# The Repeal of Obamacare/ACA: Step-bystep, Inch-by-inch **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [January 2, 2017, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146 "2017-01-02T17:06:13Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 49
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2017, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/961 "2017-07-25T18:10:18Z")
> [@Chimera](#): > > Well, they’ll have one year, three months and a couple of weeks to own it, with millions losing their insurance, before the mid-term elections. > [@jsgoddess](#): > > That’s all peachy keen if someone would actually beat them in the mid-terms. But since I have seen no proof of that, I’m not going to count on it. Not to mention: even if the Dems retake Congress next November, Trump would still be President, therefore able to veto any repeal of Obamacare repeal. And given that anything the Dems do in 2021 re health care would probably take at least a year to reinstate ‘on the ground’, it would probably be January 2023 before people who lose insurance if the GOP gets its way were insured again. The time and place to stop them is here and now. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2017, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/962 "2017-07-25T18:13:40Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > The rest of the so-called ‘moderates’ - Heller, Capito, Cassidy, Flake - have backbones of spaghetti, and it’s hard to see any of them being the third vote. And Heller’s apparently [announced](https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/889908335759081472) that he’ll vote for the Motion to Proceed. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2017, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/963 "2017-07-25T18:15:58Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Getting something to conference resurrects the House bill, of course, and the conference committee is another anything-can-happen forum. The good news is that both houses of Congress have to vote on whatever comes out of conference, but the bad news is that there’s usually a strong predisposition to pass it. Oh, and the bill that comes out of conference is fast-tracked, with 10 hours of debate and no amendments. Just up or down. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2017, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/964 "2017-07-25T18:17:00Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > And Heller’s apparently [announced](https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/889908335759081472) that he’ll vote for the Motion to Proceed. Yeah, they almost certainly have the votes on the MTP. ---
**Author:** ![Spice\_Weasel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spice_weasel/32/5435_2.png) [@Spice\_Weasel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spice_Weasel)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2017, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/965 "2017-07-25T18:28:13Z")
> [@filmore](#): > > I’m sorry to say this, but I think at this point, we need health care to fail in a spectacular way in order to save it. And yes, this means people will die, but it’s often the the case that people have to die to make things better. We’ll send the sick to the health care war, and hope most make it back alive. Maybe after the casualty count is high enough, our country will actually work together to come up with a solution. I don’t want people to die. But you are probably right that it will save more lives in the long run if it hits a visible crisis point or total collapse. I don’t want people to lose their health care either, but if the Republicans intend to take it away anyhow, let it fail spectacularly. We already have some of the worst healthcare in the developed world, and apparently nobody thinks that’s a problem. So I’m not sure what it will take to convince us to actually do something about it. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2017, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/966 "2017-07-25T18:39:48Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > And Heller’s apparently [announced](https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/889908335759081472) that he’ll vote for the Motion to Proceed. That’s at least defensible, given that he doesn’t know what he’s going to be voting on until McConnell releases it. He can always vote against it later. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2017, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/967 "2017-07-25T18:53:09Z")
God, watching the so-called “moderate” Republicans say “I can’t in good conscience sign this legislation knowing it that will leave millions uninsured.” “Might be open to signing it without having any idea what the fuck is in the bill beforehand though – I mean, I didn’t “know” that _this_ bill would leave millions uninsured…right?” ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2017, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/968 "2017-07-25T18:54:55Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > That’s at least defensible, given that he doesn’t know what he’s going to be voting on until McConnell releases it. He can always vote against it later. They’ll end up voting for it. They can only go on record as opposing Obamacare without being called Obama-lite or cuck-servatives so many times. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2017, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/969 "2017-07-25T19:05:58Z")
If I’m following the right twitter feeds, the Motion to Proceed just passed (barely). I think this was the easiest of all the votes that would be necessary to actually get the ACA repealed and/or replaced. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2017, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/970 "2017-07-25T19:07:29Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > If I’m following the right twitter feeds, the Motion to Proceed just passed (barely). I think this was the easiest of all the votest that would be necessary to actually get the ACA repealed and/or replaced. Maybe. But people really buy into the sunk costs thing. They’ve started down this road so a lot of them will just say “Since we’ve already started it, I don’t want to say no now.” ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2017, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/971 "2017-07-25T19:24:59Z")
Can I just say this is the most informative Pit thread ever? ---
**Author:** ![Ukulele\_Ike](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/df788c/32.png) [@Ukulele\_Ike](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ukulele_Ike)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2017, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/972 "2017-07-25T19:29:40Z")
Thank you, John McCain, you unholy fuck. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2017, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/973 "2017-07-25T19:30:15Z")
