# The Trump Presidency HAS to end with Impeachment... right? **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [May 11, 2017, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-presidency-has-to-end-with-impeachment-right/786406 "2017-05-11T23:48:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 15
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 1:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-presidency-has-to-end-with-impeachment-right/786406/281 "2017-05-17T13:12:24Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > BobLibDem, November 4th, 2014: > > McConnell faced Democratic Alison Grimes, the Kentucky Secretary of State, in the general election. He won 56% to 41%, an over 15 percentage points victory and his second-largest margin of victory for any of his senate races. In other words, it wasn’t even close. > > Also for 2014: > > You predicted Colorado incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Udall to beat Republican then-Congressman Cory Gardner. Gardner beat incumbent Udall. > > You predicted Iowa Democrats would retain Tom Harkin’s seat. Democrat Bruce Braley, the Congressman for Iowa’s 1st Congressional District, lost to Republican State Senator Joni Ernst. > > In Georgia, you predicted a Democratic Senate win, but what happened was that David Perdue, a Republican with no prior elected office to his name, beat Michelle Nunn, a Democrat with no prior elected office to her name (except than Sam Nunn is her father). > > If I recall correctly, the only one you got right in that thread was Michigan Democratic Congressman Gary Peters winning the Senate seat against Republican Terri Land. > > Is there any failure point at which you’d say to yourself, “Perhaps my predictive powers are not as keen as I’d thought they were?” Or does the litany of incorrect predictions simply not bother you at all? I follow in the footsteps of Jeanne Dixon, make a lot of predictions and when one gets proven right, I’ll be proclaimed a seer. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 1:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-presidency-has-to-end-with-impeachment-right/786406/282 "2017-05-17T13:14:06Z")
**Czarcasm** – Do you agree that in post 268 I gave you a straight, unambiguous answer to the question you asked in post 255? ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 1:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-presidency-has-to-end-with-impeachment-right/786406/283 "2017-05-17T13:15:23Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > I follow in the footsteps of Jeanne Dixon, make a lot of predictions and when one gets proven right, I’ll be proclaimed a seer. That’s refreshingly honest. I agree that this is what you’re doing. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 1:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-presidency-has-to-end-with-impeachment-right/786406/284 "2017-05-17T13:21:52Z")
Without very clear and indisputable evidence of criminality, impeaching Trump is probably a bad idea, politically speaking, for the Democrats. However, talking about it at this point, in the minority, might not be a bad idea, politically speaking. Especially as more questionable (if not indisputable) evidence comes to light – it will force Republicans to either defend or condemn Trump’s actions, eventually. Speaking as a Democrat, the best political outcome is for enough evidence to come out in the next few months that the Republicans turn against him, and either start impeachment proceedings or he resigns. And because Trump is Trump, he will never go quietly, and I strongly suspect he would rip and attack Republicans who turned on him with even harsher rhetoric than he used against Clinton and Obama. He might even support a third party, just for spite, if Pence doesn’t stand by him (and he probably couldn’t if it got this bad). This would be an incredible boon for the Democrats, and greatly increase their chances in 2018 and 2020. The best thing for the country would be for Trump to quietly resign tomorrow. But that’s about as likely as me winning the lottery, and I don’t buy tickets. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 1:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-presidency-has-to-end-with-impeachment-right/786406/285 "2017-05-17T13:22:31Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > I follow in the footsteps of Jeanne Dixon, make a lot of predictions and when one gets proven right, I’ll be proclaimed a seer. 🙂 Now that’s the **Bob** we all used to love to love! ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-presidency-has-to-end-with-impeachment-right/786406/286 "2017-05-17T13:24:44Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > I’ve got five hundred bucks says you’re wrong. > > 1. You are underestimating Trump’s core support to a truly bizarre degree. There is no chance in hell that in six week any significant number of Trumpists will be converted. None. > > 2. You are wildly overestimating Republican patriotism. Republicans don’t value America over their jobs and their agenda; it’s much more important to them to hurt gay people than it is to help other Americans. They will NOT impeach unless not doing so is a risk to their re-election chances. > > 3. You don’t seem to understand Donald Trump. There isn’t a hope in hell Donald Trump resigns in six weeks. Have you not been watching this guy? > That doesn’t really matter, because you don’t need it to be unanimous. > > To get an impeachment vote, you only need a simple majority in the House and 2/3rd to convict in the Senate. To flip the House, therefore, you need to get just 24 Republicans out of 241 to flip, which is a small number; there are far, far more than 24 Republican districts where Trumpists are not sufficiently numerous to overwhelm the swing voters in the 2018 midterms if the evidence against Trump is really, really crushing. (I am assuming Democratic unanimity, which is a reasonable prediction of an impeachment vote occurs only after damning evidence comes out.) > > To get him convicted, you need 67 Senators, so you need to flip 19 Republicans. Again, with damning evidence, you certainly have 19 Senators in sufficiently purple or blue states that they would fear for their jobs if they were openly supporting a criminal. > > But the evidence must be very publically damning. It has to make voters angry. Ordinarily, I might agree with all that. But things are happening very quickly and Republicans in Congress are getting very nervous indeed. 