# The Trump Recession
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592
**Category:** Politics & Elections
**Tags:** trump
**Created:** [February 20, 2025, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592 "2025-02-20T20:13:47Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 23
### Author:  [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)
#### Post date: [October 21, 2025, 1:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/441 "2025-10-21T13:20:06Z")
You are subsidizing Bessent and Caputo’s hedge funds friends.
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### Author:  [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)
#### Post date: [October 21, 2025, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/442 "2025-10-21T14:28:29Z")
Unless you’re a dictator who has his whole life to make any necessary changes, generally a politician has a fairly short window to try and make change, due to term limits, the fickle support of the general public, and who all they elect into office with you.
The right answer is to make slow, gradual changes that move things back in the right direction - even if that will easily in an underwhelming response by the electorate. The problem is that the sort of person who would want to do it that way is also the sort of person who generally can’t get elected by a popular vote among the people.
Any populist leader - left or right - is generally going to be fairly poor.
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### Author:  [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)
#### Post date: [October 21, 2025, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/443 "2025-10-21T14:55:43Z")
I also helps if you understand politics and the necessary compromises it implies, something that both shit-persons have trouble with.
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### Author:  [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)
#### Post date: [October 23, 2025, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/444 "2025-10-23T23:49:35Z")
> [@Ann\_Hedonia](#):
>
> [Argentina beef: Trump's new plan sparks fury after bailout - Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/argentina-beef-trump-plan-sparks-fury-bailout-10908176)
From the linked Newsweek article:
> _"We would buy some beef from Argentina,” Trump told reporters_
The US government itself is going to purchase (and distribute) beef? Or rather facilitate commercial US meat packers to source/import? Any chance some shipments of Brazillian beef “slips through” the protocols for expedience?
> _largely because screwworm outbreaks have weakened already diminished (US) cattle herds._
Now if a country was considering allowing the importing of US beef, you probably won’t introduce screwworm [an example that if an omnipotent God created all life for their divine purpose, he is a sick & evil motherfucker] from chilled processed beef carcasses alone, rather than from live cattle, hides and other offal, but why would you take the risk? No US meat processor is going to guarantee their product against that risk.
Then you get the full agro-socialist playbook of protectionism from the very same guys whose corporate economic model is SovCit independence plus regular Federal pay checks.
> _"high prices are “the fault of politicians who have allowed BRICS-aligned entities to dominate the meat industry, that participate in price fixing…”_
So BRICS etc are conspiring to artificially inflate prices for beef for the US consumer? Whilst at very same time.
> _" … allowing these (BRICS-aligned) entities to flood the market with cheaper, lower-quality imports."_
All the while watching the demographics of their customer base desert them in terms of supply, price and preference. Whither “Where’s the beef?”.
> _beyond discouraging shoppers from purchasing beef, rising prices have strengthened the case for plant-based proteins. Some 58 percent of those polled said that beef’s current costs were an either somewhat or very convincing reason to choose a nonmeat alternative, rising to 60 percent among Gen Zers surveyed._
Making some sort of business case that without an export market for US soyabeans, in the spirit of rampant nationalism, the US government should acquire the entire crop and use TVP to keep the price of US beef affordable. Tofu to feed the way to MAGA.
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### Author:  [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)
#### Post date: [October 24, 2025, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/445 "2025-10-24T00:14:14Z")
> [@penultima\_thule](#):
>
> largely because screwworm outbreaks have weakened already diminished (US) cattle herds.
Why did you insert “US” into that quote? Screwworms are not affecting US cattle.
[https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/cattle/ticks/screwworm](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/cattle/ticks/screwworm)
> On August 1, CDC notified USDA of a case of New World Screwworm (NWS) in a traveler returning from Central America. **There have been no detections in U.S. livestock** , and the **risk to domestic animals and wildlife remains low**. There is **no evidence of further exposure** beyond this individual case.
Further, on Wikipedia:
> **[Cochliomyia hominivorax](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cochliomyia_hominivorax)**
>
> Cochliomyia hominivorax, the New World screwworm fly, New World screwworm (NWS) or simply screwworm or screw-worm, is a species of parasitic blowfly whose larvae (maggots) eat the living tissue of warm-blooded animals. It is present in the New World tropics. Of the four species of Cochliomyia, only C. hominivorax is parasitic; a single parasitic species of Old World screwworm fly is placed in a different genus (Chrysomya bezziana). Infestation of a live vertebrate animal by a maggot is scie The...
[ ](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/48/Cochliomyia_hominivorax_distribution_en.svg/1024px-Cochliomyia_hominivorax_distribution_en.svg.png)
Clearly, the article is talking about herds in South America being diminished, not the US.
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### Author:  [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)
#### Post date: [October 24, 2025, 12:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/446 "2025-10-24T00:34:20Z")
> [@Atamasama](#):
>
> Why did you insert “US” into that quote? Screwworms are not affecting US cattle.
The exact quote from Newslink is:
> The price of beef, alongside other everyday essentials, [has soared this year](https://www.newsweek.com/gen-z-turns-to-plant-based-alternatives-as-beef-prices-soar-10789717) largely because screwworm outbreaks have weakened already diminished cattle herds.
