# The situation in Kazakhstan (2022) **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 6, 2022, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-situation-in-kazakhstan-2022/957325 "2022-01-06T14:45:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2022, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-situation-in-kazakhstan-2022/957325/1 "2022-01-06T14:45:27Z")
Whoa! Large protests in an authoritarian regime; both protestors and police officers dead, mealy-mouthed double-talk from the embattled leader, Russian military assistance… This is some pretty epic stuff going on. But will anything really change? > **[Dozens of protesters, 12 police dead in Kazakhstan protests](https://apnews.com/article/business-kazakhstan-b263d10d8b982c521dd5188964036348)** > > MOSCOW (AP) — Security forces in Kazakhstan killed dozens of protesters and 12 police officers died in an eruption of violence that saw demonstrators storm government buildings and set them on fire, authorities said Thursday. > **[EXPLAINER: What's behind unrest rocking oil-rich Kazakhstan](https://apnews.com/article/business-europe-russia-moscow-kazakhstan-3349e68089ccdbcd08e76a5e8fd4a909)** > > MOSCOW (AP) — Kazakhstan is experiencing the worst street protests the country has seen since gaining independence three decades ago. The outburst of instability is causing significant concern in Kazakhstan's two powerful neighbors: Russia and... ---
**Author:** ![Daithi\_Lacha](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/daithi_lacha/32/5430_2.png) [@Daithi\_Lacha](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Daithi_Lacha)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2022, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-situation-in-kazakhstan-2022/957325/2 "2022-01-06T15:35:30Z")
There’s some poster in The Hill’s comment section that’s continually talking about “The Kazakh Mafia.” I took it as just another conspiracy - perhaps a coded reference like “The Rothschilds” or “Global Elite” - but maybe there’s something to it? ---
**Author:** ![Daithi\_Lacha](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/daithi_lacha/32/5430_2.png) [@Daithi\_Lacha](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Daithi_Lacha)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2022, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-situation-in-kazakhstan-2022/957325/3 "2022-01-06T15:39:04Z")
Aaaaaaand never mind my last comment. I just remembered he’s talking about the “Khazar Mafia,” and yes, that’s an anti-Semitic trope. SIGH. ---
**Author:** ![Chad\_Sudan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chad_sudan/32/4509_2.png) [@Chad\_Sudan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chad_Sudan)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2022, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-situation-in-kazakhstan-2022/957325/4 "2022-01-06T15:43:18Z")
If the Kazakh regime is desperate and/or pro-Russian enough to call in Russian “peacekeepers,” as they have done, then I doubt the status quo can change. Hard to imagine popular demonstrations chasing Russian troops out of a Central Asian republic. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2022, 1:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-situation-in-kazakhstan-2022/957325/5 "2022-01-07T13:31:30Z")
Hard to see the Russian troops leaving when it’s over, too. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2022, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-situation-in-kazakhstan-2022/957325/6 "2022-01-07T14:43:20Z")
**Warning: completely unsubstantiated CT follows please don protective foil headgear before proceeding** I would not be surprised if Putin encouraged this sort of unrest via social meidia precisely to get this sort of result. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2022, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-situation-in-kazakhstan-2022/957325/7 "2022-01-07T16:19:21Z")
Shit is getting really real: > **[Kazakh president: Forces can shoot to kill to quell unrest](https://apnews.com/article/kazakhstan-law-enforcement-agencies-6dc8df9639367c3845aa00a008072997)** > > MOSCOW (AP) — Kazakhstan’s president authorized security forces on Friday to shoot to kill those participating in unrest, opening the door for a dramatic escalation in a crackdown on anti-government protests that have turned violent. ---
**Author:** ![Johanna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johanna/32/8318_2.png) [@Johanna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johanna)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2022, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-situation-in-kazakhstan-2022/957325/8 "2022-01-07T18:47:59Z")
An entirely grass-roots uprising (over fuel prices; that’s how you know it’s grass-roots. Food or fuel prices are the only issues that cause protests to rise spontaneously with no planning.) There was no organized opposition to plan protests. This was as grass-roots and spontaneous as it ever gets. So the government says they’ve detected foreign operatives in the matter, so they call in Russia and Russia’s henchthugs (Belarus, etc.) to kill Kazakhs for them… the truth is that the foreign operatives were the Russians who were called in— you see how this works? ---
**Author:** ![SunUp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ea5d25/32.png) [@SunUp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SunUp)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2022, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-situation-in-kazakhstan-2022/957325/9 "2022-01-07T19:26:23Z")
Just think: Almaty was the runner-up to Beijing to host the Winter Olympics next month. I’m sure the IOC is looking at Kazakhstan and thinking “no matter how bad for PR China is, think just how much worse it could be…” There’s another angle on this: if Russia is sending troops, is that going to stretch their military overmuch in the event of a hypothetical contemporaneous Ukraine conflict? Any experts in Russian military capabilities like to weigh in? ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2022, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-situation-in-kazakhstan-2022/957325/10 "2022-01-07T20:12:35Z")
Our paper reported Russia is sending between 3000 and 3500 troops. I doubt they would be destabilized by this. The protestors are upset Kazakhstan is controlled completely by 120 families. The fuel subsidy was recently stopped. It was restarted after rioting began and so is not the only reason. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2022, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-situation-in-kazakhstan-2022/957325/11 "2022-01-07T20:27:03Z")
