# The Stimulus at one year: Is it working?

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-stimulus-at-one-year-is-it-working/529602>\
**Category:** Great Debates\
**Created:** [February 19, 2010, 6:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-stimulus-at-one-year-is-it-working/529602 "2010-02-19T06:53:09Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 1

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\
**Post date:** [February 19, 2010, 6:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-stimulus-at-one-year-is-it-working/529602/1 "2010-02-19T06:53:09Z")

</div>

It’s one year since the [American Recovery and Investment Act of 2009](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Recovery_and_Reinvestment_Act_of_2009) was passed. Is it working?

[The Bureau of Labor Statistics says yes:](http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/recoveryanniversary/)

> [@](#):
>
> One year in, the evidence is clear – and growing by the day – that the Recovery Act is working to cushion the greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression and lay a new foundation for economic growth.
> 
> - According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the Recovery Act is already responsible for as many as 2.4 million jobs through the end of 2009
> 
> - As a result, job losses are a fraction of what they were a year ago, before the Recovery Act began
> 
> The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act:
> 
> - Cut taxes for 95 percent of working families through the Making Work Pay tax credit
> 
> - Cut taxes for small businesses
> 
> - Provided loans to over 42,000 small businesses
> 
> - Funded over 12,500 transportation construction projects nationwide, ranging from highway construction to airport improvement projects
> 
> - Made multi-billion dollar investments in innovation, science and technology that are laying the foundation for our 21st century economy
> 
> - Provided critical relief for state governments facing record budget shortfalls, including help to prevent cuts to Medicaid and creating or saving over 300,000 education jobs
> 
> Economists on the left and the right have stated that the Recovery Act has helped avert an even worse economic disaster.

[Obama says it staved off a second Depression:](http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/Politics/stimulus-working-obama-administration-touts-recovery-act-job-creation/story?id=9861092)

> [@](#):
>
> “One year later, it is largely thanks to the recovery act that a second depression is no longer a possibility,” the president said on the one-year anniversary of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. “It’s laying out the foundation for where we need to go.”
> 
> Obama acknowledged that passing the $787 billion package “wasn’t a politically easy decision to make,” but he also criticized opponents of the plan, especially those who were taking aim at the bill even as “many of them showed up for ribbon-cutting ceremonies for projects in their districts.”

Nobel-Prize-winning economist [Joseph Stiglitz](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Stiglitz) gives it [a qualified yes:](http://www.democracynow.org/2010/2/18/nobel_economist_joseph_stiglitz_on_obamas)

> [@](#):
>
> Well, Joe Stiglitz, welcome to Democracy Now! Why don’t you start off by assessing this first anniversary of the stimulus?
> 
> JOSEPH STIGLITZ: Well, it has made a difference. I think President Obama is absolutely right that, were it not for the stimulus bill, unemployment would be higher, much higher, than it is today.
> 
> And we should be clear that the unemployment rate that we have today is unacceptable. Unemployment is almost ten percent. But more telling, more than one out of six Americans who would like a full-time job cannot get one now.
> 
> The problem with the stimulus was not that it didn’t work, but it wasn’t big enough, and it wasn’t as well designed as I would have—I would have liked. Two problems. What was needed was a stimulus of at least 50 percent larger. Even the President’s own economic adviser talked about the need for a $1.2 trillion bill. But unfortunately, President Obama wasn’t given that choice. Even before it was presented to him, it was downscaled to a choice between $600 and $800 billion, and he pushed for the larger number.
> 
> The second problem was that about a third of it is in tax cuts. And with Americans burdened with debt, with the uncertainties in the job market, much of that tax cut went into savings, not into spending. And the nature of a stimulus is you have to spend it. So while the money may have given them more security, may have provided individual benefits, it did not provide the stimulus that, for instance, directing money to help states maintain their universities, schools, teachers, would have done.
> 
> You know, the unusual situation we have today is there are a lot of youth unemployment, but the schools, the universities are being cut back so that they can’t use this time to build up their skills. Other countries have really tried to do it much better, tried to make sure that at least if you can’t get a job, you can get skills that increase your productivity.

Anyone think otherwise?

