# The Trump Administration: A Clusterfuck in the Making Part Deux (Part 1) **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [June 22, 2020, 3:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-administration-a-clusterfuck-in-the-making-part-deux-part-1/911083 "2020-06-22T03:36:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 1\ **Showing post:** 2497
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2020, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-administration-a-clusterfuck-in-the-making-part-deux-part-1/911083/2497 "2020-08-18T17:12:43Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > Nope, there are indeed a lot of maskholes and people that do not want to have quarantines, but even in Arizona masks and social distancing and closure of big events or crowd gatherings is in effect. Sage: Teenagers are stupid. GIGO: Civil libertarians are only in Arizona. I agree, civil libertarians are, probably, an insignificant factor. …Why are we talking about them? I’m pretty sure that they weren’t mentioned by me and that I was pretty specific about who I was talking about. > [@GIGObuster](#): > > The point here is that you were wrong on the modelings not having been done before > [@GIGObuster](#): > > Actually, most economists reported early that following your alternative would be worse. (Someone did calculate and others made models too) > > [https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/modelers-weigh-value-lives-and-lockdown-costs-put-price-covid-19](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/modelers-weigh-value-lives-and-lockdown-costs-put-price-covid-19) As of yet, I have only seen any indications that lockdown is better than no lockdown. I came to the same result with some simple math, here, several months ago: > [@Why sacrificing Grandma by opening up again might not save the economy](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-sacrificing-grandma-by-opening-up-again-might-not-save-the-economy/851011/3): > > Let’s assume the following: The average person can generate about $2500 worth of value per month, if employed. There is a linear scale of social distancing (e.g., cutting off airplanes, cutting off events, shelter-at-home, forced complete quarantine for all, etc.) which causes 5% unemployment if we do nothing (0) and 15% employment at the top end (10). The fatality rate for people under 55 is 0.15% and 5% for those 55 and older. This is, assuming that hospitals are able to adequately care for … I have not changed my view - and that’s largely because the math hasn’t changed. As for a model that covers option B, as opposed to the differences between the Control case and option A, depending on the numbers, I can get between double or half the fatality count versus option A: > **[The easiest way to host your text](https://controlc.com/99f40d74)** > > The ControlC pastebin is the original next generation tool for sharing text. We offer a full suite of tools and a affiliate program for users to make money. Formerly known as Pasted and Tinypaste With the current set of numbers, we have: Control - Sick (ever): 282k - Immune (ever): 84k - Deaths: 11k Quarantine-light - Sick (ever): 29k - Immune (ever): 2k - Deaths: 930 Risk-targeting - Sick (ever): 183k - Immune (ever): 64k - Deaths: 926 Actual results will vary by run and how strict you are with Grandma. What isn’t included are things like how much sunlight Grandma is getting nor how the economy is doing. --- _[View the full topic](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-administration-a-clusterfuck-in-the-making-part-deux-part-1/911083)._