Umm, excuse me? What good looks?
There was never going to be a chance for Lonnegan to collect on any bet, the “Feds” were always going to bust in before that. The place vs. win part was to get Lonnegan agitated right before the raid (and also to fool the audience into thinking that simply have Lonnegan lose a big bet was the whole scam). Lonnegan had to believe that Hooker and Gondorff were dead so he wouldn’t follow up.
The place vs. win part was absolutely planned and scripted by the crew. This comes straight out of The Big Con, published in 1940, the book on which The Sting is based.
The book contains far more information about confidence games than just the one in The Sting. There is, however, a lengthy chapter on “The Wire” that describes the setup used in The Sting.
One reviewer of The Big Con references the “Lucky Dan” tactic:
The big cons are complex stories, ones in which the mark is introduced to an opportunity to participate in a semi-legal scheme (a fixed horse-race, insider stock trading) that requires a certain amount of intelligence to grasp. The mark is given “convincers” (substantial payoffs that are later recouped in the big score), and is gradually led to a point where he is willing return home (the “send”) and empty his bank account, liquidate his assets, and return, with the promise of taking off enough winnings to support him in style for the rest of his life. This is done so skillfully, so subtly, that the mark never suspects that he is being taken. When he finally coughs up the entire sum, it is “lost” through a piece of miscommunication (“I told you to bet on that horse to place, not to win! We’re broke!”) that is again done so skillfully that the mark never suspects that he has been taken. Indeed, a mark will often go home, borrow all he can and return – only to lose it again.
This quote makes it sound like the “Lucky Dan” trick was actually intended to be a con in its own right, but they included it as a side con in The Sting because they felt it would add interest to the story.
Some marks need to be cooled out— Lonnegan was not going to go, oops, oh well, shame about the half a bar, and come back with more money. The bit with the fake Feds and fake murders was to ensure that even a hothead like him would not follow up. It is a tactic also described in the book, I believe.
Besides, it wouldn’t have been nearly as fun a movie without the fake bust!
Was there a contingency plan if the mark figured out the “place it on…” thing? What happens if the guy comes in, and bets a half-million on Lucky Dan to place?
The Sting had multiple cons going on at the same time; the one the audience knows about, and at least one that we don’t. It takes a bit of time and effort to untangle everything.
That’s the joke. They were dumb, so they thought she was good looking.
That type of casting could only have happened during the 1970s.