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\
**Post date:** [February 19, 2010, 7:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-stimulus-at-one-year-is-it-working/529602/2 "2010-02-19T07:58:19Z")

</div>

I’ve watched this thread for over an hour, and no responses yet. I’m eagerly awaiting the analysis of my fellow Dopers on this subject!

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![appleciders](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85f322/32.png) [@appleciders](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/appleciders)\
**Post date:** [February 19, 2010, 8:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-stimulus-at-one-year-is-it-working/529602/3 "2010-02-19T08:19:00Z")

</div>

Slate Magazine, an admittedly left-leaning publication, has been arguing that it’s a hell of a lot better than nothing, and that things are much better now that they were this time last year. Main points: 1st quarter 2010, the economy was on track to shrink 6%. 4th quarter, it grew about 2%. That’s still not healthy, but it’s a hell of a lot healthier. And the stimulus money is less than half spent; we’re still spending and moving forward with that same $787 billion we passed in the first place.

So it’s too soon to be sure, but it looks good and I remain quite hopeful that it’ll prove successful.

> **[Don't listen to those Republicans. The stimulus has been a big success.](https://slate.com/business/2010/02/don-t-listen-to-those-republicans-the-stimulus-has-been-a-big-success.html)**
>
> The stimulus package turns one today. Happy birthday!

> **[Conservatives claim the stimulus has already failed. But it has barely started.](https://slate.com/business/2009/10/conservatives-claim-the-stimulus-has-already-failed-but-it-has-barely-started.html)**
>
> From the moment it passed, the $787 billion American Recovery and Reinvestment Act —the stimulus bill—has been the subject of controversy. Many...

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\
**Post date:** [February 19, 2010, 12:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-stimulus-at-one-year-is-it-working/529602/4 "2010-02-19T12:21:45Z")

</div>

One hopes. But I note the OP, while very long, provides only two points that actually serve as evidence the bill WORKED:

- According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the Recovery Act is already responsible for as many as 2.4 million jobs through the end of 2009

- As a result, job losses are a fraction of what they were a year ago, before the Recovery Act began

To say the stimulus bill worked you would have to assume not that these things happened (which they did, of course) but that _they’re better than would have been the case had no stimulus bill been passed._ After all, recessions do have a way of ending. The fact that the U.S. economy is losing jobs slower than it did 12 months ago proves very little. What would have happened without this stimulus bill? And was in, in fact, correctly done - would a different bill have done better?

To guess if the recession is wrapping up faster than would have been the case without the stimulus bill would require a pretty huge pile of economic analysis, which is not what we’re likely to get here.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\
**Post date:** [February 19, 2010, 2:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-stimulus-at-one-year-is-it-working/529602/5 "2010-02-19T14:09:10Z")

</div>

> [@BrainGlutton](#):
>
> It’s one year since the [American Recovery and Investment Act of 2009](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Recovery_and_Reinvestment_Act_of_2009) was passed. Is it working?
> 
> [The Bureau of Labor Statistics says yes:](http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/recoveryanniversary/)

Your cite is not from the Bureau of Labor Statistics; it is from my.barackobama dot com. If you are claiming to give an objective cite, it might be best not to give a partisan one and misattribute it.

That having been said, your cite makes the following claim -

> [@](#):
>
> The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act:
> 
> - Cut taxes for 95 percent of working families through the Making Work Pay tax credit
> 
> - Cut taxes for small businesses

I’ve seen it argued that tax cuts do not work in stimulating the economy. Barack Obama says they have. Is he wrong?

Regards,  
Shodan

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\
**Post date:** [February 19, 2010, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-stimulus-at-one-year-is-it-working/529602/6 "2010-02-19T14:20:50Z")

</div>

> [@RickJay](#):
>
> To guess if the recession is wrapping up faster than would have been the case without the stimulus bill would require a pretty huge pile of economic analysis, which is not what we’re likely to get here.

[shrug] It’s all good. One way or another, I’m sure we can expect to get a pretty huge pile of **something** here! 🙂

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\
**Post date:** [February 19, 2010, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-stimulus-at-one-year-is-it-working/529602/7 "2010-02-19T14:36:47Z")

</div>

> [@Shodan](#):
>
> Your cite is not from the Bureau of Labor Statistics; it is from my.barackobama dot com. If you are claiming to give an objective cite, it might be best not to give a partisan one and misattribute it.
> 
> That having been said, your cite makes the following claim -  
> I’ve seen it argued that tax cuts do not work in stimulating the economy. Barack Obama says they have. Is he wrong?
> 
> Regards,  
> Shodan

I think the consensus is that they work but not as much as other uses for the money (like building infrastructure).

