary voters support Trump on his Muslim immigration proposal. I think there is a serious possibility Trump will be able to ride this issue and win the nomination. Paris and San Bernadino has really freaked some folks out and given Trump a lift among a certain segment of the public, not just GOP voters I’m afraid. I’ve begun wondering what will happen if something even worse happens in the future? God forbid a larger attack or an attempt, successful or not, on the life of a candidate of either party or some other prominent politician happens. There is a disturbing proportion of the population who seem to be just fine with talk of keeping Muslims out of the country or making them register with the government. More attacks are just going to make this worse and help demagogues like Trump or Cruz sound reasonable to people who are scared. I realize it is unlikely things play out as I’ve described but not so unlikely as to be dismissed out of hand. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2015, 12:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/154 "2015-12-12T12:56:24Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Christie, on the other hand, is going nowhere. Except maybe eventually to prison. I hope he likes to play cards, cause he’s sure to find his bridge partners there. :golf clap: Well played, sir! ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2015, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/155 "2015-12-12T18:29:56Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Rubio’s poll standing actually seems to be falling now. Uh oh. Christie, on the other hand, is in 2nd place in NH according to the last poll from there. Christie does seem to be getting a bounce from the NH Union Leader going all-in for him. That won’t get any play _outside_ of NH, of course, so he has to manage his own expectations well enough to parlay whatever he ends up getting in NH into a national bounce. I’m not saying he can’t do it. But I am saying he won’t do it. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2015, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/156 "2015-12-12T20:18:17Z")
Words like “can’t” and “impossible” don’t really apply to American politics. He has Trump’s blunt and boorish attitude that a lot of folks mistake for “common sense”. Let us not forget it wasn’t all that long ago he was considered the favorite, almost prohibitively so. On the other hand, if you’ve had your day, you don’t often get another. So, Romney. Might as well start getting used to it. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2015, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/157 "2015-12-12T20:27:00Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Words like “can’t” and “impossible” don’t really apply to American politics. He has Trump’s blunt and boorish attitude that a lot of folks mistake for “common sense”. Let us not forget it wasn’t all that long ago he was considered the favorite, almost prohibitively so. > > On the other hand, if you’ve had your day, you don’t often get another. So, Romney. Might as well start getting used to it. Yeah, I pretty much agree with this. I was definitely concerned about a Christie Presidential campaign right after he won re-election in 2013. But I think the bridgegazi scandal ended up being a mortal wound, smoking gun or no. Governors who are deeply unpopular in their own states don’t tend to win promotions. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2015, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/158 "2015-12-13T01:41:48Z")
One poll says that Cruz is ahead of Trump in Iowa now. I wonder if Rubio, and indeed, all non Cruz/Trump candidates, are at all harmed by not saying hugely controversial things, and thus “avoiding” the attendant publicity? ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2015, 1:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/159 "2015-12-13T01:46:59Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > One poll says that Cruz is ahead of Trump in Iowa now. Very conflicting reports and Trump’s leads in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and nationally are on balance far more decisive. > [@](#): > > I wonder if Rubio, and indeed, all non Cruz/Trump candidates, are at all harmed by not saying hugely controversial things, and thus “avoiding” the attendant publicity? No its because they are all awful generic neocons blabbing the same nonsense from the _Weekly Standard_ and doing the bidding of the Cuck Bros. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2015, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/160 "2015-12-13T04:18:07Z")
Vox points out that Rubio is copying Giuliani’s 2008 strategy of not competing in Iowa or NH. > **[Marco Rubio's strategy is utterly baffling](https://www.vox.com/2015/12/12/9910868/can-marco-rubio-win)** > > Why isn't he building a ground game in the early states? That is not a recipe for success unless unelectable candidates win in both states. So the ideal situation for Rubio would be Cruz winning IA and Trump winning NH. But what if Christie wins NH? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819.md?page=9)