# The Trump Recession **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [February 20, 2025, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592 "2025-02-20T20:13:47Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2025, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/181 "2025-04-09T14:03:14Z")
May be the second amendment _is_ the civilized method of advanced democracies? Maintaining it requires a yearly tribute of young lives but if that’s the cost of civilization and democracy… (I think I prefer our current uncivilized tyranny…) ---
**Author:** ![beowulff](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/beowulff/32/542_2.png) [@beowulff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/beowulff)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2025, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/182 "2025-04-09T15:04:53Z")
Time is fleeting. Madness takes its toll. Dead cat bounce is over. ---
**Author:** ![Ellecram](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellecram/32/18948_2.png) [@Ellecram](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ellecram)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2025, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/183 "2025-04-09T15:30:54Z")
_“They were careless people, Tom and Daisy- they smashed up things and creatures and then retreated back into their money or their vast carelessness or whatever it was that kept them together, and let other people clean up the mess they had made.” F. Scott Fitzgerald, The Great Gatsby_ I sincerely hope we have the opportunity to clean up the current mess. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2025, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/184 "2025-04-09T16:08:11Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > I believe twenty defections are needed for a veto override. AIUI, a veto override requires a two-thirds majority vote in both the House and Senate. - In the House, there are currently 433 Representatives (220 Republican, 213 Democrat, 2 vacancies). A 2/3 vote, among current representatives, would mean 289 votes; assuming every Democrat supported an override, you’d need 76 Republicans (or a whole lot of them abstaining) - In the Senate, it’s currently 53 Republican, 47 Democrat (including independents who caucus with the Democrats). A 2/3 vote would be 67, so again, assuming every Democrat votes to override, you would, indeed, need 20 from the GOP. At this point, I think a Senate override is a lot more likely than a House override. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2025, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/185 "2025-04-09T17:11:41Z")
> [@DWMarch](#): > > No. There is another Per the SDMB rules, I am only considering legal options. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2025, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/186 "2025-04-09T17:19:55Z")
> [@SunUp](#): > > > [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > > > That’s it. That’s the only avenues to remove him. > > Technically, you don’t _have_ to remove him to stop the tariffs. I was responding to @SenorBeef ‘s comment. Changing the law relating to tariffs may solve this particular problem but does not remove him from office. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2025, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/187 "2025-04-09T17:28:21Z")
The Dow Jones is soaring. Like, it just exploded in the last half hour. Bizarre. ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2025, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/188 "2025-04-09T17:29:52Z")
I was going to post that, may be rumours of a backtrack on tariffs? ---
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2025, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/189 "2025-04-09T17:31:34Z")
From the NYT: April 9, 2025, 1:28 p.m. ET1 minute ago Deborah B. Solomon President Trump on Wednesday said he would halt implementation of his reciprocal tariffs for the next 90 days, citing new talks with foreign nations on trade. But Trump said his break did not include China, announcing he would instead raise tariffs on its exports to 125 percent after Beijing announced a new round of retaliation. ---
**Author:** ![DavidNRockies](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidnrockies/32/6279_2.png) [@DavidNRockies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DavidNRockies)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2025, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/190 "2025-04-09T17:32:02Z")
It needs to be said once more: How I’m seeing Trump’s general approach to governing, economics, and foreign policy: > Good night, Westley. Good work. Sleep well. I’ll most likely kill you in the morning. – [**The Princess Bride**](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNzi2edJmfc) Does it ever yield results? Sure. And a blowtorch _can_ be an effective treatment for athlete’s foot. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2025, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/191 "2025-04-09T18:22:45Z")
> [@asterion](#): > > President Trump on Wednesday said he would halt implementation of his reciprocal tariffs for the next 90 days, citing new talks with foreign nations on trade. From the AP: > [@](#): > > “I have authorized a 90 day PAUSE,” Trump said, after recognizing the more than 75 countries that he said have been negotiating on trade and had not retaliated against his latest increase in tariffs. > > Treasury Secretary [Scott Bessent](https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-republicans-senate-house-2409e9ff50290edac738ad6e4e8e78b9) later told reporters that Trump was pausing his so-called ‘reciprocal’ tariffs on most of the country’s biggest trading partners, but maintaining his 10% tariff on nearly all global imports. > **[Dow surges 2,600 as US stocks soar in relief after Trump pauses some of his...](https://apnews.com/article/stocks-markets-tariffs-trump-721a3a5971f1b254981d32f4acb9eb17)** > > U.S. stocks are surging on a euphoric Wall Street after President Donald Trump said he would temporarily back off on some of his tariffs, as investors had desperately hoped he would. ---
**Author:** ![Fugazi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/f08c70/32.png) [@Fugazi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fugazi)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2025, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/192 "2025-04-09T19:13:02Z")
Reminds me of a story I heard about a guy who would hit himself in the head with a hammer because it felt so good whenever he’d stop. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2025, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/193 "2025-04-10T16:29:57Z")
