# The Repeal of Obamacare/ACA: Step-bystep, Inch-by-inch **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [January 2, 2017, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146 "2017-01-02T17:06:13Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 50
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2017, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/981 "2017-07-25T20:06:40Z")
> [@jsgoddess](#): > > Okay, I’m done with my tantrum. Now we know a bit more about what’s likely to come. > > Reconciliation is 20 hours of debate, split between the parties. This can be 20 hours straight or can have recesses. I haven’t looked to see if McConnell is saying anything about this. > > Then comes vote-a-rama. The expectation is that they will start with ORRA/the 2015 repeal bill. This will almost certainly fail. Next will come BCRA 3.5, including the Cruz and Portman amendments (I can explain these for those who aren’t familiar). Because neither Cruz nor Portman have scores, BCRA 3.5 needs 60 votes. This will also fail. > > Democrats have said they will request every amendment to be read. They are looking to slow things down. > > The end goal looks like it’s the skinny bill to come out of this process. Again, that would be a repeal of the individual mandate, plus possible repeal of the employer mandate and the medical device tax. Likely not other things since they want this to be lowest common denominator. > > If they can get a skinny bill out of the Senate, it goes back to the House. The House then would decide if they want to do a straight vote on the skinny bill or want to go to conference. Unlikely they would choose to take up the skinny bill on the floor. So on to conference we would go. > > At the conference, we would assume they are starting again with AHCA, the House-passed bill, which puts Medicaid back in the cross-hairs. View the skinny budget as a Trojan horse that they can pack full of awfulness. > > But it’s completely unclear that anything could come out of this process that could get through the Senate. If they could do this, why wouldn’t they have done it already? It’s completely fucked up. > > So, 20 hours debate, vote-a-rama: repeal and delay, then repeal and replace, then skinny, then conference, then they pass it in the House, then the Senate again. > > Don’t be surprised if the insurers to start pulling out if they go to conference with a skinny bill. Can I get a Schoolhouse Rock version of this? ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2017, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/982 "2017-07-25T20:09:25Z")
> [@AlsoNamedBort](#): > > Can I get a Schoolhouse Rock version of this? Someone get me a guitar and an animator! Did any of it make sense already or should I start over? ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2017, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/983 "2017-07-25T20:10:57Z")
My précis is already wrong. Starting with BCRA first. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2017, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/984 "2017-07-25T20:14:35Z")
I’m sorry I wasted any sympathy on McCain. Now I hope he gets too feeble to return to DC so we only need to get two Republican Senators to break ranks. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2017, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/985 "2017-07-25T20:19:27Z")
McCain’s speech was pathetic. He’s the guy who bursts into shameful tears while he and his friends beat up a hobo. But, imagine being in a place where we are hoping an increasingly confused 81-year old brain cancer patient is going to “save healthcare.” Fuck you, Trump voters. ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2017, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/986 "2017-07-25T20:30:34Z")
> [@jsgoddess](#): > > …If they can get a skinny bill out of the Senate, it goes back to the House. The House then would decide if they want to do a straight vote on the skinny bill or want to go to conference. Unlikely they would choose to take up the skinny bill on the floor. So on to conference we would go. > > At the conference, we would assume they are starting again with AHCA, the House-passed bill, which puts Medicaid back in the cross-hairs. View the skinny budget as a Trojan horse that they can pack full of awfulness. > > But it’s completely unclear that anything could come out of this process that could get through the Senate. If they could do this, why wouldn’t they have done it already? It’s completely fucked up. But if the House votes on the skinny bill exactly as the Senate passed, then it goes to Trump to get signed, right? Isn’t that fairly likely? I seem to recall that’s what happened to the original ACA? If it goes to conference, the Senate has to vote on the final bill again, right? ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2017, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/987 "2017-07-25T20:37:56Z")
