# The Trump Recession
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592
**Category:** Politics & Elections
**Tags:** trump
**Created:** [February 20, 2025, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592 "2025-02-20T20:13:47Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 20
### Author:  [@icon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/icon)
#### Post date: [September 14, 2025, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/381 "2025-09-14T15:37:23Z")
I just had a friend ask me whether the amount DHL was asking for duties on a purchase was correct. I had to tell him that I did not know. They were asking me because I have ordered from the same foreign company in the past, but that was before the de minimis rule for values less than $800 was rescinded. I imagine that is happening to a lot of people who were just buying something from an overseas company, not just because it was cheaper (which in this case it is not), but because they had the goods that they wanted. Sure it will cause them to decide not to buy something now, but for things they already purchased, they are stuck with the higher cost.
`//i\\`
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### Author:  [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)
#### Post date: [September 22, 2025, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/382 "2025-09-22T18:12:17Z")
It seems **nuts** when you think about it, but it is always the tiny things you didn’t consider that **screw** you in the end:
[https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/22/business/taiwan-manufacturing-trump-tariffs.html?unlocked\_article\_code=1.n08.PWz2.fN9z5Ejil3AH&smid=url-share](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/22/business/taiwan-manufacturing-trump-tariffs.html?unlocked_article_code=1.n08.PWz2.fN9z5Ejil3AH&smid=url-share)
Puns intended, preview from the NYT gift article is, as usual, **screwed** up. Ruins the puns, unfortunately.
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### Author:  [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)
#### Post date: [September 22, 2025, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/383 "2025-09-22T21:04:58Z")
Given how much the total value of the Stock Market and most index funds tend to rely on the software industry, and we’re looking to price out roughly 40% of the workforce from being able to participate (i.e. charging applicants $100k per head), it seems quite strange that tech stocks and the market would be up today.
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### Author:  [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)
#### Post date: [September 22, 2025, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/384 "2025-09-22T21:42:14Z")
You might as well tell me how comes that tesla closed today almost at an all-time-high: makes no sense. Maybe someone is cheating. I just don’t know how they do it. Or it is all those index funds: if you are the biggest fish in the pond all the fixed, regular contributions like 401k keep on buying your stock week after week.
At the same time gold, a fear investment if there ever was one, is at an all-time-high too. And not only in [U$-dollars](https://www.comdirect.de/inf/rohstoffe/detail/chart.html?timeSpan=SE&ID_NOTATION=1326189&).
I won’t even talk about crypto. I refuse to follow that crap.
But everybody, they say, is fully invested, often highly leveraged, while looking to be the one that quits just at the right time. It never works, but _this time it’s different_.
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### Author:  [@DavidNRockies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DavidNRockies)
#### Post date: [September 22, 2025, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/385 "2025-09-22T21:49:43Z")
I think the Chinese EV company, BYD, has been an auto-industry darling for quite a while, but a recent slowdown in East Asian sales probably has the market a bit bearish on BYD in the near- and mid-term, leaving – at least, in theory – an opening for Tesla to gain some (lost) ground in that valuable market:
[**Tesla stock forecast reset by analysts after visiting China: China’s EV industry has seen a downturn, so analysts at Piper Sandler made a trip there**](https://www.thestreet.com/automotive/tesla-stock-forecast-reset-by-analysts-after-visiting-china)
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### Author:  [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)
#### Post date: [September 22, 2025, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/386 "2025-09-22T22:03:08Z")
P/E ratio Tesla: 297. Shares rose from under 300 to over 430 Euro since mai.
P/E ration BYD: 20. Shares fell from over 17 to under 12 Euro since mai.
It’s only numbers.
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### Author:  [@DavidNRockies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DavidNRockies)
#### Post date: [September 22, 2025, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/387 "2025-09-22T22:07:45Z")
Certainly, I take your point, but [**I’m not at all sure what might explain these sorts of numbers**](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irrational_exuberance).
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### Author:  [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)
#### Post date: [October 3, 2025, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/388 "2025-10-03T17:04:17Z")
With a government shutdown, we are not getting updated data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics regarding unemployment and inflation.
But we did get a recent report on job growth.
It’s negative.
> **[The US economy lost 32,000 private-sector jobs in September | CNN Business](https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/01/economy/adp-private-jobs-report-september)**
>
> Private payrolls plunged in September, complicating the picture for the US economy as policymakers and investors struggle to assess the state of the labor market amid a government shutdown.
I guess if you liked Trump’s first term, you might be feeling nostalgic right about now.
> [@](#):
>
> So far this year, companies have announced 946,426 job cuts, the highest YTD since 2020 when 2,082,262 were announced. It is up 55% from the 609,242 job cuts announced through the first three quarters of last year and is up 24% from the 2024 full year total of 761,358. The 2025 year-to-date total is the fifth highest in the 36 years Challenger has reported.
>
> **“It’s very likely job cut plans are going to surpass a million for the first time since 2020 and for the ninth time in our series. Previous periods with this many job cuts occurred either during recessions or, as was the case in 2005 and 2006, during the first wave of automations that cost jobs in manufacturing and technology,”** said Andy Challenger, Senior Vice President and labor expert for Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
> **[September Job Cuts Fall 37% From August; YTD Total Highest Since 2020, Lowest...](https://www.challengergray.com/blog/september-job-cuts-fall-37-from-august-ytd-total-highest-since-2020-lowest-ytd-hiring-since-2009/)**
>
> Job cuts slowed in September, with 54,064 announced—down 37% from August and 26% from last year. Yet year-to-date cuts reached 946,426, the highest since 2020 and the fifth-highest in Challenger’s 36 years of tracking. Hiring plans are the weakest...
