# The Trump Recession **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [February 20, 2025, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592 "2025-02-20T20:13:47Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![wguy123](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wguy123/32/3161_2.png) [@wguy123](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wguy123)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2025, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/21 "2025-02-22T00:07:57Z")
DOW only down a bit over 2% this week. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2025, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/22 "2025-02-22T00:15:09Z")
I hope it crashes. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2025, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/23 "2025-02-22T00:46:37Z")
> [@Pardel-Lux](#): > > And when and if I do, the mega-rich will have been faster. The best we _hoi polloi_ can expect to do then will be to cut our losses. Because the rich pulling out is what causes the downturn. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2025, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/24 "2025-02-22T00:48:43Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > I hope it crashes Actually, I do too. A market crash is pretty much the only thing that will tell Trump he’s doing something wrong. Everything else, he’ll ignore. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2025, 1:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/25 "2025-02-22T01:11:22Z")
> [@Palooka](#): > > I’ve seen interviews with experts in NYT and WaPo saying that Musk and DOGE aren’t going to accomplish much to help the deficit because their cuts amount to spitting into the wind. That probably isn’t going to result in a recession. > > The return to mercantilism might, if all the tariff sticks. DOGE isn’t going to affect the deficit since the vast majority of federal spending is on welfare programs (medicare, medicaid, social security) and the military. There isn’t much they are going to be able to cut. Hopefully. However the tariffs, the trade wars, labor shortages due to immigrants not showing up to work or being deported, etc could easily cause a serious recession and make inflation worse. Combined with the fact that for the next 4 years we are going to have republicans who try to combine extra military spending with tax cuts for the rich, and the deficit will get even worse. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2025, 3:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/26 "2025-02-22T03:20:58Z")
> [@Pardel-Lux](#): > > Shorting a small bet against Tesla though. One more triumph of hope against experience. What are the terms of the short? I think Michael Burry has been shorting Tesla since something like 2020. Looking at the financials, Tesla was steady at about $15-20 a share from 2013 to 2019. With 3.22 billion shares, that would give Tesla a market cap of 48-64 billion. Which is about right for the size of Tesla regarding the number of cars they produce, and about the same as Ford’s market cap. Then in 2020 the stock skyrocketed for some reason, hitting about $230 a share by december. But its stubbornly remained high since then. [[Album] imgur.com ![](https://i.imgur.com/Y9nROUF.png?fb "imgur.com") ](https://imgur.com/a/SN9gHkN) I don’t trust myself to outsmart the market and am just leaving my money in index funds. But when you short, how much do you pay per year you short? Is it about 5% of the value of the stock? So if Tesla is running at $260 a share when you short, you have to pay $13 a year on each share to keep your short options? ---
**Author:** ![DaveUnknown](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/94ad74/32.png) [@DaveUnknown](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DaveUnknown)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2025, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/27 "2025-02-22T04:12:16Z")
Just buy TSDD. An ETF that mirrors TSLA short x2 ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2025, 4:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/28 "2025-02-22T04:44:25Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > DOGE isn’t going to affect the deficit since the vast majority of federal spending is on welfare programs (medicare, medicaid, social security) and the military. There isn’t much they are going to be able to cut. Hopefully. Given how much access they have they can probably effectively end Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security by breaking the system to the point it’s no long _capable_ of sustaining them. If the databases are all erased or inaccessible they won’t know who, what, where or how to do their jobs. Of curse this would make the upcoming economic disaster worse, but right-wingers would never _believe_ that. They’re just removing waste and cutting off subhuman parasites. ---
**Author:** ![Heracles](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heracles/32/487_2.png) [@Heracles](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heracles)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2025, 5:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/29 "2025-02-22T05:02:58Z")
> [@Pardel-Lux](#): > > (…) and considering that those multi-billionaires are purportedly set to gain the most (at least in the short(-sighted)) term, from the temper tanTrump’s economic policies, what do you think they are doing? Holding and, in so far as they still have any liquidity left and are not fully invested anyway, or if they can leverage more than they already do, buying. That moves the markets, not our sentiment, yours, mine and anyone else’s that we probably know, not even in large numbers. Yes, but we now have a situation of the multi-billionaires actually having an insider view of Trump’s policies – or even a direct hand in them. They can weather a recession better than most, especially if they can sell some shares just in the nick of time, and/or short-sell stocks. In other news, the SEC was rendered toothless this week. ---
**Author:** ![wguy123](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wguy123/32/3161_2.png) [@wguy123](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wguy123)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2025, 5:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/30 "2025-02-22T05:29:33Z")
I have too much in cash now…a ridiculous amount. But, it’s set at 4-5% for a long time now. If things completely shit the bed, as they very well could, I’m ready. ---
**Author:** ![OldOlds](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a3d4f5/32.png) [@OldOlds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldOlds)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2025, 12:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/31 "2025-02-22T12:19:39Z")
Or, if you have $400 billion and you know everything is going to tank, it might be a good time to go on a buying spree. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2025, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/32 "2025-02-22T14:30:27Z")