1- Yes, the followers of Donald are very passionate. He has become a personality cult to maybe 20% of the electorate. There are districts where opposing him is political suicide, but those seats are in the minority. 2- You don’t have to flip that many people in the House to get impeachment. I don’t think it is undoable, and as the scandal continues to unravel at breakneck speed, he will become a political liability that Republicans can’t afford. Senators are, as a whole, honorable people regardless of party. Since they don’t benefit from gerrymandering, they need to have more crossover appeal than House members. 3- The Donald didn’t want to win and he neither wants nor likes the job. This gig means absolutely nothing to him, he’ll just pardon himself, sign his resignation letter, and go crawl back under a rock. This guy is Nixon, only more crooked and extremely incompetent. Republicans would rather cut him loose and go about their business cutting taxes for the rich before their majority evaporates. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 1:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-presidency-has-to-end-with-impeachment-right/786406/287 "2017-05-17T13:25:06Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > I’d need evidence rising to the level of probable cause that Trump had violated the criminal law of the United States. > [@Bricker](#): > > **Czarcasm** – > > Do you agree that in post 268 I gave you a straight, unambiguous answer to the question you asked in post 255? I think the question is, what criminal laws? Your answer to that is extremely ambiguous. I assume that jaywalking is not enough, but that personally murdering a dozen teenage girls is, assuming both can be proven. What crime would trump have to be suspected of committing with evidence rising to the level of probably cause to, IYHO, justify impeachment. ETA: Examples. If it was proven that Comey’s firing was to stop the russian investigation. (Comey has tapes of trump demanding that he end the investigation or be fired) Is there anything on the annulments side that would make you think that ti’s impeachable? If Vlad personally gives trump a check for millions of dollars, with the memo line filled out “For letting me invade ukraine”. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 1:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-presidency-has-to-end-with-impeachment-right/786406/288 "2017-05-17T13:27:00Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > That’s refreshingly honest. I agree that this is what you’re doing. And when I’m proven right you are never going to hear the end of it. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 1:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-presidency-has-to-end-with-impeachment-right/786406/289 "2017-05-17T13:29:23Z")
Impeachment isn’t a question of laws, but of politics. Laws provide the pretext, but not the impetus. The impetus for impeachment will be political, and if/when that tipping point is reached, then and only then will the question of “well, what should we impeach him _for_?” will rise. Trump is providing a target-rich environment for that question, so the choice will be relatively easy. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 1:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-presidency-has-to-end-with-impeachment-right/786406/290 "2017-05-17T13:33:36Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > And when I’m proven right you are never going to hear the end of it. Right. But when you’re proven wrong, we just ignore that until the next prediction? As you say, that’s the Jeanne Dixon model! I dunno. . . it feels like if this were really a community about fighting ignorance, more people would impose a social cost on your wrong predictions, calling them out as they fail. But if this were a community about advancing liberal political ideology, then it would act exactly as it’s acting now. ---
**Author:** ![Slash1972](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slash1972/32/6461_2.png) [@Slash1972](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slash1972)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-presidency-has-to-end-with-impeachment-right/786406/291 "2017-05-17T13:36:20Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > I’d need evidence rising to the level of probable cause that Trump had violated the criminal law of the United States. This seems like an almost insurmountable barrier. Don’t you think using knee-jerk emotional reactions to things that you FEEL are illegal as a litmus test for your calls of impeachment is a better way ahead? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-presidency-has-to-end-with-impeachment-right/786406/292 "2017-05-17T13:39:40Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Right. But when you’re proven wrong, we just ignore that until the next prediction? > > As you say, that’s the Jeanne Dixon model! > > I dunno. . . it feels like if this were really a community about fighting ignorance, more people would impose a social cost on your wrong predictions, calling them out as they fail. > > But if this were a community about advancing liberal political ideology, then it would act exactly as it’s acting now. I’ll try and do my part: **BobLibDem** , making bad predictions willy-nilly makes you look silly. I encourage you to not do so. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-presidency-has-to-end-with-impeachment-right/786406/293 "2017-05-17T13:41:01Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Right. But when you’re proven wrong, we just ignore that until the next prediction? > > As you say, that’s the Jeanne Dixon model! > > I dunno. . . it feels like if this were really a community about fighting ignorance, more people would impose a social cost on your wrong predictions, calling them out as they fail. > > But if this were a community about advancing liberal political ideology, then it would act exactly as it’s acting now. I proposed putting a scarlet letter next to their usernames, but the moderators scoffed at that idea. #losers!! ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 1:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-presidency-has-to-end-with-impeachment-right/786406/294 "2017-05-17T13:44:06Z")
> [@Slash1972](#): > > This seems like an almost insurmountable barrier. Don’t you think using knee-jerk emotional reactions to things that you FEEL are illegal as a litmus test for your calls of impeachment is a better way ahead? Your ideas are intriguing to me and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 1:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-presidency-has-to-end-with-impeachment-right/786406/295 "2017-05-17T13:45:10Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I’ll try and do my part: **BobLibDem** , making bad predictions willy-nilly makes you look silly. I encourage you to not do so. With that post, you’ve done everything humanly possible. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 1:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-presidency-has-to-end-with-impeachment-right/786406/296 "2017-05-17T13:49:31Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I’ll try and do my part: **BobLibDem** , making bad predictions willy-nilly makes you look silly. I encourage you to not do so. This time, I’ll be proven right. Back to the matter at hand. Bricker seems to think that the allegations do not meet a threshold of illegality to justify impeachment. But unanswered are these: Did the allegations against Nixon meet that threshold and if so, what did he do that Donald did not? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 1:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-presidency-has-to-end-with-impeachment-right/786406/297 "2017-05-17T13:52:42Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > With that post, you’ve done everything humanly possible. It’s a tough job, but someone has to do it. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 1:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-presidency-has-to-end-with-impeachment-right/786406/298 "2017-05-17T13:55:07Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > I don’t claim to favor impeaching Trump. > > I opposed Obama in 2012. But I didn’t favor impeaching him after he won. > > Do you see why? Because his Administration was the most scandal-free Presidency of my lifetime? (Even Ike had Sherman Adams.) > [@](#): > > I opposed Trump as a candidate, and (with a couple of notable exceptions) I have been unimpressed with Trump as a President. But I don’t agree that my reaction justifies impeachment. > > How to dump Trump? Plan for 2020. Do you want to build a strawman? Never mind, you just did. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 1:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-presidency-has-to-end-with-impeachment-right/786406/299 "2017-05-17T13:55:10Z")
> **[Impeachment of Andrew Johnson](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Andrew_Johnson)** > > The impeachment of Andrew Johnson was initiated on February 24, 1868, when the United States House of Representatives passed a resolution to impeach Andrew Johnson, the 17th president of the United States, for "high crimes and misdemeanors". The alleged high crimes and misdemeanors were afterwards specified in eleven articles of impeachment adopted by the House on March 2 and 3, 1868. The primary charge against Johnson was that he had violated the Tenure of Office Act. Specifically, that he h... #NeverForget #Uh,WeDidForget Impeached for breaking a law designed to keep one guy in office, a law that came into effect just a year prior. Again, impeachment doesn’t need a serious crime, and I don’t think it needs a crime at all, just the political will. ---
**Author:** ![wolfman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/a8b319/32.png) [@wolfman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfman)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2017, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-presidency-has-to-end-with-impeachment-right/786406/300 "2017-05-17T13:57:48Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > I’d need evidence rising to the level of probable cause that Trump had violated the criminal law of the United States. That is a frightening interpretation. The laws are written to give the president so broad of powers that it’s questionable if a president can ever legally commit treason. (not making an argument that is the case here, just hypothetical) And if the standard for removal is committing a crime, it’s makes it impossible to remove a president who is actively and blatantly undermining the country, as long as he doesn’t lie about it under oath. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-presidency-has-to-end-with-impeachment-right/786406.md?page=14) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-presidency-has-to-end-with-impeachment-right/786406.md?page=16)