Fuel prices were the match, but there was a whole pile of tinder sitting there already. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2022, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-situation-in-kazakhstan-2022/957325/12 "2022-01-07T20:32:38Z")
Asking for Russian troops has doomed the Kazakh oligarchs. It shows they’ve lost their grip on power. Either they’ll be overthrown by their countrymen or they’ll be overthrown by the Russians. Putin doesn’t want oligarchs who need hand holding. ---
**Author:** ![Maika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maika/32/9919_2.png) [@Maika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maika)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2022, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-situation-in-kazakhstan-2022/957325/13 "2022-01-07T20:47:22Z")
While the initial uprising over LPG prices, inequalities and lack of democratic reforms does seem to be grassroots, there is no doubt to me that Tokayev is using the ongoing protests and CSTO to strengthen his rule over the security apparatus. The recent purges within the intelligence services, the cabinet reshuffle and the demotion of Nazarbayev as head of the Security Council (and of his daughter as leader of the Senate last year) seem to be pointing at a rift in elite circles with Tokayev making moves and emerging as the new strongman in a post-Nazarbayev era. However, with the Russian-led CSTO intervention, it will come at a price for Kazakh domestic and foreign policy, which had been hailed for its multidimensional and balanced relations with Russia, China and the West despite being obviously part of Russia’s sphere of influence. Expect Kazakhstan to recognize’s Russia annexation of Crimea for instance. While it is too early to predict the domestic political consequences of this uprising and what will come out of the CSTO intervention, in the end, Kazakhstan’s traditional multivectoriality and sovereignty will be the biggest losers. ---
**Author:** ![Maika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maika/32/9919_2.png) [@Maika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maika)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2022, 6:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-situation-in-kazakhstan-2022/957325/14 "2022-01-08T06:22:27Z")
Getting more interesting by the hour. Karim Massimov, former Prime Minister, former head of national intelligence (until his dismissal three days ago) and a staunch Nazarbayev ally was just arrested for “high treason”. Coming a day after Tokayev blamed the security apparatus for failing to prevent unrest, this is sounding more and more like an elite struggle and the protests (whether entirely grassroots or partially) are being used as a pretext for Tokayev to further consolidate his power (but at what cost?). ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2022, 11:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-situation-in-kazakhstan-2022/957325/15 "2022-01-09T11:06:48Z")
Truly interesting times for Kazakhstan: > **[Kazakhstan says 164 killed in last week's protests](https://apnews.com/article/europe-russia-kazakhstan-almaty-e8041ebee995d41050e6919ea0cdca64)** > > MOSCOW (AP) — Kazakhstan authorities said Sunday that 164 people, including a 4-year-old girl, were killed in a week of protests that marked the worst unrest since the former Soviet republic gained independence 30 years ago. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2022, 1:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-situation-in-kazakhstan-2022/957325/16 "2022-01-09T13:04:42Z")
That same link is now showing: > [@](#): > > Kazakhstan’s health ministry said Sunday that 164 people have been killed in protests that have rocked the country over the past week. > > The figures reported on the state news channel Khabar-24 are a significant rise from previous tallies. It is not clear if the deaths refer only to civilians or if law-enforcement deaths are included. Kazakh authorities said earlier Sunday that 16 police or national guard had been killed. Authorities previously gave the civilian death toll as 26. > > Most of the deaths — 103 — were in Almaty, the country’s largest city, where demonstrators seized government buildings and set some afire, according to the ministry. the country’s ombudswoman for children’s rights said that three of those killed were minors, including a 4-year-old girl. > > The ministry earlier reported more than 2,200 people sought treatment for injuries from the protests, and the Interior Ministry said about 1,300 security officers were injured. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2022, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-situation-in-kazakhstan-2022/957325/17 "2022-01-10T21:06:33Z")
8000 detained now: > **[Nearly 8,000 detained in Kazakhstan over violent protests](https://apnews.com/article/kazakhstan-europe-national-security-terrorism-2c026ecb00584aba668f320d4482d0f1)** > > MOSCOW (AP) — Nearly 8,000 people in Kazakhstan were detained by police during protests that descended into violence last week and marked the worst unrest the former Soviet nation has faced since gaining independence 30 years ago, authorities said... ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2022, 12:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-situation-in-kazakhstan-2022/957325/18 "2022-01-16T00:33:27Z")
Here’s a recap, from the POV of the protestors: > **[Kazakhstan activists recall path from protest to bloodshed](https://apnews.com/article/kazakhstan-europe-asia-central-asia-almaty-3c1e8b0bf38dbdf7ccd0427aa6159319)** > > ALMATY, Kazakhstan (AP) — The mass protests in Kazakhstan began peacefully over the New Year's weekend, with marchers denouncing a sharp rise in fuel prices. ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2022, 12:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-situation-in-kazakhstan-2022/957325/19 "2022-01-17T12:52:16Z")
It does rather look as though one or another faction in the elite have been trying to ride the popular wave, or use it as an excuse to get rid of the other. [https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/16/where-is-kazakhstans-former-longtime-leader-nursultan-nazarbayev](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/16/where-is-kazakhstans-former-longtime-leader-nursultan-nazarbayev) ---
**Author:** ![Johanna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johanna/32/8318_2.png) [@Johanna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johanna)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2022, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-situation-in-kazakhstan-2022/957325/20 "2022-01-19T19:31:04Z")
Wonder if the capital city’s name will revert to Astana. Or even the original Aqmola. Tokayev looks like a cartoon villain with that shock of white hair.