According to Bill Bryson’s A Short History of Nearly Everything (presumably via scientists he interviewed), it’s highly probably that we would have about zero warning of a large asteroid strike. It’s stated that were an asteroid a few hundred yards across to approach Earth, we would have at most a few days warning, and that only if someone with a telescope happened to be looking in the right direction at the right time. In the 90s, there were several orbit-crossing rocks that someone only saw *after *they had passed by.
How about ‘mutating nutrinos cause a pole shift’?
That would have been true in the 90s, but I think that is outdated. There are a number of ongoing efforts to identify NEOs using automated survey telescopes. It’s estimated that over 90% of them over 1km have now been discovered. For example, in 2010 Pan-STARRS discovered an asteroid of less than 60m in diameter a month before it made it’s closest approach to Earth. The larger the object, the better the chance of detection. These surveys are not comprehensive, but the odds are definitely in favour of detection for large NEOs.
An asteroid of a few hundred meters, the minimum required to cause the effects seen in The Road, would be naked-eye visible, but I’m not sure for how long before impact.
Of course it’s ambiguous, he’d have spelt it out otherwise.
From the book (I have not seen the film) I came away with the impression that he had been involved with the development of the superweapon that ended life as we know it. But it has been a while since I read the book.
You only watched the movie, huh?
I read the first 2/3rds of the book. Then lost it changing planes. I never saw the movie, any good?
Yes…and maybe…
Yes in that its the most realistic and gritty post apocalyptic film I’ve ever seen, they actually had the guts to stick to the damn premise. Remember too the film takes place ten years into a total apocalypse, not a single crop has been harvested in ten years. With that in mind the sheer depressing morbidity makes total sense, this really is a world without hope and at the point we come in humanity is literally on its last legs and total extinction seems likely. In some ways this is a more depressing reality than a zombie apocalypse even, at least there plants and animals still exist.
Maybe in that it really is too depressing to watch repeatedly, this is the first post apoc movie that had me throwing my hands up and saying “fuck it game over man!” and I’m usually the one hating the survival is pointless characters in zombie flicks.
So it’s a good movie for a first date?
It’s the perfect movie for people who thought On The Beach was too cheerful.
It was a laff-riot!
If a nuclear winter or whathaveyou has killed everything off, I don’t know why anyone would expect a recovery. Plants and animals aren’t just going to spontaneously regenerate, regardless of how much time has gone by.
It was one of the first dates I went on with a former boyfriend.
But the Road was published in I think 2003 and it is not clear when the story is supposed to take place. If in the fictional world the catastrophe happened in 1988 for instance it seems very believable to me that an asteroid could have hit without warning.
Where did you get that impression from?
I just realized that I read the book in black and white in my mind. The idea that the movie is in color seems odd.
Not much color, though, the cinematography captured that essence of the film perfectly.
The world drained of its vitality, creative force and color.
-Hmmm, drained, perhaps a planet-sized cosmic vampire?
Seeds can lie dormant for a very long time. Some 30,000 year old fruit which were frozen in permafrost have been successfully grown.
That’s true. Even in 2003 the chances of detecting a close asteroid approach were less than they are now. My point about naked eye visibility stands, but I’m not sure how much warning that would give. Apohis, a 270m asteroid, will reach a peak magnitude of 3.4 when it makes a close approach in 2029. That would put it in the top 300 or so brightest night sky objects, so it would be very noticeable for anyone who knows their constellations. A road asteroid would be larger, but I’m not sure how long it would be that bright for, given the speed of approach.
A nuclear winter wouldn’t really kill off all plant life, would it?
It might devastate crops and mostly wipe out humanity, but plant life in aggregate is pretty hardy. If there’s enough light to see by, there’s enough light to photosynthesize. Something would be growing.
Doesn’t he find old apples in a field somewhere. Were those supposed to be ten-year-old apples?
The Planetary Society is doing good work to track potential space threats to Earth: http://planetary.org/programs/projects/targetearth/
ISTR an interview with Cormac McCarthy, around the time Oprah picked The Road as one of her featured books, in which he said much the same.