# The South Korean and German death rate is quite low. Why is this happening? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [March 16, 2020, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-south-korean-and-german-death-rate-is-quite-low-why-is-this-happening/849560 "2020-03-16T02:35:32Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 18\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![MaverocK](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9de0a6/32.png) [@MaverocK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MaverocK)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-south-korean-and-german-death-rate-is-quite-low-why-is-this-happening/849560/1 "2020-03-16T02:35:32Z")
Look at the total cases / deaths ratio. Germany: 5813 / 11 > **[Germany COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/)** > > Germany Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline. South Korea: 8236 / 75 > **[South Korea COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/)** > > South Korea Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline. In comparison to Italy, China and Iran, they are (currently) doing better. Why? ---
**Author:** ![Ethilrist](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ethilrist/32/4604_2.png) [@Ethilrist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ethilrist)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-south-korean-and-german-death-rate-is-quite-low-why-is-this-happening/849560/2 "2020-03-16T02:42:02Z")
I haven’t looked into it much, but apparently the high numbers for Korea are due to one cult that had huge gatherings and therefore a lot of infected people. They’re also very insular and kept to themselves, so those aren’t general-population numbers. Once they started isolating themselves (even more than they already were), that would keep the number of new infections down. ---
**Author:** ![Aspidistra](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspidistra/32/3894_2.png) [@Aspidistra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspidistra)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 3:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-south-korean-and-german-death-rate-is-quite-low-why-is-this-happening/849560/3 "2020-03-16T03:09:46Z")
South Korea has tested an absolute shitload of people. So they will catch many more mild or asymptomatic cases, as well as catching cases earlier. Also, because they are now on top of the pandemic (new cases per day are going right down) their health system is not overwhelmed with cases. I’m not sure what Germany’s situation is. Are they also doing lots of testing? Or do they just have a very good health system? ---
**Author:** ![leahcim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/b4bc9f/32.png) [@leahcim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/leahcim)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 4:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-south-korean-and-german-death-rate-is-quite-low-why-is-this-happening/849560/4 "2020-03-16T04:08:38Z")
In the German page you cite (at the time I read it), the number of “closed” cases is only 59, with 13 deaths, giving a 22% death rate. This is no doubt an overestimate of the actual mortality rate, because the cases identified and closed earliest are going to be the more serious ones. But a comparison of “active” cases to deaths is likely an underestimate because some of the active cases will turn fatal. On the other side, South Korea is famously doing a lot of testing, even on seemingly healthy people, so they are identifying a lot of asymptomatic or mild cases that other countries don’t see (of course, if the test has a significant false positive rate and the actual infection rate is rare, some of those “asymptomatic cases” are really just false positives). Long story short, it is hard to do proper statistics on these things and a variations in measurement methodology mean a lot. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 6:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-south-korean-and-german-death-rate-is-quite-low-why-is-this-happening/849560/5 "2020-03-16T06:23:32Z")
I really don’t - here in Israel, we’ve had around around 250 identified cases, but no deaths yet (touch wood). I don’t think there’s been a particularly high level of testing, either. Maybe the health system is somehow still working. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2020, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-south-korean-and-german-death-rate-is-quite-low-why-is-this-happening/849560/6 "2020-03-17T00:23:40Z")
The question about Germany asked in [Euronews](https://www.euronews.com/2020/03/13/coronavirus-why-does-germany-have-so-few-covid-19-deaths) - 1. Yes they are testing more than only the very sickest so will end up getting a better sense of the true infection mortality rate. 2. “Will” is an operative word there. Cases are fairly new and it death rates lag new infection rate. Recovery rate lags much farther yet. It’s just too early, on too steep a section of the curve to take either mortality rate, let alone deaths/“resolved cases” rate as very meaningful. South Korea is farther along with new case numbers dropping and their numbers are more believable as representing closer to true infection mortality rate (still missing many infections but also some yet to die). They are running currently a confirmed case mortality rate of 0.9%. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2020, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-south-korean-and-german-death-rate-is-quite-low-why-is-this-happening/849560/7 "2020-03-17T00:27:15Z")
