# The Run to Super Bowl Licks (LIX). 2024 NFL playoffs **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Tags:** football-nfl\ **Created:** [December 9, 2024, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-run-to-super-bowl-licks-lix-2024-nfl-playoffs/1011410 "2024-12-09T18:14:58Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 21
**Author:** ![jnglmassiv](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f07891/32.png) [@jnglmassiv](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jnglmassiv)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2025, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-run-to-super-bowl-licks-lix-2024-nfl-playoffs/1011410/401 "2025-01-28T22:28:44Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > “Palpably unfair” should be something so rare I’d hope a nonplayer intentionally interfering with would do it. Same with getting busted using a cheating device like unauthorized electronics or ball deflater or maybe equipment tampered with to cause injury like sharpened spikes or weighted gloves. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2025, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-run-to-super-bowl-licks-lix-2024-nfl-playoffs/1011410/402 "2025-01-29T02:55:16Z")
> [@John\_DiFool](#): > > Across many sports and for as long as professional leagues have existed (amateur too) the kind of insane luck that KC has benefited from this year is ALWAYS followed by a fall, meaning that said clutch “skill” is not repeatable and thus generally illusory. I’ve been saying that ALL YEAR and yet here we are with KC in the Super Bowl. They are going to win by no more than one score. ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2025, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-run-to-super-bowl-licks-lix-2024-nfl-playoffs/1011410/403 "2025-01-29T03:10:52Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > I’ve been saying that ALL YEAR and yet here we are with KC in the Super Bowl. > > They are going to win by no more than one score. Relying on this kind of luck to the very end hasn’t worked out very well historically for very many teams and is generally not a sound strategy going into a given season (or postseason). I simply don’t buy much of the Mahomes mythology that you are echoing, which actually is similar to a lot of the stuff that they used to say about John Elway. Elway’s best two seasons happened to be the years the Broncos won the Super Bowl tho, note. There have been rather mediocre teams which have won it all: Ravens 2012, maybe the Giants the previous year, or even better (worse) in 2007 (they also won 3 squeakers in a row to get the prize); hard to identify such teams tho before the turn of the millenium (likely due to the expanded playoffs). Losers would include the 2008 Cards, 1996 Pats, 1995 Steelers, 1994 Chargers for sure, 1979 Rams. I’d rather be good than lucky, tl;dr. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2025, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-run-to-super-bowl-licks-lix-2024-nfl-playoffs/1011410/404 "2025-01-29T03:32:00Z")
> [@John\_DiFool](#): > > I simply don’t buy much of the Mahomes mythology that you are echoing, which actually is similar to a lot of the stuff that they used to say about John Elway. It’s not about Mahomes. There’s a reason he wasn’t in true consideration for MVP this year (not in the discussions I’ve listened to at least). It’s that they just keep winning “somehow”. I don’t know how a team that seems to struggle against everyone grabs the #1 seed; was the first to do so in fact. But in one score games they are undefeated for the past 17 games in a row, a record in the NFL. If a team doesn’t dominate them, they don’t lose. And they won 17 games this year (including the postseason), and 11 of those wins were by one score. It doesn’t make logical sense to me but I can’t deny that it keeps happening. Something about that team is built to win that way. After a while, it’s illogical to call it luck. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2025, 10:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-run-to-super-bowl-licks-lix-2024-nfl-playoffs/1011410/405 "2025-01-29T10:03:16Z")
> [@John\_DiFool](#): > > I simply don’t buy much of the Mahomes mythology that you are echoing, which actually is similar to a lot of the stuff that they used to say about John Elway. Elway played for 16 seasons (15 as a full-time starter) and led his team to 5 Super Bowls, winning 2. His team made the playoffs 9 times, and his career playoff record was 14-7. Mahomes is in his 8th season (7th as a full-time starter) and has led his team to 5 Super Bowls, winning 3, with 1 yet to be played. His team has made the playoffs all 7 years, and his career playoff record is 17-3. Both men were/are outstanding quarterbacks, but Mahomes’ postseason stats are clearly superior. You don’t have to believe the mythology, but you cannot doubt the numbers. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2025, 12:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-run-to-super-bowl-licks-lix-2024-nfl-playoffs/1011410/406 "2025-01-29T12:58:33Z")
While I don’t doubt Mahomes is a great QB, using playoff win-loss stats is a questionable measure. By that token, Eli Manning (8-4 playoff record) has a similar percentage to Elway and up there while Dan Marino (8-10 playoff record) is not. ---