The price rises referred to are US.
The diminished herds referred to are US.
The driving cause referenced is ambiguous.
Concur that the northward advance of screwworm has been held in check for some time by an extensive baiting program in Central America by the US.
But on 25th July:
> **[Texas is launching new traps to help fight off the New World Screwworm...](https://www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/texas-is-launching-new-traps-to-help-fight-off-the-new-world-screwworm-population/)**
>
> A flesh-eating parasite that once ravaged Texas livestock is creeping back—and the state is stepping it to stop it.
And on Oct 20th:
> **[Screwworm fly trap flap: Push for use of synthetic bait](https://www.agrinews-pubs.com/livestock/2025/10/20/screwworm-fly-trap-flap-push-for-use-of-synthetic-bait/)**
>
> USDA rejects Texas ag department's fly trap to prevent screwworm larvae from infecting cattle.
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### Author:  [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)
#### Post date: [October 24, 2025, 1:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/447 "2025-10-24T01:06:50Z")
> [@penultima\_thule](#):
>
> The price rises referred to are US.
> The diminished herds referred to are US.
> The driving cause referenced is ambiguous.
Per your own CBS source:
> A flesh-eating parasite that once ravaged Texas livestock is creeping back—and the state is stepping in to stop it.
I don’t know how it’s reducing American herds when it has been eradicated in the US, and efforts are being made to keep it from coming back. The cause is not from screwworm outbreaks, because they are not occurring in the US. The source you initially misquoted was saying that screwworm outbreaks are responsible for scarcity of beef _in general_, driving up the price due to scarcity. This being the SDMB, I felt obligated to push back against misinformation.
Granted, US herd sizes **are** reduced. That is true. This is from early last year:
> **[U.S. Cattle Inventory Smallest in 73 years](https://www.fb.org/market-intel/u-s-cattle-inventory-smallest-in-73-years)**
Note that while that data is from early 2024, that is because reports on cattle size are reported semi-anually by the USDA, so a new report won’t be until 2026.
> **[Cattle & Beef - Sector at a Glance | Economic Research Service](https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/animal-products/cattle-beef/sector-at-a-glance)**
> The USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) provides information on cattle inventory in its semi-annual [Cattle](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/h702q636h) reports.
The reason presented for the small herd size is attributed to higher input costs (things like feed for the cattle) which I assume is due to inflation and lingering supply chain disruptions from the pandemic, and climate change causing a drought. Per the Farm Bureau article:
> With drought and high input costs compelling farmers to market a higher-than-normal percentage of female cattle, the most recent cattle inventory dropped to lows not seen in decades.
Screwworm is not a part of the reduction in US herd sizes, though again I’m sure it’s affecting the total herd size in the Americas, which drives up prices.
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### Author:  [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)
#### Post date: [November 7, 2025, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/448 "2025-11-07T19:00:42Z")
I think we’re starting to see some results from Trump’s economic efforts.
If you click the third image at this link to bring up the “Percent of Balance 90+ Days Delinquent” chart:
> **[Household Debt and Credit Report](https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc)**
>
> Unique data and insight into the credit conditions and activity of U.S. households
We’re seeing Credit Card, Auto, Student Loan, and “Other” types of loans are now at similar levels to the 2009 mortgage crisis. (Mortgage and home equity credit both appear to be at lows.)
Housing debt - per the first chart that was initially shown on the page - is the majority of debt (roughly $13.5t versus $5t for non-housing) and, as just said, mortgage/home equity delinquencies are at record lows, so the likely impact of a crisis would be smaller than in 2009. Still, it’s showing that households are starting to struggle with their finances at a pretty high rate.
Likewise, we’re starting to see Trump’s approval rating drop - though that could be due to the shutdown, airport outages, SNAP credit losses, etc.
In general, the government responses would be to 1) lower the Fed rate, and 2) hire blue collar workers into government jobs, breaking windows. The latter was already pre-arranged via the Big Beautiful Bill, setting up the government as a competitor for low-education labor against manufacturers who might want to re-shore back to the US. Of course, government jobs would either be temporary or, worse, unionized and difficult to roll back, shafting us with a glut of professional window breakers and driving up the yield of treasury bonds as the US government outspends revenue trying to support all those workers.
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### Author:  [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)
#### Post date: [November 7, 2025, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/449 "2025-11-07T20:53:14Z")
Trump is going to go down as the worst president for jobs, by a couple of country miles.
His first term ended with a massive surge in unemployment; now, that was due to Covid, but it doesn’t change the statistics.
As for his second term?
> [@](#):
>
> Consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas issued a bleak report: It said that U.S. companies’ job-cut announcements nearly tripled to 153,074 in October from 54,064 in September, with companies citing cost-cutting and artificial intelligence.
>
> This means American employers have now announced 1,099,500 job cuts so far this year, up 65% from the first 10 months last year, the consulting firm said. This is the highest figure for year-to-date announcements since 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic caused nearly twice as many layoffs, Challenger said.
