The tea party movement is likely to become legitimate.

[Stoneburg]

@Really_Not_All_That_Bright

It can’t happen here. US elections are not publicly funded, and they are bought and paid for - on both sides - by corporate interests. Said interests have absolutely no desire to make things less predictable by introducing a third party to the mix, and thereby being forced to split their campaign spending three ways.

That’s a good argument and makes the issue more interesting.

Is it impossible due to the political/economical structure for a third party to be formed?

If so, what are the democratic implications?

[furt]

@Wesley_Clark

The Tea Party is heavily made up of elderly people who collect social security and medicare.

The NYT says otherwise. Pg. 41 – only 29% are over 65.

Another is that they are already just a branch of the GOP. Something like 80-90% are republicans or republican leaning independents.

NYT says otherwise. Pg. 40 Republicans 54%, Independant 36% … but only 66% say they always or usually vote Republican (p. 35), and fully 43% regard the GOP unfavorably (pg. 17). Majorities support legal recognition of gay couples and keeping abortion legal.

The idea that these are the hard-core right is at odds with the facts.

[Bryan_Ekers]

Is what’s happening now as divisive as integration was in the 1940s? That was the impetus needed for the Dixiecrats, and even they couldn’t form a viable third party. The effect of their short-term success was for the Republicans to absorb their ideas (i.e. “Southern Strategy”) and some of their members, while others returned to the Democrats.

I figure this’ll happen here - the instant the tea-partiers win something, the Republicans will just adjust their platform to assimilate the ideas, as they have now been proven successful. The smarter tea-partiers will rejoin the now-adjusted Republican mainstream and the nutcases will be consigned back to the wilderness.

The long term effect, maybe, is that the Republicans become less focussed and less able to marshall unity and become less effective in congress. In other words, they start acting like Democrats.

[Fear_Itself]

@furt

… 66% say they always or usually vote Republican…

The idea that these are the hard-core right is at odds with the facts.

So which is it?

[Lemur866]

@Stoneburg

It hasn’t happened, so it can’t happen.
Come on… you’re not even trying!

The last third party to suceed in America was the Republican party, and that happened in 1860. That was 150 years ago.

What happens in America is that political parties have no set ideology or membership. The parties have no power to choose who runs, so every election is local. If you win the primary, then you’re the party candidate. The Republican party that was founded 150 years ago was a Northern, Liberal, pro-Industry, urban, anti-slavery party. The Republican party today is ideologically nearly 100% opposite.

The way representatives are elected means that third parties have almost no influence, and no prospects for influence. Under our system coming in second means you get nothing, so coming in third means you get less than nothing.

And this means that if you’re entering a career in politics you don’t join the party that best represents your views, you pick whichever of the major parties you can live with, and you stick with them. And it doesn’t matter what your actual ideology is, you’re a Democrat or a Republican because you say you are. Nobody with any sense joins a third party, which means the third parties are the home of cranks and kooks and quacks, which means that no one with any sense joins a third party. Self-reinforcing cycle.

[Damuri_Ajashi]

@Der_Trihs

Of course, if they ejected the crazies, who’d be left? And given their incoherence, I can’t see them agreeing on a platform.

Well, you’d be left with Hatter, March Hare and Doormouse.

[Damuri_Ajashi]

@cosmosdan

If you’re worried about alienating the racists by doing that then you got a big problem and there’s a lot of people you will never attract.

I think this is indeed a problem for the teabaggers.

Its the problem the Republicans have had for years. When they have the majority, it has often been so slim that losing the racists will mean losing control of government so they tolerate the racists in order to advance a broader agenda.

[Damuri_Ajashi]

@Really_Not_All_That_Bright

It can’t happen here. US elections are not publicly funded, and they are bought and paid for - on both sides - by corporate interests. Said interests have absolutely no desire to make things less predictable by introducing a third party to the mix, and thereby being forced to split their campaign spending three ways.

After seeing what happened to the libdem party in the UK, I think any party that can get on the ballot in all 50 states should be given a seat at any televised debates. CSPAN should host them if noone else will do it.

[Kobal2]

@furt

The NYT says otherwise. Pg. 41 – only 29% are over 65.

I do believe 1/3 closes in on “heavily made-up”. Unless of course one in three Americans in over 65, in which case it’s just a cross-segment of the population. Somehow, I doubt that.

[Really_Not_All_That_Bright]

@Damuri_Ajashi

After seeing what happened to the libdem party in the UK, I think any party that can get on the ballot in all 50 states should be given a seat at any televised debates. CSPAN should host them if noone else will do it.

Oh, I certainly think we should have more parties. We just won’t.

@Kobal2

I do believe 1/3 closes in on “heavily made-up”. Unless of course one in three Americans in over 65, in which case it’s just a cross-segment of the population. Somehow, I doubt that.

Between 30 and 40 million Americans are 65 or older (the number is steadily increasing) or between 10 and 13% of the population. 24% of the population is under 18, so 65+ Americans are about 16% of the adult population.

[Jophiel]

@athelas

No, I doubt that the Tea Party will become a separate political party. Most likely, it will become unofficially affiliated with the Republican thinking and strongly influence Republican thinking, just as various left-wing movements influenced the Democrats in the '60s and '70s.

Michelle Bachmann asked for, and was granted, permission to form a Tea Party Caucus in the House.