It took a tie breaking vote by Mike Pence to pass the Motion to Proceed. > **[Mike Pence casts deciding vote to advance Trumpcare](https://www.rawstory.com/2017/07/mike-pence-casts-deciding-vote-to-advance-trumpcare/)** > > Donald Trump's own Vice President cast the deciding vote to advance Trumpcare in the United States Senate.Serving in his role as President of the Senate, Vice President Mike Pence controlled the gavel in the Senate and cast the tie-breaking vote on a... ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2017, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/974 "2017-07-25T19:31:48Z")
I’m pretty embarrassed to be represented by the US Congress right now. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2017, 7:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/975 "2017-07-25T19:35:05Z")
And now 20 hours of debate and amendments. > [@](#): > > Technically, Tuesday’s vote meant the Senate would consider a measure the House approved in May eliminating much of Obama’s statute. Like legislation McConnell crafted mostly behind closed doors — and has since revised — it would eliminate Obama’s tax penalties on people not buying policies, cut Medicaid, erase many of the law’s tax boosts and provide less generous health care subsidies for consumers. > But now, the Senate faces 20 hours of debate and a long parade of amendments, and if a measure eventually emerges it is likely to look quite different. Because the chamber’s moderates and conservatives are so riven over how to replace Obama’s overhaul, leaders have discussed passing a narrow bill repealing only some unpopular parts of that law — like its penalties on individuals who eschew coverage — with the ultimate goal being to negotiate a final package with the House. [http://www.sfgate.com/news/medical/article/GOP-sets-Senate-health-care-vote-buoyed-by-McCain-11362244.php](http://www.sfgate.com/news/medical/article/GOP-sets-Senate-health-care-vote-buoyed-by-McCain-11362244.php) ---
**Author:** ![koeeoaddi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/koeeoaddi/32/408_2.png) [@koeeoaddi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/koeeoaddi)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2017, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/976 "2017-07-25T19:41:49Z")
> [@jsgoddess](#): > > I’m pretty embarrassed to be represented by the US Congress right now. This. :mad: ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2017, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/977 "2017-07-25T19:44:24Z")
Okay, I’m done with my tantrum. Now we know a bit more about what’s likely to come. Reconciliation is 20 hours of debate, split between the parties. This can be 20 hours straight or can have recesses. I haven’t looked to see if McConnell is saying anything about this. Then comes vote-a-rama. The expectation is that they will start with ORRA/the 2015 repeal bill. This will almost certainly fail. Next will come BCRA 3.5, including the Cruz and Portman amendments (I can explain these for those who aren’t familiar). Because neither Cruz nor Portman have scores, BCRA 3.5 needs 60 votes. This will also fail. Democrats have said they will request every amendment to be read. They are looking to slow things down. The end goal looks like it’s the skinny bill to come out of this process. Again, that would be a repeal of the individual mandate, plus possible repeal of the employer mandate and the medical device tax. Likely not other things since they want this to be lowest common denominator. If they can get a skinny bill out of the Senate, it goes back to the House. The House then would decide if they want to do a straight vote on the skinny bill or want to go to conference. Unlikely they would choose to take up the skinny bill on the floor. So on to conference we would go. At the conference, we would assume they are starting again with AHCA, the House-passed bill, which puts Medicaid back in the cross-hairs. View the skinny budget as a Trojan horse that they can pack full of awfulness. But it’s completely unclear that anything could come out of this process that could get through the Senate. If they could do this, why wouldn’t they have done it already? It’s completely fucked up. So, 20 hours debate, vote-a-rama: repeal and delay, then repeal and replace, then skinny, then conference, then they pass it in the House, then the Senate again. Don’t be surprised if the insurers to start pulling out if they go to conference with a skinny bill. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2017, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/978 "2017-07-25T19:46:47Z")
I may be off but I suspect the holdouts probably made a calculated bet that there will still be flaws with the bill and that maybe they’ll get more data to support their decision not to side with the GOP majority. The problem with such calculations is that sentiments can change. Suppose one more Senator like Mike Lee and/or Susan Collins finally concedes and says “Well it’s not perfect but we need to replace Obamacare.” That puts pressure on everyone else who hasn’t sided with the majority. They’ll be thinking about a primary challenge somewhere down the line. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2017, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/979 "2017-07-25T19:51:00Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > God, watching the so-called “moderate” Republicans say “I can’t in good conscience sign this legislation knowing it that will leave millions uninsured.” > > “Might be open to signing it without having any idea what the fuck is in the bill beforehand though – I mean, I didn’t “know” that _this_ bill would leave millions uninsured…right?” QFT. They KNOW the point of this rush-rush treatment is to pass a big tax cut for the rich, and pay for it by screwing the poor, while giving just enough of a pretense of health care ‘reform’ to give the ‘moderates’ a fig leaf of an excuse to fall in line. If they wanted the assurance of genuine reform, they’d have voted against the MTP and forced the bill to go through ‘regular order’ - the usual sequence of committee hearings and markups before it ever got to a Motion to Proceed. Quislings, all of them. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2017, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/980 "2017-07-25T19:56:06Z")
It would be a bad turn of events if Obamacare repeal passes. Not so much the fact that Obamacare is changed, but to have senators take what is generally a wide palatable healthcare reform and to replace it with absolutely nothing, without even knowing what’s in the bill and having no possible way of knowing its consequences…this is not in any way even remotely pretending to adhere to the norms of the democratic legislative process. And it doesn’t matter how bad the GOP looks – they’ll never own the negative effects of it because they will just blame it on Obamacare. A consequence of this is that the Republicans, ever more unpopular with the electorate, will probably double-down on ways to rig the elections systems so that they can find ways to retain power despite having an agenda that nobody wants. America’s moving from democratic republic to republican plutocracy. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146.md?page=48) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146.md?page=50)