> [@scr4](#): > > But if the House votes on the skinny bill exactly as the Senate passed, then it goes to Trump to get signed, right? Isn’t that fairly likely? I seem to recall that’s what happened to the original ACA? > > If it goes to conference, the Senate has to vote on the final bill again, right? Yes, they could just pass the Senate bill, and yes if it goes to conference they will have to revote in both the House and the Senate, and will have to meet reconciliation rules in the Senate. Take my next thoughts with a grain of salt, since I’ve been wrong lots recently, though I don’t think any of my predictions about the health care bills has been wrong yet (they’ve been slower than I expected, but they are still getting there). I don’t think the House will be willing just to pass the Senate skinny bill. It doesn’t really do any of the ideological stuff they put in AHCA or BCRA. It leaves the marketplace subsides in place. It leaves Medicaid expansion in place. It doesn’t cut Medicaid at all. It wouldn’t do anything to penalize Planned Parenthood. And (perhaps most importantly for the GOP), it doesn’t cut taxes for rich people to set up tax reform. ---
**Author:** ![Spice\_Weasel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spice_weasel/32/5435_2.png) [@Spice\_Weasel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spice_Weasel)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2017, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/988 "2017-07-25T20:38:12Z")
I liked McCain’s speech. I agree he pitched his reputation in the trash with the Sarah Palin debacle, but I still see glimmers of integrity. He’s got nothing to lose at this point. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2017, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/989 "2017-07-25T20:38:58Z")
He still shows glimmers that he remembers what integrity is, but he always goes on to vote as he’s told. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2017, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/990 "2017-07-25T20:40:51Z")
Even more Byrd problems: Age bands and the small business health plans. ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2017, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/991 "2017-07-25T20:46:38Z")
> [@jsgoddess](#): > > I don’t think the House will be willing just to pass the Senate skinny bill. It doesn’t really do any of the ideological stuff they put in AHCA or BCRA. It leaves the marketplace subsides in place. It leaves Medicaid expansion in place. It doesn’t cut Medicaid at all. It wouldn’t do anything to penalize Planned Parenthood. And (perhaps most importantly for the GOP), it doesn’t cut taxes for rich people to set up tax reform. I really hope you’re right. But _my_ guess is that both the Senate and the House Republicans are now on the “we have to pass _something_ that looks like an Obamacare repeal or we’re toast in 2018” mindset, and therefore the House will pass whatever the Senate is able to pass. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2017, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/992 "2017-07-25T20:50:29Z")
> [@scr4](#): > > I really hope you’re right. But _my_ guess is that both the Senate and the House Republicans are now on the “we have to pass _something_ that looks like an Obamacare repeal or we’re toast in 2018” mindset, and therefore the House will pass whatever the Senate is able to pass. If the Senate passes the sham bill and the House takes it up, honestly, that’s pretty much the best thing we could get from anything that passes. I sincerely doubt that’s what they are expecting to do or what the Senate expects. We can still be hoping that they can’t get anything out of conference that will pass. But the sham bill is better than I would ever have expected. Incredibly damaging to the individual markets, but without the other things that are more irreversible. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2017, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/993 "2017-07-25T20:58:46Z")
> [@](#): > > …Even more Byrd problems: Age bands and the small business health plans . You are referring to the problems with staying within the limits of a “reconciliation” type bill, yes? ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2017, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/994 "2017-07-25T21:01:48Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > . > > You are referring to the problems with staying within the limits of a “reconciliation” type bill, yes? I’m not sure if you’re talking to me or which part, but yes, the Senate has to stay within the rules for reconciliation (or blow up the rules). So anything that comes out of conference would have to be within the Senate reconciliation rules or pass with 60 votes. ---
**Author:** ![MEBuckner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mebuckner/32/2896_2.png) [@MEBuckner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MEBuckner)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2017, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/995 "2017-07-25T21:16:14Z")
> [@AlsoNamedBort](#): > > Can I get a Schoolhouse Rock version of this? _It’s just a turd Yes, it’s only a turd Being polished by the GOP herd Sittin’ on the pot day by day And it’s really pretty shitty It’s a long, long wait The GOP sittin’ in committee Trying to polish a turd some way We all hope and pray we’ll be heard Because it’s really still just a turd!_ ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2017, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/996 "2017-07-25T21:51:10Z")