The question about Germany asked in [Euronews](https://www.euronews.com/2020/03/13/coronavirus-why-does-germany-have-so-few-covid-19-deaths) - 1. Yes they are testing more than only the very sickest so will end up getting a better sense of the true infection mortality rate. 2. “Will” is an operative word there. Cases are fairly new and it death rates lag new infection rate. Recovery rate lags much farther yet. It’s just too early, on too steep a section of the curve to take either mortality rate, let alone deaths/“resolved cases” rate as very meaningful. South Korea is farther along with new case numbers dropping and their numbers are more believable as representing closer to true infection mortality rate (still missing many infections but also some yet to die). They are running currently a confirmed case mortality rate of 0.9%. ---
**Author:** ![BwanaBob](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bwanabob/32/2985_2.png) [@BwanaBob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BwanaBob)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2020, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-south-korean-and-german-death-rate-is-quite-low-why-is-this-happening/849560/8 "2020-03-17T13:57:34Z")
Wouldn’t you have to know how much of their respective populations are a) over 80 and b) have COPD or other risk factors? A country with a lot of “healthy” elders would presumably have a lower fatality rate. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Librarian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_librarian/32/402_2.png) [@The\_Librarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Librarian)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2020, 12:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-south-korean-and-german-death-rate-is-quite-low-why-is-this-happening/849560/9 "2020-03-19T12:22:44Z")
I read an article in today’s paper that from our (the Netherlands) ~60 casualties only 15 got to the IC. Others were judged to be better of in a normal bed. These cases were already very old and poorly and dokters estimated their chances of a meaningful recovery slim. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2020, 1:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-south-korean-and-german-death-rate-is-quite-low-why-is-this-happening/849560/10 "2020-03-19T13:06:11Z")
As this point, the variance in death rates is likely going to be as much a matter of measurement and sampling as it is health outcomes. Statistically speaking, comparing mortality rates between countries is jkust not a thing you can reliably do right now unless (and maybe even if) you have a huge amount of underlyong data to take noise out of the system and you’re a professional statistician who and can put together a pretty slicks statistical analysis plan. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2020, 1:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-south-korean-and-german-death-rate-is-quite-low-why-is-this-happening/849560/11 "2020-03-19T13:06:26Z")
As this point, the variance in death rates is likely going to be as much a matter of measurement and sampling as it is health outcomes. Statistically speaking, comparing mortality rates between countries is jkust not a thing you can reliably do right now unless (and maybe even if) you have a huge amount of underlyong data to take noise out of the system and you’re a professional statistician who and can put together a pretty slicks statistical analysis plan. ---
**Author:** ![polar\_bear](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ec9cab/32.png) [@polar\_bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/polar_bear)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2020, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-south-korean-and-german-death-rate-is-quite-low-why-is-this-happening/849560/12 "2020-03-19T14:47:18Z")
In consultation with family, as far as I have understood. Not just doctors deciding when it is worth the “hassle” and when not. Eta… trying to quote librarian here Verstuurd vanaf mijn moto g(6) met Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2020, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-south-korean-and-german-death-rate-is-quite-low-why-is-this-happening/849560/13 "2020-03-19T15:02:20Z")
I’ve said many times before, that the truly relevant measure is not deaths per infected or infected per population, but deaths per population. If your deaths per population is low, then that might mean that you’re preventing the spread so few get infected, or it might mean that you’re giving good care to those who are infected so they’re less likely to die, or it might mean a combination of those… but the bottom line is that it doesn’t matter, because whatever it is you’re doing, you’re doing it right. And as an added bonus, calculating deaths per population only requires easily-known numbers, without any guesses needed as to the difficult-to-determine number of infected. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Librarian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_librarian/32/402_2.png) [@The\_Librarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Librarian)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2020, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-south-korean-and-german-death-rate-is-quite-low-why-is-this-happening/849560/14 "2020-03-19T17:25:36Z")