**Author:** ![Jasmine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jasmine/32/2964_2.png) [@Jasmine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jasmine)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2025, 1:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-run-to-super-bowl-licks-lix-2024-nfl-playoffs/1011410/407 "2025-01-29T13:08:50Z")
> [@Great\_Antibob](#): > > While I don’t doubt Mahomes is a great QB, using playoff win-loss stats is a questionable measure. I really think the secret with the Chiefs in general and Mahomes in particular is that they simply know how to win. We’ve all heard many standard “talking heads” statements and that includes things like, “The Bears have a quarterback that is for real and considerable talent, but they have to learn how to win.” KC and Mahomes have simply mastered the methodology. Someone has to teach them how to lose. LOL ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2025, 1:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-run-to-super-bowl-licks-lix-2024-nfl-playoffs/1011410/408 "2025-01-29T13:17:46Z")
> [@Great\_Antibob](#): > > using playoff win-loss stats is a questionable measure Sure - small samples can be tough to work with. How about this I saw the other day: “Mahomes also now owns a winning record for his career in games that he trailed at some point in the fourth quarter at **27-26**. That’s easily the best mark for any quarterback in league history, and the next closest winning percentage – compiled by Daryle Lamonica – is just .386.” I’m assuming that’s applying a minimum number of games to eliminate noise - but that’s an insane stat. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2025, 2:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-run-to-super-bowl-licks-lix-2024-nfl-playoffs/1011410/409 "2025-01-29T14:15:48Z")
Aside from Chiefs fatigue, another reason I am rooting for the Eagles is the Saquon Barkley renaissance. I haven’t seen a running back dominate games like this since maybe LaDanian Tomlinson. The NFL is so pass focused these days, it’s great to see such a talented running back crushing opposing defenses so regularly. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2025, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-run-to-super-bowl-licks-lix-2024-nfl-playoffs/1011410/410 "2025-01-29T14:29:58Z")
> [@Jasmine](#): > > is that they simply know how to win. Ah yes, the mystical “they just know”. There’s no need to look for a secret sauce. They drafted and traded well, they got a good coach who knew how to build a good staff, and they have good alignment between their front office and coaching staff. Small sample sizes explains the rest of it. Those things sound simple but they aren’t easy nor easily replicated. And a bit of luck is always involved, even with great teams. And with impatient owners, few GMs, HCs, or players are given a real chance to get to that point or stay there. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2025, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-run-to-super-bowl-licks-lix-2024-nfl-playoffs/1011410/411 "2025-01-29T14:53:53Z")
One unusual piece of the puzzle for the Chiefs is continuity of coaching. Spags has been the defensive coordinator for this entire dynasty, and I believe Andy Reid has been calling the plays the entire time as well. Normally after a Superbowl or two you lose one or both of your coordinators. Spags seems to be content to stay a DC, having already had some head coaching experience. And if Andy Reid is calling the plays anyway it doesn’t matter who the OC is. ---
**Author:** ![Jasmine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jasmine/32/2964_2.png) [@Jasmine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jasmine)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2025, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-run-to-super-bowl-licks-lix-2024-nfl-playoffs/1011410/412 "2025-01-29T15:13:07Z")
> [@Great\_Antibob](#): > > There’s no need to look for a secret sauce. They drafted and traded well, they got a good coach who knew how to build a good staff, and they have good alignment between their front office and coaching staff. I certainly agree with that, but I still say that teams have a “personality”, and the confidence and know-how it takes to win consistently has to be cultivated. If they need a stop defensively, they get that stop. If they need a drive, they get the drive, etc. I remember a number of years ago when the Detroit Lions had a young Ndamukong Suh and a great defense overall. They were markedly better than the Bears but, despite the fact that we had our usual mediocre to poor coaching and despite our usual ratty team culture, they kept finding ways to lose to us. ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2025, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-run-to-super-bowl-licks-lix-2024-nfl-playoffs/1011410/413 "2025-01-29T15:16:34Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > I believe Andy Reid has been calling the plays the entire time as well. Spags has been with the Chiefs since this team’s first SB win in 2019. Reid has been the HC since 2013. > [@EllisDee](#): > > And if Andy Reid is calling the plays anyway it doesn’t matter who the OC is. He’s certainly the offensive mind, but the OC under Reid still has a min influence on the game plan. Lots of fans really dislike Matt Nagy, and blame him for the low-output offense the Chefs have had this season. I miss Bienemy. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2025, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-run-to-super-bowl-licks-lix-2024-nfl-playoffs/1011410/414 "2025-01-29T15:19:54Z")
