# "The Rapidly Shrinking Federal Deficit" **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 12, 2013, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-rapidly-shrinking-federal-deficit/655454 "2013-04-12T00:05:54Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 14\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![pjnlsn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e8c25b/32.png) [@pjnlsn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pjnlsn)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2013, 3:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-rapidly-shrinking-federal-deficit/655454/101 "2013-04-18T03:39:45Z")
> [@ITR\_champion](#): > > This libertarian would post two simple questions. > > 1. What is the current federal deficit? > > 2. What was the federal deficit back in fiscal 2007? > > The answers are $911 billion according to the link you posted and [$163 billion](http://www.reuters.com/article/2007/10/11/usa-budget-idUSWBT00770120071011). > > During most of the Bush years, Democrats were complaining ceaselessly about the enormous budget deficits that Bush was ringing up. The largest deficit during the Bush years was $459 billion in 2008, roughly half of the current deficit. It’s not that people don’t know the data, though many don’t, it’s that most people have no real understanding of economics or the full extent of government policies. A lot of people’s ‘reasoning’ on the subject of the economy consists of “Deficit = bad” ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2013, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-rapidly-shrinking-federal-deficit/655454/102 "2013-04-18T16:13:37Z")
> [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > How do you know what I wrote is bogus and Hannity’s is true if you have not checked Hannity’s source. So you don’t know that mine is bogus. You are just guessing. Why do you call my point bogus if you don’t know the facts? You posted an alleged assertion by Hannity and claimed it was shown to be a lie by another fact that you posted. I observed that your alleged fact does not contradict what you quoted from Hannity. Since then, instead of forthrightly admitting that you were wrong, you’ve been bouncing around all over the place, posting all sorts of other facts, and a new and different assertion by Hannity. I’m not interested in discussing any of that, expecially with you. My point was about your original claim, and it still stands. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2013, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-rapidly-shrinking-federal-deficit/655454/103 "2013-04-18T19:32:16Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > You posted an alleged assertion by Hannity and claimed it was shown to be a lie by another fact that you posted. I observed that your alleged fact does not contradict what you quoted from Hannity. > > Since then, instead of forthrightly admitting that you were wrong, you’ve been bouncing around all over the place, posting all sorts of other facts, and a new and different assertion by Hannity. I’m not interested in discussing any of that, expecially with you. My point was about your original claim, and it still stands. You need to go back and read Post #5. I also mentioned that I was talking about debt reduction not just the cost side of ObamaCare. > [@](#): > > . …just this week I listened to Sean Hannity … and he repeated the bold faced lie that ObamaCare will cost the Taxpayer $6 trillion …He even had a soft-spokent expert on his show to defend ObamaCare who kept telling Sean rather mildly … that he was not counting the Revenue Side of Obama Care and that overall Obama Care **cuts the deficit**. Nevertheless apparently you have no legitimate source that shows a change in forecast that Obama-Care will increase the deficit by $6 trillion dollars or $1 trillion. It continues to be a debt reduction program according to the most recent CBO projections. Hannity was talking about increasing deficits by $6 trillion as I pointed out is a lie. > [@](#): > > - ObamaCare will add $6.2 trillion to our deficits over the long-term, according to a new Government Accountability Office report. > > Revisiting ObamaCare March 12, 2013 > > [Sean Hannity](http://www.hannity.com/article/revis...bamacare/16889) Hannity was claiming the ACA was being revised and now it increases the deficit by $6 trillion. That is a lie, and you obviously cannot make a case that it is not a lie. Duly noted. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2013, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-rapidly-shrinking-federal-deficit/655454/104 "2013-04-18T21:45:13Z")
