# The red wall **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [December 24, 2016, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-red-wall/775557 "2016-12-24T20:36:29Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![dracoi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/90db22/32.png) [@dracoi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dracoi)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2016, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-red-wall/775557/21 "2016-12-26T18:51:20Z")
> [@Ambrosio\_Spinola](#): > > True, but under the same metrics Clinton almost won Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida; it’s basically impossible to imagine a situation where a Democrat could win Texas and not some other, closer states. > > There do seem to be an increasing number of states that always vote one way or the other despite the candidates, the situation, or anything else, but not enough yet to give any party a true wall. I think the point was that Texas has changing demographics. You ought to hear die-hard Texans like my wife and her aunt bemoan the liberals in Austin. You’d think San Francisco was waging an intentional culture war with Texas to hear them tell it. If you transplant enough urban liberals into the high-tech, big-city parts of Texas, you could very well change its color without either party having to change their message. It’s not going to happen next election, but it wouldn’t entirely surprise me to see the Texas of 20 years from now voting like California. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2016, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-red-wall/775557/22 "2016-12-27T22:16:02Z")
> [@Shagnasty](#): > > 1. Cut out endorsement of identity politics and focus on fringe social issues - they are divisive, polarizing and yet not that important to the vast majority of people. It is great and even admirable to support “equal rights” as long as it means just that. It isn’t effective when it sounds like they are skipping through a field of poppies trumpeting the fringe group of the week. Also, stop trying to convince white voters that they are all “privileged” even if they just got laid off from a coal mine and live in one of the worst trailer parks in America. If you are politically astute enough to think of a way to sell this pivot to the people to whom these “fringe” issues are sometimes a matter of life and death, you could probably fix all the Democrats’ problems. And they DO have privilege, to a possibly small but real extent, because they don’t have to worry about being laid off and living in a trailer park AND simultaneously worry about being disproportionately shot by the police, or have the threat of eviction from the entire country hanging over them, or having their place of worship firebombed by yahoos in pickup trucks. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2016, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-red-wall/775557/23 "2016-12-27T22:28:46Z")
What will eventually happen is that urbanization will turn blue states bluer, purple states blue, and red states purple. Some states like Kansas, the Dakotas, and Alaska might be immune to this trend and stay red in perpetuity, but once sufficiently urbanized, blue states will stay blue. A narrow victory over an immensely unpopular Democratic nominee is the Republicans’ last gasp. ---
**Author:** ![Ambrosio\_Spinola](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9de0a6/32.png) [@Ambrosio\_Spinola](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ambrosio_Spinola)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2016, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-red-wall/775557/24 "2016-12-27T22:49:51Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > What will eventually happen is that urbanization will turn blue states bluer, purple states blue, and red states purple. Some states like Kansas, the Dakotas, and Alaska might be immune to this trend and stay red in perpetuity, but once sufficiently urbanized, blue states will stay blue. A narrow victory over an immensely unpopular Democratic nominee is the Republicans’ last gasp. But due to the concentration of Democratic voters, you can easily end up with situations where the Democrats consistently get more votes and yet never actually get control. Look at the US Representative elections in Virginia this year, where the Democrats got just over 50% of the vote and won 4 out of 11 seats - and that’s after the court-ordered redistricting. Plus, waiting for demographics is probably not going to work. Texas has allegedly been about to turn purple “pretty soon” for a long time now, but what actually keeps happening is that the Republicans keep getting an increasing share of white voters. Sure there’s got to be some limit to that trend, but Texas hasn’t voted for a Democrat for President since 1976 or had any Democrat in any statewide office since 1994. You really can’t discount how discouraging those decades of failure are for rank and file voters, plus how much it depresses the ranks of potential candidates. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2016, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-red-wall/775557/25 "2016-12-27T22:55:23Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > What will eventually happen is that urbanization will turn blue states bluer, purple states blue, and red states purple. Some states like Kansas, the Dakotas, and Alaska might be immune to this trend and stay red in perpetuity, but once sufficiently urbanized, blue states will stay blue. A narrow victory over an immensely unpopular Democratic nominee is the Republicans’ last gasp. I think the only place that’s really happening is Virginia, and that’s not so much urbanization as a lot of very well off people who actually vote being dependent on government jobs for their six figure incomes. It’s hard to predict anything right now though, because the parties are going through changes, which means the coalitions will shuffle. What if the Democratic Party becomes a “soak the rich” party again? Do the well off urban professional whites stay on board? How does Obama’s last middle finger to Israel change the Jewish vote, which has been threatening to go GOP for awhile but nver quite does? How does increasing Asian immigration and decreasing Lation immigration change things? Asians have become pretty good Democrats but have very different priorities from the liberal base, as in no to affirmative action, strong support for the police, and don’t tax us too much or interfere with small business with overregulation. Personally, I think the only thing keeping Asians Democratic is Republican xenophobia. If Republicans get over that pathology a lot of possibilities open up. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2016, 11:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-red-wall/775557/26 "2016-12-27T23:26:30Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > What will eventually happen is that urbanization will turn blue states bluer, purple states blue, and red states purple. Some states like Kansas, the Dakotas, and Alaska might be immune to this trend and stay red in perpetuity, but once sufficiently urbanized, blue states will stay blue. A narrow victory over an immensely unpopular Democratic nominee is the Republicans’ last gasp. More of this silly “demographics is destiny” argument that I thought this last election so thoroughly disproved. Utah is a heavily-urbanized state, and still bright red. ---
**Author:** ![doorhinge](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a5b964/32.png) [@doorhinge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/doorhinge)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2016, 11:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-red-wall/775557/27 "2016-12-27T23:26:48Z")
> [@ITR\_champion](#): > > Not long ago, certain people were telling that Democrats were guaranteed to win the presidency because of a “blue wall”, meaning a set of states representing 270 electoral votes that were guaranteed to always vote for a Democrat. [One of our locals even capitalized it](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=744804). In retrospect, that doesn’t seem like such a bright theory. Folks ought to have paid attention to the fact that the Republicans had won Senate and/or Governor races in states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania during the Obama administration. That might have lead them to consider whether those states were actually guaranteed to vote for Democratic candidates forever. > > …But as things are going now, it seems unlikely to happen, because the Democratic leadership are unable to identify their problems, much less fix them. (post shortened) It should be obvious now that there was no “blue wall”. Nor is there a red wall. The red/blue walls were a creation by some political hacks to create another publicity gimmick that might catch on with the public. Unfortunately, many people believed these gimmicks and catch phrases. Too bad for them. Yes, the Republicans were slowly taking back control of state legislatures, both U.S. houses, and then the Presidency. In spite of their constantly losing seats, the Hillary worshippers continually told themselves, and convinced themselves, that they were winning, or that they could not lose. Now the DNC/MSNBC/Hillary worshipper-types are embarrassed that they could have been fooled so completely. You could see the shock on their collective faces as the election results rolled in. Sad really. They would like to tell you that they are too smart to fall for the type of campaign horseshit that they fell for, but the election results speak for themselves. ---
**Author:** ![doorhinge](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a5b964/32.png) [@doorhinge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/doorhinge)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2016, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-red-wall/775557/28 "2016-12-27T23:42:32Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > …A narrow victory over an immensely unpopular Democratic nominee is the Republicans’ last gasp. (post shortened) I don’t understand why people keep implying that the GOP is going to blow up??? Both political parties are very good at adapting to whatever the current whims of society might be. Just as the GOP absorbed the Tea Party’s best ideas, the DNC should (might?) regroup and present stronger, more electable, candidates in the future. It’s really up to the party leaders, and its big buck donators, to create a slate of more electable candidates. Neither the DNC, or GOP, are going to go away in our life time. I don’t know about you, but I’m feeling pretty healthy. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2016, 8:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-red-wall/775557/29 "2016-12-28T08:37:05Z")
> [@doorhinge](#): > > (post shortened) > > I don’t understand why people keep implying that the GOP is going to blow up??? > > Both political parties are very good at adapting to whatever the current whims of society might be. Just as the GOP absorbed the Tea Party’s best ideas, the DNC should (might?) regroup and present stronger, more electable, candidates in the future. It’s really up to the party leaders, and its big buck donators, to create a slate of more electable candidates. > > Neither the DNC, or GOP, are going to go away in our life time. I don’t know about you, but I’m feeling pretty healthy. 😃 I agree. I predict the current Democratic coalition will continue to fray at the seams _if not fracture in coming years_. As baby boomers retire, and Govt spending in many areas becomes squeezed, it will prove more difficult to hold the Dem coalition together. It’s above my pay grade to predict how Democratic leaders adapt to this situation but adapt they must. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2017, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-red-wall/775557/30 "2017-01-01T18:17:03Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > There’s also going to be another census and reapportionment before 2024. I think TX stands to gain another seat or two, but I can’t remember which other states are on pace to gain or lose seats. An article in the paper the other day said TX, FL, NC and OR would gain seats if trends continued as they are. Don’t totally trust that, though. It also said that 10 years ago, Oregon was on track to gain a seat, but then the recession hit and decreased in-migration, so Oregon didn’t get the seat. ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2017, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-red-wall/775557/31 "2017-01-02T01:53:15Z")
