# The Race for the GOP Nomination - Post-Thanksgiving Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 28, 2015, 12:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819 "2015-11-28T12:40:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2015, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/161 "2015-12-14T14:11:12Z")
George W. Bush (Will Ferrell) reviews the GOP field and announces he’s getting into the race: [- YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKXGA-AU50w). No mention of the 22nd Amendment because SNL. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2015, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/162 "2015-12-14T15:00:55Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Vox points out that Rubio is copying Giuliani’s 2008 strategy of not competing in Iowa or NH. > > [Marco Rubio's strategy is utterly baffling | Vox](http://www.vox.com/2015/12/12/9910868/can-marco-rubio-win) > > That is not a recipe for success unless unelectable candidates win in both states. So the ideal situation for Rubio would be Cruz winning IA and Trump winning NH. But what if Christie wins NH? Quite seriously, I am delighted by this news. Absolutely tickled pink. Rubio’s the candidate I’d least like to see as the GOP nominee, so the more he sabotages his own chances, the happier I’ll be. And right now, Cruz is surging in Iowa, and Trump’s lead in NH continues to be steady (and fairly large). The media and the voters may give you one mulligan in the early primaries, but not two. If you practically skip Iowa in favor of New Hampshire, or vice versa, you can still go on to win. But if you do poorly in both, nobody’s gonna give you the benefit of the doubt. You’re screwed. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2015, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/163 "2015-12-14T15:28:20Z")
And specifically, _how_ you’re screwed is that you just drop off the radar. If you finish with a fourth and a third in Iowa and NH, the media attention will focus on the winners, and they’ll give some ink to candidates that didn’t win but were competitive. But you’ll be down in the white noise. And justifiably so. Especially on the GOP side, Iowa and NH have very different electorates, with Iowa being very heavy on the religious conservatives, and NH being more secular and somewhat more moderate, at least for GOP values of moderate. If you can’t score with either constituency, who exactly _are_ you going to appeal to? ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2015, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/164 "2015-12-14T15:30:36Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Quite seriously, I am delighted by this news. Absolutely tickled pink. > > Rubio’s the candidate I’d least like to see as the GOP nominee, so the more he sabotages his own chances, the happier I’ll be. > > And right now, Cruz is surging in Iowa, and Trump’s lead in NH continues to be steady (and fairly large). > > The media and the voters may give you one mulligan in the early primaries, but not two. If you practically skip Iowa in favor of New Hampshire, or vice versa, you can still go on to win. But if you do poorly in both, nobody’s gonna give you the benefit of the doubt. You’re screwed. I agree in principle, but still worry about Rubio getting the nomination. I see three wings of the Republican Party- the business wing would have liked to rally around Bush but they’ll gladly take Rubio, evangelicals flirted with Carson but now seem to be settling on Cruz, and the fearful whites have lodged in Trump’s camp. I think it’s way too early to suppose that Rubio can’t win over voters in the other two wings. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2015, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/165 "2015-12-14T15:48:56Z")
And if Rubio doesn’t break through in NH, there’s not going to be a strong Establishment candidate in 2016. He’s really the only one anymore with the chance of drawing widespread support, and if it isn’t him, it won’t be anyone. Even a win in NH won’t make Christie or Kasich viable. And it’s hard to imagine Jeb coming back from the dead at this point. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2015, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/166 "2015-12-14T15:54:01Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > I agree in principle, but still worry about Rubio getting the nomination. > > \ > > I think it’s way too early to suppose that Rubio can’t win over voters in the other two wings. Oh, I agree. There’s a reason for the assorted ‘ifs’ in this sequence of posts. He’s not going to win Iowa - I’ll go ahead and say that. He could still win NH, but he won’t unless he makes more of an effort than it sounds like he’s making now. And if he doesn’t win NH, or at least come a very close second behind Trump, he’s screwed. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2015, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/167 "2015-12-14T15:59:12Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > And if he doesn’t win NH, or at least come a very close second behind Trump, he’s screwed. Why? I would have thought that if Trump wins NH then there will still be plenty of backing and money for Rubio as the most plausible establishment figure. I would have thought the bigger threat to Rubio would be that Cruz overtakes Trump as a slightly more realistic nominee, or that Bush makes a comeback. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2015, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/168 "2015-12-14T16:12:41Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > Why? > > I would have thought that if Trump wins NH then there will still be plenty of backing and money for Rubio as the most plausible establishment figure. I would have thought the bigger threat to Rubio would be that Cruz overtakes Trump as a slightly more realistic nominee, or that Bush makes a comeback. I agree. If I’m Rubio, I’ll gladly accept a Cruz/Trump split in Iowa/NH. That will clear the field and those who supported Bush, Fiorina, Christie, and Kasich would come to Rubio. Cruz will come under fire from both Trump and the establishment wing and if it gets down to a 2 man race between Rubio and Trump, I don’t see Trump winning. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2015, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/169 "2015-12-14T17:07:58Z")