> [@polar\_bear](#): > > In consultation with family, as far as I have understood. Not just doctors deciding when it is worth the “hassle” and when not. > > Eta… trying to quote librarian here > > Verstuurd vanaf mijn moto g(6) met Tapatalk Link to the article: [https://www.volkskrant.nl/es-b9c5660d](https://www.volkskrant.nl/es-b9c5660d) (in Dutch/soft paywall) ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2020, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-south-korean-and-german-death-rate-is-quite-low-why-is-this-happening/849560/15 "2020-03-19T18:25:38Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > If your deaths per population is low, then that might mean that you’re preventing the spread so few get infected, or it might mean that you’re giving good care to those who are infected so they’re less likely to die, or it might mean a combination of those… but the bottom line is that it doesn’t matter, because whatever it is you’re doing, you’re doing it right. It matters, because if some places are doing it right, other places need to know what “doing it right” is so that they can do that too. Unfortunately, as others have said, a lot of the information really isn’t available yet. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2020, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-south-korean-and-german-death-rate-is-quite-low-why-is-this-happening/849560/16 "2020-03-20T03:14:15Z")
Although [this _Science_ article](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/coronavirus-cases-have-dropped-sharply-south-korea-whats-secret-its-success) addresses it well. > [@](#): > > The country of 50 million appears to have greatly slowed its epidemic; it reported only 74 new cases today, down from 909 at its peak on 29 February. And it has done so without locking down entire cities or taking some of the other authoritarian measures that helped China bring its epidemic under control. “South Korea is a democratic republic, we feel a lockdown is not a reasonable choice,” says Kim Woo-Joo, an infectious disease specialist at Korea University. South Korea’s success may hold lessons for other countries—and also a warning: Even after driving case numbers down, the country is braced for a resurgence. > > Behind its success so far has been the most expansive and well-organized testing program in the world, combined with extensive efforts to isolate infected people and trace and quarantine their contacts. South Korea has tested more than 270,000 people, which amounts to more than 5200 tests per million inhabitants—more than any other country except tiny Bahrain, according to the Worldometer website. The United States has so far carried out 74 tests per 1 million inhabitants, data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show. … The government hopes to control new clusters in the same way it confronted the one in Shincheonji. The national testing capacity has reached a staggering 15,000 tests per day. There are 43 drive-through testing stations nationwide, a concept now copied in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. In the first week of March, the Ministry of the Interior also rolled out a smartphone app that can track the quarantined and collect data on symptoms. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2020, 3:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-south-korean-and-german-death-rate-is-quite-low-why-is-this-happening/849560/17 "2020-03-20T03:17:39Z")
Although [this _Science_ article](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/coronavirus-cases-have-dropped-sharply-south-korea-whats-secret-its-success) addresses it well. > [@](#): > > The country of 50 million appears to have greatly slowed its epidemic; it reported only 74 new cases today, down from 909 at its peak on 29 February. And it has done so without locking down entire cities or taking some of the other authoritarian measures that helped China bring its epidemic under control. “South Korea is a democratic republic, we feel a lockdown is not a reasonable choice,” says Kim Woo-Joo, an infectious disease specialist at Korea University. South Korea’s success may hold lessons for other countries—and also a warning: Even after driving case numbers down, the country is braced for a resurgence. > > Behind its success so far has been the most expansive and well-organized testing program in the world, combined with extensive efforts to isolate infected people and trace and quarantine their contacts. South Korea has tested more than 270,000 people, which amounts to more than 5200 tests per million inhabitants—more than any other country except tiny Bahrain, according to the Worldometer website. The United States has so far carried out 74 tests per 1 million inhabitants, data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show. … The government hopes to control new clusters in the same way it confronted the one in Shincheonji. The national testing capacity has reached a staggering 15,000 tests per day. There are 43 drive-through testing stations nationwide, a concept now copied in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. In the first week of March, the Ministry of the Interior also rolled out a smartphone app that can track the quarantined and collect data on symptoms. ---
**Author:** ![Monty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monty/32/47_2.png) [@Monty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monty)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2020, 5:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-south-korean-and-german-death-rate-is-quite-low-why-is-this-happening/849560/18 "2020-03-20T05:53:50Z")
Another thing for South Korea is that (a) it has a very good and modern health care system, (b) its national health insurance scheme is also very good, and © the general population there, along with the government, is taking this issue incredibly seriously.