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Ruminator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/b9bd4f/32.png) [@Ruminator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ruminator)\
**Post date:** [February 19, 2010, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-stimulus-at-one-year-is-it-working/529602/8 "2010-02-19T14:53:46Z")

</div>

> [@BrainGlutton](#):
>
> Anyone think otherwise?

Joseph Stiglitz and other economists with similar Keynesian ideologies like Paul Kruger focus on employment and demand. Looking through this lens, they like stimulus spending.

Other economists focus on production and innovation of which employment is a positive natural side effect. If you look at it this way (which I believe is correct), the stimulus bill was a waste of money that provides the temporary illusion of prosperity at the expense of debt (and a lower standard-of-living in the years to come.)

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Cort](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/77aa72/32.png) [@Cort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cort)\
**Post date:** [February 19, 2010, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-stimulus-at-one-year-is-it-working/529602/9 "2010-02-19T14:53:55Z")

</div>

> [@Shodan](#):
>
> I’ve seen it argued that tax cuts do not work in stimulating the economy. Barack Obama says they have. Is he wrong?

I think they also work better when they’re doled out in smaller increments. That way people have less incentive to save the money and it goes right back into the economy.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\
**Post date:** [February 19, 2010, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-stimulus-at-one-year-is-it-working/529602/10 "2010-02-19T15:15:14Z")

</div>

> [@Shodan](#):
>
> That having been said, your cite makes the following claim - I’ve seen it argued that tax cuts do not work in stimulating the economy. Barack Obama says they have. Is he wrong?

I believe the claim is that giving the middle and lower classes a tax cut is a pretty good thing anyway. But as to the old conservative saw about cutting taxes being a great way to spur growth, make people happy, and give everyone fresh breath, here’s what CBO has said:

> [@](#):
>
> The largest effects on employment this year and next would probably arise from increasing aid to the unemployed, reducing employers’ payroll taxes in general, and reducing employers’ payroll taxes for firms that increase their payroll. Somewhat smaller effects would probably be produced by reducing employees’ payroll taxes, providing an additional one-time Social Security payment, allowing full or partial expensing of investment costs, investing in infrastructure, providing aid to states for purposes other than infrastructure, and providing additional refundable tax credits for lower- and middle-income households in 2011. Still smaller effects would probably be generated by extending higher exemption amounts for the AMT in 2010 or reducing income taxes in 2011.

For ease of reading, here are the policies that would probably increase employment the most in the short term, from most to least effective:

1. More aid for the unemployed
2. Cut payroll taxes for businesses that are hiring
3. Reduce employees’ payroll taxes
4. Increase Social Security payment
5. Subsidize investment spending
6. Invest in infrastructure
7. More aid to states
8. Tax credits for the poor and middle class
9. Reduce impact of AMT
10. Cut income taxes more

Wow, the Congressional Budget Office says that cutting income taxes isn’t very effective in creating jobs. We liberals are shocked. Shocked, I say.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\
**Post date:** [February 19, 2010, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-stimulus-at-one-year-is-it-working/529602/11 "2010-02-19T15:19:24Z")

</div>

> [@Ruminator](#):
>
> Joseph Stiglitz and other economists with similar Keynesian ideologies like Paul Kruger . . .

Nitpick: I think you mean [Paul Krugman.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Krugman)[Paul Kruger](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Kruger) was not an economist.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Ruminator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/b9bd4f/32.png) [@Ruminator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ruminator)\
**Post date:** [February 19, 2010, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-stimulus-at-one-year-is-it-working/529602/12 "2010-02-19T15:22:26Z")

</div>

> [@BrainGlutton](#):
>
> Nitpick: I think you mean [Paul Krugman.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Krugman)[Paul Kruger](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Kruger) was not an economist.