I tend to discount intangible “attitude” or “personality” because it’s a cheap out for fans, coaches, players, and so on. There’s a lot of work involved in drafting and trading well, developing those players, developing and training a coaching staff that works well with each other, and having alignment between all levels of a program. Those things are not easy, even for successful teams. And putting it down to some magical “attitude” or “personality” discounts a lot of that work. They make those sorts of things happen routinely because a TON of preparation was done, sometimes years in advance. If that comes across as a team “identity”, well, whatever works for them. But the blood, sweat, and tears matter a lot more. ---
**Author:** ![muldoonthief](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/muldoonthief/32/3188_2.png) [@muldoonthief](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/muldoonthief)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2025, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-run-to-super-bowl-licks-lix-2024-nfl-playoffs/1011410/415 "2025-01-29T15:23:59Z")
Right, but there are some (but not all) Unsportsmanlike penalties that if you get 2 in a single game, you’re automatically disqualified. > **[2024 NFL Rulebook | NFL Football Operations](https://operations.nfl.com/the-rules/nfl-rulebook/#section-3-unsportsmanlike-conduct)** > > Explore the official 2024 NFL rulebook. And looking at those rules, the refs didn’t have to use the “palpably unfair act” rule - there’s a rule that’s specifically designed for these circumstances: > **##### Article 2. Fouls To Prevent Score** > > The defense shall not commit successive or repeated fouls to prevent a score. > > **Penalty: For successive or repeated fouls to prevent a score: If the violation is repeated after a warning, the score involved is awarded to the offensive team.** vs: > **##### Article 4. Palpably Unfair Act** > > A player or substitute shall not interfere with play by any act which is palpably unfair. > > **Penalty: For a palpably unfair act: Offender may be disqualified. The Referee, after consulting the officiating crew, enforces any such distance penalty as they consider equitable and irrespective of any other specified code penalty. The Referee may award a score. See [19-1-3](https://operations.nfl.com/the-rules/nfl-rulebook/#article-3-referees-authority).** ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2025, 3:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-run-to-super-bowl-licks-lix-2024-nfl-playoffs/1011410/416 "2025-01-29T15:45:03Z")
> [@Great\_Antibob](#): > > using playoff win-loss stats is a questionable measure. I don’t dispute that, but I was responding to the assertion by @John_DiFool that the hype surrounding Mahomes was akin to the hype that surrounded Elway during his career. And I think he was saying that the hype in both cases was overblown. So let’s look at regular season career stats: Elway was 148-82-1, with a 56.9% career completion percentage, and he averaged 7.1 yards per attempt. He threw for 300 touchdowns with 226 interceptions. Mahomes is 89-23-0, with a 66.6% completion percentage, and he averages 7.8 yards per attempt. Thus far, he has thrown for 245 touchdowns with 74 interceptions. I know I won’t convince anybody that the ‘mythology’ surrounding Mahomes is justified, but those are impressive numbers when compared with a HOF quarterback. ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2025, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-run-to-super-bowl-licks-lix-2024-nfl-playoffs/1011410/417 "2025-01-29T15:59:13Z")
> [@Railer13](#): > > I know I won’t convince anybody that the ‘mythology’ surrounding Mahomes is justified, but those are impressive numbers when compared with a HOF quarterback. My point was that the hype over Elway was the exact same kind as I have been seeing about Mahomes, not that they were equivalent talents. Annnd he has had, by his prior standards, 2 somewhat off seasons in a row now. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2025, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-run-to-super-bowl-licks-lix-2024-nfl-playoffs/1011410/418 "2025-01-29T16:53:58Z")
> [@Railer13](#): > > impressive numbers when compared with a HOF quarterback. You can’t really compare passing numbers from different eras. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2025, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-run-to-super-bowl-licks-lix-2024-nfl-playoffs/1011410/419 "2025-01-29T17:41:47Z")
> [@John\_DiFool](#): > > My point was that the hype over Elway was the exact same kind as I have been seeing about Mahomes, not that they were equivalent talents. Then I guess I totally missed your point. Are you saying that they were both over-hyped? If so, I guess my point is that perhaps the Mahomes hype was a bit more justified than the Elway hype. > [@EllisDee](#): > > You can’t really compare passing numbers from different eras. But you can compare won-loss records and percentages, yes? If my math is correct: Elway’s won-loss percentage was .643. Mahomes is .794. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2025, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-run-to-super-bowl-licks-lix-2024-nfl-playoffs/1011410/420 "2025-01-29T17:55:24Z")
There’s no real basis to favor one of these teams over the other. They’ve both been dominant in their conference, both returning to the Super Bowl after a narrowly decided game last year. The odds slightly favoring Kansas City are probably only based on the volume of betting for them. And of course Elway was a good quarterback on a team that couldn’t handle NFC defenses at the time so his stats and comparison to Mahomes doesn’t reveal anything useful. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-run-to-super-bowl-licks-lix-2024-nfl-playoffs/1011410.md?page=20) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-run-to-super-bowl-licks-lix-2024-nfl-playoffs/1011410.md?page=22)