A House committee said Monday it approved the creation of an official Tea Party Caucus, headed by Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.)

The Minnesota lawmaker, who is a favorite of the conservative activist movement, wrote House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) last Thursday, asking permission to create the group.

Bachmann tweeted on Monday: “Just got word that the Committee on House Administration officially approved the House Tea Party Caucus.” Kyle Anderson, a spokesman for the panel, confirmed that it approved the creation of the group.

With an official congressional caucus group headed by a Republican (and likely to be filled with all Republicans), I find it hard to imagine the Tea Party ever being more than an ideological wing of the GOP.

[cosmosdan]

@Jophiel

Michelle Bachmann asked for, and was granted, permission to form a Tea Party Caucus in the House.
With an official congressional caucus group headed by a Republican (and likely to be filled with all Republicans), I find it hard to imagine the Tea Party ever being more than an ideological wing of the GOP.

Yeah, Bachman as the head of the Caucus. That automatically gives them big points on credibility.

[furt]

@Fear_Itself

So which is it?

There is no contradiction there. Obviously the TP people lean right. But there is a large difference between noting that a group leans one way (e.g. 66%), and drawing the conclusion that they are ideologically extremists in that direction.

By way of example, I’d bet that 66% of trade union members are democrats; it does not follow that union members as a whole are a far-left group. Similarly, African-Americans are 80-90% democratic; and yet on many issues they break away from the far left (e.g., gay rights).

Similarly, the data seems to suggest that the TP 1) generally vote republican, but 2) are not-down-the-line conservatives.

[furt]

@Kobal2

I do believe 1/3 closes in on “heavily made-up”. Unless of course one in three Americans in over 65, in which case it’s just a cross-segment of the population. Somehow, I doubt that.

About 13% nationally. Given the poll was taken among people who had the time to go to a rally, I don’t think it’s an overwhelming disparity.

[Pleonast]

@Lemur866

The Republican party that was founded 150 years ago was a Northern, Liberal, pro-Industry, urban, anti-slavery party. The Republican party today is ideologically nearly 100% opposite.

To be fair, the Republican party is still liberal in the sense of the word used when they were founded. We use “liberal” differently now.

[Stoneburg]

It’s a bit weirs that 5% voted for Obama and 6% thinks he shares their values… I bet those guys stick out at the parties.

[Really_Not_All_That_Bright]

@furt

There is no contradiction there. Obviously the TP people lean right. But there is a large difference between noting that a group leans one way (e.g. 66%), and drawing the conclusion that they are ideologically extremists in that direction.

More likely, it points to a basic confusion as to what the term “independent” means. Analyses of Tea Party membership have assumed it to mean “moderate”, but we can see from the remainder of the poll that Tea Party members are anything but.

Look here:

How would you describe your views on most political matters? Generally do you think of yourself as liberal, moderate, or conservative? IF LIBERAL, ASK: Would you say you are very liberal or only somewhat liberal? IF CONSERVATIVE, ASK: Would you say you are very conservative or only somewhat conservative?

Very liberal
2/5-10/10 6
4/5-12/10 4
4/5-12/10 TP 0

Somewhat liberal
16
16
4

Somewhat conservative
22
22
34

Very conservative
**13 **
12
39

So, Republican or not, the independents we’re talking about sure as hell aren’t the swing voter type. It’s a coalition of Republicans and the freakin’ Klan.

[Fear_Itself]

@furt

Similarly, the data seems to suggest that the TP 1) generally vote republican, but 2) are not-down-the-line conservatives.

75% self identify as conservative. I don’t know if that differs from “down the line conservative”, but they mostly do not identify with moderates or liberals. Here are some other indications of how extreme they are:

Seventy-seven percent describe Mr. Obama as “very liberal,” compared to 31 percent of Americans overall. Fifty-six percent say the president’s policies favor the poor, compared to 27 percent of Americans overall.

Sixty-four percent believe that the president has increased taxes for most Americans, despite the fact that the vast majority of Americans got a tax cut under the Obama administration. Thirty-four percent of the general public says the president has raised taxes on most Americans.

Twenty-four percent of Tea Party supporters say it is sometimes justified to take violent action against the government. That compares to 16 percent of Americans overall who say violence against the government is sometimes justified.

Sixty-three percent say they get the majority of their political and current events news on television from the Fox News Channel, compared to 23 percent of Americans overall.

Tea Party supporters were asked in the poll what they thought of a few notable figures. The most popular was Sarah Palin, who is viewed favorably by 66 percent of people in the movement. … Just 35 percent view John McCain favorably

Fifty-two percent believe too much has been made of the problems facing black people.

If they are not hard line conservatives, they sure quack like them.

[furt]

@Really_Not_All_That_Bright

More likely, it points to a basic confusion as to what the term “independent” means. Analyses of Tea Party membership have assumed it to mean “moderate”, but we can see from the remainder of the poll that Tea Party members are anything but.

Look here:

So, Republican or not, the independents we’re talking about sure as hell aren’t the swing voter type. It’s a coalition of Republicans and the freakin’ Klan.

“Very conservative” in your mind equates to the Klan. :dubious: Reveals a bit about you, it does.

[Really_Not_All_That_Bright]

That is hyperbole. The point is that we’re not looking at (Tea Party) = (Republicans + moderates); we’re looking at (Republicans + People Too Conservative For Republican Party).

Of course, the latter group might include the Klan.