I happened to stumble onto this, so excuse the late appearance.
Cal, you should hang around with writers more. We’ve been talking obsessively about this for at least a dozen years. Bookstores are zombies, dead but still giving an appearance of life.
The reason is that there are two types of book buyers. One type is like you and me and a bunch of the others here. We want all sorts of books on all sorts of subjects, whether we know the author or not.
The other type wants books by favorite authors or the hot book that everybody is talking about and not much else.
About 20 years ago, B&N and Borders caught on that they could pare down stock to fit the needs of type two and make a little profit from type one. They put bookstores into every mall in America. These did very well. Because they could sell bestsellers at a lower price, they started to drive independent bookstores out of business.
Then came the big box bookstores. Stores - like websites and television stations - make more money the longer they can keep a customer inside. Mall stores had quick traffic. Big box stores had slow traffic, with cafés and comfortable chairs and book group meetings. But Borders and B&N were essentially competing against themselves. So they started driving their own mall stores out of business.
Then came the discounters. Why bother to stock 10,000 titles when 100 of them comprise half the sales? (Literally true.) So Wal-Mart and Sam’s Club and its competitors started to stock the bestsellers even more cheaply. They now sell more than half the total of the bestseller lists. So the big box stores are being driven out of business. I’m frankly surprised that Borders is still around. (Books-a-Million, the third big box, doesn’t have 10% of the market but seems solid. They won’t absorb much Border’s business and B&N doesn’t have the money to buy them out, so when they go that’s 500 stores gone not to return.)
Then came the Internet. Why do type one people need to go to bookstores when the books are actually available and cheaper online? Internet sales are probably still no more than 10% of the business, but it’s a crucial 10%. It’s the 10% that gave profit to the remaining independents and the seeming diversity of a big box. The majority (again, I think literally so) of specialty bookstores in mystery and f&sf was doomed by the triple whammy of bestsellers, big selections at big boxes and the internet.
And the publishers are encouraging this because every major publisher in America is now a tiny, insignificant part of a multi-national conglomerate which is desperately trying to change a business with a historic 4% return into a business with a 10% return. It can’t be done, but profits from a few big name blockbusters are surer than profits from unknowns. They’d much rather print 1,000,000 copies of one pretty-sure book than 10,000 copies of 100 iffy books hoping that 2 will break out. (If this sounds exactly like the way movies are driven by blockbusters, that’s because it is the same since all the movie studios are now small parts of the same conglomerates.)
Don’t expect the Internet to change this. The long tail is sheer nonsense. Well, unknown books can be better found and can continue to sell. But only in the hundreds when thousands are needed for livelihood. It’s pocket money or a hobby or a pleasant extra, not a career.
Numbers of books published has increased. Meaningless, since that’s all driven by self-publishing of various flavors. 100,000 new titles average 100 copies sold. That’s less than a single Twilight book. Numbers of total books sold is level or down a couple of percent, with higher prices keeping revenue about equal. Again, almost all of that is due to bestsellers. Because YA & children’s titles have exploded there seems to be a lot of new interest in books, but there is no evidence that a sufficient percentage of these readers go on to adult titles. Books are like movies. Blockbusters are huge and much talked about, but the industry is dying painfully an inch below that surface.
Library funding is being slashed in almost every state. It’s the first thing to cut in a recession and many states have been in a recession for a decade. Besides, if libraries spend money they need to spend it on computers and DVDs and CDs and electronic books. Everything but print.
The good news is…
There is no good news, except that this is a slow process that will take years to fully play out. It’s not that it will happen. It has happened.