(Note that the Wall Street Journal is citing a private company because the U.S. isn’t providing labor statistics. It’s such a complete shit show)
> **[What One Bleak Data Point Tells Us About the Labor Market — The Wall Street...](https://apple.news/AVVStm7VOTPS4kX2b6GZwGg)**
>
> Government shutdown is halting official labor numbers, leaving still-unsettled picture
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### Author:  [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)
#### Post date: [November 7, 2025, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/450 "2025-11-07T20:55:37Z")
> [@Moriarty](#):
>
> Trump is going to go down as the worst president for jobs, by a couple of country miles.
Pretty sure he’s got a ways to go before he hits Hoover-esque numbers
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### Author:  [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)
#### Post date: [November 7, 2025, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/451 "2025-11-07T21:11:16Z")
> [@JohnT](#):
>
> Pretty sure he’s got a ways to go before he hits Hoover-esque numbers
Probably accurate, but Trump is actively and continually trying to actually fire people himself, as if he set a goal to try to beat Hoover.
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### Author:  [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)
#### Post date: [November 7, 2025, 11:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/452 "2025-11-07T23:12:08Z")
Since Trump is both the 45th and 47th President, he going for being the worst _two_ presidents.
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### Author:  [@Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackknifed_Juggernaut)
#### Post date: [November 7, 2025, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/453 "2025-11-07T23:30:01Z")
The only reason that unemployment isn’t skyrocketing is that immigration has essentially been shut off. That means US companies aren’t getting the actual talent they need to grow. And the stock market is a smokescreen, which is apparent when you strip out the Mag 7 companies. And those 7 are mostly just selling to each other, and investing their capital into AI. The S&P493 growth is actually feeble. And even those are still the largest companies in the US. Smaller public and private companies are suffering. The economy is a house of cards and not sustainable.
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### Author:  [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)
#### Post date: [November 8, 2025, 2:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/454 "2025-11-08T14:22:29Z")
> [@Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](#):
>
> And those 7 are mostly just selling to each other, and investing their capital into AI.
The biggest hazard in the American (and really, world) economy right now. Investment that does not actually _produce_ but is just a doubled down bet.
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### Author:  [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)
#### Post date: [November 8, 2025, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/455 "2025-11-08T15:58:39Z")
The ADP jobs report is also showing that employment numbers plateaued at the start of the year and haven’t budged. Usually, the number grows with the population count.
The previous extended plateau was in the months leading up to the pandemic unemployment spike:
> **[ADP Employment Reports](https://adpemploymentreport.com/)**
>
> The ADP Research Institute® works in close collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab and its experienced team of labor market researchers to publish employment reports.
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### Author:  [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)
#### Post date: [December 8, 2025, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/456 "2025-12-08T17:16:56Z")
We continue to see the impact of Trump’s economy. He’s paying farmers to try to make up for the markets he destroyed.
> **[White House to roll out $12 billion farm package](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5638555-trump-unveils-farmer-assistance/amp/)**
>
> President Trump is slated to roll out a $12 billion farm aid package Monday, according to a White House official. The aid includes $11 billion in one-time payments to crop farmers as a part of the…
We’ve been here before.
[https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2019/12/31/790261705/farmers-got-billions-from-taxpayers-in-2019-and-hardly-anyone-objected](https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2019/12/31/790261705/farmers-got-billions-from-taxpayers-in-2019-and-hardly-anyone-objected)
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### Author:  [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)
#### Post date: [December 8, 2025, 10:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/457 "2025-12-08T22:58:52Z")
> [@Moriarty](#):
>
> He’s paying farmers to try to make up for the markets he destroyed.
He can probably count on his Base “not remembering” that this happened in his first term, too (whether via willful ignoring of facts, or actual absent-mindedness).
Meanwhile China is making out just FINE:
> **[Steve Rattner (@steverattner.bsky.social)](https://bsky.app/profile/steverattner.bsky.social/post/3m7iwgmj56s23)**
>
> Despite Trump’s tariffs, China’s goods trade surplus topped $1 trillion in the first 11 months of 2025. Meanwhile, the US trade deficit continues to widen.
>
> cc: @bloomberg.com
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### Author:  [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)
#### Post date: [December 9, 2025, 12:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/458 "2025-12-09T00:35:36Z")
The farmers won’t see this as welfare, and will support him with the same misled vigor that they always have for Republicans.
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### Author:  [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)
#### Post date: [December 9, 2025, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/459 "2025-12-09T01:05:12Z")
Just like when farmers lost workers because of fear of ICE, they didn’t blame Trump for persecuting migrants, but rather they blamed Democrats for scaring people.
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### Author:  [@Tatterdemalion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tatterdemalion)
#### Post date: [December 9, 2025, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-trump-recession/1014592/460 "2025-12-09T02:19:18Z")
There’s a youtube channel called Farm to Taber by a woman who is a farmer, and a Democrat. Her explanation as to why farmers voted for Trump is that it’s easier to cash a check than to actually grow things, and the immigration crackdown is helping to keep farm wages low.
[ ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=badGHJLDpP8)
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