What you quoted from Hannity was not about the deficit, but about the cost to the taxpayers. You quoted from a guest on his show about the deficit. My point was and is that these do not contradict each other. Subsequently, you’ve quoted other statements from Hannity about the deficit. I’m not talking about those statements. This should be pretty clear by now. In fact, it is pretty clear by now. I do not intend to continue playing games with you. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2013, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-rapidly-shrinking-federal-deficit/655454/105 "2013-04-18T22:45:54Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > What you quoted from Hannity was not about the deficit, but about the cost to the taxpayers. You quoted from a guest on his show about the deficit. My point was and is that these do not contradict each other. > > Subsequently, you’ve quoted other statements from Hannity about the deficit. I’m not talking about those statements. > > This should be pretty clear by now. In fact, it is pretty clear by now. I do not intend to continue playing games with you. Regardless of your limited translation of what I wrote, I was talking about something I just heard on the radio about the $6.2 Trillion number. Since then I found a transcript from the Hannity website. Here is what Hannity is saying: > [@](#): > > - ObamaCare will add $6.2 trillion to our deficits over the long-term, according to a new Government Accountability Office report. > > Revisiting ObamaCare March 12, 2013 > > [Sean Hannity](http://www.hannity.com/article/revis...bamacare/16889) It is a lie. I don’t want to play games. Either you can refute this lie or you can’t. This is wrong: > [@](#): > > Again, this is nonsense. \*\*Revenues are a “cost”. \*\*You keep pretending that Sean Hannity was talking about the deficit, when he was talking about taxes, aka revenues. -Fotheringay-Phipps 04-15-2013 11:35 AM 105a1135 I am not ‘pretending’ he was talking about the deficit. And Revenues are not a “cost” to the Federal Government. The fact of what I wrote initially about to start this thread and about Hannity about the “DEFICIT” and is right here: > [@](#): > > …he [Hannity] was \*\*not counting the revenue side \*\*of Obama Care and that overall Obama Care **cuts the deficit**. -Ntfldbw #005 04-12-2013 03:52 AM. The Title of this thread is “The Rapidly Shrinking\*\* Federal Deficit\*\*” IF you want to go away please do. But don’t walk out claiming that I was not focused on the ‘Deficit’. That is not true. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2013, 5:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-rapidly-shrinking-federal-deficit/655454/106 "2013-04-20T05:09:20Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The reason spending is flat since 2011 is simple: Republicans won Congress, so now we’ve got spending control. And we’ll continue to have spending control until one party wins unified control again(doesn’t matter which one, unified control= big spending). Most of the current amazing deficit reduction (\*see below WSJ) is due more, percentage-wise, to increases in revenues rather than to cuts in spending. > [@](#): > > April 11, 2013, 11:03 AM ET.Budget Deficit Is Shrinking – a Lot.ByDavid Wessel - The federal budget deficit: It’s shrinking. > > Lost in the chatter about President Barack Obama’s behind-schedule delivery of his annual budget was this word from the U.S. Treasury: The federal deficit for the first six months of the fiscal year (October 2012-March 2013) was $600 billion, a whole lot less than the $779 billion recorded for the same months of the previous year. **Revenues are running 12.5%** ahead of last year; outlays are running 2.5% below last year. > > What’s going on? The economy is getting better, and that means more wages and profits to tax and less spending on programs such as unemployment compensation. Meanwhile, Congress and the president have raised taxes — both income and payroll taxes — and put some caps on spending. > > “The deficit,” economists at Goldman Sachs said in a note to clients, “is likely to decline substantially further in the next two to three years… Sequestration has barely started to show up in the outlay data, and the expiration of the Bush tax cuts for high-income earners is likely to reduce tax refunds and boost [tax payments] in early 2014.” So if your theory about unified governing is correct… Republicans contributed to reduced spending and Obama and Dems get credit for raising revenues, then you must admit that Obama and the Dems should get most credit for the current shrinking Federal Deficit. That gets back to why people from the right that it is Obama to blame for the current Federal Budget Deficit. I think it would be better had the GOP not won control of the HOUSE in 2010, because a balanced approach on raising revenues and cutting spending would already be in place. We’d have lower deficits with a faster recovery in employment. But we are where we are. And that fact is from known current data… Dems push for more revenue has helped reduce the deficit quite quickly from what it was at the end of the Great Bush recession of 2008. The ‘facts’ show that Republicans are wrong to remain devoted and loyal to Grover Norquist, who is not and never has been an elected official accountable to an electorate. So it is Grover Norquist who is in favor of slower deficit reduction, not Obama. Why would any lawmaker sign an oath to him? ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2013, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-rapidly-shrinking-federal-deficit/655454/107 "2013-05-18T14:06:37Z")
