# The Republican national Convention **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 18, 2016, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-republican-national-convention/757729 "2016-06-18T21:53:17Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 72
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-republican-national-convention/757729/1422 "2016-07-25T16:14:31Z")
There’s always something with Clinton. The media hasn’t pursued the Epstein story yet. They also haven’t even come close to mining the Broaddick story, speaking of paying off rape accusers. Or just outright intimidating them. I think what the convention showed is that Trump, unlike Clinton, still has upside. Everything the public has heard about him or from his own mouth has been negative. His convention speech, while not great, was probably a lot of voters’ first time listening to him directly and at length. It seems to have worked for him. Surprise stories aren’t going to surface. If there’s anything on Trump, it’s already kicking around in the fringe media or it doesn’t exist. The examples I cited from Clinton’s past are Fox News fodder now. Which means they could become CNN and NY Times fodder in October. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-republican-national-convention/757729/1423 "2016-07-25T16:16:47Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > There’s always something with Clinton. The media hasn’t pursued the Epstein story yet. They also haven’t even come close to mining the Broaddick story, speaking of paying off rape accusers. Or just outright intimidating them. > > I think what the convention showed is that Trump, unlike Clinton, still has upside. Everything the public has heard about him or from his own mouth has been negative. His convention speech, while not great, was probably a lot of voters’ first time listening to him directly and at length. It seems to have worked for him. > > Surprise stories aren’t going to surface. If there’s anything on Trump, it’s already kicking around in the fringe media or it doesn’t exist. The examples I cited from Clinton’s past are Fox News fodder now. Which means they could become CNN and NY Times fodder in October. All of those stories are old news – Trump is welcome to stir them up again, but it’s nothing the public hasn’t heard already, multiple times. And I’m skeptical there’s nothing on Trump, considering that none of his Republican opponents had any substantial anti-Trump strategy, and Hillary’s team will have had half a year to dig up dirt. But we’ll see. Your predictions are no more than dice rolls right now. ---
**Author:** ![Uncle\_Jocko](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uncle_jocko/32/2932_2.png) [@Uncle\_Jocko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Uncle_Jocko)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-republican-national-convention/757729/1424 "2016-07-25T16:18:25Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I don’t think there’s anything more negative they can do against Hillary that hasn’t been seen ad nauseam already, **so I think she’s about at her floor right now** ; I don’t think the same is true for Donald. I can only wish that were true, but you can never underestimate the GOP hate machine. You’d think they couldn’t go any further after a featured convention speaker and former front-running presidential candidate basically said she worships Lucifer - but they can _always_ go further. > [@adaher](#): > > There’s always something with Clinton. The media hasn’t pursued the Epstein story yet. They also haven’t even come close to mining the Broaddick story, speaking of paying off rape accusers. Or just outright intimidating them. > > I think what the convention showed is that Trump, unlike Clinton, still has upside. Everything the public has heard about him or from his own mouth has been negative. His convention speech, while not great, was probably a lot of voters’ first time listening to him directly and at length. It seems to have worked for him. > > Surprise stories aren’t going to surface. If there’s anything on Trump, it’s already kicking around in the fringe media or it doesn’t exist. The examples I cited from Clinton’s past are Fox News fodder now. Which means they could become CNN and NY Times fodder in October. Oh, look! My point is made! Nothing more exists on Trump? Seriously? When do we get to see the tax returns, anyway? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-republican-national-convention/757729/1425 "2016-07-25T16:20:23Z")
Old news that few know about. Very few people know about Bill and Jeffrey Epstein. Broaddick is somewhat known, but Broaddick has only just revealed details of how Hillary enabled Bill’s coverup of his alleged crimes. It’s a big story if the non-Fox media choose to make it a big story. As for Trump what’s known is known. There aren’t going to be surprises in just five months. If anything, there’s enough scandal in Trump’s life and business right now to disqualify him from the Presidency. The problem is that his bluster and misstatements get all the attention. Which could very well be by design. If we’re focused on Trump the oaf we’re not focused on Trump the criminal. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-republican-national-convention/757729/1426 "2016-07-25T16:24:19Z")
> [@Uncle\_Jocko](#): > > Oh, look! My point is made! > > Nothing more exists on Trump? Seriously? When do we get to see the tax returns, anyway? First, the GOP hate machine has never been able to damage Clinton. That’s just a comforting lie she and her supporters delude themselves with. It’s CNN and the NY Times which damage Clinton, that and an FBI director who in hindsight may have been the one to kill her campaign dead. Second, if you’ve been around candidates and scandal enough, nothing just comes out of the blue unless you’re a casual news consumer who is shocked that Gary Hart would have an affair or that Ed Kennedy apparently drinks and drives. Everything bad there is to know about a candidate starts out sloshing around fringe media. If there is something new on Trump, it’s on Huffington Post or CommonDreams, or the Nation, or Rachel Maddow found something. There are no secrets that only Hillary Clinton’s crack team can find. That’s a vain hope and I’d hope she isn’t spending a lot of money on it. That’s the media’s job and they are eager to do it. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-republican-national-convention/757729/1427 "2016-07-25T16:28:08Z")