This is effectively a move to start over writing the legislation by amendment on the Senate floor. It’s important to remember that budget reconciliation imposes constraints in order to be able to pass by a simple majority without cloture being an issue. The Senate parliamentarian [already ruled](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/07/the-gop-health-care-bills-byrd-rule-dilemma/534588/) that components of the BCRA violate the Byrd Rule making the bill as currently written subject to filibuster. Budget reconciliation also [requires a CBO score](http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/senate-sets-sights-skinny-repeal-obamacare-tuesday-s-voting-n786296) before the Senate can proceed without it being normal legislation with it’s 60 vote to get cloture hurdle. Current amendments to BCRA from Cruz and Portman are not yet scored. While that link only mentions currently existing amendments that’s another big hurdle that slows the whole process. Every amendment would need to be scored first before passage under budget reconciliation is even an option. Effectively today sets up two cloture votes that Republicans know they are going to lose - full repeal and BCRA. It let’s the Senators who might be at risk in their states show they don’t like ACA by voting against it in two ways. ( “See! See!! We really tried!!! Blame the Democrats not us!!!”) That gives them political theater without substance before they start getting into trying to rewrite via a lengthy (thanks in part to delays to meet parliamentarian review and CBO scoring requirements) amendment process. ---
**Author:** ![SteveG1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/bb73d2/32.png) [@SteveG1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SteveG1)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2017, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/997 "2017-07-25T21:55:49Z")
> [@DinoR](#): > > This is effectively a move to start over writing the legislation by amendment on the Senate floor. It’s important to remember that budget reconciliation imposes constraints in order to be able to pass by a simple majority without cloture being an issue. > > The Senate parliamentarian [already ruled](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/07/the-gop-health-care-bills-byrd-rule-dilemma/534588/) that components of the BCRA violate the Byrd Rule making the bill as currently written subject to filibuster. > > Budget reconciliation also [requires a CBO score](http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/senate-sets-sights-skinny-repeal-obamacare-tuesday-s-voting-n786296) before the Senate can proceed without it being normal legislation with it’s 60 vote to get cloture hurdle. Current amendments to BCRA from Cruz and Portman are not yet scored. While that link only mentions currently existing amendments that’s another big hurdle that slows the whole process. Every amendment would need to be scored first before passage under budget reconciliation is even an option. > > Effectively today sets up two cloture votes that Republicans know they are going to lose - full repeal and BCRA. It let’s the Senators who might be at risk in their states show they don’t like ACA by voting against it in two ways. ( “See! See!! We really tried!!! Blame the Democrats not us!!!”) That gives them political theater without substance before they start getting into trying to rewrite via a lengthy (thanks in part to delays to meet parliamentarian review and CBO scoring requirements) amendment process. I trust them … To say “fuck you” to all of us. But of course their retard base will blame the guys who are NOT driving the car - the Dems - for fucking us over (and them too). ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2017, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/998 "2017-07-25T22:48:59Z")
> [@Spice\_Weasel](#): > > I liked McCain’s speech. > > I agree he pitched his reputation in the trash with the Sarah Palin debacle, but I still see glimmers of integrity. He’s got nothing to lose at this point. > [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > He still shows glimmers that he remembers what integrity is, but he always goes on to vote as he’s told. This. And [this](https://www.balloon-juice.com/2017/07/25/mavericky-maverick-mavericks/). (“Senator John McCain Venn Diagram.” One circle, “Words,” the other, “Actions.” No overlap.) Along the same lines: > [@](#): > > Ross DouthatVerified account @DouthatNYT > McCain’s speech should be judged based on what his MTP vote leads to, and nobody knows yet what that is. Right, Douchehat. Nobody knows yet what that is. But John McCain hasn’t been a maverick for 13+ years now, since he endorsed Bush for re-election in June 2004. Since then, he’s been a totally predictable standard-issue Republican, though he talks a good enough game that all those reporters who developed a man-crush on him back in 2000 still have the hots for him. As Andy Slavitt said, “Wake me when he actually says ‘nay.’” ---
**Author:** ![RandMcnally](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/b782af/32.png) [@RandMcnally](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RandMcnally)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2017, 12:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/999 "2017-07-26T00:45:34Z")
With all this going on, I wonder if the good states will be able to do their own things (like Mass and Romneycare). ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2017, 1:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146/1000 "2017-07-26T01:11:33Z")
MEBuckner, props! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146.md?page=49) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-repeal-of-obamacare-aca-step-bystep-inch-by-inch/776146.md?page=51)