Correct. I have several of Paul Krugman’s books so don’t know why I wrote of Kruger. Maybe there’s an Olympic athlete named Kruger.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![kingbighair](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/13edae/32.png) [@kingbighair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kingbighair)\
**Post date:** [February 19, 2010, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-stimulus-at-one-year-is-it-working/529602/13 "2010-02-19T15:27:39Z")

</div>

I’ve heard arguments saying, in effect, of course the GDP would go up if the government puts almost $800 billion into the economy. So I looked up how much money the government has actually put into the economy so far through the Recovery Act. [Revovery.gov](http://www.recovery.gov/pages/textview.aspx?data=recipientHomeMap) indicates about $57 billion has been sent out. That is way less than I expected. Since some recipients might spend the money before they actually receive it, we can use the high extreme of total funds awarded, or $197 billion. (Anyone have a better cite for total amount spent?)

In real dollars, the [GDP](http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm) increased $91 billion in the 3rd quarter and $221 billion in the 4th quarter.

[This](http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdp_glance.htm) graph shows quarter to quarter GDP growth trending down from 1st quarter 2008 to 2nd quarter 2009, and going up coinciding with the stimulus package. Post hoc aside, it appears the economy grew more than the amount spent through the Recovery Act. After a year of negative growth, I’m tentatively convinced that the stimulus package achieved positive results if GDP is an accurate metric. I feel this way because consumer confidence is so vital to the economy. A growing GDP spurs confidence, which I think outweighs future debt concerns (I do not mean all debt concerns; I am only talking about the ramifications of this particular stimulus spending). Consumer confidence was at an all time low (since 1967) in February 09 at [25](http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/24/news/economy/consumer_confidence/). It is now at [56](http://www.conference-board.org/economics/ConsumerConfidence.cfm). While it is foolish to confidently proclaim success for such a large program this early, it appears to be working.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\
**Post date:** [February 19, 2010, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-stimulus-at-one-year-is-it-working/529602/14 "2010-02-19T15:53:26Z")

</div>

The problem with this thread and the question it poses is determining exactly how things would have gone without the stimulus. The assumption seems to be that without the stimulus we would have had more job loss and the economy would have been in worse shape, but that’s all guess work since no one knows…it’s all projections and models. But the projections and models that were used to get the stimulus passed weren’t correct either, since they projected a much rosier picture than what we have actually gotten, especially wrt new jobs created and job loss.

To me this is like the guy who takes zinc to get rid of his cold. Since he has taken his zinc faithfully, his cold now only lasts 7 days, but had he not taken it, it could have gone as long as a week!

Maybe some economist 'dopers will come in and show some models or projections on what might have happened without a stimulus or with a differently focused stimulus, but it will still only be a projection. We’ll never know. I’m inclined to think there is at least some level of trying to spin things to look as good as possible given the current circumstances and the fact that we DID do the stimulus when and how we did it. But then, I’m no economist, nor do I play one on the SD, so this is just my laymans take on what is a very complex subject.

-XT

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\
**Post date:** [February 19, 2010, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-stimulus-at-one-year-is-it-working/529602/15 "2010-02-19T16:32:47Z")

</div>

> [@Ravenman](#):
>
> I believe the claim is that giving the middle and lower classes a tax cut is a pretty good thing anyway. But as to the old conservative saw about cutting taxes being a great way to spur growth, make people happy, and give everyone fresh breath, here’s what CBO has said:

We aren’t talking about conservative claims here; we are talking about Obams’s claim that his stimulus package ended the recession, or saved jobs, or whatever he wants to claim.

As far as I can tell, you and the CBO agree that the portion of the stimulus dedicated to tax cuts - [about $300 billion of the total](http://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:xeriJYQu_AIJ:www.ctj.org/pdf/obamastimulus.pdf+obama+stimulus+tax+cuts&hl=en&gl=us&sig=AHIEtbTXC7r7uL4rbJ06qtLBPJZCEvRLtA) - did not do this, or at least did not do as much as payroll tax cuts and unemployment benefits would do.

IOW, it appears we are in agreement - much of the stimulus was a waste, or nearly so. Unfortunately, now it has to be paid back with interest. Discussion of the stimulus should, to be fair, include discussion of the long-range effects of the huge increase in deficits under the Obama administration.