**adaher** , once again, this is your wishful thinking, not analysis. I find it utterly unconvincing. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-republican-national-convention/757729/1428 "2016-07-25T16:31:30Z")
You’re hoping for a September surprise that ONLY Clinton’s team can discover and I’m the one engaging in wishful thinking? ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-republican-national-convention/757729/1429 "2016-07-25T16:31:49Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > First, the GOP hate machine has never been able to damage Clinton. That’s just a comforting lie she and her supporters delude themselves with. It’s CNN and the NY Times which damage Clinton, that and an FBI director who in hindsight may have been the one to kill her campaign dead. It has damaged her, but not as much as they would have liked. Repeating BENGHAZI!™ ad nauseam has made some otherwise reasonable people think there is something to the matter that reflects poorly on her. Likewise the phony email controversy. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-republican-national-convention/757729/1430 "2016-07-25T16:33:33Z")
Since Clinton hasn’t finished falling in the polls, we have no idea how much Comey damaged her yet. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-republican-national-convention/757729/1431 "2016-07-25T16:35:41Z")
Now [Hillary is putting Georgia in play.](http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/07/25/georgia-democrats-polling-shows-state-is-in-play-in-november/) If Trump can’t put her away in Georgia, he might be looking at a Dukakisesque finish. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-republican-national-convention/757729/1432 "2016-07-25T16:38:17Z")
Poll was taken a month ago. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-republican-national-convention/757729/1433 "2016-07-25T16:42:26Z")
Still, Democratic presidential candidates generally trail behind root canals in Georgia. That she has ever been within spitting range of Cheetoface bodes well for her. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-republican-national-convention/757729/1434 "2016-07-25T16:45:19Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > You’re hoping for a September surprise that ONLY Clinton’s team can discover and I’m the one engaging in wishful thinking? I’m not predicting/guessing; you are. I’m just hoping. Without such a “surprise”, the election could go down to the wire. But it’s far too early to be making any sort of predictions like this – they amount to nothing more than guesses. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-republican-national-convention/757729/1435 "2016-07-25T16:47:58Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Since Clinton hasn’t finished falling in the polls, we have no idea how much Comey damaged her yet. That’s water under the bridge at this point. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-republican-national-convention/757729/1436 "2016-07-25T16:51:52Z")
[This article](http://www.vox.com/2016/7/25/12270288/donald-trump-polls-beat-clinton) on convention polling argues that mid-summer polling is even less accurate than spring polling. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-republican-national-convention/757729/1437 "2016-07-25T17:08:04Z")
Accurate enough that Silver feels comfortable getting his modelling up and running. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-republican-national-convention/757729/1438 "2016-07-25T17:15:08Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Accurate enough that Silver feels comfortable getting his modelling up and running. Silver has made the same point before. It doesn’t invalidate his model at all, and chances are he’s included such effects and trends into his model. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-republican-national-convention/757729/1439 "2016-07-25T17:20:34Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Accurate enough that Silver feels comfortable getting his modelling up and running. Inasmuch as he’d had it as a tossup for awhile now, his own model is statistically equivalent to saying “I don’t know who will win.” ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-republican-national-convention/757729/1440 "2016-07-25T17:22:56Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Trump is actually only winning about 40% of the vote. The problem is that Clinton is also winning only 40% of the vote. > > Not as many people are as crazy as you think. The people you need to be worried about are the 20% who are just disgusted. How many did not express a preference at this point in previous elections? 20% doesn’t sound particularly unusual, and as in previous elections, a significant number are genuinely undecided, even though that was unfathomable given the choice between Romney and Obama, or McCain and Obama. Let’s stipulate that disgusted break even for each party. The undecideds are what the candidates are competing for. Will Trump appeal to them by continuing his primary campaign of fear and anger? Or will he pivot and address the issues that are important to them, which are empirically different than the Trump base? I don’t think he can, he only knows one song, and that is insult your enemies, only one of which is Hillary, and make up gloom and doom facts that you will magically fix without explaining how. Maybe he is a political savant who sees something no one else does, but I think he is just so self absorbed, he can’t or won’t recognize that the general election is different from the primaries. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 5:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-republican-national-convention/757729/1441 "2016-07-25T17:34:48Z")
How do all these models work differently if the 20% are not persons torn in painful indecision but people who simply don’t give a rat’s. Because its July. Trump has one glaring political weakness, its located just under his nose and above his chin. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-republican-national-convention/757729.md?page=71) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-republican-national-convention/757729.md?page=73)