Death rates actually rising, while other categories’ death rates have been falling. This study speaks specifically of “middle-aged whites,” but from discussions in this thread and additional cites therein, it became apparent that the trend is really most evident among working-class whites. What is notable is that, among white-majority countries, this trend is unique to the United States.
Economist Paul Krugman considers and dismisses several explanations: It is not the fault of the welfare state encouraging dependency and despair, because this is a uniquely American phenomenon and the American welfare state is meager compared with other industrialized democracies’. It is probably not caused by “rising inequality and the hollowing out of the middle class,” because Hispanic Americans are much poorer than whites but have lower mortality.
So what is going on? In a recent interview Mr. Deaton suggested that middle-aged whites have “lost the narrative of their lives.” That is, their economic setbacks have hit hard because they expected better. Or to put it a bit differently, we’re looking at people who were raised to believe in the American Dream, and are coping badly with its failure to come true.
That sounds like a plausible hypothesis to me, but the truth is that we don’t really know why despair appears to be spreading across Middle America. But it clearly is, with troubling consequences for our society as a whole.
In particular, I know I’m not the only observer who sees a link between the despair reflected in those mortality numbers and the volatility of right-wing politics. Some people who feel left behind by the American story turn self-destructive; others turn on the elites they feel have betrayed them. No, deporting immigrants and wearing baseball caps bearing slogans won’t solve their problems, but neither will cutting taxes on capital gains. So you can understand why some voters have rallied around politicians who at least seem to feel their pain.
At this point you probably expect me to offer a solution. But while universal health care, higher minimum wages, aid to education, and so on would do a lot to help Americans in trouble, I’m not sure whether they’re enough to cure existential despair.