Regards,  
Shodan

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Dick\_Dastardly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c4cdca/32.png) [@Dick\_Dastardly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dick_Dastardly)\
**Post date:** [February 19, 2010, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-stimulus-at-one-year-is-it-working/529602/16 "2010-02-19T16:43:44Z")

</div>

Imagine if, one year ago, Congress had passed a stimulus bill that really worked.  
Let’s say this bill had started spending money within a matter of weeks and had rapidly helped the economy. Let’s also imagine it was large enough to have had a huge impact on jobs — employing something like two million people who would otherwise be unemployed right now.  
If that had happened, what would the economy look like today?  
Well, it would look almost exactly as it does now. Because those nice descriptions of the stimulus that I just gave aren’t hypothetical. They are descriptions of the actual bill.  
Just look at the outside evaluations of the stimulus. Perhaps the best-known economic research firms are IHS Global Insight, Macroeconomic Advisers and [Moody’s](http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/business/companies/moodys_corporation/index.html?inline=nyt-org) [Economy.com](http://economy.com/). They all estimate that the bill has added 1.6 million to 1.8 million jobs so far and that its ultimate impact will be roughly 2.5 million jobs. The [Congressional Budget Office](http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/c/congressional_budget_office/index.html?inline=nyt-org), an independent agency, considers these estimates to be conservative.

[http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/17/business/economy/17leonhardt.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss](http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/17/business/economy/17leonhardt.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss)

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\
**Post date:** [February 19, 2010, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-stimulus-at-one-year-is-it-working/529602/17 "2010-02-19T16:52:09Z")

</div>

> [@Shodan](#):
>
> Discussion of the stimulus should, to be fair, include discussion of the long-range effects of the huge increase in deficits under the Obama administration.

“To be fair”, where the fuck were you the last 10 years?

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\
**Post date:** [February 19, 2010, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-stimulus-at-one-year-is-it-working/529602/18 "2010-02-19T16:56:09Z")

</div>

> [@Shodan](#):
>
> Discussion of the stimulus should, to be fair, include discussion of the long-range effects of the huge increase in deficits under the Obama administration.

Good point. And if we ever talk about the best way to put out a house that’s on fire with children stuck inside, we should include a lengthy discussion on the dangers of water damage, including how it destroys driwall, encourages rotting, and can even cause black mold that has been linked to diseases.

And let’s be clear: with the exception of Making Work Pay tax credit (which costs $29 billion this year), other tax reform initiatives like the AMT fix (which cost $80 billion this year, and is single handedly responsible for half of the cost of all the tax cuts in 2010) were included to attempt to gain political support from Republicans. [Cite.](http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/108xx/doc10871/AppendixA.shtml) Perhaps we are in agreement – in hindsight, Obama should have ignored the worthless advice of economic conservatives and focused on more job-creating measures.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![kingbighair](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/13edae/32.png) [@kingbighair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kingbighair)\
**Post date:** [February 19, 2010, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-stimulus-at-one-year-is-it-working/529602/19 "2010-02-19T16:56:36Z")

</div>

> [@Shodan](#):
>
> …
> 
> IOW, it appears we are in agreement - much of the stimulus was a waste, or nearly so. Unfortunately, now it has to be paid back with interest. Discussion of the stimulus should, to be fair, include discussion of the long-range effects of the huge increase in deficits under the Obama administration.
> 
> Regards,  
> Shodan

Please support your claim that the stimulus was a waste. Are you claiming the economy would have grown 2.6% and 6.4% in the 3rd and 4th quarters, respectively, if there were no Recovery Act? Or that it would have grown but at a smaller, yet still encouraging rate? Or are you claiming the long-term debt is too burdensome for the purported short-term benefits?

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Dick\_Dastardly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c4cdca/32.png) [@Dick\_Dastardly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dick_Dastardly)\
**Post date:** [February 19, 2010, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-stimulus-at-one-year-is-it-working/529602/20 "2010-02-19T17:11:29Z")

</div>

> [@Shodan](#):
>
> Discussion of the stimulus should, to be fair, include discussion of the long-range effects of the huge increase in deficits under the Obama administration.

And to be really fair we should look at the causes of those deficits according to the CBO :

[![](https://farm3.static.flickr.com/2707/4191155977_7c1dd28e67_o.jpg) ](https://farm3.static.flickr.com/2707/4191155977_7c1dd28e67_o.jpg)

[Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-stimulus-at-one-year-is-it-working/529602.md?page=2)