Rubio’s best argument is going to be electability. There is a new NBC/WSJ poll showing him beating Hillary by 3 while Trump loses by 10. At some point, polls like that are going to make some of the less hardened Trump supporters think again. The problem for Rubio is that NH is a cut-throat fight for second place where anything could happen. I think Rubio is fine if he can come second but third won’t look good and fourth or worse will seriously hurt his campaign. Ideally Rubio needs to convince the establishment to rally around him by January to stop Trump/Cruz. He can credibly argue that among Jeb, Kasich and Christie he has the best chance of uniting the party and winning the general. But will the establishment bite or will they hedge their bets till after NH? One problem is that the Republican establishment is basically rich,old white men. When they see Rubio, they probably see a promising subordinate, not a President. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2015, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/170 "2015-12-15T00:37:59Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > Why? > > I would have thought that if Trump wins NH then there will still be plenty of backing and money for Rubio as the most plausible establishment figure. I would have thought the bigger threat to Rubio would be that Cruz overtakes Trump as a slightly more realistic nominee, or that Bush makes a comeback. There _might_ be plenty of monetary backing for Rubio even if he finishes a distant second (or worse) in NH. But as we’ve noticed in this race, money isn’t everything. The media is going to go with the contenders. If Cruz wins Iowa and Trump wins NH, then it’s going to be all about Trump v. Cruz. Trump probably wins SC, and Cruz cleans up in the SEC primary. By the time Rubio gets even a crack at a meaningful win, voting will have been going on for a month and a half. Nobody gets to start winning that late. Other than Reagan in 1976, nobody’s come close to gaining the nomination despite going so deep into the primary season without a win. And Rubio’s just not the sort of rallying figure that Reagan was. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2015, 12:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/171 "2015-12-15T00:51:35Z")
Vox points out that Rubio is the only GOP candidate competing well with Clinton among young voters. He’s tied with her, which is basically doom for the Dem nominee if it holds up on election day. > **[Poll: Young voters split evenly between Clinton and Rubio](https://www.vox.com/2015/12/14/10123634/marco-rubio-poll-young-voters)** > > This Republican candidate could bring young voters’ loyalty to Democrats into question. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2015, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/172 "2015-12-15T00:56:42Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > There _might_ be plenty of monetary backing for Rubio even if he finishes a distant second (or worse) in NH. But as we’ve noticed in this race, money isn’t everything. > > The media is going to go with the contenders. If Cruz wins Iowa and Trump wins NH, then it’s going to be all about Trump v. Cruz. Trump probably wins SC, and Cruz cleans up in the SEC primary. By the time Rubio gets even a crack at a meaningful win, voting will have been going on for a month and a half. > > Nobody gets to start winning that late. Other than Reagan in 1976, nobody’s come close to gaining the nomination despite going so deep into the primary season without a win. And Rubio’s just not the sort of rallying figure that Reagan was. I take your point. But I think this race is well beyond historical parallels. I will be very very surprised if there are no mainstream candidates in serious contention past SC if Trump and Cruz win those states. Fox News has more party loyalty than to ignore Rubio post-NH. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2015, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/173 "2015-12-15T00:59:32Z")
The wild card is Trump. If Cruz is the best chance to beat Trump, then the party will just get behind Cruz and hold their nose. After all, as Vox points out, the worst case scenario of a Ted Cruz nomination is that the GOP loses in 2016. The worst case scenario of a Trump nomination is that the GOP wins. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2015, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/174 "2015-12-15T01:10:36Z")
I’m not so sure. I think a Cruz nomination puts the Senate in jeopardy just like Trump. And Fox wants to win the Presidency, not lose it. I would expect very pro-Rubio coverage should it come to pass that he’s the last mainstream candidate standing. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2015, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/175 "2015-12-15T01:24:27Z")
Yeah, worst case if that the GOP loses, but bad elections caused by poor candidate selection are not disastrous. You lose, you do better next time. The Goldwater loss did no lasting damage to the Republicans, and neither did the McGovern loss do lasting damage to the Democrats. Bad Presidencies, on the other hand, are disastrous and can be realigning events. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2015, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/176 "2015-12-15T02:10:43Z")
Disastrous presidencies like the \*last \*Republican one? Yes, that’s had an effect that appears to be of realigning importance. Good of you to notice, not good of you to decline to be specific. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2015, 2:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/177 "2015-12-15T02:11:51Z")
I’ve said before that GWB ruined the Republican brand. The party would have been much better off if Gore had won. And the Democrats would have been better off had McCain won. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2015, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/178 "2015-12-15T02:24:09Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I’ve said before that GWB ruined the Republican brand. The party would have been much better off if Gore had won. And the Democrats would have been better off had McCain won. You don’t win or lose elections for the purpose of winning future elections. EVERYBODY is better off that Obama beat McCain. No ACA, two more clones of Scalia on the court, no thank you. ---
**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2015, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/179 "2015-12-15T02:25:13Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I’ve said before that GWB ruined the Republican brand. The party would have been much better off if Gore had won. So would the country. The _world_ > [@](#): > > And the Democrats would have been better off had McCain won. The jury is **way** still out on that one, counselor. :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2015, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819/180 "2015-12-15T02:35:27Z")
No, the judge laughed the case out of court. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-race-for-the-gop-nomination-post-thanksgiving-thread/738819.md?page=10)