> [@](#): > > As for the ACA, it’s deficit reduction is contingent on all of the taxes and cuts actually staying in place, and of course the program not exceeding planned appropriations. Given the history of health care entitlements, it’s not farfetched at all for critics to claim it will blow up the deficit. Both Medicare and Medicaid vastly exceeded estimates. -adaher #006 04-12-2013 07:50 AM 1020750. Have you read any of the latest CBO reports? The ACA is holding up quite well at it’s original numbers and has contributed to Fed Spending savings on Medicare and Medicaid? Is it time for an update and follow up to your comment? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2013, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-rapidly-shrinking-federal-deficit/655454/108 "2013-05-18T16:29:03Z")
Health care spending nationwide has been lower than projected due the weak economy. With no plans to ever staff IPAB, there will be no way to curtail health care spending once the economy starts booming again. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2013, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-rapidly-shrinking-federal-deficit/655454/109 "2013-05-18T18:16:20Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Health care spending nationwide has been lower than projected due the weak economy. With no plans to ever staff IPAB, there will be no way to curtail health care spending once the economy starts booming again. That’s odd. More people are entering the programs every day but government cost are going down. So is it that people without jobs and much less money per enrollee don’t get sick or injured as much somehow when the economy is running at a higher rate of growth. Anyway, what is the basis for your opinion? > [@](#): > > So, they set a trigger. The IPAB would only come into effect when Medicare’s \*\*per-enrollee spending \*\*grew faster than the average of overall price growth (measured by the Consumer Price Index) and medical price growth. That way, Medicare costs wouldn’t rise as quickly as the rest of the health-care sector, but also have some wiggle room to grow faster than the rest of the economy. > > The law also set a deadline: By April 30, 2013, Medicare’s chief actuary would need to determine whether the entitlement program would hit that trigger point. And, a few days ago, acting chief actuary Paul Spitalnic made his determination: Medicare cost growth would not be high enough to call the IPAB into action. > > “\*\*Because the projected 5-year Medicare per capita growth rate does not exceed the Medicare per capita target growth rate, there is no applicable savings target for implementation year 2015,” \*\*Spitalnic wrote in an April 30 letter to Marilyn Tavenner, acting Medicare administrator. > > [http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/05/03/as-health-care-costs-slow-ipabs-launch-is-delayed/](http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/05/03/as-health-care-costs-slow-ipabs-launch-is-delayed/) ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2013, 3:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-rapidly-shrinking-federal-deficit/655454/110 "2013-05-19T03:54:34Z")
Oh, well they have a projection, that settles it. They should also tell me what they project the Dow to be in five years. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2013, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-rapidly-shrinking-federal-deficit/655454/111 "2013-05-19T17:07:24Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Oh, well they have a projection, that settles it. They should also tell me what they project the Dow to be in five years. You blamed the weak economy for the reduction in US Fed Government spending on Health Care. I asked where you come up with that and how is it that a recession causes people to not be sick and injured as much when there is more of them. Are you saying Hospitals and doctors charge less for services during a recession? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2013, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-rapidly-shrinking-federal-deficit/655454/112 "2013-05-19T17:53:16Z")
No, I’m saying that people purchase less health care when money is tight. Health care spending is more elastic than you would expect, mainly because so much of what is bought is useless or unnecessary. In another thread, a poster was advised to go to the emergency room for a cut on his finger. He didn’t have insurance, so he didn’t. Had he had insurance, he might have gone and thus incurred a $1000 bill that his insurance company would have paid. In a better economy, he might have had insurance. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Fun\_Ball](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_fun_ball/32/17664_2.png) [@Happy\_Fun\_Ball](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Fun_Ball)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2013, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-rapidly-shrinking-federal-deficit/655454/113 "2013-05-20T02:44:52Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Oh, well they have a projection, that settles it. They should also tell me what they project the Dow to be in five years. What do you have? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2013, 3:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-rapidly-shrinking-federal-deficit/655454/114 "2013-05-20T03:52:38Z")
History. Medicare and Medicaid vastly exceeded projections. THe burden is on ACA supporters to explain why ACA will be different. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-rapidly-shrinking-federal-deficit/655454.md?page=5)