> [@Shagnasty](#): > > You do bring up a great point though. I think it would be very helpful if both parties just ignored or repudiated their most vocal, fringe wings. “Helpful” for whom? Centrist moderates may or may not vote for a political party. They will almost never, however, give money to that party, nor will they volunteer for that party, and are less likely to serve in unpaid low-level offices, do delegate work, etc. Those things require a strong sense of commitment, loyalty, and passion, and those typically come from strong ideological views. ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2017, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-red-wall/775557/32 "2017-01-02T02:15:42Z")
Shagnasty wrote: " I think it would be very helpful if both parties just ignored or repudiated their most vocal, fringe wings." The problem with this is that the party that does it _first_ puts itself at a tremendous electoral disadvantage for probably two or perhaps more cycles until news of their newfound reasonableness sinks in. It probably wouldn’t even help the Democrats at all as the people who constitute the living needle that gesture would be intended to move will have its’ sincerity assaulted by the “information” outlets those folks consume. It would turn from "cutting off your nose to _improve_ your face to, well, just cutting off your nose. ---
**Author:** ![Spectre\_of\_Pithecanthropus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spectre_of_pithecanthropus/32/12343_2.png) [@Spectre\_of\_Pithecanthropus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spectre_of_Pithecanthropus)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2017, 5:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-red-wall/775557/33 "2017-01-08T05:51:09Z")
> [@ITR\_champion](#): > > For example, take Kentucky. Kentucky has always leaned conservative. When I was growing up in the 80’s and 90’s, it also leaned Democratic. The Democrats, at that time, were not totally hostile to conservative ideas. Bill Clinton carried Kentucky twice, most of the congressional delegation was Democrats, and Democrats ruled the legislature. But this year, Trump beat Hillary by 30% in Kentucky, Republicans won the legislature, and 8 of 9 congresscritters from Kentucky are Republicans. California might be Kentucky’s opposite. Through most of the 20th century, the state politically leaned Republican, but I don’t think it has ever been perceived as being particularly conservative, socially or culturally. Both cases illustrate something we don’t often see today–Democrats willing to entertain conservative ideas, and Republicans likewise willing to consider liberal or progressive ideas. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2017, 6:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-red-wall/775557/34 "2017-01-08T06:19:13Z")
> [@jayjay](#): > > I love how right-wingers’ “constructive criticism” of Democratic policy basically boils down to “Abandon your primary voting blocs”. It’s not only stupid, it’s heartless and cruel, too. That’s exactly what people here were stating the GOP should do after the 2012 election. It’s kinda hard to have it both ways. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2017, 1:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-red-wall/775557/35 "2017-01-08T13:03:46Z")
But you see, our voting bloc is deplorable. ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2017, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-red-wall/775557/36 "2017-01-08T15:31:45Z")
Adaher wrote: "But you see, our voting bloc is deplorable. " Admitting you need help is the first step on the road to recovery. ---
**Author:** ![drad\_dog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/aeb1de/32.png) [@drad\_dog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drad_dog)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2017, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-red-wall/775557/37 "2017-01-08T17:25:40Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > That’s exactly what people here were stating the GOP should do after the 2012 election. It’s kinda hard to have it both ways. But when your bloc resembles a mob of Bavarian villagers in a universal horror film there’s a little distinction. Sometimes you just got to get real. ---
**Author:** ![drad\_dog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/aeb1de/32.png) [@drad\_dog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drad_dog)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2017, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-red-wall/775557/38 "2017-01-08T17:26:43Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > More of this silly “demographics is destiny” argument that I thought this last election so thoroughly disproved. Utah is a heavily-urbanized state, and still bright red. An election doesn’t disprove anything by itself. But keep on thinking that. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2017, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-red-wall/775557/39 "2017-01-08T18:34:04Z")
> [@drad\_dog](#): > > An election doesn’t disprove anything by itself. But keep on thinking that. Oh come on, it disproved lots of stuff. Sam Wang ate a bug because he was proven wrong, by an election. “The blue wall”. All those idiots that said Trump would never win. ---
**Author:** ![drad\_dog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/aeb1de/32.png) [@drad\_dog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drad_dog)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2017, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-red-wall/775557/40 "2017-01-08T18:55:13Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Oh come on, it disproved lots of stuff. Sam Wang ate a bug because he was proven wrong, by an election. “The blue wall”. All those idiots that said Trump would never win. Yup. And today I don’t believe in global warming, because it’s cold. It’s that good old American common sense. As opposed to some other kind of sense I guess. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-red-wall/775557.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-red-wall/775557.md?page=3)