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### Author:  [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)
#### Post date: [October 3, 2025, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/389 "2025-10-03T19:48:38Z")
> [@Moriarty](#):
>
> With a government shutdown, we are not getting updated data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics regarding unemployment and inflation.
My company recently told us they needed to cut administrative costs in the tens of millions. In my book that means jobs. I’m expecting buyouts and layoffs before the end of they year and I wouldn’t be surprised if we have more layoffs this spring.
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### Author:  [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)
#### Post date: [October 7, 2025, 1:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/390 "2025-10-07T01:56:44Z")
Foreclosures are on the rise.
> [@](#):
>
> As of August, foreclosure filings had risen six straights months year-over-year and were up 18% from the same period in 2025 [sic], according to property data firm ATTOM. Through June, roughly 188,000 properties had foreclosure filings, putting the U.S. on track to surpass the roughly 322,000 U.S. properties that went into foreclosure in 2024.
> **[Foreclosures are surging as U.S. homeowners grapple with rising costs](https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/housing-market-foreclosure-increasing-attom-august-2025/)**
>
> A growing number of Americans, squeezed by inflation and elevated interest rates, face the risk of losing their home in foreclosure.
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### Author:  [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)
#### Post date: [October 7, 2025, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/391 "2025-10-07T02:12:45Z")
> [@Moriarty](#):
>
> Foreclosures are on the rise
The good times have come again!
> **[Trump Supporter Says His Earnings Have Quadrupled As Debt Collector](https://www.newsweek.com/jordan-klepper-trump-supporter-obama-debt-collector-1538548)**
>
> Klepper interviewed supporters at a recent Trump rally and was amused by one man who was making money as a debt collector.
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### Author:  [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)
#### Post date: [October 10, 2025, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/392 "2025-10-10T22:12:42Z")
And today the stock market has a momentous day, on account of Trump talking up more tarriffs.
> **[Wall Street tumbles in its worst day since April after Trump threatens more...](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/economy/wall-street-tumbles-in-its-worst-day-since-april-after-trump-threatens-more-tariffs-on-china)**
>
> A monthslong calm on Wall Street shattered Friday, and U.S. stocks tumbled after President Donald Trump threatened to crank tariffs much higher on China.
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### Author:  [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)
#### Post date: [October 10, 2025, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/393 "2025-10-10T22:16:56Z")
Have you noticed that he often does stupid things on Fridays, before the markets close for the weekend? I believe he does that on purpose because it fucks the markets and gives his friends a better chance at taking advantage of insider information. He is a genius: it is only stupid for the ones not in the know. He is fine.
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### Author:  [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)
#### Post date: [October 11, 2025, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/394 "2025-10-11T17:31:57Z")
There was a lot of trading yesterday on brand new accounts created just before his announcement and shut off afterwards. They made slightly under 200 million.
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### Author:  [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)
#### Post date: [October 11, 2025, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/395 "2025-10-11T21:44:13Z")
> [@DigitalC](#):
>
> There was a lot of trading yesterday on brand new accounts created just before his announcement and shut off afterwards. They made slightly under 200 million. .
It’s got several hits on Google search, but nothing yet from an NYT-level source.
>
>
> The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter
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### Author:  [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)
#### Post date: [October 12, 2025, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/396 "2025-10-12T14:37:42Z")
> [@DigitalC](#):
>
> There was a lot of trading yesterday on brand new accounts created just before his announcement and shut off afterwards. They made slightly under 200 million.
I’m pretty sure we can track that back to Barron Trump.
> [@](#):
>
> Barron, who taught his dad what a “wallet” is, cofounded World Liberty Financial, a cryptocurrency company, with his father and older brothers last year, less than two months before the 2024 election. Most financial advisors wouldn’t advise getting your parents into crypto, but most parents aren’t about to be elected president—and when Dad won, World Liberty exploded. _Forbes_ estimates that it’s added [over $1.5 billion to the Trump family fortunes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2025/09/22/heres-how-much-the-trump-kids-have-made-because-of-the-presidency/ "https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2025/09/22/heres-how-much-the-trump-kids-have-made-because-of-the-presidency/")—about 10% of which, or $150 million, belongs to Barron.
> **[Here’s How Much Barron Trump Is Worth](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kylemullins/2025/10/06/how-19-year-old-barron-trump-is-worth-150-million/)**
>
> Trump’s youngest son taught his dad a thing or two about crypto. Now the NYU sophomore is making a fortune before he even turns 20.
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### Author:  [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)
#### Post date: [October 12, 2025, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/397 "2025-10-12T16:45:37Z")
I knew the apple would not fall far from the horse.
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### Author:  [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)
#### Post date: [October 12, 2025, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/398 "2025-10-12T16:53:36Z")
I’m appropriating that for future use.
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### Author:  [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)
#### Post date: [October 13, 2025, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/399 "2025-10-13T02:33:06Z")
_slow clap_
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### Author:  [@crowmanyclouds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crowmanyclouds)
#### Post date: [October 13, 2025, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/400 "2025-10-13T02:36:10Z")
> [@Frodo](#):
>
> slow clap
Now, now, I’m sure Russian prostitutes are checked for that too.
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