And it’s collapsing today. The stock market is not a recession. But it’s sure a bad sign. ---
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2025, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/194 "2025-04-10T16:55:31Z")
Just for the record: I hit my head once and it hurt. It was an accident, I did not do it on purpose, and I did not do it a second time. It still kept hurting for a while. I did not feel better afterwards, I felt worse. Only much later I felt as good as before, not better. The idea with the hammer, specially done more than once, is something I strongly advise against. Pro tip: If you really must try it, do it on somebody else’s head. You will see clearly that they do not feel good at all when you stop, nor show any gratitude when you do. Pro2 tip: do it to somebody you really don’t like and wear a mask in case the person survives. I hope it is not necessary, but just in case: /s ---
**Author:** ![RitterSport](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rittersport/32/6326_2.png) [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2025, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/195 "2025-04-10T17:47:11Z")
I hit myself in the head with a hammer in 1930. I was already depressed, but it really made it worse, a Great Depression if you will. After that, I worked really hard with other countries to avoid anyone hitting themselves with a hammer, and I continue to oppose our current national goal of starting that up again. ---
**Author:** ![DavidNRockies](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidnrockies/32/6279_2.png) [@DavidNRockies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DavidNRockies)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2025, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/196 "2025-04-11T16:50:59Z")
So, on a positive note … Americans generally seem to be taking the economic news in stride: > **[US consumer sentiment plummets to second-lowest level on records going back...](https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/11/economy/us-consumer-sentiment-april/index.html)** > > Americans are rarely this pessimistic about the economy. > Consumer sentiment plunged 11% this month to a preliminary reading of 50.8, the University of Michigan said in its latest survey released Friday, the second-lowest reading on records going back to 1952. April’s reading was lower than anything seen during the Great Recession. Maybe he’d better put a pin in that whole “stop making the penny” thing. We may need those soon enough. ETA: also, we _are_ hearing that a bunch of Wall Street types believe either that a recession is likely or that we may be in one already. I’ve seen few state that publicly: > **[BlackRock's Larry Fink says U.S. is very close to a recession and may be in...](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/11/blackrocks-larry-fink-says-us-is-very-close-to-a-recession-and-may-be-in-one-now.html)** > > The asset management executive spoke to CNBC about the state of the economy, which has been rattled by tariffs from the Trump administration. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2025, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/197 "2025-04-11T17:02:39Z")
> [@DavidNRockies](#): > > also, we _are_ hearing that a bunch of Wall Street types believe either that a recession is likely or that we may be in one already. Doesn’t it take two quarters of negative growth for an “official” recession to be declared? My opinion is we’re like Wile E. Coyote who hasn’t yet realized he’s run past the cliff edge. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2025, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/198 "2025-04-11T17:09:01Z")
> [@Pleonast](#): > > Doesn’t it take two quarters of negative growth for an “official” recession to be declared? That’s the usual definition, yes. However, this article notes that the National Bureau of Economic Research, which is apparently the organization which is responsible for officially designating recessions, does not always follow that rule of thumb: > [@](#): > > While [gross domestic product (GDP)](https://www.bea.gov/help/glossary/gross-domestic-product-gdp) is the broadest measure of economic activity, the often-cited identification of a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative [GDP](https://www.bea.gov/help/glossary/gross-domestic-product-gdp) growth is not an official designation. The designation of a recession is the province of a committee of experts at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private non-profit research organization that focuses on understanding the U.S. economy. The NBER recession is a monthly concept that takes account of a number of monthly indicators—such as employment, [personal income](https://www.bea.gov/help/glossary/personal-income), and industrial production—as well as quarterly [GDP](https://www.bea.gov/help/glossary/gross-domestic-product-gdp) growth. Therefore, while negative [GDP](https://www.bea.gov/help/glossary/gross-domestic-product-gdp) growth and recessions closely track each other, the consideration by the NBER of the monthly indicators, especially employment, means that the identification of a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative [GDP](https://www.bea.gov/help/glossary/gross-domestic-product-gdp) growth does not always hold. > **[Recession | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)](https://www.bea.gov/help/glossary/recession)** > > In general usage, the word recession connotes a marked slippage in economic activity. While gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity, the often-cited identification of a recession with two consecutive quarters of... ---
**Author:** ![Q.Q.Switcheroo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/q.q.switcheroo/32/5713_2.png) [@Q.Q.Switcheroo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Q.Q.Switcheroo)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2025, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/199 "2025-04-11T17:39:36Z")
A recession is when your neighbor loses his job. A depression is when you lose yours. ---
**Author:** ![RitterSport](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rittersport/32/6326_2.png) [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2025, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/200 "2025-04-11T17:53:25Z")
Tragedy is when I stub my toe. Comedy is when you fall down an open manhole and die. Anyway, Larry Fink and other such captains of industry have no idea, really. They’re traders, not economists. I’m not saying we’re not in one, and weird things are happening in long bonds, and consumer sentiment is falling off a cliff, but I doubt the numbers will show anything for a few months. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592.md?page=11)