# The Trump Impeachment Inquiry **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 24, 2019, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-impeachment-inquiry/840771 "2019-09-24T20:23:47Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 268
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2019, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-impeachment-inquiry/840771/5341 "2019-11-21T19:30:58Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > As I mentioned above, he needs to switch to decaf. I’m inclined to believe that caffeine is probably not the principal ingredient that you’d find in his bloodstream, if you ran a comprehensive drug test on him. ---
**Author:** ![Airbeck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/airbeck/32/6574_2.png) [@Airbeck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airbeck)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2019, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-impeachment-inquiry/840771/5342 "2019-11-21T19:46:53Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > I’m inclined to believe that caffeine is probably not the principal ingredient that you’d find in his bloodstream, if you ran a comprehensive drug test on him. Impotent rage with a dash of locker room shower runoff? ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2019, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-impeachment-inquiry/840771/5343 "2019-11-21T19:52:25Z")
The support for impeaching Trump just nosedived, by the way: > **[Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump?](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/impeachment-polls/)** > > FiveThirtyEight is tracking polls that ask whether respondents support impeaching President Trump. It’s been on a general decline for a while now. As said, the general public has an average of two weeks of memory and passion. One you’re past that, you’re pardoned and in the clear again. Welcome to the modern age of real-time polling. Minus the ability to power through an investigation, bypassing all legal requirements of due process, appeals, etc. any investigation will become background noise and any politician who is willing to look at the numbers rather than the headlines is immune to everything except the Feds. Trump is also immune to the Feds. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2019, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-impeachment-inquiry/840771/5344 "2019-11-21T19:59:14Z")
> [@Airbeck](#): > > Impotent rage with a dash of locker room shower runoff? I was thinking more like cocaine or amphetamines. ---
**Author:** ![Airbeck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/airbeck/32/6574_2.png) [@Airbeck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airbeck)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2019, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-impeachment-inquiry/840771/5345 "2019-11-21T20:06:19Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > I was thinking more like cocaine or amphetamines. Yeah. I was trying to be funny. Trying anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Skypist](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skypist/32/169_2.png) [@Skypist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skypist)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2019, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-impeachment-inquiry/840771/5346 "2019-11-21T20:09:45Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > The support for impeaching Trump just nosedived, by the way: > > [Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump? | FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/impeachment-polls/) > > It’s been on a general decline for a while now. Well, that’s depressing. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2019, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-impeachment-inquiry/840771/5347 "2019-11-21T20:12:54Z")
It didn’t “nosedive” – there was a single poll, maybe an outlier, that made the average lower by a point or two. ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2019, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-impeachment-inquiry/840771/5348 "2019-11-21T20:14:21Z")
And [the results from at least one poll](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/70-americans-trumps-actions-tied-ukraine-wrong-poll/story?id=67088534) are missing. ---
**Author:** ![74westy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/74westy/32/3950_2.png) [@74westy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/74westy)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2019, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-impeachment-inquiry/840771/5349 "2019-11-21T20:16:20Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > The support for impeaching Trump just nosedived, by the way: > > [Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump? | FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/impeachment-polls/) > > It’s been on a general decline for a while now. > > As said, the general public has an average of two weeks of memory and passion. One you’re past that, you’re pardoned and in the clear again. > > Welcome to the modern age of real-time polling. > > Minus the ability to power through an investigation, bypassing all legal requirements of due process, appeals, etc. any investigation will become background noise and any politician who is willing to look at the numbers rather than the headlines is immune to everything except the Feds. > > Trump is also immune to the Feds. When were the people polled? Were any of the polls conducted this week? ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2019, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-impeachment-inquiry/840771/5350 "2019-11-21T20:17:19Z")
I’ll state for the record that I’ve found the hearings to be compelling, but I think there are a number of us here who have suspected that what we, the members of SDMB, see, and the average 'Merikun sees are probably two different things. The polls are increasingly showing that this might be the case: [https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/471542-poll-finds-sharp-swing-in-opposition-to-impeachment-among-independents](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/471542-poll-finds-sharp-swing-in-opposition-to-impeachment-among-independents) > [@](#): > > The latest national poll from Emerson University finds 45 percent oppose impeaching President Trump, against 43 percent who support it. That’s a 6-point swing in support from October, when 48 percent of voters supported impeachment and only 44 percent opposed. > > More importantly, the poll shows more independents now oppose impeachment than support it, a significant change from Emerson’s polling in October. The new poll found 49 percent oppose impeachment compared to 34 percent who support it. In October, 48 percent of independents supported impeachment, against 39 percent who opposed. I don’t necessarily think Trump is really that popular with independents, but by going on offense, the Democrats have made themselves look like the partisans. Again, not saying that’s how I see it, but I think it’s a reasonable inference to make based on the testimony and the polling data. I’ve also suspected that there’s a simmering distrust and resentment among white working class independents of highly educated civil servants with degrees from Georgetown, Harvard, and Yale. It’s that age-old “You think yer better 'n me?!” factor at work. It matters little or none what they actually say; the testimony doesn’t seem to be sticking to Trump. Instead, when they see the spectacle play out on TV, it just reminds the average person how disconnected they are from the process. I don’t think the Democrats are going to get much mileage out of impeachment. The most important witness will be the economy in 2020. That’s it. That’s how we judge presidents now. They can be as corrupt as they want. They can enrich themselves as much as they want. They can sell out vital national interests as much as they want. They can bankrupt social security and medicare. Nobody in this God damned country will know the difference. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2019, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-impeachment-inquiry/840771/5351 "2019-11-21T20:30:53Z")
Sadly, I’m pretty sure you’re right, asahi. Well put. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2019, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-impeachment-inquiry/840771/5352 "2019-11-21T20:32:07Z")
> [@Skypist](#): > > Well, that’s depressing. I looked at that. I think what may be happening is that now that the impeachment has actually started, the pollsters are starting to ask the question “should Trump be impeached and removed” more than asking just “Should there be impeachment hearings.” If you click the buttons to separate those questions, the graphs look like they have been fairly stable since the Ukraine story broke. So my only conclusion is that the mixture of the two must have altered. ---
**Author:** ![Fretful\_Porpentine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fretful_porpentine/32/2873_2.png) [@Fretful\_Porpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fretful_Porpentine)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2019, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-impeachment-inquiry/840771/5353 "2019-11-21T20:33:16Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > It didn’t “nosedive” – there was a single poll, maybe an outlier, that made the average lower by a point or two. Yes, it looks like it’s all down to the most recent Emerson College poll, and the numbers on that one are just bizarre – it has 22% of REPUBLICANS supporting impeachment, offset by 19% of Democrats supposedly opposing it and only 69% supporting. None of the other polls has numbers that look remotely like that (most of them have Republican support around 10% and Democratic support in the general neighborhood of 80%), so I think this one is just an outlier. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2019, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-impeachment-inquiry/840771/5354 "2019-11-21T20:33:51Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > The support for impeaching Trump just nosedived, by the way: > > [Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump? | FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/impeachment-polls/) > > It’s been on a general decline for a while now. > [@Skypist](#): > > Well, that’s depressing. I looked at that. I think what may be happening is that now that the impeachment has actually started, the pollsters are starting to ask the question “should Trump be impeached and removed” more than asking “Should there be impeachment hearings.” The approval for the latter is much higher than the approval for the former. If you click the buttons to separate those questions, the graphs look like they have been fairly stable since the Ukraine story broke. So my only conclusion is that the mixture of the two must have altered. I hope Nate addresses this. ---
**Author:** ![pigtwo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pigtwo/32/18234_2.png) [@pigtwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pigtwo)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2019, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-impeachment-inquiry/840771/5355 "2019-11-21T20:51:41Z")
> [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > I looked at that. I think what may be happening is that now that the impeachment has actually started, the pollsters are starting to ask the question “should Trump be impeached and removed” more than asking “Should there be impeachment hearings.” The approval for the latter is much higher than the approval for the former. > > If you click the buttons to separate those questions, the graphs look like they have been fairly stable since the Ukraine story broke. So my only conclusion is that the mixture of the two must have altered. > > I hope Nate addresses this. Someone mentioned that on a recent 538 podcast(I think 11/20/19 pod). That said basically what you said. As it moves further along pollsters stop asking about the less severe actions(IE inquiry). So it’s not clear anything has changed. If anything you might need to really look at the data to see if you’d expect a larger drop now that the inquiry is started and thus not being asked about. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2019, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-impeachment-inquiry/840771/5356 "2019-11-21T20:54:38Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > My bold. > > I did listen to part of her testimony and she’s not saying, “YOU [Congress] are playing into their hands [with this hearing],” IMHO she’s saying, “Trump is such a fucking idiot that HE played right into Putin’s hands and the resulting chaos and divisiveness is exactly what Putin wanted.” IOW Putin played the soon-to-be-ex like a fucking Stradivarius. I have to object to this characterization. The America-hating fuckstick more closely resembles a cheap kazoo than a Stradivarius. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2019, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-impeachment-inquiry/840771/5357 "2019-11-21T20:57:05Z")
When I look at the civil servants testifying against the threats of their careers and even their personal safety, I see bravery. I see people putting their careers on the line to protect the country against the corruption of people who are above their pay grades. The might see themselves as the last line of defense against tyranny. But I don’t think that’s how a lot of the country sees them. Although I don’t think that people view this as a witch hunt; it probably is difficult to separate these hearings from the Benghazi show that Trey Gowdy put on a few years ago. Cynically, a byproduct of republicans gone wild is that they’ve destroyed the entire credibility of congressional oversight, because we just assume that it’s partisan anytime it involves a majority party investigating something that the opposition party has done. The fact that the allegations are serious and have merit gets lost in the vortex of the storm. I think headed not just for a constitutional crisis, but for a political crisis. ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2019, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-impeachment-inquiry/840771/5358 "2019-11-21T20:59:08Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > I think this may emerge as a key issue in the campaign: “Can you imagine a Trump presidency where he has nothing left to lose?” Don’t give the Trump campaign any ideas. 🙂 I hear that being said in a deep voice-over, with a picture of Trump superimposed over a blue sky, partially hiding a slowly waving American flag. And then a musical fade-in begins… Trump is just another word for nothin’ left to lose Nothin’, don’t mean nothin’, if it ain’t me Helping me is easy, Lord, oh say can’t you see? You know, helping me wasn’t good for Zel-en-ski But it will be good enough for you, when you re-elect me _I said, la da da, da da da, la da da da, da, dah-dah…_ ---
**Author:** ![Skypist](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skypist/32/169_2.png) [@Skypist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skypist)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2019, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-impeachment-inquiry/840771/5359 "2019-11-21T21:33:56Z")
Thanks to those of you discussing the polling on impeachment in more detail. Math and statistics are not my strong suit and I haven’t had a chance to listen to as many 538 podcasts lately. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2019, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-impeachment-inquiry/840771/5360 "2019-11-21T21:34:44Z")
> [@pigtwo](#): > > Someone mentioned that on a recent 538 podcast(I think 11/20/19 pod). That said basically what you said. As it moves further along pollsters stop asking about the less severe actions(IE inquiry). So it’s not clear anything has changed. If anything you might need to really look at the data to see if you’d expect a larger drop now that the inquiry is started and thus not being asked about. To some extent, I respect the nitpicking but, likewise, Michael Mann’s hockey stick graph was wrong - only the corrected version was also a hockey stick and everyone else’s attempt to do the same thing as Mann had also produced a hockey stick. Any of the three versions of the graph is trending downward. It is probably correct that some of the severity is a factor that we’re migrating from prioritizing underlying graph B where, previously, we were prioritizing underlying graph A - and I did miss that aspect, I’m not saying that I didn’t get caught by the misread. But, ultimately, the proof that Trump is guilty is better and clearer today than it was two weeks ago and has only improved with time. That should make “impeach and remove” go upwards. It should make both underlying graphs go upwards. I mean, I can certainly hope to have cynicism proved invalid but that’s not the current winning argument, from the data at hand today. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-impeachment-inquiry/840771.md?page=267) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-impeachment-inquiry/840771.md?page=269)