> [@wguy123](#): > > I have too much in cash now…a ridiculous amount. But, it’s set at 4-5% for a long time now. If things completely shit the bed, as they very well could, I’m ready. I don’t have enough cash. I just checked my 401K, and it’s down about 0.8% from yesterday. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2025, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/33 "2025-02-22T14:41:35Z")
> [@dolphinboy](#): > > I happen to speak to my Merrill Lynch broker yesterday and he said while he expects ups and down throughout the year, overall their expectation is still continued growth. I have no idea what that’s based on, or whether he’s delusional, but I’m not going to pull out because a recession may be in the offing. I’ve gone through a few recessions in the past and have always come out ahead in the long run. the financial world has long lost its footing in the real economy … examples are manifold: germany being (or hovering around) in a recession for quite some time (2-3 years) - AND the outlook for the next years is grim as well… but look at the DAX (Germ. Stock Index) for the same period (dont wanna open the file: short reading: the DAX nearly doubled) [https://i.postimg.cc/vB3pQqw4/image.png](https://i.postimg.cc/vB3pQqw4/image.png) ---
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2025, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/34 "2025-02-22T14:54:13Z")
> [@Al128](#): > > the financial world has long lost its footing in the real economy … examples are manifold > […] > the DAX nearly doubled Yes and no. The dissociation of the real economy and the stock exchange has been a fact for over 30 years, and it cannot go on forever. But the fact that Germany is in a recession has little bearing on the performance of Germany’s big enterprises, who earn most of their revenue abroad (as seen from Germany). Germany’s biggest enterprises, BTW, are not really German anymore anyway. The vast majority of the shares in the DAX are held by foreigners, mostly US-Americans and the Gulf States. The temper tanTrump punishing the bad, bad, worse, so unfair! German exporters hurts US interests, including pension funds, 401(k) and so on. Not that he understands or cares, nor is it the worst thing he is currently doing, not even the most relevant. But still it shows his idiocy. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2025, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/35 "2025-02-22T15:31:31Z")
good points along the line of “_it is all so much more complex nowadays_” (which makes Trusks simple solutions even more ridiculous, stuff like what is the % of foreign content/parts in a car built in the USA … and what happens to its price if the foreign parts’ price increases due to tarrifs?) ---
**Author:** ![Balthisar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/balthisar/32/2825_2.png) [@Balthisar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Balthisar)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2025, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/36 "2025-02-22T21:33:45Z")
Given I have some time until I retire, it would be like 2008 and 2009 all over again. A great time to buy cheap and await a recovery. I’m on board with this. ---
**Author:** ![Ellecram](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellecram/32/18948_2.png) [@Ellecram](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ellecram)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2025, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/37 "2025-02-22T21:41:52Z")
Although I hope it crashes as well it’s such a depressing time for me. I was supposed to retire this year in April or May but I have suspended that for the foreseeable future - possibly forever. ---
**Author:** ![dolphinboy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dolphinboy/32/330_2.png) [@dolphinboy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dolphinboy)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2025, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/38 "2025-02-22T21:49:39Z")
As a fully retired person who owns his own house and has enough financial reserves to last until I’m 90, I truly hope Trump leads us into a full-blown Depression. Maybe then some MAGA folks will realize they have been duped by a conman of epic proportions (again). Not that they will admit they ever made a mistake supporting him. If things get bad enough, it may create an opportunity for someone other than a Trumpian Republican to take over the reins and rebuild the country back to the way it was. I know that’s wishful thinking, but I need a reason to stick around and see what happens. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2025, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/39 "2025-02-22T22:07:16Z")
[Googles] The Dow is down another 748.63 (1.69%) today – correction, yesterday. I’m in my mid-70s, still working as a freelance proofreader for court reporters, getting by because Social Security pays the mortgage on my condo, with enough left over to apply to other bills. Don’t have enough of a nest egg to retire even if the funds my IRA is in don’t tank. I expect these clowns to crash the economy, diminishing my income as badly as COVID did, and gut Social Security and Medicare. I’ll be fucked. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2025, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/40 "2025-02-22T22:24:30Z")
> [@dolphinboy](#): > > Not that they will admit they ever made a mistake supporting him. If things get bad enough, it may create an opportunity for someone other than a Trumpian Republican to take over the reins and rebuild the country back to the way it was. many of the GOP-fanatics did not even reproach Trumps handling of covid, with 1.1mio death - even with family members having died of it … so that is somewhat of a precedent to check against. * * * I see NO way of not falling into a recession (numbers might be manipulated by Trusk) … they simply chisel away 0.01 to 0.1% of growth by: - shutting down foreign help (100s or 1000s of farms sold their products into that channel) - 100.000s fed workers laid off (and hencly stopping their spending)… and 1.000.000 of gvt. workers stepping on the spending-brakes (well that new car that I budgeted for this year will have to wait for a couple of years) - slowdowns of everything that involves “govt. approval/certificates/rubberstamping” … (since many govt. services must be in complete disarray) - lots of deals falling through b/c of this - springback from disasters - 1000s of SMEs that provide service to govt. agencies (catering, cleaning, landscaping, consulting, or just a place to grab a cheap lunch for 1000s of employees no longer coming to office - there must be 1000s of bills going unpaid (or being paid for doing nothing), stuff like USAID warehouse rentals, etc… warehouses can liquidate stored goods if not paid… - add 100s of other examples along the same lines “_a gusto_” **those 0.01 or 0.1% of not produced GDP add up quickly and suddenly you are 2-3 % behind your ceteris paribus condition** [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592.md?page=3)